Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 2

originally posted by: Kenzo
a reply to: AngryCymraeg


I dont know Chinese doctrine . Maybe someone knows better Chinese military issues . The big question is can their commanders handle whole entirety of what war operation requires, logistic playing along with ground forces etc...

The PLA is full of praise for itself, but its actual performance in battle hasn't been that impressive. Vietnam ground them up pretty badly in 1979. They've scrapped with the Indians a couple of times. Hard to say much about those battles because the terrain was so extreme. When they squared off against the Soviets in the 1960s, the USSR did better. Today? Hard to say, but I wager they have the same fears of allowing subordinates too much initiative that Russia's force suffers from.

Cheers

Maybe this is where RT has disappeared to....

a reply to: Freeborn

Or Putin had him shot for his pathetic attempts at propaganda ...........

Speak the Truth recently got married and is currently elk hunting. Latest update from 3 days ago.



War in Ukraine - last update is from Sept 15.



Denys Davydov is a Ukrainian who also does updates. Good info but as with everything trust but verify. He is quick to update Ukrainian actions while Speak the Truth waits for confirmation from his sources.




Can't stand MSNBS or Chris Hayes but he is covering Russian state media openly arguing where they are actually questioning the war. For those that follow Speak the Truth this info re: Russian tv pundits is nothing new as he covers it.


This link is to Artur Rehi's youtube channel (Estonian soldier). He has been covering the setbacks Russia is now having a bit more.
www.youtube.com...

His latest update

originally posted by: F2d5thCavv2
The PLA is full of praise for itself, but its actual performance in battle hasn't been that impressive.

Au contraire, the PLA is very impressive at repression of civilians and keeping their masters in control. Very efficient.

Talking of the Chinese. Saw a vid that showed Chinese mortar rounds in all the stuff Ukraine had captured recently, suggesting Chinese are supporting Russia. Seemed legit.

originally posted by: Kenzo
a reply to: gortex

Some claim Wagner forcibly recruiting also


Wagner mercenaries forcibly recruiting Russian prisoners for war, reports Russia media SOTA


Imagine the feeling of taken forcibly to meat grinder , as cannon fodder .

I've heard the fatality rate for these prisoner units high, since they are used as "shock troops". At 7:30 this video says "Studies claim only 10% of the convicts who joined Russia's war in Ukraine in mid- July were still alive by early September". You can also hear the recruiter's speech (and see a translation) saying things like if you try to run you'll be shot, and no raping anything, etc.

So I wondered how many of the 90% who didn't live were shot trying to run away.

a reply to: paraphi



"the PLA is very impressive at repression of civilians"

Tiananmen Massacre tanks and heavy machine guns attest to that.






"Very efficient"

Tiananmen Square fire hoses and sewers.

originally posted by: paraphi

originally posted by: F2d5thCavv2
The PLA is full of praise for itself, but its actual performance in battle hasn't been that impressive.

Au contraire, the PLA is very impressive at repression of civilians and keeping their masters in control. Very efficient.

Talking of the Chinese. Saw a vid that showed Chinese mortar rounds in all the stuff Ukraine had captured recently, suggesting Chinese are supporting Russia. Seemed legit.

I saw the same thing, but there's long been a low cost black market in that part of the world for chinese weapons like that, so it's not really evidence of chinese support for russia during this war yet.

a reply to: paraphi

Russia has become the number one weapons supplier to Ukraine. They captured so much stuff they are having problems moving it into their supply chain.


all though i think its just a matter of time until the Russians remove Putin

www.newsweek.com...

Sept 18th

18 September Update

Key Takeaways

* Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be increasingly relying on irregular, poorly trained ad-hoc volunteer and proxy units rather than attempting to rebuild damaged or destroyed conventional Russian ground forces units.

* Ukrainian forces continue to consolidate positions on the east bank of the Oskil River in Kharkiv Oblast despite Russian efforts to contain them.

* Russian forces in western Kherson Oblast may be attempting to fall back to more defensible positions in a controlled withdrawal to avoid the chaotic retreat that characterized the collapse of Russian defenses in Kharkiv earlier in September.

