Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 2

originally posted by: Kenzo

I wonder what they are up to there ?

Village after village in Belgorod, Russia is being evacuated

They expect the Ukrainians to do to them what they did to Ukrainian civilians.

Cheers

a reply to: xpert11


It`s also more than logistic in this case . Russian telegram channels were reporting Ukrainian build up about Month, but still the recent counter offensive total failure for Russian forces, they left tons of tanks, ammunition etc .

I mean that the issues with in Russian armed forces seem to go so deep..

Interestingly, a number of Russian Telegram channels have been talking about a Ukrainian buildup in Kharkiv over the past month, but it appears Ukraine may still have achieved surprise today.

I want to highlight @RALee85 's point here that Russia knew about the Ukrainian buildup before the latest Battle of Kharkiv. So this appears less an intel failure than another example of the "ops-intel" failures that have plagued Russian planning & execution. 1/8

At every turn, Russia fails to make good decisions quickly.


This latest offensive showed how Russian forces are not responding as should.

You are right about logistic, it`s more important than stragedy ....but Russians seem to cause failures on their own . This is speculation from my side, we sill see how this ends and when

a reply to: ufoorbhunter

I think it may just be yet another indulgence in the national sport of throat-cutting, mate.

I agree with your observation that this conflict comes at an awkward time for Russia.

Cheers

One day after municipal deputies from 18 districts of Moscow and St Petersburg have signed a public statement demanding that Vladimir Putin resign, the Kremlin is coming out with a vaguely veiled threat:

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov: The line between legally criticising Russia's military campaign in Ukraine and falling foul of wartime censorship laws that carry penalties of up to 15 years in prison "is very, very thin"

www.theguardian.com... rth

Meanwhile...

List of Russian municipal deputies calling for Putin’s resignation grows to nearly 50, local official says

www.cnn.com...

UK intelligence: prestigious Russian army unit severely degraded in Kharkiv counteroffensive. Russia's 1st Guards Tank Army – designated to protect Moscow in case of attack and lead counterattacks against NATO countries – took part in the chaotic retreat from Kharkiv Oblast.

The losses suffered by the 1st Guards Tank Army, along with other units in Russia's Western Military District, will "take years to rebuild", says the U.K.'s Defense Intelligence said in its daily briefing.

twitter.com...

IZIUM/1330 UTC 13 SEP/ UK Intel discloses that the prestigious Russian 1st Guards’ Tank Army has been destroyed. This top-teir force is the largest single unit lost by Russia since World War II. Information is evolving, but captured RU troops may number in 10s of thousands.

twitter.com...

originally posted by: F2d5thCavv2
a reply to: ufoorbhunter

I think it may just be yet another indulgence in the national sport of throat-cutting, mate.

I agree with your observation that this conflict comes at an awkward time for Russia.

Cheers

Yes Cavv they do seem to like plenty of fighting over in the Amenian Azeri region. Just another day out there

Russian economy suffers from Putin

Ukrainian War Costing Russia a Billion US Dollars a Day, Driving Ever More Russians into Poverty, Aganbegyan Says

No food no fun


Notes From The Front: How The Russian Army Is Rotting From Within

From all these confessions we can draw only one conclusion, and it is both reassuring and very frightening: the Russian soldiers who refused to fight did so, not because they thought that this war is not right, but because they are losing. And they are losing because of corruption in the higher echelons of their command.

a reply to: WeDemBoyz


We haven't even started sending lend/lease gear yet, and that isn't how lend/lease works anyway.

Under lend/lease, only surviving equipment must be returned, and only surviving equipment that isn't returned must be paid for.

Equipment that is destroyed does not have to be paid for or returned

Same thing we once did for Europe.

And russia.

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2


I've been waiting about a week to type the last word of one of my earlier posts due to opsec.

That word is 'Melitopol'.

Melitipol is the Kupiansk of the south, and the last logistics hub that russia has in Ukraine. The entire russian force will likely collapse if they lose Melitipol.

I just saw the first report (from an unfamiliar source) that russians are now rapidly fleeing this city, which is probably a good idea based on what is coming for them.





ETA - Just saw another report from a different unfamiliar source of ongoing 'HIMARS' attacks on the massive air base at Melitipol in the past couple hours.

a reply to: MidnightWatcher

If they take Melitopol which they should they can then take Crimea because they can pummel the bridge leading to Crimea into rubble. Move up anti-ship missiles and kill the black sea fleet.

Even worse they are losing the Chechens as the tik tok warriors have been captured.

originally posted by: dragonridr
a reply to: MidnightWatcher

If they take Melitopol which they should they can then take Crimea because they can pummel the bridge leading to Crimea into rubble. Move up anti-ship missiles and kill the black sea fleet.

Even worse they are losing the Chechens as the tik tok warriors have been captured.

What's tic tac?



I think Ukraine is still preparing the ground in Melitipol, but the writing is on the wall.

Everyone was wondering where the HIMARS and SPG spearhead element would show up next, and now we know. As of this morning, they were pummeling Melitipol.

russia absolutely can't survive anywhere in Ukraine without Melitipol.

originally posted by: MidnightWatcher

originally posted by: dragonridr
a reply to: MidnightWatcher

If they take Melitopol which they should they can then take Crimea because they can pummel the bridge leading to Crimea into rubble. Move up anti-ship missiles and kill the black sea fleet.

Even worse they are losing the Chechens as the tik tok warriors have been captured.

What's tic tac?



