Russia Ukraine Update Thread

originally posted by: Xcathdra
a reply to: ISeekTruth101

Considering the article is from July 18th 2021 it seems they forgot what the learned from the war in Georgia (2008) and Syria (2015).

Are there any parts of the article you disagree with?

a reply to: wordforword

That pic is starting to look a bit questionable. My Ukrainian friend sent me this one recently that shows how the "victim" used in those news articles is actually a instagram model. On the top left picture in this collasion I'm showing below, she is visiting the Sulemaniye mosque in Instanbul, but look at the date, it was taken over a month ago in January this year. Is it possible for her stomach to grow that much in just 1,5 months?



This is her instagram below. You can check the dates yourself.
www.instagram.com...

Next few days will see how the stalled column handles temperatures that may go below zero (Fahrenheit, down to -20 Centigrade).

I expect the troops will not want to freeze and will drain vehicle gas tanks for fuel to burn -- worsening the fuel availability situation.

Irony is that normally frozen ground would benefit a Russian advance, but with fuel supply issues, they'll have to carefully prioritize which units move and engage in offensive actions.

Operational situation seems to be one of stalemate with the Russians losing steam, yet strong enough to hold onto what they've seized.

The Ukrainians need to keep steady pressure on the Russians to motivate them to negotiate in better faith than they have thus far.

The potential for "frozen conflict" is not to be dismissed.

If Putin remains in power, I see a purge of the Russian generals on the way. Maybe some of the admirals as well.

Cheers

a reply to: ISeekTruth101

Aside from logistics, the Russians might have misjudged or read too much into their intervention in Syria. First, the Syrian Civil War's character is chalk and cheese compared to the conflict in Ukraine. In Syria, the rise of non-state actors and clans of butchers rose to prominence. For instance, those clans probably didn't have access to air defences or artillery.

Also, they likely drew the wrong lessons from the employment of firepower in urban areas. Welcome to what happens if one doesn't understand the nature of aberrations in military history, the issues with up-scaling existing tactics against a conventional enemy, the absence of realistic assessments of airpower/firepower on the ground, and not studying military history.

a reply to: xpert11

It seems the current culture within the Russian military is one of "yes men". The guys down low know not to tell the ugly truth, and the lies get more and more polished as they go up the chain of command.

The problem with that is that war is the ultimate unforgiving reality for military training, doctrine, and equipment.

Cheers

originally posted by: F2d5thCavv2
a reply to: xpert11

It seems the current culture within the Russian military is one of "yes men". The guys down low know not to tell the ugly truth, and the lies get more and more polished as they go up the chain of command.

The problem with that is that war is the ultimate unforgiving reality for military training, doctrine, and equipment.

Cheers

On that note, I wonder how many Russian oligarchs told Putin his military hardware was being R&D’d to the top tier, basically telling him what he wanted to hear. Hence the utter failure of his equipment.

originally posted by: F2d5thCavv2
Next few days will see how the stalled column handles temperatures that may go below zero (Fahrenheit, down to -20 Centigrade).

Putin's timing in relation to invading Ukraine is bizarre. Invading Ukraine in the northern hemisphere spring would have avoided those issues.

I expect the troops will not want to freeze and will drain vehicle gas tanks for fuel to burn -- worsening the fuel availability situation.

In that situation, the fires would advertise the position of Russian troops to Ukrainian forces. But, likely, Russian ground forces aren't equipped with winter clothing. Ironically, the Russians could suffer the same winter conditions that froze out Hitler and Napoleon's invasion of their country.

Operational situation seems to be one of stalemate with the Russians losing steam, yet strong enough to hold onto what they've seized.

I suspect both sides are resupplying and replacing causalities with reinforcements arriving at front line units.

If Putin remains in power, I see a purge of the Russian generals on the way. Maybe some of the admirals as well.

Putin, like Stalin, will eventually learn the value of appointing military professionals over political cronies and puppets.

originally posted by: F2d5thCavv2
Next few days will see how the stalled column handles temperatures that may go below zero (Fahrenheit, down to -20 Centigrade).

I expect the troops will not want to freeze and will drain vehicle gas tanks for fuel to burn -- worsening the fuel availability situation.



Cheers

Has anyone ever seen these supposed troops in the supposed "stalled" 40-mile long Column?.

My guess is Putin has dumped his military garbage inside Ukraine. Like in a chess game, he's trying to draw out the Ukrainian air force. He's sacrificing his # pawns in an attempt to draw out and expose the Kings guardians.