* Russian forces suffered devastating losses of manpower and equipment in their fight for eastern Ukraine and especially during the Ukrainian Kharkiv counter-offensive. Multiple Russian armored and mechanized units have likely been effectively destroyed according to assessments released on September 18.

More at URL above.

Cheers

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

Yeeh the big issue with Russian units been they dont seem to be able work as should independently, if PLA has same issues it`s something that would downgrade abilitys ..

a reply to: Kenzo

Both governments fear empowering people other than a select few. Having a competent NCO corps requires empowering the NCOs to get things done without officers around.

Cheers

* - Russian army hit 2 infrastructure objects in Zaporizhzhia in a missile strike

* - Russian army launched at least 8 missiles against infrastructure objects in Zaporizhzhia, missiles were launched from Zaporizhzhia region

* - President Volodymyr Zelenskyy assured: what may seem like a lull today is actually preparation for a new series of victories

* - As a result of the explosion in the center of Melitopol, collaborator Denys Stefankov was killed (I think he was the Russian appointed Mayor)

* - 2 shelling in Sumy region today, total 52 shells. In Volfyne man was killed as result of Russian shelling

* - There are casualties as result of Russian shelling in Nikopol district

* - Explosions reported at Russian military base in Kherson

* - Hostel destroyed in Bilmak as result of shelling from the direction of Husarka(to the west)

* - At Pivdenny Buh direction Russian army shelled areas all along frontline, including at Trudolyubivka, Petrivka, Bila Krynytsa, Lozove, Blahodativka, Shyroke, Partyzanske, Ternovi Pody, Lymany, Myrne and Tavriyske, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine says in the morning report

* - At Zaporizhzhia direction Russian army shelled Kamyanske, Stepove, Orikhiv, Huliaipilske, Bilohirya, Olhivske, Temyrivka, Novosilka, Neskuchne, Velyka Novosilka, Prechystivka, Vuhledar, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine says in the morning report

* - At Avdiivka direction Russian army shelled Kamyanka, Avdiivka, Vodiane, Opytne and Krasnohorivka, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine says in the morning report

* - At Kramatorsk direction Russian army shelled Raihorodok, Ozerne, Piskunivka, Kryva Luka, Sieversk, Mykolaivka, Verkhniokamyanske, Spirne and Vesele, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine says in the morning report

* - At Bakhmut direction Russian army shelled Rozdolivka, Bilohorivka, Yakovlivka, Soledar, Bakhmutske, Bakhmut, Vesela Dolyna, Zaitseve, Odradivka, Mykolaivka Druha, Mayorsk and New York, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine says in the morning report

* - At Kharkiv direction Russian army shelled Kozacha Lopan, Hoptivka, Strilecha, Vysoka Yaruha, Vovchansk, Hatysche, Budarky, Dvorichna, Kupyansk, Kamyanka, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine says in the morning report

* - At Sieversk direction Russian artillery shelled Huta-Studenetska of Chernihiv region, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine says in the morning report

* - Ukrainian aviation conducted 13 airstrikes against Russian military and equipments gatherings, 3 positions of air defense units. Air defense shot down 5 UAVs and Ka-52 helicopter. Ukrainian artillery and missile troops conducted strikes against over 200 targets, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine says in the morning report

* - Ukrainian military repelled Russian attacks near Mykhailivka Druha, Vesela Dolyna, Odradivka, Maryinka, Novomykhailivka and Pravdyne, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine says in the morning report

* - Russian army conducted 6 missile strikes, 28 air strikes, over 90 shelling with MLRS against military and civilian infrastructure in over 30 settlements across Ukraine, including Kharkiv, Dvorichna, Kamyanka, Krasnohorivka, Novomykhailivka, Neskuchne, Uspenivka, Myrolyubivka, Bilyaivka, Vysokopillia, Mykolaiv, Zaporizhzhia, Chuhuiv and Kramatorsk, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine says in the morning report

* - 4 medics killed, 2 patients wounded as Russian army shelled mental hospital in Strilecha village during evacuation

* - Russian base destroyed as result of explosion in Svatove

* - Occupation authorities in Donetsk region say 1 Ukrainian POW killed, 4 wounded as result of shelling at Olenivka prison

* - Destruction in Kramatorsk as result of overnight shelling

As a reminder

Just so people know and understand. Information from war zones can become confusing as there will no doubt be info released from the players (on both sides) involved that might not necessarily be true.

