Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 2

originally posted by: alphabetaone


It is. If it weren't for western aid they'd already be living under Russian rule, which is what i think, right from the start, Putin was counting on....that Europe and the US would do exactly zero to help or very minimal.

This is probably the most accurate statement I've read, imo. Like I said in another thread a while ago, Putin was expecting the same response he got during the Georgia war but they world said NYET!! that's enough.

a reply to: PatriotGames4u

That all makes pretty decent sense and I've thought of some of that as well. Air warfare isn't in my wheelhouse, my knowledge is much more groundbased with a pretty decent understanding of logistics/tactics as well.

a reply to: alphabetaone


Ukraine hasn't been using rail much for quite a while (which is indeed causing significant issues for them) because russia was actually quite good at destroying anything riding the rails.


Other than part of the rail bits I agree with 100% of your post.

a reply to: PatriotGames4u

Let me explain why i say it. The rail system, to Ukrainians is a sign of resistance (basically a talisman of good fortune) that, as long as it operates they will be ok.

Also even some of their most major highways are single lane roads in such state of disrepair that it is counter-intuitive to transport heavy equipment across them in any reasonable fashion. I mean, Ukraine's rail system stretches 13,000+ miles, it's massive.

As of May 6, the Ukrzaliznytsia trains were still operating but often with 12 to 14 hour delays, constantly needing to be repaired after damage. It's tough though to get up to date information on the state of the rails as it's being kept close to the vest.

But the morale associated with the trains continuing to operate as well as the logistics of it can't be understated.

a reply to: alphabetaone


Excellent points, I hadn't really looked at it from that perspective.


As far as I know, they are still running trains in some areas, but are keeping critical gear off of them nearly everywhere, and unloading far from any active fighting, because this is one of the few ways russia has been pretty good in the air.


Ukraine won't even load trains anywhere near Lviv (or the 2 other places our stuff usually enters Ukraine) anymore after several accurate and impossibly well timed russian strikes, and hiding trains from airplanes is a tough nut to crack.

Ukraine actually caught and executed multiple russian spies in the Lviv area that were sending precise and timely targeting data to russia, but only after those spies had caused quite a lot of harm.

a reply to: fuzz4262

Doing so will also prompt Russia to cut diplomatic relation with Britain and arm Argentina with Su-35 jets and encourage Argentina to invade Falklands.

Where do you get this nonsense from?

originally posted by: Freeborn
a reply to: fuzz4262

Doing so will also prompt Russia to cut diplomatic relation with Britain and arm Argentina with Su-35 jets and encourage Argentina to invade Falklands.

Where do you get this nonsense from?

Russia operates in a twilight world.

a reply to: PatriotGames4u

They are repeatedly doing the exact opposite of what they should be in just about every way, and the confusion in this area is regularly displayed in drone video and communication intercepts.

The flexibility required to adapt in changing warfare is something the Russian military lacks as a consequence of the dynamics of Russian society under Putin. Flexibility requires the ability to independently think and the freedom to try new approaches without negative consequences.

Putin's Russia has reinforced the worst aspects of Russian society in general and military behavior in particular. The junior leaders don't show initiative; they continue on failing approaches until someone senior changes their orders.

Ukraine can profit from this behavior, but successfully doing so will take nerves of steel, a talent for operational warfare, and brave men.

Cheers

originally posted by: GAOTU789


This is probably the most accurate statement I've read, imo. Like I said in another thread a while ago, Putin was expecting the same response he got during the Georgia war but they world said NYET!! that's enough.

If we look back the world didn't do a damn thing the first 30 days or so. It wasn't until Putin stalled out with his 40 mile convoy that ran out of food, water, gas that the world went holy crap he kind of sucks. Then the aid and rhetoric started. That was a big miss calculation on his part since he can not play a game of attrition, and will lose that one.

The biggest miss calculation is this whole idea that he and the Russians have that they believe 90% of the Ukrainian people want to be back under the motherland. Well this is what Russia tells themselves and even now the reason narrative for the invasion has shifted from helping the people in the East, to 30 US bio-labs found, to a Nazi behind every tree to just throwing all that aside and just coming out in saying Ukraine is Russia, has always been Russia, should never have left Russia and they will take it back to correct this error. That is how RT feels here on ATS, and this invasion should have been more of a walk in the park if that was all true as the population should have cheered Putin's troops as they rolled into the capital. That didn't happen and now the reality is 90% do not want to be Russian, but Ukrainian.

a reply to: Xtrozero


Even worse (for russia), putin absolutely guaranteed that Ukraine will NEVER trust russia again.

The consequences of what russia has done to it's neighbor will be felt by russians for centuries, and that's the absolute best case scenario for russia at this point.

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2


Well said!

originally posted by: PatriotGames4u
a reply to: Xtrozero


Even worse (for russia), putin absolutely guaranteed that Ukraine will NEVER trust russia again.

The consequences of what russia has done to it's neighbor will be felt by russians for centuries, and that's the absolute best case scenario for russia at this point.

Putin has done more for Ukrainian nationalism than anyone since Stalin.

Cheers

originally posted by: PatriotGames4u

Even worse (for russia), putin absolutely guaranteed that Ukraine will NEVER trust russia again.

The consequences of what russia has done to it's neighbor will be felt by russians for centuries, and that's the absolute best case scenario for russia at this point.

