Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 2

30 April update

Key Takeaways

* A Ukrainian counteroffensive out of Kharkiv City will likely alleviate pressure on parts of the city that have suffered the most from Russian shelling and may force Russian troops from Izyum to re-deploy northward to support forces maintaining the partial encirclement of Kharkiv.

* Additional Russian forces are deploying to the Izyum front but are unlikely to enable any major advances.

* Russian troops did not make any confirmed advances to the southwest or southeast of Izyum or to the west of the Donetsk-Luhansk frontline.

* Russian forces in Kherson are pausing major offensive operations to improve their tactical positions and regroup to prepare for a renewed offensive to capture the administrative borders of Kherson.

* Russian occupation forces in Mariupol announced plans to consolidate their control over the city and intend to return Ukrainian citizens forcibly deported into Russia at some point in the future.

More at URL above.

Cheers

* - Donetsk Oblast(08:56). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

* - Kharkiv, Kharkivska Oblast(08:53). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

* - Lyman(08:49). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

* - Ukrainian military hit Russian positions at Zmiiny island again, destroyed equipment

* - Kryvyi Rih, Zaporizka Oblast, Dnipro, Dnipropetrovska Oblast, Poltavska Oblast(07:51). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

* - Velyka Novosilka, Kurahove(07:33). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

* - Zaporizka Oblast(06:41). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

* - Kurahove, Kryvyi Rih, Dnipro, Dnipropetrovska Oblast(06:41). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

* - Velyka Novosilka(06:39). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

* - Sumska Oblast(05:47). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

* - Donetsk Oblast, Zaporizka Oblast(05:36). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

* - Poltavska Oblast, Kharkiv, Kharkivska Oblast, Kryvyi Rih, Dnipro, Dnipropetrovska Oblast(05:34). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

* - Donetsk Oblast(01:54). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

* - 20 women and children were evacuated today from Azovstal

* - Heavy shelling at Lyman

* - Kirovohradska Oblast, Cherkaska Oblast(22:43). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

* - Kryvyi Rih, Donetsk Oblast(22:35). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

As a reminder

Just so people know and understand. Information from war zones can become confusing as there will no doubt be info released from the players (on both sides) involved that might not necessarily be true.

As such take everything as a possibility and NOT as absolute truth.

The very first casualty in a war is the truth and all warfare is based on deception

Resources - Where most of the updates come from.
* - Flightradar24 - tracks flights worldwide
* - Live Ukraine control map 1 - updates on the ground
* - Ukraine Control Map 2
* - Ship radar
* - Military vessel tracker
* - Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Youtube resources -
* - Speak the Truth
* - War in Ukraine
* - Artur Rehi - Estonain soldier
* - Daily Report

Social media resources -
* - Twitter - Jomini of the West - Battlefield Maps

* - Dnipro, Dnipropetrovska Oblast, Kharkiv, Kharkivska Oblast(22:34). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

* - Zaporizka Oblast(21:56). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

* - Confirmed: Kherson in occupied south Ukraine is now in the midst of a near-total internet blackout; real-time network data show the loss of service on multiple providers as one company says incident is "unfortunately not an accident"

* - Kharkiv, Kharkivska Oblast(20:34). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

* - Russian EMERCOM drone shot down in Donetsk region

* - As a result of the offensive, the Armed Forces regained control over four settlements in the Kharkiv region - Verkhnya Rohanka, Ruska Lozova, Slobidske and Prilesne - the General Staff of the Armed Forces

* - The runway of Odesa airport was damaged due to a Russian rocket attack on April 30. Its further use is impossible — Odesa City Council

* - Prisoners swap today: 7 military and 7 civilians, including pregnant woman released from Russian captivity today - Vice PM of Ukraine

* - Several explosions near Odesa, possible air defense interceptions

* - Chernivetska Oblast(18:15). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

* - Zakarpattia Oblast(18:13). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

* - Ternopil, Ternopilska Oblast, Lviv, Lvivska Oblast(18:11). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

* - Rivne, Rivnenska Oblast, Volynska Oblast, Kirovohradska Oblast, Ivano-Frankivsk, Ivano-Frankivska Oblast(18:09). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

As a reminder

Just so people know and understand. Information from war zones can become confusing as there will no doubt be info released from the players (on both sides) involved that might not necessarily be true.

As such take everything as a possibility and NOT as absolute truth.

The very first casualty in a war is the truth and all warfare is based on deception

Resources - Where most of the updates come from.
* - Flightradar24 - tracks flights worldwide
* - Live Ukraine control map 1 - updates on the ground
* - Ukraine Control Map 2
* - Ship radar
* - Military vessel tracker
* - Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Youtube resources -
* - Speak the Truth
* - War in Ukraine
* - Artur Rehi - Estonain soldier
* - Daily Report

Social media resources -
* - Twitter - Jomini of the West - Battlefield Maps

a reply to: Xcathdra

Looks like Odessa needs to get some experts on runways asap.

a reply to: dragonridr

yeah Zelinsky stated repairs are coming quickly.

originally posted by: Xcathdra
a reply to: tommyjo

Unless the explosions took out the ships communications room. In that instance morse code would, and most likely did, occur. The fact the crew had to abandon ship says the ship is lost Lost as in going down or taken out of action for many years.

The Morse code didn't really happen. The distress message as reported would have been by voice to nearby ships for assistance. The claims of Morse code from Moskva sending an SOS is just silly made up nonsense from the internet by this guy.

I was monitoring the Black Sea Fleet Morse code ship to shore frequencies at the time. There was no increase in cipher traffic. That only happened after the Moskva event as they deployed ship and started communicating with those ships. The guy on Twitter was just trying to claim his 15 minutes of fame.