If Ukraine is stupid enough to attempt an attack on this convoy of obsolete military vehicles/pawns (who, btw, are sitting doing absolutely no damage whatsoever) then Ukraine will lose every Rook, Bishop, Castle, and Knight they throw at it.

It's a trap.

originally posted by: Gin
a reply to: wordforword

That pic is starting to look a bit questionable. My Ukrainian friend sent me this one recently that shows how the "victim" used in those news articles is actually a instagram model. On the top left picture in this collasion I'm showing below, she is visiting the Sulemaniye mosque in Instanbul, but look at the date, it was taken over a month ago in January this year. Is it possible for her stomach to grow that much in just 1,5 months?



This is her instagram below. You can check the dates yourself.
www.instagram.com...

This is an enlarged picture of a woman on the strecher.
Reddit

You really think these two are the same woman?

There's a video for you if you want to see the full devastation of bombings in Mariupol...
Twitter

Drone footage of a Russian tank column being ambushed

Geolocated

Translation: Nitro, this is Udar. Nitro, this is Udar. Listening to you. - Udar, this is Nitro. 6th regiment is almost lost. - What? - 6th regiment, can't report yet. Still gather them. Casualties are huge. They were waiting. The head of column was ambushed, commander was killed.

a reply to: Soloprotocol

Not confident of that. His military has problems, period. The "elite" airborne forces got wiped out when they attempted to seize Gostomel (which would have been the base for a swift entry into Kiev.) If one "elite" got beaten, there is little reason to think there is some 'hidden elite' which will miraculously deliver Putin victory. If such a force existed, it would have already exerted its might. Also unimpressed by the "elite" Wagner/Liga unit that has failed to bring home the bacon; ditto the "fierce Chechens" who apparently are so disliked that someone in Moscow betrayed their location to Ukrainian authorities.

I don't doubt that the Russian military has kept troops they consider reliable back in Russia. And they might be reliable if defending Russian turf. But equally, their military has never been known for great performances in wars of conquest. And that characteristic is once again being asserted.

Regarding the convoy, they'll have to do something at some point. Either retreat, Choisin Reservoir-style to areas in which they can be more easily supplied and rested ... or try to push forward regardless of losses. Either option is unattractive.

Cheers

originally posted by: ISeekTruth101

originally posted by: Xcathdra
a reply to: ISeekTruth101

Considering the article is from July 18th 2021 it seems they forgot what the learned from the war in Georgia (2008) and Syria (2015).

Are there any parts of the article you disagree with?

i am just saying, given the current status in Ukraine, they forgot what they learned in Georgia and Syria.

originally posted by: Xcathdra

originally posted by: ISeekTruth101

originally posted by: Xcathdra
a reply to: ISeekTruth101

Considering the article is from July 18th 2021 it seems they forgot what the learned from the war in Georgia (2008) and Syria (2015).

Are there any parts of the article you disagree with?

i am just saying, given the current status in Ukraine, they forgot what they learned in Georgia and Syria.

Well every military conflict is different, so many factors involved. It seems a lot of people are heavily relying on the updates coming directly from NATO, USA, western media outlets and Ukraine .

I’m seeing too many inconsistencies in what they report and the actions they are taking. But 2.5 Million wouldnt have fled Ukraine if Russia is on the losing side and as ineffective as the media portrays them to be.

Thats an unheard off magnitude of migration in a short span of time. But all I am reading from the other side is Russia is defeated, failing, out of money, out of resources, 12,000 dead, swathes of military hardware destroyed. Ghost of Kiev shooting down 10 russian jets singlehanded.

And I’m thinking, Russia is second to non in anti aircraft and surface to air tech. Like they would allow Ukraine jets having that much success. The first thing they did was destroy all Major Ukranian airports and airfields... and we have evidence of the Antonov 225 destruction just for reference.

originally posted by: F2d5thCavv2
a reply to: Soloprotocol

Not confident of that. His military has problems, period. The "elite" airborne forces got wiped out when they attempted to seize Gostomel (which would have been the base for a swift entry into Kiev.) If one "elite" got beaten, there is little reason to think there is some 'hidden elite' which will miraculously deliver Putin victory. If such a force existed, it would have already exerted its might. Also unimpressed by the "elite" Wagner/Liga unit that has failed to bring home the bacon; ditto the "fierce Chechens" who apparently are so disliked that someone in Moscow betrayed their location to Ukrainian authorities.

