Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 2

1 May update

Key Takeaways

* Russian occupying forces are setting conditions to allow Russia to permanently govern occupied areas in southern Ukraine, not just in Donbas.

* Ukrainian forces likely conducted a rocket artillery strike on a Russian command post in Izyum on April 30 that struck after Russian Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov had left but killed other senior Russian officers.

* Russian forces continue to make incremental advances moving southwestward in the direction of Lyman but are largely stalled against Ukrainian positions on the pre-February 24 frontline.

* Russian forces continued re-grouping and reconnaissance on the Southern Axis and did not make any confirmed advances.

More at URL above.

Cheers

SPAM REMOVED.

IMO, there are two critical takeaways from Ron Mark, the former [New Zealand] Defence Minster. First, New Zealand is doing the bare minimum to provide Ukraine assistance, and Ardern's government bowed to international pressure. In other words, New Zealand played follow the leaders, as opposed to providing Ukraine with the desperately required support. Concerning those points, as a Kiwi, I am ashamed.

Ron's hopefully comments surrounding communication among U.S./NATO members and Russian military leaders are worth considering. Defence diplomacy played a role in East Timor's independence/International Force East Timor not sparking a war between Indonesia or Australia. But neither of those countries nor the international community desired a regional conflict. But Putin and Russia are conducting a "war of annihilation" in Ukraine, so they have no interest in avoiding WW3.

* - Donetsk Oblast(10:27). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

* - Russian artillery deployed in Enerhodar shelled Ukrainian positions elsewhere overnight

* - Ukrainian Bairaktar TB2 drones destroyed 2 Russian project 03160 Raptor fastboats near Zmiiny island

* - 3 killed, 3 wounded as result of Russian shelling in last 24 hours in Luhansk region

* - Kurahove(09:24). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

* - 2 Russian missiles hit Mezhova district in Dnipropetrovsk region

* - Bakhmut(09:10). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

* - Velyka Novosilka(08:43). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

* - Donetsk Oblast(08:26). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

* - Kramatorsk(08:24). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

* - Kryvyi Rih(08:20). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

* - Air defense worked overnight in Belgorod

* - Explosions in Rylsk area of Kursk region, air defense is active

* - Fire as result of shelling of Kharkiv by Russian troops

* - 2 killed as result of Russian shelling in Orikhove in Zaporizhzhia region, 4 more wounded

* - As a result of the Russian shelling on May 1, three people killed in the Kharkiv region, eight more were injured

* - German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said in a speech in Düsseldorf that Germany will continue to supply Ukraine with weapons.

* - International Red Cross: The process of evacuating civilians from the Azovstal factory is complex and is being coordinated between the parties to the conflict and the United Nations

* - Russian troops shelled Osokorivka, Trudolyubivka, Knyazivka and Tarviyske in Kherson region

* - Russian troops attempted to advance near Ivanovka-Zahradivka, but failed

* - Russian troops have significant casualties near Staryi Saltiv in Kharkiv region - General Staff of Armed forces of Ukraine

* - Russian troops shelled Mykolaiv with MLRS Uragan with cluster ammunition

* - First 100 civilians evacuated from Azovstal

* - Railway bridge collapsed between Sudzha and Sosnovy Bor in Kursk region of Russia. Governor blames saboteurs

* - One person was killed and two were injured in the Russian shelling of the Bohodukhiv community at about 11:30 a.m.

* - Russian fleet active in Black Sea after Ukrainian attack at Zmiiny island

* - Governor of Belgorod region confirms fire and explosions at military arsenal near Tomarovka village

* - Woman wounded as result of Russian army shelling in Synelnykove district of Dnipropetrovsk region

* - Bridge in Solomino near Belgorod closed for traffic

As a reminder

Just so people know and understand. Information from war zones can become confusing as there will no doubt be info released from the players (on both sides) involved that might not necessarily be true.

As such take everything as a possibility and NOT as absolute truth.

The very first casualty in a war is the truth and all warfare is based on deception

Resources - Where most of the updates come from.
* - Flightradar24 - tracks flights worldwide
* - Live Ukraine control map 1 - updates on the ground
* - Ukraine Control Map 2
* - Ship radar
* - Military vessel tracker
* - Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Youtube resources -
* - Speak the Truth
* - War in Ukraine
* - Artur Rehi - Estonain soldier
* - Daily Report

Social media resources -
* - Twitter - Jomini of the West - Battlefield Maps

* - 26 people evacuated today from Lysychansk to Dnipro city

* - Explosions at military arsenal in Tomarovka of Belgorod region

* - Russian missile hit grain warehouse in Synelnykove district of Dnipropetrovsk region

* - Russian Su-25 in Donetsk Oblast

* - Ukrainian security service: Russian agents planned to shoot down a passenger plane over Russia or Belarus and then accuse Ukraine and its allies

* - Turkish presidential spokesman: There must be a ceasefire in Mariupol and the evacuation of wounded civilians and soldiers

* - Military echelon with howitzers

* - 19 shelling in Luhansk region in last 24 hours. 12 houses destroyed

* - 3 shelling of Kharkiv with MLRS and artillery in last 24 hours. 1 wounded in Derhachi district this morning

* - Explosions near Synelnykove

* - Russian artillery deployed in Enerhodar shelled Ukrainian positions elsewhere overnight

As a reminder

Just so people know and understand. Information from war zones can become confusing as there will no doubt be info released from the players (on both sides) involved that might not necessarily be true.

