Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 2

27 May update

Key Takeaways

* Russian forces began direct assaults on built-up areas of Severodonetsk without having fully encircled the city and will likely struggle to take ground in the city itself.

* Russian forces in Lyman appear to be dividing their efforts—attacking both southwest to support stalled forces in Izyum and southeast to advance on Siversk; they will likely struggle to accomplish either objective in the coming days.

* Russian forces in Popasna seek to advance north to support the encirclement of Severodonestk rather than advancing west toward Bakhmut.

* Positions northeast of Kharkiv City remain largely static, with no major attacks by either Russian or Ukrainian forces.

* Russian forces continue to fortify their defensive positions along the southern axis and advance efforts to integrate the Kherson region into Russian economic and political structures.

Map of Lyman area. Map source is OpenTopoMap.



More at URL above.

Observation: the shift to less mobile warfare that is occurring mainly in the Donbas plays to Russian strengths in terms of artillery firepower. Ukraine's army is not large enough to screen the borders of Transnistria and Belarus while simultaneously holding positions all along the front. In contrast, the Russians have concentrated more of their forces in the Donbas with an eye to conquering all of the territory in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts of Ukraine.

ISW has mentioned that Putin may attempt to declare a ceasefire once those oblasts are conquered. If he does this, he will hope for (ironically) support from western European countries to pressure Ukraine into accepting the ceasefire and a huge loss of territory. Watch especially France and Germany in this regard.

Cheers

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2


He's already done just about everything BUT unilaterally declare a ceasefire, because he knows EXACTLY what his war has done to russia.

The putin madman appears to have nearly lost (what's left of) his mind as a result of Ukraine repeatedly refusing to even discuss his 'offers', which of course do not include either removing russian troops from Ukraine, paying to rebuild what russia did to Ukraine, or even returning the food russia stole from Ukraine.

The putin madman apparently thought the palestinian game would work for russia, which it never will again (it worked for him in 2014, but comrade O and his pet B are no longer able to get away with openly appeasing putin's madness).




It wouldn't surprise me at all if the putin madman unexpectedly declares a ceasefire (which Ukraine and the rest of the world will ignore of course) because he knows better than anyone else that russia simply has zero chance of surviving the war he started, because his propaganda machine failed to leave Ukraine as defenseless as he had hoped.



My advice to Ukraine: Immediately drop hundreds of cruise missile sized ATACMS (500 pounders) via HIMARS on moscow and every single russian city between moscow and the Ukrainian border, within hours (minutes would be better) of such a declaration, and don't stop firing them until russia surrenders and retreats from ALL Ukrainian territory. THAT is the exact moment when you actually have your first opportunity to WIN.



Note: Ukraine does not have HIMARS yet, but it appears they soon will (might be in final leg of transit as I type this).

Note 2: Nobody in the know has said whether ATACMS loads will be included with HIMARS, but we appear to have just sent an absolutely crazy number of them to an unidentified location in Europe (not Germany is all I know).

Note 3: I've been told by someone that would probably know, that biden left the HIMARS decision completely up to the 40 countries that participated in Ramstein 2, who haven't yet publicly announced their decision yet (but HIMARS is being transported so...).

originally posted by: PatriotGames4u

Are you aware of any new base or leave restrictions today?

NEW? No...ACOC has remained pretty static on their messaging filtering down to field and base.

Nothing that i've heard anyway.

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

I suspect that Russian military commanders traded the losses of Ukrainian territory for mustering the forces and supplies to seize the country's remaining southern/coastal areas. The advantages enjoyed by Russian artillery firepower is depended upon their shoddy logistics. So in the regions, the Ukrainians have amassed forces for successful counterattacks; they likely waited until Russian logistics failed.

Both sides struggle to move troops and supplies away from rail transport. So transport constraints are another issue the Ukrainians face relating to amassing their forces in efforts to fight Russian spot fires.

Moreover, WW1 style bite and hold operations are elements in play, which contrasts with Field Marshall Slim, the commander of the 14th Army in Burma, employing manoeuvre warfare and exploiting the Japanese logistical constraints (WW2).

I regard the chances of Putin declaring a ceasefire that isn't designed to allow for the unopposed resupply of Russian military units as highly unlikely. Of course, a rational national leader would declare a Russian victory in Ukraine and "go home". But a rational head of state or government wouldn't have embarked on the war.

Also, that lack of rationality is why I think it is exceptionally likely that Putin will employ chemical and nuclear weapons in Ukraine. His motivation for using weapons of mass destruction would boil down to two reasons. First, an unsuccessful attempt at breaking the relatively deadlocked front lines takes place with chemical weapons. Second, chemical and nuclear weapons are deployed to "win" the war without Putin addressing the underlying issues of corruption and military incompetence handicapping Russia's war effort.

originally posted by: xpert11

Also, that lack of rationality is why I think it is exceptionally likely that Putin will employ chemical and nuclear weapons in Ukraine. His motivation for using weapons of mass destruction would boil down to two reasons. First, an unsuccessful attempt at breaking the relatively deadlocked front lines takes place with chemical weapons. Second, chemical and nuclear weapons are deployed to "win" the war without Putin addressing the underlying issues of corruption and military incompetence handicapping Russia's war effort.