As such take everything as a possibility and NOT as absolute truth.

The very first casualty in a war is the truth and all warfare is based on deception

Resources - Where most of the updates come from.
* - Flightradar24 - tracks flights worldwide
* - Live Ukraine control map 1 - updates on the ground
* - Ukraine Control Map 2
* - Ship radar
* - Military vessel tracker
* - Institute for the Study of War (ISW)
* - Stopfake - Countering Russian propaganda about Ukraine
* - MilitaryLand - Maps

Youtube resources -
* - Speak the Truth
* - War in Ukraine
* - Artur Rehi - Estonain soldier
* - Daily Report

Social media resources -
* - Twitter - Jomini of the West - Battlefield Maps

Not sure the importance of this talk but...

Russian military reporters and fighters discussing the probability of Russia withdrawing from Kherson

originally posted by: Kenzo

Not sure the importance of this talk but...

Russian military reporters and fighters discussing the probability of Russia withdrawing from Kherson

I've been seeing a lot of subtle signs in the last 48 hours that russia is finally starting to come grips with the fact that their heavy equipment is hopelessly trapped and are preparing to evacuate as many soldiers as possible so they don't see a repeat of what Ukraine did to them in Kharkiv.

This is exactly what the Ukrainian strategy there was intended to produce.

Probably also why russian propagandists are pushing the NATO troops and mercenaries nonsense again in the last 24 hours, they are trying to reduce the inevitable anger russian citizens will have towards russian leaders after what happens to them in Kherson.

These are much more positive signs than the false reports of Ukrainian recon engaged in battles inside Kherson.

Russia surrendering Kherson and the neighboring Oblast opens the door wide for Ukraine to make a move against Crimea. Is it me or does it seem Putin is giving up in Ukraine and on life in general? I know the politicians demanding Putin be removed and charged with treason are from the Moscow and St. Petersberg regions, which has to be a hard blow to Putin as those 2 areas is where his main support comes from.

ETA - also I am seeing reports that Russia has had to withdraw missiles from Kaliningrad to transfer them to the Ukraine region.

a reply to: MidnightWatcher


They are trapped in the North bank of Dnepr river.

Russians in their homeland might get more angry later if they would not evacuate, so maybe they are thinking about this now..

originally posted by: Xcathdra
ETA - also I am seeing reports that Russia has had to withdraw missiles from Kaliningrad to transfer them to the Ukraine region.

All i can visualize is putler throwing all the cutlery from a kitchen draw at a picture of ukraine on the wall, first the knives, then the forks, then the spoons in ascending size, now hes down to random pairs of unused wooden chopsticks and plastic yoghurt spoons and corn cob holders... next it'll be the odd old drinking straw and rusty corkscrew he thought he had thrown out 20 years earlier... and eventually the draw itself with a sobbing weak verbal bleet of frustration.

Not sure how they'd get people out of Kherson, I mean they've been trying for weeks and attempts just get sunk or blown up (werent they trying helicopters at one point?)... they'll either get far less than they thought out (and i dont think ruZZians actually care about their soldiers enough to even attempt a proper rescue), or it'll be a one sided blood bath, more than likely something in between.

Part of me says let em all leave to cement potential dissidence and refusal back home, the other part says bomb them till the river runs red or they'll all just come back again latter.

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

Russia's regular armed forces are listed as two million plus reservists. They don't seem to have used them yet, they are also giving troops tours of duty in Ukraine. They could have carpet bombed a road to Kyiv. But have not, I would suggest that they are saving the main pieces for the main event. Green troops are a liability. So far what has unfolded has been predictable. Russian Sanctions Europes energy concerns. I would start to get worried when they start calling the reservists up. Then a little later recall embassy staff.

a reply to: BigfootNZ


Soldiers can swim or small craft across the narrower section of river closer to Kherson, but their heavy equipment is hopelessly trapped.