Russia Ukraine Update Thread

originally posted by: seagull


The Russians may be, may be mind you, coming to the realization, a rather painful one apparently, that they can not defeat Ukraine in a timely manner.

The geographical size of Ukraine is one factor that prevented a quick Russian victory.

Unrest in the civil population seems to be growing, in spite of draconian attempts to stifle it, within the borders of Russia. With the ruble crashing into virtual non-existance against the dollar...last I saw it was something along the lines of 80 percent of a penny. You're going to have line up a whole bunch of 'em to buy a loaf of bread--much less anything to go with said bread.

The effects of Russia's military aggression on Ukrainian nationalism is perhaps easily overlooked. The Gallipoli campaign ignited Turkish nationalism, and Russia is doing the same thing in Ukraine.

If the Ukraine can hold them off for a month or two more, the economic catastrophe will force the Russians to the stark realization that they aren't the Big Bad Bear they once were.

I suspect that Putin will revert Russia to a Soviet-style internal and command economy. Indeed, those Soviet-era bread lines will make a comeback. Eventually, the Russian economy will fall, but WW3 has probably started in the interim.

* - US Commerce Secretary threatens sanctions against China if its companies breach Russia sanctions

* - .@USArmy has deployed two MIM104 Patriot antimissile batteries stationed in Europe to Rzeszów-Jasionka Airport, Poland to protect U.S., Polish and other allied troops in the country, March 9, 2022

* - "The Kremlin is intentionally spreading outright lies that the United States and Ukraine are conducting chemical and biological weapons activities in Ukraine. We have also seen PRC officials echo these conspiracy theories," says @StateDeptSpox, mirroring White House language

* - Ukrainian forces repelled Russian army attack in Brovary district of Kyiv region

* - Russian tanks destroyed near Borodyanka, Kyiv region in artillery strike

* - FM @DmytroKuleba has started his visit to Turkey where will take part in the talks on Russia ceasing its hostilities and ending its war against Ukraine

* - UK says there's been a "notable decrease in overall Russian air activity over Ukraine in recent days, likely due to the unexpected effectiveness & endurance of Ukrainian Air Defence"

* - Russian MFA announced withdrawal from Council of Europe

* - The bombing of a hospital in Mariupol killed three people, including one child, according to updated information by Mariupol City Council

* - Poland's border guards: 1.4 million people have entered from Ukraine since the start of the war

* - British Defense: Top Russian leaders will face trial for war crimes

* - SBU building in Chuhuiv was targeted, nearby houses were also damaged Kharkiv oblast

* - Sumy, Vinnytsia(10:08). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

* - Video: Ukrainian TB2 drone targeted Russian armored vehicle

* - Photo: Ukrainian army destroyed Russian tank

* - Meeting between FMs of Ukraine and Russia started in Antalya, Turkey

* - Lukashenka and Putin had phone call yesterday, discussed situation at Chornobyl Nuclear Plant

* - Kharkiv(10:34). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

* - Dnipro(10:34). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

* - President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey said on Wednesday that he hoped the meeting between Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov of Russia and his Ukrainian counterpart, Dmytro Kuleba, would "crack the door open to a permanent cease-fire"

* - Roman Abramovich has been sanctioned by the Government and his asserts - including Chelsea Football Club - have been frozen Chelsea have been given a special licence to continue with football related activities but the sale effectively bars the sale of the club

* - Liz Truss:I have announced a full asset freeze and travel ban on seven more of Russia's wealthiest and most influential oligarchs, including Abramovich and Deripaska. Also: Sechin, Lebedev, Miller, Kostin and Tokarev

* - Russian airstrike in Korosten', Zhytomyr region. 1 killed, several wounded

* - Chernihiv(11:20). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

As a reminder -

Just so people know and understand. Information from war zones can become confusing as there will no doubt be info released from the players (on both sides) involved that might not necessarily be true.

As such take everything as a possibility and NOT as absolute truth.

The very first casualty in a war is the truth and all warfare is based on deception

originally posted by: xpert11
The geographical size of Ukraine is one factor that prevented a quick Russian victory.

Or its because of -
* - Ukrainian resistance
* - Russia used conscripts
* - Russian maintenance money stolen
* - Russia bit off more than they could chew


One other thing I noticed. Putin goes on TV and tells everyone conscripts were not used. That wound mean the Russian forces in Ukraine were the trained experienced soldiers.

So in other words Putin told the world his military sucks and could not take Kyiv (in the 5 days he bragged about in 2014 after Crimea). I see why Putin always threatens nuclear war. One would think Putin would check his nuclear forces and see if they are up to date and that his advisors simply werent lying about them (like they did about their actions in Ukraine and the Russian military).

a reply to: Xcathdra

There is more than one element in play concerning the Russian military's poor performance in Ukraine. But distance provides logistical planners with matters for their consideration. Another standpoint might interest you The Pattern of War is resuming in Ukraine.

Don't walk into the trap of thinking that Russia's military won't improve. The only question is when that occurs, and who is the next General Zhukov.

originally posted by: seagull
a reply to: wordforword

The Russians may be, may be mind you, coming to the realization, a rather painful one apparently, that they can not defeat Ukraine in a timely manner.

Unrest in the civil population seems to be growing, in spite of draconian attempts to stifle it, within the borders of Russia. With the ruble crashing into virtual non-existance against the dollar...last I saw it was something along the lines of 80 percent of a penny. You're going to have line up a whole bunch of 'em to buy a loaf of bread--much less anything to go with said bread.

If the Ukraine can hold them off for a month or two more, the economic catastrophe will force the Russians to the stark realization that they aren't the Big Bad Bear they once were.

Yes, Putin has opened a totally new can of worms for his citizens to deal with However, just a hypothetical question here. Which is more likely to happen at this point: Putin overthrowing the government of Ukraine or the people of Russia overthrowing Putin?

I just don't think anymore that Putin is favoring to continue this for one more month or even two. Therefore, negotiations are in process.

According to some, this had to be a 3 day 'thing.' And, yet, according to the others it will last way into the summer.

I recommend to have a browse around the comments of this thread on Reddit:
Whistle blower predicting the Russian army failure

Take it with the grain of salt, like with everything that's coming out under 'whistle blower' cover.

Russia Says They Won't Overthrow Zelensky, Occupy Ukraine

Russia has said it does not intend to overthrow President Volodymyr Zelensky's government nor occupy Ukraine.

Using the Kremlin terminology for the war, Russian foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said the goals of Russia's "special military operation" were "the protection" of the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk people's republics in the Donbas region.

click link for article

There are a few conclusions one can come to regarding this info. Russia is trying to claw his way out of sanctions by pretending to go down the peace path (The Russian/Ukrainian foreign ministers are meeting in Turkey for talks). The other possibility is Russia is trying to find a way out of Putins mess that would save face.

The Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman seems to be issuing statement that directly contradict Putin.

She told a briefing on Wednesday that Russia's tasks "do not include either the occupation of Ukraine or the destruction of its statehood, nor the overthrow of the current government," according to state-owned news agency Tass.

Either way I still think Putin is done...

originally posted by: seagull
a reply to: wordforword

The Russians may be, may be mind you, coming to the realization, a rather painful one apparently, that they can not defeat Ukraine in a timely manner.

Unrest in the civil population seems to be growing, in spite of draconian attempts to stifle it, within the borders of Russia. With the ruble crashing into virtual non-existance against the dollar...last I saw it was something along the lines of 80 percent of a penny. You're going to have line up a whole bunch of 'em to buy a loaf of bread--much less anything to go with said bread.

If the Ukraine can hold them off for a month or two more, the economic catastrophe will force the Russians to the stark realization that they aren't the Big Bad Bear they once were.

I don’t think you’ve taken into account that Russia isn’t lashing out at a nation so much as it is trying to invade, capture, and install a pro kremlin regime in a nation that neighbours Russia closely that sits on their physical border. This is why It has become drawn out, Russians thought with their efficiency they could manoeuvre all the military assets in with little resistance. So its their efficiency that let them down in Ukraine.

They still have to live alongside the Ukranian people, it wouldnt have been favourable at all to go into Ukraine all guns blazing... Russian units are obeying traffic signals in Ukraine for goodness sake!!!

Now if Ukraine where an enemy of Russia, and the circumstance of the invasion was different... Russia would turn Ukraine into a parking lot in days without the use of Nuclear weapons.

Russia is barely using its peak military strength, they have plenty of missiles and aircraft and thermobaric bombs to turn a country into ash before we even get into tactical nuclear weapons.

a reply to: xpert11

I will have to check it out (thanks). As for mobility and warfare, Ukraine is taking great advantage of it. They have assembled units that are small, extremely mobile and made up of people from the areas in question. The Ukrainian teams set up ambushes in areas they know well (geography of the area) and hit the Russian units / convoys with devastating results and then blend back into the country side (in a way it reminds me of our revolutionary war as well as our war in Vietnam).

a reply to: ISeekTruth101

If you don't think targeting civilians in urban areas with firepower isn't lashing out, what would meet that criteria? Russian army units following local road signs result from a lack of map reading and navigation training. Besides, placing misleading or removal of road signs is an old trick.

There is a simple reason why the Russians are unlikely to use nukes in Ukraine and that it would prevent them from using the country as a staging area for invading western Europe. However, if I am incorrect, and the sanctions regime is Putin's demise, all options might be on the table.

originally posted by: xpert11
a reply to: Xcathdra

There is more than one element in play concerning the Russian military's poor performance in Ukraine. But distance provides logistical planners with matters for their consideration. Another standpoint might interest you The Pattern of War is resuming in Ukraine.

Don't walk into the trap of thinking that Russia's military won't improve. The only question is when that occurs, and who is the next General Zhukov.