My biggest fear, and concern for the Ukrainian people at the moment actually lies more in Dnipro...the country and troops rely so heavily on the railway system that if Russia can control Dnipro - which it seems to be dead set on doing - it is kind of game over for Ukraine, with that Russia can avoid WMD and the humanitarian and political fallout that comes along with it.

I don't doubt though, failing that, that Putin would greenlight more unconventional measures.

originally posted by: fuzz4262
a reply to: PatriotGames4u

Controlled opposition. You know, put on a show. Real opposition are arrested and thrown in jail for opposing war effort.

Good thing you're not in Russia. Those words would have led to a knock on your door. Or maybe it getting kicked down.

a reply to: xpert11


My only real hope regarding the putin madman and WMDs is that Russian Patriots will refuse to obey his orders, which unfortunately would likely mean the immediate execution of many Russian Patriots.


Those same Russian Patriots have saved all of humanity from ww3 by refusing to obey insane orders at least twice in the not too distant past, but that was before the putin madman (stalin and every russian leader until ussr was defeated were 100% evil to the core, but they weren't mad (insane) like putin and hitler.

What appears to be rebels using IED against a government vehicle.

twitter.com...

originally posted by: alphabetaone

originally posted by: xpert11

Also, that lack of rationality is why I think it is exceptionally likely that Putin will employ chemical and nuclear weapons in Ukraine. His motivation for using weapons of mass destruction would boil down to two reasons. First, an unsuccessful attempt at breaking the relatively deadlocked front lines takes place with chemical weapons. Second, chemical and nuclear weapons are deployed to "win" the war without Putin addressing the underlying issues of corruption and military incompetence handicapping Russia's war effort.

My biggest fear, and concern for the Ukrainian people at the moment actually lies more in Dnipro...the country and troops rely so heavily on the railway system that if Russia can control Dnipro - which it seems to be dead set on doing - it is kind of game over for Ukraine, with that Russia can avoid WMD and the humanitarian and political fallout that comes along with it.

I don't doubt though, failing that, that Putin would greenlight more unconventional measures.

I think it's still completely possible (maybe even likely) that russia will take/retake just about everything East of the dnipro river before it's over, but Ukraine can survive that if they continue fighting so intelligently (not getting trapped behind russia's pincers).

russia previously held much more, and much more important Ukrainian territory, and Ukraine had far fewer tools and supporters at the time.

It's a pretty complex game Ukraine is playing, they always knew they couldn't go toe to toe with the russian military, so are using their brains more often than their brawn.

That obviously needs to continue, and unfortunately that means they need to be successful in this nearly 100% of the time, as a single major failure could doom their entire effort, but no such failures appear to be on the horizon.



In reality, russia already lost this war nearly 2 months ago, and what we've been watching since is russia trying to recover (while hiding what happened from the russian population).



With their current international support, short of WMDs, Ukraine is in an extremely strong position in that they can continue fighting for their own territory indefinately while getting stronger every day (even while losing ground, even significant ground).

russia absolutely can't survive that, and they know it better than anyone else.

originally posted by: fuzz4262
What appears to be rebels using IED against a government vehicle.

twitter.com...

russian soldiers attacked the russian government?

That would be fantastic!

But it's more likely that you still don't understand the definition of 'rebel' and only use the term as a form of name calling now that nobody lets russian propagandist get away with your nazi nonsense anymore.

There's one thing about this war that has baffled me since the start.

How has Russia not gained total air superiority in 3 months?

www.globalfirepower.com...

www.globalfirepower.com...

Russia had, at the start of this war, aprox. 13X more aircraft then Ukraine.

Globalfirepower put s the Ukrainians with 318 total craft with 71 being trainers.

Russia had 4173 with 522 being trainers.

That would have been like the US not gaining air superiority in Iraq after 3 months.

I know many of those craft are not combat planes/choppers and many have assignments in other AO's but come on, 3 months and they are still Ukrainian planes in the air. I also understand that not all of the combat aircraft would be in a state of combat readiness but that applied to Ukraine as well.

Yes, I know that the risk of being shot down is high but you can still have/hold air superiority with that risk.

The only answer I keep coming up with is that the state of the Russian AF is in even worse shape than the Russian ground forces.

The first cargo ship arrived in Mariupol since the city was liberated from government forces.

twitter.com...

Iskander cruise missiles are heavily used for attacking long range government artillery pieces.

twitter.com...

It seems a fuel depot was attacked in Mykolaiv.

twitter.com...

a reply to: GAOTU789

Coalition air losses in Iraq was pretty high despite Iraq had limited air defense and had no supply during the entire 1990 war. This high loss is not acceptable to Russia.

www.rjlee.org...

a reply to: fuzz4262


Your list shows 40 lost aircraft and 46 damaged for a total of 86 in a month and a half during a time when when over 100K sorties were flown. With only 1 of those loses by air to air combat.

Dude that is total air superiority.

Nice try though.

This high loss is not acceptable to Russia.

