a reply to:
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Good question.
A lot of folks have been trying to find out where they came from since early March.
Because some were discovered prior to the moskva sinking, they probably didn't float off either moskva or makarov as they were sinking.
russia has at least 5 subs in the Black Sea right now that are each capable of deploying around 2 dozen of these exact mines per trip, so the mines
'could, have come from them, but there is no evidence that they were deployed by sub yet.
russia had 8 raptor class patrol boats at the start of they war, and these have been observed by U.S. recon manually deploying these exact mines
during training excercises near Crimea before the war, so they are at least capable, and appear to each have the capacity to carry 5-10 mines per trip
if not carrying troops. russia has lost 5 of it's 8 Raptors so far so some of the mines 'could' have floated off these, but the Raptors have been
watched pretty carefully and nobody has reported seeing them in the process of deploying any mines during the war.
Ukraine is known to have deployed a small number of anchored mines in the Marioupol and Odessa ports, but that was far fewer than the 400 or so that
are currently believed to be free floating in the Black Sea right now, and russia has been observed removing those Ukrainian mines from those 2 ports
early in the war anyway. Some of the 400 mines could have been from this group that broke free somehow before the russian ships arrived to clear
them, but there is no evidence of this yet.
These mines can also be deployed by aircraft, but Ukraine doesn't have that ability and as far as I know there isn't any evidence of russia deploying
them by air yet either.
Since they are free floating, and due to where the earliest ones were discovered, they 'could' have been deployed from Crimea, but there isn't any
evidence of this yet either, and we are almost always watching activities there.
France and at least one other country attempted to get a few ships into Marioupol's harbor at about the right time, but there is no evidence of these
ships deploying any mines, and it's highly unlikely that France would use those shoddy russian mines if they were to mine anything, which isn't
something the French are known to do. The 2 ships also aren't large enough to carry 400+ of these, and weren't near the Ukrainian coast long enough
to safely deploy 400+ of them anyway. Also, russia was closely monitoring these ships at all times and did not report any mine laying.
A real puzzle right now.
At least one country illegally deployed a large number of free floating russian made mines in the Black Sea, and that's a serious problem that needs
to be resolved.
My best guess based on what little is known, assuming that the 400+ claim turns out to be accurate, is that russia intentionally deployed them from
subs and/or aircraft, because deploying 400 during this period would have been nearly impossible for Ukraine to do, assuming they even had that many
of these mines to begin with (they certainly did have 'some' of this model though).
Since several have been retrieved intact by NATO countries, we should be able to get an answer through forensics, but nothing has been made public so
far.
Conspiracy theory level:
moskva and makarov had been intentionally deploying large numbers of these mines since the first week of the war, and these mines were stored just
below the top deck right below the forward base of the S300 mast where the Neptunes stuck moskva.
A couple dozen of these mines stored there would perfectly explain the massive unexpected explosion that moskva experienced as a result of the Neptune
strikes. The explosion ripped the massive ship in half from port to starboard, from the top deck to just above the keel. Neptunes can't do that, but
a dozen of these mines sure could.
Same could have happened to makarov, if the russians were stoopid enough to store these things on deck, a single strike from a Baraktar could easily
have sunk makarov.
If both of these ships were deploying free floating mines, it's probably safe to assume that their 5 subs were too.
But just a theory for now, nobody has released any evidence yet.
edit on 26-5-2022 by PatriotGames4u because: (no reason given)