Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 2

originally posted by: MidnightWatcher
a reply to: F2d5thCavv2


I'm pretty sure I've geo tracked the reinforcements that russia is rapidly racing to defend Kupiansk, to Vovachansk, which seems odd given their large force posture in the Luhansk area.

Oh well, time for Ukraine to open yet another front to take the Vovachansk area.

Denys Davidov just reported that Ukraine opened a new front heading for Vovachansk and that there is heavy fighting in the area.

He also hinted at a new front headed towards Lyman intended to trap 10k russians fleeing from Izyum.

Reportedly just one of many locations of abandoned russian equipment. This one alone has dozens of tanks and armored vehicles

"Only in one location, there are dozens of units of abandoned #Russia|n equipment that will strengthen the #UkrainianArmedForces"

Video: twitter.com...


As an aside, I read that China's social media is roasting the Russian military and the chinese government isnt censoring it.

It looks like anti Putin sentiment is spreading in Russia

This time from a Moscow Municipality.


www.newsweek.com...

originally posted by: MidnightWatcher

originally posted by: MidnightWatcher
a reply to: F2d5thCavv2


I'm pretty sure I've geo tracked the reinforcements that russia is rapidly racing to defend Kupiansk, to Vovachansk, which seems odd given their large force posture in the Luhansk area.

Oh well, time for Ukraine to open yet another front to take the Vovachansk area.

Denys Davidov just reported that Ukraine opened a new front heading for Vovachansk and that there is heavy fighting in the area.

He also hinted at a new front headed towards Lyman intended to trap 10k russians fleeing from Izyum.

Update:

Starsky is reporting (unofficially) that all of Lyman is now in Ukrainian hands.

originally posted by: WeDemBoyz

As an aside, I read that China's social media is roasting the Russian military and the chinese government isnt censoring it.

I still don't count out a Chinese invasion of Russia after the October elections. It looks like Ping is going to get that 3rd term as Chairman of the CCP. It's a stretch for sure but Russia is in a vulnerable state right now. The next couple of months are going to be interesting. Does Ping push the US and do something towards Taiwan? Or does he go after the wounded animal on it's doorstep with an awful lot of natural resources well within a range the Chinese could consider it a worthwhile gamble. China may see a situation that they can profit from a pure economic perspective. I doubt the world would sanction China if in April or May they head north to Vladivistock and Siberia.

OR China may just sit back and keep to themselves.

Time will tell I guess.

Has anyone heard numbers on POW's? I've been looking but haven't really seen very much. I would think there would be a level of fear on the Russians of getting captured. The Ukrainians are going to be looking for people to prosecute. I have no doubt that the Russians know about the ones that have been convicted already, And some of the international human rights groups are going to be looking to send some of the higher ranking folks to The Hague.

originally posted by: GAOTU789
Has anyone heard numbers on POW's? I've been looking but haven't really seen very much. I would think there would be a level of fear on the Russians of getting captured. The Ukrainians are going to be looking for people to prosecute. I have no doubt that the Russians know about the ones that have been convicted already, And some of the international human rights groups are going to be looking to send some of the higher ranking folks to The Hague.

My sources say very little about POWs, and that's surprised me a bit.

From what little I can tell, it seems that russian soldiers are running at the first sight of Ukrainians, and Ukrainians aren't trying to stop them.

I'm really starting to believe that russian soldiers are afraid of being eaten by Ukrainians as their government has repeatedly told them.

Either way, russians appear to be running away on foot and in civilian vehicles and seem to be leaving all of their perfectly good equipment behind.

I suspect, but haven't heard anywhere, that Ukrainians have spread a message through the russian ranks that soldiers retreating without heavy weapons won't be attacked.

Moscow Officials Urge Putin to GTFO: ‘Everything Went Wrong’

link

The open letter to Putin from municipal deputies in the Russian capital’s Lomonosovsky district started out by seemingly trying to let him down gently, telling him he had “good reforms” in his first term and part of his second.

But then, “everything went wrong,” the deputies said.

“The rhetoric that you and your subordinates use has been riddled with intolerance and aggression for a long time, which in the end effectively threw our country back into the Cold War era. Russia has again begun to be feared and hated, we are once again threatening the whole world with nuclear weapons,” the letter read.

“We ask you to relieve yourself of your post due to the fact that your views and your governance model are hopelessly outdated and hinder the development of Russia and its human potential,” the deputies said in closing.

Even the pro-Kremlin Telegram channels run by Russian military bloggers had a dramatic change of tune as Ukraine claimed new wins Saturday: They began to openly blast military leadership—and Putin personally—for the embarrassing failures.

Putin may have to save face to end this stupid war.

Young people don't want to fight stupid wars that don't have any moral basis behind them. The Russians united to beat Hitler because of survival and moral power. Putin's war made no sense on any level in today's world.

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2


From Luhansk OVA Serhiy Gaidai:

"The residents of Lisichansk have already seen the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the outskirts of the city.

Partisans over Kremennaya at night raised the Ukrainian flag.

Russians and collaborators are leaving the territory of the Luhansk region en masse.

We are waiting for information from the General Staff."




ETA - There is video evidence of russia losing another su 34 in Ukraine today

Avarage number of lost equipment , and ratio .





Source

It does not look good for Russia ....

The Russian troops have absolutely no reason to fight the Ukrainians.

Putin is punch drunk with power hungry ego.

In every war, troops need the motivation to risk their lives and kill others.

