Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 2

a reply to: MidnightWatcher

The volunteer battalions from Russia's Federal Subjects have instructions to restore the situation.

ETA. "restore the situation" was the order given to Germany's Grossdeutschland Division in January 1945 when the Soviet armies blew holes hundreds of miles wide in the German lines. The "situation" was so fluid that the GD Division had to de-train under the fire of Soviet mechanized columns that had moved far faster than German commanders imagined was possible.

Cheers

a reply to: WeDemBoyz

There are no legitimate reasons for Russians who serve their warlords or armed forces to embrace the war in Ukraine. Poorly led and supplied, elements of the Russian military fighting in Ukraine might seek a way out of the war. However, their options are limited, and if they obtain POW status, they might face reprisals upon release.

However, those Russians whose purposes are looting and committing atrocities in Ukraine are content with their roles.

originally posted by: xpert11
a reply to: WeDemBoyz

There are no legitimate reasons for Russians who serve their warlords or armed forces to embrace the war in Ukraine. Poorly led and supplied, elements of the Russian military fighting in Ukraine might seek a way out of the war. However, their options are limited, and if they obtain POW status, they might face reprisals upon release.

However, those Russians whose purposes are looting and committing atrocities in Ukraine are content with their roles.

There are a lot of recent reports of russian soldiers running however they could to their rear, unconfirmed for now but it would explain some of the unexpectedly rapid Ukrainian advances.

I haven't seen many unconfirmed reports of russian soldiers actually trying to surrender yet, but they've been brainwashed into believing that Ukrainians are nazis that eat dead russians.

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2


This normally trusted source with a high level of historical accuracy and known for having very good russian sources, is claiming that russia is in the process of rapidly abandoning Kupiansk and predicts that Ukrainian forces will take the entire city within 24 hours.

He further claims that russia is bringing large numbers of airborne forces from deep inside russia to set up new defensive lines east of Kupiansk.

youtu.be...




No idea if true, his report of this surprised me.

a reply to: MidnightWatcher

That is interesting, if only because I seem to recall that the bulk of Russia's airborne and airmobile troops were already committed in Ukraine. I may check that again to see the degree of "elite" (cough) troop commitment.

Cheers

originally posted by: F2d5thCavv2
a reply to: MidnightWatcher

That is interesting, if only because I seem to recall that the bulk of Russia's airborne and airmobile troops were already committed in Ukraine. I may check that again to see the degree of "elite" (cough) troop commitment.

Cheers

He described them as 'lightly armed airborne forces', I didn't catch any other details, other than that he has a pretty low opinion on whether this move will be successful for russia.





Another (less trusted) source is claiming that russia relocated a significant number (he said most) of it's attack aircraft from Crimea to Belgorod over the past couple weeks.

This would fit with the rapid decline of russian air support near Kherson but I haven't found any confirmation yet.

Yes they are bringing it because there will be a large show down, the Ucrainians are going to risk it, to rush things.
As stated this is due to winter coming.


This article

www.theguardian.com...

Ukrainians are likely to experience the coldest winter in decades, its gas chief has said, as the thermostats on its Soviet-era centralised heating systems are set to be switched on later and turned down.

Yurii Vitrenko, the head of the state gas company Naftogaz, said indoor temperatures would be set at between 17 and 18C, about four degrees lower than normal, and he advised people to stock up on blankets and warm clothes for when outdoor temperatures fall to and beyond the -10C winter average.

Ukraine has an annual mean temperature of 7-9°C. Mean summer temperatures (May to August) range from less than 18°C to 22°C. Mean winter (December to March) temperatures range from -4.8°С to 2°C.

So by next month in October it will start snowing causing problems, the winters are bad there.

I predict the worst winter for Ukraine.
It takes months to plan an offensive, they have drawn a fast plan to risk things just to get a foothold for the spring.

It's about to go really bad where they will meet the bulk of the Russian forces and clash.

a reply to: Afinity99

Doesn't that mean the russians will also be experiencing the coldest winter in decades? I give home filed advantage to Ukraine...the russians are already weary after 7 months of war with no vacation. I bet they miss their warm beds back home and that will only get worse as the cold sets in for winter.

originally posted by: WeDemBoyz
a reply to: Afinity99

Doesn't that mean the russians will also be experiencing the coldest winter in decades? I give home filed advantage to Ukraine...the russians are already weary after 7 months of war with no vacation. I bet they miss their warm beds back home and that will only get worse as the cold sets in for winter.

Yes but Russian temperatures are much more lower in Russia than in Ucraine.
Siberia you can get minus 40. So these soldiers for them Ucraine will be like spring compared to home.

The Ucrainians can't make offensive during the winter, you have to move forward in the snow with all that extra clothing, you are not that flexible anymore, the extra stuff will drag you down in time as you tire. Advantage is for the defender that stays put and does not advance.
These troops have to march hundreds of miles, winter will make it difficult and they will tire faster to march in the snow.

So conflict during the winter will tone down, this gives the Russians time to really restructure things where they are based and install and plan everything, something they had not had time to do, bring more troops, find more recruits, fill in the ranks, fill in the gaps where they control the territory.

If I were Putin I would strike their gas infrastructure, while I'm aware of the civilians left in the cold, their army would have a hard time in the winter with no heat, cut electricity totally. For him to do this, he has to drop special operation and just go to war.

You hit their infrastructure hard, gas pipes, heating plants, electricity, their troops will freeze in the dark.
Russians control the power in ucraine, nuclear power plant is under their control.
Hit coal plants, hit bridges that come out of kiev.