As such take everything as a possibility and NOT as absolute truth.

The very first casualty in a war is the truth and all warfare is based on deception

Resources - Where most of the updates come from.
* - Flightradar24 - tracks flights worldwide
* - Live Ukraine control map 1 - updates on the ground
* - Ukraine Control Map 2
* - Ship radar
* - Military vessel tracker
* - Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Youtube resources -
* - Speak the Truth
* - War in Ukraine
* - Artur Rehi - Estonain soldier
* - Daily Report

Social media resources -
* - Twitter - Jomini of the West - Battlefield Maps

Flightradar24

* - FORTE12 - Northrop Grumman RQ-4B Global Hawk / USAF - Patrolling Black Sea
* - NCHO134 - McDonnell Douglas KC-10A Extender / USAF - Over northeast Poland
* - 54483 - Antonov An-32P / Ukraine - Ministry of Emergency - Over Poland(??)
* - CFC4228 - Lockheed CC130J Hercules / RCAF - enroute to Rzeszow Poland
* - CL60 - Bombardier Challenger 650 / unknown - Over North, Est and South Poland doing a circuit
* - ROF1104 - Antonov An-30 / Romanian air force - Over central east Romania
* - NO CALLSIGN - Boeing 777-21HER / Russia - Commercial flight(??) over Black Sea heading towards Turkish airspace
* - DUKE46 - Sikorsky UH-60M Blackhawk / US Army - Over southeast Poland
* - YANK01 - Beech RC-12X Guardrail / US Army - Patrolling Lithuania
* - YANK02 - Beech RC-12X Guardrail / US Army - Also patrolling Lithuania
* - LNO310UA - Textron Aerosonde / UNKNOWN - unmanned aerial vehicle - Over Baltic Sea - Finnish air space
* - N21 - CASA C-295M / Finnish air force - Over northeast Finland
* - MSR3051 - Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner / Egypt - over black sea next to Crimea (something is off with this flight) - now Southwest of Sevastopol. Flight has now dropped of radar. Does NOT mean flight went down. Its just no longer showing on flightradar.
* - HKY183 - Lockheed C-130H Hercules / USAF - Over Romania heading towards Black Sea

The situation in Eastern Ukraine by the end of May 1, 2022
🔻Situation near Kharkov
▪️Fights are underway near Kharkov in Russkaya Lozovaya and Kutuzovka. The units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine tried to drive the Russian Armed Forces out of the fortified area in Tsirkuny and Cherkasskiye Tishki two days earlier, but suffered losses.
Now the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is making every effort to gain a foothold at the achieved milestone, but the Armed Forces of Ukraine are suffering heavy losses. To date, the loss of territorial defense detachments, the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the National Battalions reaches several hundred people killed and wounded.
▪️The withdrawal of forces to Russkaya Lozovaya and Tsirkuny exposed the front in Kazachya Lopan: the RF Armed Forces managed to recapture two villages of Turovo and Makarovo south of the settlement.
▪️The transfer of the most combat-ready units to Kharkov continues to carry out sabotage. According to our information, the tasks of coordinating the DRG and sabotage operations in the zone bordering Russia are assigned to officers of the British Special Airborne Service (SAS).
At the same time, reinforcements of mercenaries from the "International Legion of Territorial Defense of Ukraine" arrived in the regional center. This time we are talking about the German unit.

🔻Situation near Liman
▪️The allied forces (Russia & DPR) entrenched themselves in Aleksandrovka and Stavki. The capture of Yampol made it possible to bypass Liman from the southeastern outskirts and occupy the triangle of roads Slavyansk - Liman - Seversk. The small villages of Dibrova and Ozernoe are in the gray zone.
▪️A group of 1,000 servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has been “boiling in a cauldron” near Oskol near the reservoir for several days now.
▪️Fights are going on near Svyatogorsk, but no one has yet entered the city itself. After the capture of Alexandrovka, the fighting shifted to the forest belt at the turn of Borogodichnaya - Pine - Yarovaya. The fiercest of all skirmishes are near Bogorodichny.

🔻Situation near Popasnaya and Bakhmut
▪️Fierce battles continue in Popasnaya: the allied forces are starving the enemy, methodically grinding the arriving reinforcements. On average, the losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine per day reach 50-70 people killed and wounded, and the morale of the military personnel is dipping.

t.me...

a reply to: Grimpachi

sent you a pm

One thing I've noted in this thread is we could really use maps showing where the locations are.