True, because the sanctions have caused the Russian ability ot repair and manufacture parts or replacements to disappear.

Also, Russia's strategy is dragging the war out, make it decades if not centuries long. Because news in the western MSM have short cycles, people in the west get fed up with Ukraine news after a few years. So it becomes more and more difficult to get public support for Biden to supply weapons to Ukraine.

a reply to: fuzz4262

Just to help you out a bit, that is aprox 0.00086% losses during that month and a half and you think that amounts to high losses?

originally posted by: PatriotGames4u

I think it's still completely possible (maybe even likely) that russia will take/retake just about everything East of the dnipro river before it's over, but Ukraine can survive that if they continue fighting so intelligently (not getting trapped behind russia's pincers).

Hmmm... im not entirely convinced that Ukraine can actually survive the loss of their railway system though. Troops and civilian combatants still have to eat and be resupplied.

originally posted by: PatriotGames4u

It's a pretty complex game Ukraine is playing, they always knew they couldn't go toe to toe with the russian military, so are using their brains more often than their brawn.

It is. If it weren't for western aid they'd already be living under Russian rule, which is what i think, right from the start, Putin was counting on....that Europe and the US would do exactly zero to help or very minimal.

originally posted by: PatriotGames4u

In reality, russia already lost this war nearly 2 months ago, and what we've been watching since is russia trying to recover (while hiding what happened from the russian population).

Well, if we're talking about world sentiment, they lost the moment they crossed the border. But like previously mentioned, they are not without their trump card...it is truly the only thing saving Russia right now. As innocent as the population in Russia (most people in Russia dont want this) is, they would be living in hellscape right now were it not for their ridiculously massive nuclear and chemical weapon stockpile. And believe me, i do NOT want that for Russia... i have family and friends in Poland, Russia and Ukraine.

originally posted by: PatriotGames4u

With their current international support, short of WMDs, Ukraine is in an extremely strong position in that they can continue fighting for their own territory indefinately while getting stronger every day (even while losing ground, even significant ground).

It's why i brought up the railway. They can if they hold resupply lines...and the train is a huge part of that.

originally posted by: PatriotGames4u

russia absolutely can't survive that, and they know it better than anyone else.

Especially when most of the civilized world wont trade with them and their economy is destroyed, i agree

a reply to: fuzz4262

Maybe, but Russia best hope that when Biden is beaten in '24, that it isn't a warhawk president that gets elected. News cycles be damned, the right or wrong person in the big chair in the US, depending on your perspective, isn't going to change the current trajectory of supplies to Ukraine. In fact, they may up it or just say # it and go all in.

That's if we aren't in a WW3 situation by then anyway.

originally posted by: GAOTU789
The only answer I keep coming up with is that the state of the Russian AF is in even worse shape than the Russian ground forces.

My personal belief, is that Russia thought they would never have to really train competent pilots again. They miscalculated in believing that conventional warfare was all but a memory and that they could rely on the world still viewing them as a superpower not to be trifled with (while failing training in rusting equipment).

a reply to: GAOTU789


I've been pretty stunned by the same thing for quite a while, and have come up with a few solid (demonstrable) reasons for this, but I'm obviously still missing something important because those 'reasons' don't come close to explaining just how badly russia has failed in the air.




Here's the basics of what I've come up with so far:

(In no particular order)


Ukrainian S300s had their electronics (including acquisition, guidance, and concealment) secretly upgraded by a non NATO country prior to the war, and russia hasn't figured out how to defeat them yet (when they can even find them), which means a turkey shoot whenever russian planes get within range over 10k (russia currently has NO idea where they are located or what their range is)

Modern 'manpads', up to and including 'kamikazes' that don't require a target lock or even line of sight prior to firing were thought to be science fiction by russia prior to the war and they were 100% unprepared to deal with them (still are), which means everything from treetop to a little over 10k is being easily shot down.

U.S. recon is informing Ukraine of the exact position of every airborne russian asset, from the moment of takeoff/launch until it's destroyed.

russia apparently not only has no 'wild weasel' equivalent, they don't even appear to understand why it's critical.

moskva, and it's replacement makarov were sunk by Ukraine, causing the rest of russia's fleet to stay far enough away from the coast that they are unable to assist with their S300/S400, and this is something that russia was 100% depending on.

Ukraine prevented the use of, or destroyed, the massive russian helicopter fleet early in the war (this is a big part of how that massive convoy got trapped North of Kiev) preventing them from going after Ukraine's S300s as they had planned, or from doing much of anything else inside Ukraine.

Complete lack of 'stealth' and IR protection on EVERY aircraft russia has used in Ukraine so far, and they still don't appear to understand that flares stopped being an effective counter measure when facing western tech a very long time ago.



Most significant reason I've come up with so far:

russia appears to be completely baffled by Ukraine's new(ish) tech and tactics.

The importance of this can't be overstated, russia rarely appears to know what's hitting them, or how to properly prevent it. They are repeatedly doing the exact opposite of what they should be in just about every way, and the confusion in this area is regularly displayed in drone video and communication intercepts. This alone can break the bear's back if it continues long enough.