Putin has sure changed the landscape of who trusts whom. Even I a few years back made posts that Russia is not a threat to anyone and it is all China. I still see China as the big world threat with Russia more EU threat, but I really didn't think they would invade as they did and just keep playing the tit for tat game. The man is completely delusional in how he sees the world around him.

originally posted by: Xtrozero

originally posted by: PatriotGames4u

Even worse (for russia), putin absolutely guaranteed that Ukraine will NEVER trust russia again.

The consequences of what russia has done to it's neighbor will be felt by russians for centuries, and that's the absolute best case scenario for russia at this point.

Putin has sure changed the landscape of who trusts who. Even I a few years back made posts that Russia is not a threat to anyone and it is all China. I still see China as a world threat with Russia more EU threat, but I really didn't think they would invade as they did and just keep playing the tit for tat game. The man is completely delusional in how he seeing the world around him.

Same.

Exact same.



I started 'preparing the ground' for battling the russian propaganda machine the very day I learned of U.S. intercepts of putin's invasion plans last year, and then left before the war started because the prep work was complete (no need to continue with those disruptive efforts) AND I was 100% certain that putin wouldn't actually pull the trigger.

I was wrong, and quickly returned.

a reply to: GAOTU789

I think Russia thought the invasion of Ukraine would only take a week. When it didnt happen it through Russia for a loop. This is not Syria (for Russia). What we are seeing in Ukraine is a first hand look of a modern war / battlefield in addition to seeing both sides relatively even matched.

The bigger countries (Russia, the US, UK etc) have never fought a modern war where the other side was relatively even matched.

Certainly an eye opener... Hopefully we are taking notes.

a reply to: Xcathdra

Russia is at war with NATO with Ukraine as a proxy. It should take hundreds of years at the shortest.

originally posted by: F2d5thCavv2

originally posted by: PatriotGames4u
a reply to: Xtrozero


Even worse (for russia), putin absolutely guaranteed that Ukraine will NEVER trust russia again.

The consequences of what russia has done to it's neighbor will be felt by russians for centuries, and that's the absolute best case scenario for russia at this point.

Putin has done more for Ukrainian nationalism than anyone since Stalin.

Cheers

That he has.

Although, I don't think that was intended

originally posted by: Freeborn
a reply to: fuzz4262

Doing so will also prompt Russia to cut diplomatic relation with Britain and arm Argentina with Su-35 jets and encourage Argentina to invade Falklands.

Where do you get this nonsense from?

russian teevee.

He's actually only using the LEAST absurd stuff from russian government teevee.

He could be posting stuff from the same 'source' that would have EVERYONE here falling off their chair laughing.

Even the folks posting the most absurd russian propaganda videos here, those aren't even remotely close to russian teevee nonsense.

originally posted by: fuzz4262
a reply to: Xcathdra

Russia is at war with NATO with Ukraine as a proxy. It should take hundreds of years at the shortest.

Who exactly are you trying to fool with that nonsense?

Why keep repeating it?



NATO is not involved in russia's territorial conquest ambitions, and russia wouldn't last a week if we were.



russia also has no ability to survive 2022 unless something seemingly impossible happens pretty soon.

originally posted by: PatriotGames4u
a reply to: GAOTU789


I've been pretty stunned by the same thing for quite a while, and have come up with a few solid (demonstrable) reasons for this, but I'm obviously still missing something important because those 'reasons' don't come close to explaining just how badly russia has failed in the air.




Here's the basics of what I've come up with so far:

(In no particular order)


Ukrainian S300s had their electronics (including acquisition, guidance, and concealment) secretly upgraded by a non NATO country prior to the war, and russia hasn't figured out how to defeat them yet (when they can even find them), which means a turkey shoot whenever russian planes get within range over 10k (russia currently has NO idea where they are located or what their range is)

Modern 'manpads', up to and including 'kamikazes' that don't require a target lock or even line of sight prior to firing were thought to be science fiction by russia prior to the war and they were 100% unprepared to deal with them (still are), which means everything from treetop to a little over 10k is being easily shot down.

U.S. recon is informing Ukraine of the exact position of every airborne russian asset, from the moment of takeoff/launch until it's destroyed.

russia apparently not only has no 'wild weasel' equivalent, they don't even appear to understand why it's critical.

moskva, and it's replacement makarov were sunk by Ukraine, causing the rest of russia's fleet to stay far enough away from the coast that they are unable to assist with their S300/S400, and this is something that russia was 100% depending on.

Ukraine prevented the use of, or destroyed, the massive russian helicopter fleet early in the war (this is a big part of how that massive convoy got trapped North of Kiev) preventing them from going after Ukraine's S300s as they had planned, or from doing much of anything else inside Ukraine.

Complete lack of 'stealth' and IR protection on EVERY aircraft russia has used in Ukraine so far, and they still don't appear to understand that flares stopped being an effective counter measure when facing western tech a very long time ago.



Most significant reason I've come up with so far:

russia appears to be completely baffled by Ukraine's new(ish) tech and tactics.

The importance of this can't be overstated, russia rarely appears to know what's hitting them, or how to properly prevent it. They are repeatedly doing the exact opposite of what they should be in just about every way, and the confusion in this area is regularly displayed in drone video and communication intercepts. This alone can break the bear's back if it continues long enough.

ACtually a s-300 has a minimum engagment altitude of 50 ft. anything over 50 ft can be targeted and engaged if what i read is correct.