I don't doubt that the Russian military has kept troops they consider reliable back in Russia. And they might be reliable if defending Russian turf. But equally, their military has never been known for great performances in wars of conquest. And that characteristic is once again being asserted.

Regarding the convoy, they'll have to do something at some point. Either retreat, Choisin Reservoir-style to areas in which they can be more easily supplied and rested ... or try to push forward regardless of losses. Either option is unattractive.

Cheers

Time will tell.

originally posted by: ISeekTruth101

Now if Ukraine where an enemy of Russia,

They certainly are now.

originally posted by: ISeekTruth101

and the circumstance of the invasion was different...

But it isn't so....

originally posted by: ISeekTruth101

Russia is barely using its peak military strength, they have plenty of missiles and aircraft and thermobaric bombs to turn a country into ash before we even get into tactical nuclear weapons.

What don't they have though?

The money to resupply themselves once they expend that. And if they haven't accomplished their goal by then, all they've done is shoot a .22 LR at a moose and pissed it off.

originally posted by: McGinty

Each day I’m more convinced that Biden doesn’t want this war to end.

Truthfully, I would be hard pressed to believe that. Biden is a bleeding heart and, ultimately, an appeaser....I think it's more likely the warhawks in D.C. dont want it to end far more than Biden not wanting it to end.

Joe Biden is the Bob Ross of government. Happy little trees, happy little leaves....

originally posted by: alphabetaone

originally posted by: ISeekTruth101

Now if Ukraine where an enemy of Russia,

They certainly are now.

originally posted by: ISeekTruth101

and the circumstance of the invasion was different...

But it isn't so....

originally posted by: ISeekTruth101

Russia is barely using its peak military strength, they have plenty of missiles and aircraft and thermobaric bombs to turn a country into ash before we even get into tactical nuclear weapons.

What don't they have though?

The money to resupply themselves once they expend that. And if they haven't accomplished their goal by then, all they've done is shoot a .22 LR at a moose and pissed it off.

They amassed 650 billion in cash and gold reserves. Over a long period of time, one of the biggest physical gold reserves globally.

Now supposedly the west have frozen half of those assets. But I don’t believe Putin went into Ukraine without resources to supply him. This isn’t the first time he has been sanctioned, the reason he ammassed that fortune was a lesson learned from Crimea to limit his exposure to sanctions.

Putin sounds extremely smart when probed by difficult, hard stance western journalists. He has demonstrated that he has more braincells than the past few US presidents combined, at least thats what can be inferred from how they all carry themselves and respond to difficult questions. With Biden and Trump avoiding most all together.

As of now, Russia isn’t broke. Until they are, we can talk about how Putin failed.

originally posted by: ISeekTruth101

originally posted by: Xcathdra

originally posted by: ISeekTruth101

originally posted by: Xcathdra
a reply to: ISeekTruth101

Considering the article is from July 18th 2021 it seems they forgot what the learned from the war in Georgia (2008) and Syria (2015).

Are there any parts of the article you disagree with?

i am just saying, given the current status in Ukraine, they forgot what they learned in Georgia and Syria.

Well every military conflict is different, so many factors involved. It seems a lot of people are heavily relying on the updates coming directly from NATO, USA, western media outlets and Ukraine .

I’m seeing too many inconsistencies in what they report and the actions they are taking. But 2.5 Million wouldnt have fled Ukraine if Russia is on the losing side and as ineffective as the media portrays them to be.

Thats an unheard off magnitude of migration in a short span of time. But all I am reading from the other side is Russia is defeated, failing, out of money, out of resources, 12,000 dead, swathes of military hardware destroyed. Ghost of Kiev shooting down 10 russian jets singlehanded.

And I’m thinking, Russia is second to non in anti aircraft and surface to air tech. Like they would allow Ukraine jets having that much success. The first thing they did was destroy all Major Ukranian airports and airfields... and we have evidence of the Antonov 225 destruction just for reference.