I think Ukraine is still preparing the ground in Melitipol, but the writing is on the wall.

Everyone was wondering where the HIMARS and SPG spearhead element would show up next, and now we know. As of this morning, they were pummeling Melitipol.

russia absolutely can't survive anywhere in Ukraine without Melitipol.

Speaking of HIMARS, one was obliterated earlier in the night somewhere in Kharkiv.

There’s also a recent video showing a blast on power plant in Kharkiv. It’s pretty wicked. Both vids on telegram.

Had a blast effect kinda like the one in Beirut, Lebanon (not saying the energy is the same) just the effect in Kharkiv was crazy. Wonder what was used?

Russia knew for months where these plants were. Not a surprise they were just hit recently. And shows what capability lurks across the border and untapped. Can imagine if full mobilization occurs.


Confirmed also on ISW that Russian advancement earlier on Bakhmut in the east and getting encircled more.

Bakhmut is very heavily fortified and one of the keys in the east btw.

a reply to: Imhere


Have any evidence on the HIMARS hit?

Are you sure that wasn't Ukrainians making that false report after catching a bunch of your 'HIMARS hunter' spies?




But yes, we all saw the videos of russia's war crimes a few nights ago.

You must be so proud.

originally posted by: Imhere
Speaking of HIMARS, one was obliterated earlier in the night somewhere in Kharkiv.

I don't know how many HIMARS in Ukraine have actually been destroyed by Russia, but reports say that Russia is wasting very expensive cruise missiles destroying wooden decoys made to look like HIMARS:

Ukraine using wooden decoys to lure Russia into wasting its missiles – report

Ukraine is reportedly using wooden decoys of advanced US rocket systems to trick Russia into wasting its missiles on them.

According to The Washington Post, the decoy versions of US-supplied rocket launcher systems drew at least 10 Russian Kalibr cruise missiles, leading Ukraine to further boost its production of replicas, in an effort to lure Moscow into firing its expensive long-range missiles on fake targets.

“When the UAVs see the battery, it’s like a VIP target,” a senior Ukrainian official told the Washington Post newspaper, referring to the Russian drones that spot the long-range artillery replicas, transmitting the location of the dummy targets to its naval cruise missiles.

A US official said that Russia claimed to have destroyed more HIMARS than were sent to Ukraine, so if they were destroying decoys, that might explain the discrepancy.

Since the start of the war, Russia has repeatedly boasted that it destroyed many US-made missiles, including the long-range Himars missile systems, claims that the US has described as “patently false”.

“They’ve claimed to have hit more Himars than we have even sent,” one US diplomat, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told the Washington Post.

I imagine it's difficult for Russia to replace the wasted cruise missiles, since they need chips which Russia is having difficulty importing due to sanctions, plus Russia is taking a big financial hit due to the sanctions so even if they could get the chips, they don't have much surplus funds to spend on cruise missiles.

The War In Ukraine Youtube channel mentions economic collapse in Ukraine, but also in Russia, which may see mass layoffs soon, at time 14:20:

Many other sources also talk about the political pressure on Putin after the Kharkiv disaster, so if mass layoffs happen that pressure will increase.

originally posted by: MidnightWatcher
a reply to: Imhere


Have any evidence on the HIMARS hit?



But yes, we all saw the videos of russia's war crimes a few nights ago.

You must be so proud.

It’s on telegram as I stated. If I can find it, you can find it.

Spoiler alert, you won’t find it on CNN etc.

Moving on, nor will you find the atrocities on ethnic Russians there that have been on constant threat for past years. Many videos. The situation is sad all around. Not just “Russia, Russia, Russia”

For example,

What you will find is evidence on Ukraine Reddit.

Go on Ukraine Reddit and read some of the comments yourself and the reply’s getting liked/supported.

Posts such as waiting for Crimea to be taken over soon and kicking out ethnic Russians completely out.

Observations such as even a self proclaimed Croatian (clearly a radical one) posting on there getting many likes how they had the problem in the Yugoslavian war.

Where they kicked out (massacred villages) of ethnic Serbs and some came back later on after war etc.

(obviously not pointing out Croatians are nazis. There’s good people everywhere and want to coexist and move on from wars)

But if you look back on history, this particular Croatian force in the area at the time were vicious and proud themselves to “Ustashi” as in the ones supporting Nazi SS in WW2.

I’ll help you. Google Ustashi.


And no, I’m not proud like what is seen on Ukraine Reddit side for example.

Clearly some cheering on the thought later about clearing huge ethnic Russian populations out if Crimea gets taken over later. (which it won’t Russia will fully mobilize at that point)

a reply to: Arbitrageur


None had been destroyed as of Sunday per a VERY trusted source that would actually know.

I highly doubt any were destroyed since, but Ukraine actually did capture some HIMARS hunter spies today.

a reply to: Imhere


"telegram".

So you mean more plywood models were hit.

Thank you, we have a drinking game going on those.

originally posted by: MidnightWatcher
a reply to: Imhere


"telegram".

So you mean more plywood models were hit.

Thank you, we have a drinking game going on those.

We do.

Countries have been using Decoys in battle for a LONG TIME lol.

Obviously not every one is a wooden decoy lol. Nor is “HIMARS” some untouchable super weapon that’s in outer space where a Star Trek fleet can’t even hit it.

Lol

Infographics: in addition to the U.S. "lend-lease", the Armed Forces of Ukraine also receive "supplies" from the Red Army.