Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 2

a reply to: Xcathdra


Does anyone else here watch the Tube channel "Inside Russia"?



He also had a short disappearance around the same time as my other concern, a (not 180) change in theme, a sudden change in location when he returned, that he is now wearing headphones and that he's been wearing the same shirt for over a week since he returned?

My CT side is screaming about this one too, not as much because of a radical change in opinions, but come on ... same shirt for over a week?

There was apparantly a HIMARS attack on a railway station in russian occupied territory near Donetsk city in a small suburb called Yasinovataya.

Early 'reports' on telegram were a large russian supply train on fire.

Some telegram milbloggers seem to think it was 2 huge trains packed with russian equipment, ammo and troops, and that they are still burning out of control several hours later.

I can't find any reports of this attack on any trusted site, please let us know if you see anything from a normally trusted source about Yasinovataya.

22 September Update

Key Takeaways

* The Kremlin’s heavy-handed approach to partial mobilization may successfully meet the Kremlin’s internal quota of mobilized personnel, but is unlikely to generate effective soldiers and is prompting significant domestic backlash for little gain.

* The Kremlin is openly not adhering to its promised conditions for partial mobilization.

* Kremlin quotas will likely force local officials to mobilize men regardless of their military status and will likely incentivize the mobilization of ethnically non-Russian and immigrant communities at a disproportionate rate.

* The Kremlin likely attempted to downplay a prisoner swap with Ukraine that is deeply unpopular among Russian nationalists and milbloggers by undertaking the swap the same day Putin announced partial mobilization.

* IAEA negotiations around the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant are unlikely to significantly improve the situation at the plant and may provide an opportunity for Russian forces to stage provocations.

* Ukrainian forces likely continued limited counteroffensive operations along the Kharkiv-Luhansk Oblast border and continued attacks toward Lyman on September 22.

* Ukrainian military officials maintained their operational silence regarding Ukrainian ground attacks in Kherson Oblast on September 22 and reiterated that Ukrainian forces are conducting an operational-level interdiction campaign in Kherson Oblast.

* Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the frontlines in Donetsk Oblast on September 22.

* Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed ground attacks west of Hulyaipole on September 22 and continued routine strikes throughout western Zaporizhia Oblast.

* Russian occupation forces are hurriedly setting conditions to hold sham annexation referenda across occupied Ukraine from September 23-27.

* Russian officials created polling stations in parts of Russia, ostensibly to enable displaced (in many cases meaning kidnapped) Ukrainian residents of occupied territories to “vote.”

* Russian occupation officials in Ukraine likely expect to be forced to provide personnel to meet Russian regional mobilization quotas after the Kremlin illegally annexes occupied Ukrainian territories.

More at URL above.

Cheers

a reply to: MidnightWatcher


Cant find more than this, train had T-62 tank`s it seems...


A train full of t-62 tanks rolled up to the train station in Yasinovataya, next to Donetsk city, and then moments later the station exploded

About 50 year old tanks ...

a reply to: Silcone Synapse

Yeah, a million poorly supplied troops.

That means a lot of civilians in the area will die of hunger or exposure.

Cheers

originally posted by: Kenzo
a reply to: MidnightWatcher


Cant find more than this, train had T-62 tank`s it seems...


A train full of t-62 tanks rolled up to the train station in Yasinovataya, next to Donetsk city, and then moments later the station exploded

About 50 year old tanks ...

Thank you Kenzo!


The maps show quite a few rail lines at that station, I wonder if it spread to another train?

Or maybe a 2nd attack?

I'm just speculating of course, but I have a specific curiosity about this event.

a reply to: Kenzo

The older tanks can serve two purposes.

One is as direct fire support for infantry. 115-mm high explosive shells make quite a bang. And the older tanks are easier to operate, something useful for the Donbas militiamen.

The tanks could also function as mobile artillery pieces. Not as efficient as dedicated self propelled artillery, but they can provide indirect fire.

Cheers

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2


Any idea how much Russia has those older tanks, ones that are in condition that can be used ?

a reply to: Kenzo

None. They don't even show up in listings given by organizations like IISS.

Cheers

originally posted by: F2d5thCavv2
a reply to: Kenzo

None. They don't even show up in listings given by organizations like IISS.

Cheers

Somewhere between 1 burning train load and 10,000, which is their 1990 report of 11,300 in inventory minus the 1300 believed to have been destroyed recently.

a reply to: MidnightWatcher

I wonder if Russia is trying to use old gear like T-62s to get the Ukrainians to expend their modern ATGM stocks. Very hard on the tank crews if that is the case.

Cheers

They seems to have a lot in storage, but it`s another thing how many are in condition that can be used..


How many tanks does Russia really have?


google translate

a reply to: Kenzo

Next they'll drag out the broken ones and put them in fixed positions as steel pillboxes.

Germans did that in final years of the Second World War.

Cheers

a reply to: Kenzo

thing about all their restored or potential for restoring are all of the jack in the box turret design.
not really good for modern combat. they only have two designs now that aren't, those are the T90M and T14.

my understanding that the T90's still shows vulnerability the the turret issue but not as bad as the rest.
i also understand that most of their problems with their tanks is the love affair with the T72 which they used many design features for the new tanks built after the 72's.

and from what i read the T14 cost to much, and their having problem building now.

originally posted by: F2d5thCavv2

Next they'll drag out the broken ones and put them in fixed positions as steel pillboxes.

Terrain plays a role in how effective static defensive positions are in combat. The German defenders used the mountainous country to their advantage in the Italian Campaign (WW2). Stationary tanks, probably in concealed positions, were nasty surprises for the allied attackers.

But Iraqi tanks stationed in the desert were destroyed by coalition air power during the 1991 Gulf War.

Moreover, Ukraine's impressive manoeuvre warfare capabilities, the absence of the Russian Air Force, and Ukraine's geography suggest the writing is on the wall. Putin's regime dispatching reinforcements to Ukraine is an act of mass homicide. But Russia's actions and atrocities in Ukraine are why I am not troubled by the issue.

So Russia dispatching poorly equipped static units to Ukraine will prolong the war for six months (my estimation).

a reply to: BernnieJGato


I would assume Russia dont have many T-14 build yet, and with sanctions etc their planned production 2022 is probably difficult task . There was report 2 years ago that one T-14 was destroyed in Syria , but not sure was it true .

Did Russia's New Armata T-14 'Die' in Syria?

To clarify my previous comment concerning how I feel about Russian reinforcements destined for Ukraine. Of course, once those units enter Ukraine, they face destruction or dark historical stains from serving with Russian forces. But there is another possible aspect worth considering from this situation.

Once the cadre units have access to military equipment, they might turn against Putin's regime. How these people face, the choice between serving in Ukraine or combat operations in Russia is a grim choice. Only those in that situation can make that decision and obey their conscience.

At the risk of sounding eccentric, I am glad that I don't face such a scenario, thanks to my place of birth and where I live in the present.

a reply to: xpert11

Russian army fell apart in 1917. But that was after three years of war.

'Course, events move at a swifter pace these days due to better communications means.

Cheers