Russia has already made significant changes and overhauls of their military equipment. They’ve optimised their military structure. All as a result of the lessons learned from the Georgia incursion, Crimea and their time spent in Syria testing their new systems and enhancements:

UK Defence Journal

ukdefencejournal.org.uk...

originally posted by: xpert11
a reply to: ISeekTruth101

If you don't think targeting civilians in urban areas with firepower isn't lashing out, what would meet that criteria? Russian army units following local road signs result from a lack of map reading and navigation training. Besides, placing misleading or removal of road signs is an old trick.

There is a simple reason why the Russians are unlikely to use nukes in Ukraine and that it would prevent them from using the country as a staging area for invading western Europe. However, if I am incorrect, and the sanctions regime is Putin's demise, all options might be on the table.

No I meant stopping at traffic light signals to let civilians pass.

As for the civilian casualties and bombing we dont have enougj evidence there is too much disinformation and propaganda out there at the moment with all western media outlets from Australia to Europe to America perpetuating and peddling the same disinformation in unison.

a reply to: xpert11

Talking about 'lashing out':

a reply to: ISeekTruth101

thats what I said at the start
ALl putin had to do was say that terrorist were found to have had yellow cake in Donbass or Lugansk
and the west would have had to hold their hands up and let him go in

you know how we did that before and everyone bought it

we were already the bad guys we replaced russia afer the cold war

a reply to: wordforword

It will last into the summer
as there is more money to be made

I wouldnt be surprised if the militaries arent out testing new exotic weapons in a live theatre
since humanity is just straight up ok with human testing again

a reply to: ISeekTruth101

Russian military modernisation is relatively limited in the context of the Ukraine war. The Russian Army is road-bound and employs Cold War-era military hardware. Also, Remaining on sealed roads and neglecting rear area security limits Russia's westward advances.

Moreover, if vehicles are confined roads, they are easier to locate more prone to ambush, airstrikes, and artillery fire.

The Russian Army's manoeuvre capabilities are tied to Ukraine's road network. Lastly, the Russian Air Force and Navy will play a more prominent role in the broader war against western Europe, but that is for the future.

originally posted by: sapien82
a reply to: ISeekTruth101

thats what I said at the start
ALl putin had to do was say that terrorist were found to have had yellow cake in Donbass or Lugansk
and the west would have had to hold their hands up and let him go in

you know how we did that before and everyone bought it

we were already the bad guys we replaced russia afer the cold war

I tend to agree, Putin took a different route with the whole liberating of donetsk and luhansk. Guess Putin just isnt into the whole “pretending” and beating around the bush thing as much as USA/NATO. He might as well use their own playbook against them seeing as the whole world is used to it now.

Superbioweapons lab in Ukraine we’re going in for Peace keeping operations but no matter how Putin went into Ukraine and under whatever justified reason he gave USA and NATO woukd instantly find a way to undermine the whole operation fabricating a lie such as “we caught Russia funneling oil out of Ukraine when they said they were looking for bioweapons... was it all a ruse?” “Did russia pull the wool over our eyes”? “How much peace keeping has Russia actually achieved?”

So its all moot really, media is the most powerful weapon in the world and the billionaires that own them know that.

This is not going to work, is it?

Foreign Minister Kuleba met with his Russian counterpart Lavrov in an attempt to broker a 24-hour ceasefire & a humanitarian corridor to the southern port city of Mariupol, encircled by Russian troops.

Kuleba: “I came here with a humanitarian purpose, to walk out of the meeting with a decision to arrange a humanitarian corridor to and from Mariupol.”
"Russia is not in a position at this point to establish a ceasefire. They seek a surrender from Ukraine. This is not what they're going to get. Ukraine is strong, Ukraine is fighting."
Kuleba said they didn’t reach an agreement with Lavrov.

Foreign Minister Kuleba says he’s ready to meet again with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov “if there will be prospects to a solution.”

Source

UK government announces it will sanction Roman Abramovich

so if the UK government are sanctioning Russia businessmen and Oligarchs and Russia itself

who is going to fund the next election campaign for the conservatives

Every cloud has a silver lining eh

a reply to: ISeekTruth101

Considering the article is from July 18th 2021 it seems they forgot what the learned from the war in Georgia (2008) and Syria (2015).

originally posted by: xpert11
a reply to: ISeekTruth101

Russian military modernisation is relatively limited in the context of the Ukraine war. The Russian Army is road-bound and employs Cold War-era military hardware. Also, Remaining on sealed roads and neglecting rear area security limits Russia's westward advances.

Moreover, if vehicles are confined roads, they are easier to locate more prone to ambush, airstrikes, and artillery fire.

The Russian Army's manoeuvre capabilities are tied to Ukraine's road network. Lastly, the Russian Air Force and Navy will play a more prominent role in the broader war against western Europe, but that is for the future.

Fair comments, I just didn’t like people thinking Russia is a weak military force based on their performance in Ukraine which really is a special operation as opposed to Russia trying to crush an enemy but failing. Its possibly that russia have weak areas in their ability to supply and field large amounts of troops on the battlefield but just too much disinfo tk be be sure.

Its an eye opener into the logistics required for mounting large scale invasions. Food, communications, resources, fuel.