Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 2

originally posted by: MidnightWatcher

originally posted by: F2d5thCavv2
a reply to: Kenzo

1st Guards Tank Army.

Cheers

Aren't they also responsible for defending moscow from angry russians demanding a new leader?

Reportedly, they were the counter-attack force to protect Moscow from an invasion by NATO.

That they were committed to the Ukraine war is evidence that the authorities in Moscow don't actually fear an invasion by the few brigades NATO has in eastern-central Europe.

The nonsense announced by the Russian state is getting piled higher and deeper.

Cheers

originally posted by: Kenzo


Another ex-soviet union border gunfight, that makes total ex-soviet countrys 4 countrys in this week .....


Gunfire Erupts Along Volatile Kyrgyz-Tajik Border

Could be related to Russia-Ukraine war ?

Wedding celebration.



Cheers

a reply to: xpert11

The Republic of Korea was a -very- flawed democracy in 1950. Yet, the UN fought in its behalf. The statements made today about Ukraine and its various issues are just reformatted Russian propaganda. I wager, that without Moscow-inspired subversion from within and invasion from without, Kyiv can probably develop into something like a typical western European state in a couple of decades.

The issues in different EU states and their curious policies regarding Russia ... well, I could go on for a while on that, but it deserves a thread(s) of its own. Suffice it to say the political evolution of the EU has gone awry.

Cheers

a reply to: Kenzo www.theatlantic.com... only article ive found that seems decently written and not sensationalist on the whole nuke issue the TLDR of it is basically short of putin doing a "nuclear test" in his own country not many options are actualy likely for use of actual nuclear weapons

yeah above ground tests are illegal as all hell but hasnt stopped nk from doing below ground ones,what are we gonna do sanction russia more.

Scott Sagan, a co-director of the Center for International Security and Cooperation, at Stanford University, believes that the risk of Russia using a nuclear weapon has declined in the past month, as the fighting has shifted to southern Ukraine. Putin is unlikely to contaminate territory he’s hoping to seize with radioactive fallout. And a warning shot, such as the detonation of a nuclear weapon harmlessly over the Black Sea, would serve little purpose, Sagan says. It would signal irresolution, not resolve—a conclusion that the United States reached half a century ago about the potential utility of a NATO demonstration strike to deter the Red Army. Sagan concedes that if Russia were to lose major battles in the Donbas, or if a Ukrainian counteroffensive seemed on the verge of a great victory, Putin might well order the use of a nuclear weapon to obtain a surrender or a cease-fire. In response, depending on the amount of damage caused by the nuclear explosion, Sagan would advocate American conventional attacks on Russian forces in Ukraine, Russian ships in the Black Sea, or even military targets inside Russia, such as the base from which the nuclear strike was launched.

i dont know if hes right about it taking "a few weeks to blow over" but the guy was a pretty key member of the cold war nuke team back in the day

a reply to: RalagaNarHallas


That`s very good article about it, give me chill`s ..


There seems to be no happy outcomes if Putin uses nuclear weapon. The article mention that there was still some decent people in Russian nuclear forces, hopefully there are and they would be against such evil moves if Putin orders it.

ruZZia state media still flaling... it now appears Ukrainians arent winning their war...

twitter.com...

Its all the Poles, Brits and Americans that are winning it for them...

Because the Ukrainians could never be capable fighters. The funny thing is, if the Ukrainians are according to the ruZZians, ruZZian... then wouldnt that by reductive logic mean the ruZZians themselves cant fight a war or are capable fighters either? The thing that makes me laugh though the most is they are once again basically saying yeah we are loosing but at least its not to them, the same way they would rather say their incompetent (the smoking around ammo dump explosions) than admit they got hit by the enemy, they will liberality change the narrative on a dime and say with out saying their idiots simply to save face at that exact moment (I thought all the NATO forces were soft skinned LGBT wokesters who the ruZZians would stomp into the dirt instantly in a fight? But are now the reason the ruZZians are loosing ground)... their mindset is so god damn childish its insane.

The copium and blamium is being consumed at an alarming rate in moscow it seems, supplies might be running out soon.

originally posted by: Kenzo
a reply to: RalagaNarHallas

That`s very good article about it, give me chill`s ..

There seems to be no happy outcomes if Putin uses nuclear weapon. The article mention that there was still some decent people in Russian nuclear forces, hopefully there are and they would be against such evil moves if Putin orders it.

I look at the nuclear outcome with an ounce of positivity, yes if it ever happened the response would be swift and awesome, and im using the word awesome in its original ancient context, back when the word awe was more along the lines of terrifying... but in its aftermath I think no human would ever willingly and purposefully use a nuke ever again... Hiroshima and Nagasaki put the fear into us that still lingers today, and that was only two small ones, a modern version would scar humanities ancestral memory for century's. So there would be some good from it... not that it has to happen.

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2


Do you know if putin's presence in sochi is unusual?

a reply to: xpert11


I've always suspected that those Bushmasters were among the spearhead element near Kharkiv, but haven't had any evidence until now.

6:30 of this video shows a well worn Bushmaster with it's proud crew 'somewhere in the Kharkiv region'.