Putin does not get this, no more mister nice guy. Your people are dying and you are playing around with a tank here a tank there.
It means you don't care about their lives.

a reply to: Afinity99

Yes but Russian temperatures are much more lower in Russia than in Ucraine. Siberia you can get minus 40.

Some facts.

There are two main climates here. The first is in southern Siberia and where most of the people live. It is categorized as humid continental. This is the same climate that most of central Europe has. The average annual temperature is 33° F while winters average -4 °F in January

expatriant.com...

So for most people in Siberia are looking at winter temperatures of -4F and not -40

Not all Russian troops come form Siberia, they come from all over Russia. Some areas of Russia are milder during winter.

The Black Sea coast averages around 6C during winter.

www.timeanddate.com...@8347465/climate

originally posted by: WeDemBoyz
a reply to: Afinity99

Doesn't that mean the russians will also be experiencing the coldest winter in decades? I give home filed advantage to Ukraine...the russians are already weary after 7 months of war with no vacation. I bet they miss their warm beds back home and that will only get worse as the cold sets in for winter.

The Rusian army is more than capable.
Putin is not doing it right, he has soft spots for them, he thinks they are brothers
Brothers do not do this, kill your people.

They are Infants born on the border between nations of all kind,.

a reply to: Afinity99

Not sure what the temperature in Siberia has to do with the temperature in Ukraine. Ukraine is the battlefield and soldiers on both sides will be subject to the same weather conditions.

originally posted by: alldaylong
a reply to: Afinity99

Yes but Russian temperatures are much more lower in Russia than in Ucraine. Siberia you can get minus 40.

Some facts.

There are two main climates here. The first is in southern Siberia and where most of the people live. It is categorized as humid continental. This is the same climate that most of central Europe has. The average annual temperature is 33° F while winters average -4 °F in January

expatriant.com...

So for most people in Siberia are looking at winter temperatures of -4F and not -40

Not all Russian troops come form Siberia, they come from all over Russia. Some areas of Russia are milder during winter.

The Black Sea coast averages around 6C during winter.

www.timeanddate.com...@8347465/climate

Were talking Celsius not F. You must not be from Europe and are using F and not the metric system.

a reply to: Afinity99

The Rusian army is more than capable.

I doubt that statement more each passing day. They might have the capability, but they haven't shown an ounce of it yet.

originally posted by: WeDemBoyz
a reply to: Afinity99

Not sure what the temperature in Siberia has to do with the temperature in Ukraine. Ukraine is the battlefield and soldiers on both sides will be subject to the same weather conditions.

Napoleon lost against the Russians in the cold winter.
Hitler lost against the Russians in the cold winter.
Ukraine will do the same not because some lucky charm but because who stays put and guards has no problems during winter, who is on the offensive has problems, and if you hit their infrastructure and you leave them into the cold winter then it's impossible for them to put up a fight in the winter because they will be preoccupied with burning wood and making camp fires to heat up.


All Putin has to do is give orders to terminate any infrastructure of comunications, pipes, power plants, bridges that can't be rebuild during winter because cement needs a temperature, roads.

Russia can do this from far away, ships, cruise missles, white swan bombers.

originally posted by: Afinity99
If I were Putin I would

.

... give myself and prepare to pay reparations for the damage done to Ukraine and elsewhere, alongside an order for the Russian military to retreat to pre-2014 borders. I would also return the hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians now sitting in Russian concentration camps.

Putin does not get this, no more mister nice guy.

Putin's military is expiring. He has played his cards and it was a poor hand. While the Ukrainians will get modern warm winter from Western friends, the Russian rank and file will have to cope with moth-eaten Soviet-issue horse hair padded jackets. It's not going to be a happy winter for Russian soldiers.

a reply to: Afinity99

Minus 40C is equivalent to minus 40F

Look it up.

originally posted by: alldaylong
a reply to: Afinity99

Minus 40C is equivalent to minus 40F

Look it up.

For syberia
The annual average temperature is about 0.5 °C (32.9 °F). January averages about −20 °C (−4 °F) and July about +19 °C (66 °F), while daytime temperatures in summer typically exceed 20 °C (68 °F).

You got the average for all the months.

originally posted by: paraphi

Putin's military is expiring. He has played his cards and it was a poor hand. While the Ukrainians will get modern warm winter from Western friends, the Russian rank and file will have to cope with moth-eaten Soviet-issue horse hair padded jackets. It's not going to be a happy winter for Russian soldiers.

That I agree, Putin made bad decisions, it does not mean Russia does not have cababilities left.

Around 20 - 30 thoulsand troops have been killed, putin still has around 100.000 troops plus at least an equal number of separatists.

He has altilery, lot's of it, has lot's of stock piles of shells.
Still has large amount of cruise missles and other similar tec.
Has a huge air force that he has not used at all.
Has strategic bombers that can carry large amounts of conventional pay loads to blow up strategic objectives

He has lost around 1000 tanks, that is his biggest loss, the tanks.

While the Ukrainians will get modern warm winter from Western friends,

They will not get anything if their infrastructure is terminated, I don't mean cities like bomb civilians, like heating infrastructure and gas infrastructure.

I send a white swan and take the sh^^t out of it, bomb it into oblivion.

You want europeans to give heating to Ukraine and they the are worrried that this winter they are going to freeze into the winter.
Germans are in panic.

a reply to: Afinity99

In a twist of historical irony, like Germany during Operation Barbarossa, the Russians lack the logistical capabilities to supply their ground forces with winter clothing and equipment. As a side note, I am disappointed by New Zealand's failure to dispatch specialised winter apparel to Ukraine. An opportunity to assist Ukraine at a modest cost is going unheeded.