Russian troops do not have any motive to fight their own basically countrymen in Ukraine or no one who has hurt them at all.

What principle? The civil war was fought on principle, as were WWII and other wars.

Though most wars were fought based on brainwashed citizens and egomaniacal leaders, in today’s world, young people are less inclined to brainless nationalism and, therefore, less prone to these ego-based depraved wars of the leaders of countries' nationalist and predatory wars of conquest.

That's why Vietnam beat the US, and the colonial powers were kicked out of countries after WWII. Even in the Russian-Afghan war, the Russian troops had no dog in that fight as they have no dog in this fight.

a reply to: MidnightWatcher

Yeah, "Jomini of the West" is calling this "the most stunningly successful counteroffensive since the IDFs OPERATION GAZELLE during the 1973 Yom Kippur War".

I'm amazed the Ukrainians already took Izyum and Kupyansk. It looks like at least two Russian field "armies" (small corps by U.S. standards) will have to retreat with a huge reservoir at their back. Not to mention crossing the Siversky Donets River the other way.

Map courtesy Opentopomap.org
Locations in blue retaken by Ukraine, or will be taken within a day or two
Red spray is rough location of Russian troops west of the reservoir


Cheers

10 September Update

Key Takeaways

* Ukrainian forces in Kharkiv Oblast are collapsing Russia’s northern Donbas axis, and Ukrainian forces will likely recapture Izyum itself in the next 48 hours.

* The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced the withdrawal of troops from the Balakliya-Izyum line on September 10, and the Russian MoD’s failure to set effective information conditions is collapsing the Russian information space.

* The withdrawal announcement and occupation authorities’ failure to organize evacuation measures is further alienating the Russian milblogger and Russian nationalist communities that support the Kremlin’s grandiose vision of capturing the entirety of Ukraine.

* Ukrainian forces reached positions within 15-25km of the Russo-Ukrainian border in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast, Izyum’s northern outskirts, and Lyman’s south and southwestern outskirts, and captured the western half of Kupyansk.

* Russian forces are reinforcing frontline positions in Kherson Oblast while Ukrainian forces conduct positional battles and continue their interdiction campaign against Russian logistics lines.

* Russian forces conducted limited ground assaults north of Kharkiv City, south of Bakhmut, and west of Donetsk City.

* Russian recruitment drives are generating some criticism among Russian milbloggers and regions.

* Russian forces are reportedly intensifying filtration measures in Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts in response to Ukrainian counteroffensives on the Southern Axis.

The Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kharkiv Oblast is routing Russian forces and collapsing Russia’s northern Donbas axis. Russian forces are not conducting a controlled withdrawal and are hurriedly fleeing southeastern Kharkiv Oblast to escape encirclement around Izyum. . . . Ukrainian forces have penetrated Russian lines to a depth of up to 70 kilometers in some places and captured over 3,000 square kilometers of territory in the past five days since September 6 – more territory than Russian forces have captured in all their operations since April.

Cheers

If this Ukraine war map shows about current situation, Ukraine armed forces are about 1 kilometer from Donets international airport .


Ukraine 6 war map

originally posted by: Kenzo


If this Ukraine war map shows about current situation, Ukraine armed forces are about 1 kilometer from Donets international airport .


Ukraine 6 war map

A normally trusted source has just said it was false Ukrainian propaganda.

youtu.be...

Hopefully true ..

#PANIC: #Ukraine's General Staff report that Russian 3rd Motorized Rifle Division are in a panic due to encirclement with all supply lines cut off in #Kharkiv region.

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

Subject to Ukrainian logistics, the battlefields opened up from fixed set actions to the pursuit or encirclement of Russian forces. The scope for manoeuvre warfare is alongside those developments.

Ironically, Russians don't have sufficient forces to defend their front lines from current or potential future Ukrainian offensives. The Germans experienced that same issue across multiple fronts in WW2. In June - July 1944, the Germans could no longer hold back the Soviet onslaught and allied advances in France and Italy.

Concerning the current routing of Russian forces in Southern Ukraine: In shades of Rommel's defeat in North Africa, Russian logistical handicaps and deficiencies in air and naval power caught up with them.

a reply to: WeDemBoyz

The Russian tanks don't appear to have run out of fuel in an open field or on sealed roads. Perhaps the tanks were immobilised for lack of spare parts and maintenance. In light of Russian logistical handicaps, vehicle repair and maintenance depots are likely non-functional. Also, the lack of camouflage suggests that Ukrainian forces overran the Russian defenders in the area or the tanks are war trophies.

originally posted by: Kenzo

Hopefully true ..

#PANIC: #Ukraine's General Staff report that Russian 3rd Motorized Rifle Division are in a panic due to encirclement with all supply lines cut off in #Kharkiv region.

3d MRD is shown south of Izyum on Jomini's map.

Possibly true.

Cheers

a reply to: GAOTU789

Russian atrocities in Ukraine likely spelt an end to official POW exchanges. The housing and feeding of POWs en mass for years last occurred in WW2. Unfortunately, Ukraine doesn't have the luxury of dispatching Russian POWs to international destinations away from the war zones. In comparison, Axis POWs captured by the Western Allies were housed and fed in the likes of Australia and Canada.

Nor is it clear if the war's outcome and any potential peace settlement would ensure the release of Russian and Ukrainian POWs. The Russians might deny the existence of the related people or keep them captive. Also, Ukraine might opt to use former or current Russian POWs as free labour for reconstruction purposes.