OSINT88 Twitter post

originally posted by: tommyjo
The Morse code didn't really happen. The distress message as reported would have been by voice to nearby ships for assistance. The claims of Morse code from Moskva sending an SOS is just silly made up nonsense from the internet by this guy.

Probably worth pointing out that the Russian navy still use Morse for communication. So, it could be true.

Holy Smokes this has to be the most senior Russian injured in Ukraine so far-

Reports are out that say Russias Chief of the general staff of the armed forces was njured by shrapnel and med evaced back to Russia-

The 66-year-old Russian general received a shrapnel wound in the upper third of the right leg without a bone fracture. The shrapnel was removed; there is no danger to his life.
Army General Gerasimov and other officers were sitting at the command post, which got hit by an accurate strike of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. According to preliminary information, 20 officers were killed.

report.az...

Another source-

Vladimir Putin’s top military commander was 'wounded and flown out of the war zone', it has been claimed.
The Chief of the Russian General Staff Valery Gerasimov had been sent by Putin to take personal control of his push to grab territory in Donbas and eastern Ukraine.
The unconfirmed, reports claim is that Gerasimov, 66, was wounded in Izyum in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region, which is at the centre of intense fighting.

www.mirror.co.uk...

More about the guy-

Valery Vasilyevich Gerasimov; born 8 September 1955) is a Russian army general serving as the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces and First Deputy Defence Minister, replacing Nikolay Makarov.
He was appointed by president Vladimir Putin on 9 November 2012.

en.wikipedia.org...


Anyone following this thread may remember way back in the early days-there was a different General Gerasimov who was killed and for a while some were thinking it was this boss guy.

This incident-if reports are accurate,may not be life threatening for the general,but hes off the battlefield and I bet it will piss putin off a real treat.

a reply to: Silcone Synapse

Didn't take long for the Ukrainians to play tag with him.

Cheers

originally posted by: Silcone Synapse
This incident-if reports are accurate,may not be life threatening for the general,but hes off the battlefield and I bet it will piss putin off a real treat.

I'm thinking if this attack actually happened the only thing they flew home was a corpse and a story.

a reply to: AugustusMasonicus
Could be right there-The report say 20 other officers were killed in the attack so it must have been serious.
Probably 20 high level commanders meeting with the boss general..
A big blow to the russians.
Wonder how Ukraine found out about the meeting?

originally posted by: Silcone Synapse
Could be right there-The report say 20 other officers were killed in the attack so it must have been serious.
Probably 20 high level commanders meeting with the boss general.

Which is why I don't think this guy miraculously survived.

Wonder how Ukraine found out about the meeting?

The Russians have been notoriously sloppy with their comms so far, it wouldn't surprise me if the Ukraine or US sources were able to pick up signals traffic and relay this.

Either way, if true this guy is off the board regardless and that's a serious blow.

originally posted by: Silcone Synapse
a reply to: AugustusMasonicus
Could be right there-The report say 20 other officers were killed in the attack so it must have been serious.
Probably 20 high level commanders meeting with the boss general..
A big blow to the russians.
Wonder how Ukraine found out about the meeting?

They have spies in Russian security services. Notice every time Putin sets up a plan like the capture of Zelenski or the airport capture Ukrainians are there to ruin it. Either they are the luckiest army on the planet or they are getting very solid intel on Russian deployments beforehand.

a reply to: AugustusMasonicus

Kind of an understatement without senior officers this will fall apart within a couple of weeks. After watching looks like Kharkiv is now liberated they all but stopped Russian advances. And those howitzers about half are now being used by Ukraine that in itself will be a game-changer. Now we just have to see how many lives Putin wants to waste on both sides before he realizes he lost.

originally posted by: dragonridr

originally posted by: Silcone Synapse
a reply to: AugustusMasonicus
Could be right there-The report say 20 other officers were killed in the attack so it must have been serious.
Probably 20 high level commanders meeting with the boss general..
A big blow to the russians.
Wonder how Ukraine found out about the meeting?

They have spies in Russian security services. Notice every time Putin sets up a plan like the capture of Zelenski or the airport capture Ukrainians are there to ruin it. Either they are the luckiest army on the planet or they are getting very solid intel on Russian deployments beforehand.

I've noticed since early in the invasion.

It has to be a LOT more than one spy, Ukraine appears to be getting good intel from all over the russian government and military.

originally posted by: dragonridr
Either they are the luckiest army on the planet or they are getting very solid intel on Russian deployments beforehand.

Russia's fighting a 20th century war against a 21st century opponent who knows the ground. Plus, I imagine, a free-flow of intel from the US and the UK who are probably listening in to all Russian comms, helped by poor discipline of the rank and file.

a reply to: AugustusMasonicus

If look on Flight radar tracker can see USAF/ARMY sigint aircraft flying around edges of Ukraine monitoring electronic siginals
from area

USAF RC135 Rivet Joint is code name for one such aircraft , also R12 Army (Beech King Air)

Other NATO countries and several non NATO (Sweden/Finland( also have aircraft up monitoring the situation

Locations of signals can be feed to the Ukes .........

a reply to: Silcone Synapse
That makes me wonder how bad it would have to get before the Russian generals refuse to deploy.

So:

* Putin is reportedly to undergo surgery.

* Gerasimov is reportedly wounded and evacuated to Moscow.

* The Donbass offensive is largely stalled.

I wonder if we're on the cusp of dramatic change, not necessarily positive.

Cheers