Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 2

a reply to: xpert11

What has happened in the last six months ensures any ensuing peace will be brittle and tense. I expect the Russo-Ukraine border may become something like the border between eastern and western Europe during the Cold War.

Oddly enough, if Ukraine recovers the Don Basin, it may have to engage in nation building in order to motivate at least some of the ethnic Russian population there to accept Kyiv as the legitimate government. In any case, massive reconstruction of shattered cities will be necessary.

Long term, the Ukrainian diaspora will keep alive, in the destinations they went to, memories of the Russian invasion.

Cheers

Oops. @Peaceinoutz already covered this one.

Cheers

a reply to: peaceinoutz

Viet cong were decimated. the US only lost that war due to leaving before the VC died out. Their own commander stated they had won if they would had stayed a few more weeks.

originally posted by: F2d5thCavv2

What has happened in the last six months ensures any ensuing peace will be brittle and tense. I expect the Russo-Ukraine border may become something like the border between eastern and western Europe during the Cold War.

Assuming there isn't a second Russian Civil War and China doesn't invade Siberia, I fear the outbreak of peace would be temporary. Then, in 5 - 10 years, the Russians invade Ukraine with higher degrees of logistical and military competency. If those developments are a bridge too far, perhaps the Russians would conduct a terror campaign inside Ukraine.

As 1919/the failed peace after WW1 and the outcome of the Six Day War War displays, winning the peace is far more challenging than winning the war.

Oddly enough, if Ukraine recovers the Don Basin, it may have to engage in nation building in order to motivate at least some of the ethnic Russian population there to accept Kyiv as the legitimate government. In any case, massive reconstruction of shattered cities will be necessary.

The best outcome is if the ethnic Russian population opposes Putin's war or fights for Ukraine. I don't say that out of my expectations but a fear of what might occur in the future. At worst, the related Russian-speaking people might face expulsion from Ukraine. Ethnic Germans were expelled from Austria and Czechoslovakia early after WW2.

Zelensky displays Churchill-type qualities as Ukraine's wartime leader. But if Russian forces are driven from Ukraine, he or his successor must embrace Abraham Lincoln's desire to preserve his country. But that doesn't preclude legal proceedings against alleged collaborators.

This recent days events in Eastern Ukraine will probably have ramifications in Russia.
The generals know Putin will try to blame them, even thought Putin itself has been also making decisions ......so this could start something there....it'S too early to tell yet...

If the higher rank officers are getting unhappy more in Russia side , it effects whole war .


We will see ....

Taking back land occupied since 2014...occupiers are fleeing.

Governor: Ukrainian partisans raise flag over Kreminna, Luhansk Oblast. Luhansk Oblast Governor Serhiy Haidai said there are also reports that Russian proxies in communities of Luhansk Oblast occupied in 2014 are fleeing.

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I'm not calling it just yet; however, you dont spend 6 months advancing, lose all gains in one week and then have any real expectation of doing better a second time. The opera isnt over yet, but I can hear the fat lady starting to sing.

Institute for the Study of War: Ukrainian retake more territory in 5 days than Russia since April. Ukraine has “penetrated Russian lines" up to 70 kilometers and taken over 3,000 square km since Sept. 6, covering more territory than in all Russian operations since April.

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a reply to: WeDemBoyz

A note of caution is warranted: Ukrainian forces entering a town or another location doesn't mean the fighting in those areas has ended. Interestingly, after D-day, the BBC would report the arrival of allied forces at a particular place, but they omitted the presence of the German defenders. But none of that takes away from the military setbacks facing Russian troops.

a reply to: WeDemBoyz

It just shows Russia cannot defend in depth, at least in some places. They are spread too thin along the front line. Ukraine has the initiative and can dictate the terms of the forthcoming engagements. Ukraine also has the intelligence, courtesy of the US and UK, so probably have a good picture of what Russia are doing and their deployments. I just wonder how "dark" Ukraine is to the Russians, because they have been outplayed in the last few days.

I hope this is the beginning of the end, but know that Ukraine will have to spill more blood to reclaim their country. Russia won't give up without a fight, but cannot see Russian soldiers having high morale when they see their "superpower" army being dismantled by degrees.

are Ukraine required to keep receipts off all the money they have been given from other countries?

Like what is it actually being spent on

they say its for Military equipment and humanitarian aid
so are they required to provide proof of money being spent on the right things etc

we are shoveling a #load of money at Ukraine globally
just feels like its being stolen and not actually being used to help Ukraine

originally posted by: paraphi
a reply to: WeDemBoyz

I hope this is the beginning of the end, but know that Ukraine wi_javascript:icon('

')ll have to spill more blood to reclaim their country. Russia won't give up without a fight, but cannot see Russian soldiers having high morale when they see their "superpower" army being dismantled by degrees.

Churchill's quote after the Battle of El Alamein is apt.

"Now this is not the end, it is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning."

source

The war in Ukraine is far from over, and Putin's next moves remain unknown. The risk of Russian forces employing weapons of mass destruction remains and might increase as their military fortunes wane.

As the Ukrainian forces advance, they move further away from their logistical tail. So the risk of Russian counterattacks might occur if the defenders are sufficiently organised and supplied. Also, Ukrainian forces will need to replace losses in equipment and causalities with reinforcements as the situation develops.

International military assistance to Ukraine will play a part in its ability to regenerate front-line equipment. For instance, the arrival of additional Bushmaster vehicles from Australia will likely replace existing losses and not serve as additional equipment.

a reply to: xpert11

Indeed. All offensives have limits imposed by logistics and the need to regroup units.

Ukraine has the advantage of operating on its home ground, but that won't provide the massive ammunition and petrol requirements of mechanized formations. At some point, the Russians will get a breather.

Cheers

Russian forces might have order now to leave from Kharkiv Oblast. If true it`s big thing .


Russians confirm they are leaving the whole of Kharkiv Oblast.

originally posted by: Kenzo

Russian forces might have order now to leave from Kharkiv Oblast. If true it`s big thing .


Russians confirm they are leaving the whole of Kharkiv Oblast.

They need to leave the whole of Ukraine, otherwise it's going to be messy for them.

a reply to: alldaylong

Sounds pretty messy already.

Where watching the collapse of the Russian Federation and it won't be good. Russia started this war as the second most powerful army in the world now they are the 2nd most powerful in Ukraine. Russian soldiers are just fleeing at this point watched several videos of them just walking into ammo dumps that were unguarded. there taking over tank brigades that were just left behind. I thought this was going to last for years but its likely to be over in 6 months at this point.



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a reply to: dragonridr

Indeed:

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They are in retreat in significant areas.

originally posted by: sapien82
are Ukraine required to keep receipts off all the money they have been given from other countries?

Like what is it actually being spent on

they say its for Military equipment and humanitarian aid
so are they required to provide proof of money being spent on the right things etc

we are shoveling a #load of money at Ukraine globally
just feels like its being stolen and not actually being used to help Ukraine

Most countries are sending equipment, not cash.

They are serious about home cleaning ...



Governor: Armed Forces liberate over 40 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast.

Kharkiv Oblast Governor Oleh Syniehubov told a local media outlet that the actual number of recaptured settlements is higher, but “we cannot announce this number.”

a reply to: Oldcarpy2

I'm shocked at the amount being captured.