Lotta work for daily reports, though.

Cheers

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2
Ive been looking at this map page quite a bit-It updates every day or so and tweets/vids from each area are put on the map at the location they happen.

maphub.net...

(some of the vids are graphic,obviously)

* - Ukraine says it destroyed Russia's Izyum command center, killing 200 but just missing Russia's top general

Ukrainian officials said an attack on a key Russian command center in the eastern city of Izyum on Saturday evening killed about 200 Russian troops, including Maj. Gen. Andrei Simonov, but just missed hitting the chief of the general staff of the Russian military, Gen. Valery Gerasimov, who had just concluded a secret visit to the army and airborne command center. Earlier, unconfirmed reports suggested Gerasimov was wounded in the strike.

Two U.S. officials tell The New York Times that Gerasimov had been in eastern Ukraine for the past couple of days, a rare step for Russia's top uniformed officer, but could not provide any information on the attack on School No. 12, Russia's Izyum command center. A senior Ukrainian official told the Times his country had learned of Gerasimov's visit to the front lines, but that the general was already returning to Russia when the rockets struck School No. 12.

"The decision to destroy this object was taken not because of Gerasimov, but because it is an important base of operations," the official said. Gerasimov is one of three key architects of Russia's Ukraine invasion, along with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.

click link for article

You would think Russians would learn not to use unsecured communications, especially after Ukraine destroyed the Russian command post in Kherson a few weeks ago.

I fully expect Ukraine at some point to attempt an assassination against Putin. Putin opened that door went he sent forces into Ukraine with the mission of killing Zelensky.

a reply to: Xcathdra

putin is to undergo surgery..perhaps the doctor will "accidentally" lose him on the table?

originally posted by: yuppa
a reply to: Xcathdra

putin is to undergo surgery..perhaps the doctor will "accidentally" lose him on the table?

one can only hope... Thus far outlets are reporting the surgery but they all are citing the one source.

a reply to: Xcathdra

Russia Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov claims Hitler was part Jewish.

Israel has reacted with fury after Russia's foreign minister claimed that Nazi leader Adolf Hitler "had Jewish blood".

Sergei Lavrov made the comments to try to justify Russia's portrayal of Ukraine as "Nazi" despite the fact that its president is Jewish.

Israel's foreign ministry summoned Russia's ambassador for "clarification" and demanded an apology.

www.bbc.com...

The depravity of The Kremlin has no end.

originally posted by: yuppa
a reply to: Xcathdra

putin is to undergo surgery..perhaps the doctor will "accidentally" lose him on the table?

I'm sure the surgeon's family will be being very carefully looked after by putin loyalists during any surgery to prevent such "accidents."

a reply to: Silcone Synapse

www.dailymail.co.uk...

There are many sources for this.

Handing power to an even more hard-line Fascist.

An updated look at Russia's military capabilities 10 weeks into Ukraine war

Russia has committed roughly two-thirds of its ground combat strength since the start of its war in Ukraine, which has gone on for nearly 10 weeks.

Russia devoted roughly 120 battalion tactical groups to its military operation, and the United Kingdom Defense Ministry said on Monday that it’s “likely” that “more than a quarter of these units have now been rendered combat ineffective.”

The latest updates from the U.K.'s Defense Ministry mirror comments from the Pentagon in recent weeks.

A senior U.S. defense official told reporters in mid-April that the Pentagon believes Russia still has roughly 75% of the capabilities that it had at the beginning of the invasion. It has 92 “operational battalion tactical groups” within Ukraine, and another 20 in Russia, though it started with between 125 and 130, the official said last week. Each BTG consists of roughly 800-1,000 service members.

click link for article

a reply to: Oldcarpy2
Yeah lets hope Mr Replacement KGB guy isn't the type to have been secretly waiting his entire career to wipeout western civilisation..

originally posted by: alldaylong

Russia Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov claims Hitler was part Jewish.

The depravity of The Kremlin has no end.

This is baffling me-Why did Lavrov say something he knew was seriously offensive to Israel?
Knowing Israel are among the top few percent producers of state of the art military technology/cyber systems-why piss them off?
Maybe they will decide to give Ukraine some fancy new toys.

a reply to: Oldcarpy2

and all the media reports say this -

a 'Kremlin insider' has claimed.

An account on telegram supposedly behind the info is a Ukrainian lawyer. Also I found an article from a couple of years ago with the exact same reporting.

Not really enough info to prove / disprove the information.

a reply to: Silcone Synapse

If I had to guess I would say its part of Russian disinfo designed to portray all Ukrainians, well at least the President, as Nazis. The other possibility is the comment was intentional because Israel is supposedly supplying Ukraine with their Iron Dome missile defense system, which would violate an agreement Israel had with Russia.

The huge meeting at Ramstein airbase in Germany included more than 40 countries and Israel was one of the nations that attended.