They appear to be using it as the designers intended now.

youtu.be...

a reply to: BigfootNZ

The Rand corporation put out a paper a few years back, that debated the problems with regards to provoking Russia. All the plans for hindering Russia have been put into operation, they also knew it was possible that it could backfire but they went ahead anyway. Baiting the bear does not make you the good guys. www.bitchute.com...

a reply to: anonentity


"Provoking russia"?

Did you really just say those words?

By building imaginary weapons labs for Ukrainian nazis?

Or by standing in the path of russian bullets as they invade a country to steal it's territory?

Does anyone have a way to verify or debunk the unconfirmed reports of russia's entire sub fleet fleeing Crimea today?

originally posted by: anonentity

The Rand corporation put out a paper a few years back, that debated the problems with regards to provoking Russia. All the plans for hindering Russia have been put into operation, they also knew it was possible that it could backfire but they went ahead anyway. Baiting the bear does not make you the good guys.

Do you think EU would ever even think of invading Russia if Russia just wanted to sell its energy? Even with Ukraine, do you think anyone would want to invade Russia ever? Maybe the Chinese, but there is no threat to Russia.

a reply to: MidnightWatcher


It does look like they are moving them out from Crimea


Russia relocates subs

Russian Navy Kilo Class Submarines Retreating From Crimea

originally posted by: MidnightWatcher
a reply to: F2d5thCavv2


Do you know if putin's presence in sochi is unusual?

No idea. My impression is he is mostly Moscow-bound. There was a report a week ago or so that he would go to Kaliningrad as part of a remembrance ceremony for the Second World War, but I never saw anything indicating he actually went there.

Cheers

14 September Update

Key Takeaways

* Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin is being established as the face of the Russian “special military operation” in Ukraine.

* Russian forces likely targeted Ukrainian hydrotechnical infrastructure in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast in order to interfere with Ukraine’s ability to operate across the Inhulets River

* The Ukrainian counteroffensive in eastern Kharkiv Oblast continues to degrade Russian forces and threaten Russian artillery and air defenses.

* Russian and Ukrainian sources reported Ukrainian ground attacks in northern Kherson Oblast, western Kherson Oblast, and northwest of Kherson City but did not report any major gains.

* Russian forces continued ground attacks around Bakhmut and northwest and southwest of Donetsk City.

* Funding volunteer battalions is likely placing financial strain on Russian cities and oblasts.

* Russian occupation authorities shut off mobile internet in occupied Luhansk Oblast on September 14, likely to preserve Russian operational security and better control the information environment as Russian forces, occupation officials, and collaborators flee newly-liberated Kharkiv Oblast for Russian and Russian-controlled territories.

More at URL above.

Cheers

a reply to: Kenzo

Indicative that the Russian state expects combat action in Crimea.

Cheers

originally posted by: F2d5thCavv2

originally posted by: MidnightWatcher
a reply to: F2d5thCavv2


Do you know if putin's presence in sochi is unusual?

No idea. My impression is he is mostly Moscow-bound. There was a report a week ago or so that he would go to Kaliningrad as part of a remembrance ceremony for the Second World War, but I never saw anything indicating he actually went there.

Cheers

Thank you Cav!


I thought it was pretty unusual but wanted a more informed opinion, he was apparantly in Sochi today.

Sochi is the location that russia had been insisting on for any 'negotiations' earlier in the war so his presence there caught my attention, but I don't have any other information.

originally posted by: F2d5thCavv2
a reply to: Kenzo

Indicative that the Russian state expects combat action in Crimea.

Cheers

Could also mean they plan on more large missile barrages at civilian targets.

They're running out of just about every type of conventional missile with even a little bit of 'precision', but the sub launch tubes are all fully loaded.

The recent nightly attacks have each included a very large number of russia's 'best' remaining missiles, with only a few getting through to cause damage every night, they appear to be trying to exhaust Ukraine's supply of air defense missiles, and that could be disastrous.

a reply to: MidnightWatcher


Some of those Russian missile cost about 13 million $ each , and they have fired a lot them. The cost per Month must be high just from just missiles. Thought they use also other that have lower price tag .


Money in the air: Russia fired $100 million worth of cruise missiles at Ukraine in just one day, 7 out of 8 were shot down

The missile Kh-101 costs $13 million, Kalibr - $6.5 million, Iskander - $3 million, Onyx - $1.25 million, Kh-22 - $1 million, Tochka-U - $0.3 million

a reply to: Kenzo


That cost, when 95% are shot down, is part of the reason I think they are on an 'exhaust' rather than 'overwhelm' mission.

That and the near zero military value of their targets of course.

They fired a lot (a lot ×10) more than 8 that night, reporting is (probably intentionally) incomplete or delayed.






Also, have you seen any wild a$$ rumors about the French seizing a russian ship in the English Channel a couple hours before the sub deployment?

Apparantly making the rounds on a few disreputable and/or newly created channels.

Doesn't make any sense even if the French story is true though since the subs are trapped in the Black Sea.

The above may be my first ever pre-bunking attempt.