The problem is they are missing:
Cruise missile strike misses

And then you have events like today that just show total incompetence by their armored columns:
Armor column ambushed

I think the truth is somewhere in the middle. Russia is continuing to advance slowly but is struggling. Ukraine is putting up a good fight and having some successes but likely to lose a conventional war in the long run. Analysts are scratching their heads why Russia is losing so many aircraft and not achieving air supremacy. It may because of significant western anti-air manpads and Russia's lack of precision guided weaponry that force them to fly low to drop conventional bombs. Can Russia take Kiev? Well, many analysts say they do not have the manpower to encircle the city and are stretched thin as it is. It is likely to be a long, bloody, bombardment, especially if they can't cut off Kiev's supply lines completely.

originally posted by: ISeekTruth101

They amassed 650 billion in cash and gold reserves. Over a long period of time, one of the biggest physical gold reserves globally.

I guess that's why Putin goes on record internationally pleading for sanctions to stop, because they're in great shape economically.

originally posted by: ISeekTruth101

But I don’t believe Putin went into Ukraine without resources to supply him.

Except if his people start falling ill from lack of sustenance. We live in a world where 650 billion doesnt go quite as far as it used to. Besides, with almost the entire world banning anything Russian, where is he gonna trade that gold? Those reserves? You cant eat gold, and you cant load gold into thermobaric chambers.

originally posted by: ISeekTruth101

This isn’t the first time he has been sanctioned, the reason he ammassed that fortune was a lesson learned from Crimea to limit his exposure to sanctions.

I would say its pretty clear he has not learned a damn thing.

originally posted by: ISeekTruth101

He has demonstrated that he has more braincells than the past few US presidents combined, at least thats what can be inferred from how they all carry themselves and respond to difficult questions. With Biden and Trump avoiding most all together.

I've seen some 8 year olds do the same. Not exactly a high bar to achieve. But the world runs counter to Putin's BS, not just the US. So i guess it seems you only believe Russia is smart. Makes me wonder where your allegiance lies. Were you a fan of hitler too?

originally posted by: ISeekTruth101

As of now, Russia isn’t broke. Until they are, we can talk about how Putin failed.

Russia has already failed, the world will have nothing to do with Russia (more specifically Putin while he remains in power)...the outcome of Special Operation Comrade Commando is pretty secondary.

originally posted by: Bugman82

originally posted by: ISeekTruth101

originally posted by: Xcathdra

originally posted by: ISeekTruth101

originally posted by: Xcathdra
a reply to: ISeekTruth101

Considering the article is from July 18th 2021 it seems they forgot what the learned from the war in Georgia (2008) and Syria (2015).

Are there any parts of the article you disagree with?

i am just saying, given the current status in Ukraine, they forgot what they learned in Georgia and Syria.

Well every military conflict is different, so many factors involved. It seems a lot of people are heavily relying on the updates coming directly from NATO, USA, western media outlets and Ukraine .

I’m seeing too many inconsistencies in what they report and the actions they are taking. But 2.5 Million wouldnt have fled Ukraine if Russia is on the losing side and as ineffective as the media portrays them to be.

Thats an unheard off magnitude of migration in a short span of time. But all I am reading from the other side is Russia is defeated, failing, out of money, out of resources, 12,000 dead, swathes of military hardware destroyed. Ghost of Kiev shooting down 10 russian jets singlehanded.

And I’m thinking, Russia is second to non in anti aircraft and surface to air tech. Like they would allow Ukraine jets having that much success. The first thing they did was destroy all Major Ukranian airports and airfields... and we have evidence of the Antonov 225 destruction just for reference.

The problem is they are missing:
Cruise missile strike misses

And then you have events like today that just show total incompetence by their armored columns:
Armor column ambushed

I think the truth is somewhere in the middle. Russia is continuing to advance slowly but is struggling. Ukraine is putting up a good fight and having some successes but likely to lose a conventional war in the long run. Analysts are scratching their heads why Russia is losing so many aircraft and not achieving air supremacy. It may because of significant western anti-air manpads and Russia's lack of precision guided weaponry that force them to fly low to drop conventional bombs. Can Russia take Kiev? Well, many analysts say they do not have the manpower to encircle the city and are stretched thin as it is. It is likely to be a long, bloody, bombardment, especially if they can't cut off Kiev's supply lines completely.

The first link you shared from twitter just shows a random missile crates supposedly from ISKENDER missile. We have no idea where that location really is and cant verify it. Anyone can fabricate an image like that, I can do a better job using Microsoft Paint Application. Proves nothing!

The second link you shared shows random footage with cutscenes that give no real context of whats happened or happening, that footage could have been taken from any country from any time period. I saw a video on twitter of a large explosion in Ukraine being claimed as russia munitions but it turned out to be old footage of a gas explosion in China, but most people in comments section fell for it until it was correctly identified: