Russia Ukraine Update Thread

a reply to: vNex92

Dont you worry Comila Heiress is on the job!

They would have sent, but to Germany first.

Just seems silly.

a reply to: TrueAmerican


Thank you for the clarification, and below is a collection of my thoughts.

Implementing a land lease style program for Ukraine, NATO and America's allies is the sensible option. Yet the Biden admin's failure to employ the Defence Production Act is equally daft and embarrassing.

Indeed, campaigns that involve the defeat of Russian forces in Ukraine is the only way to stop Putin. Also, the idea that Putin's military expansion is contained in Ukraine is wishful thinking.

But imposing a no-fly zone over Ukraine is a terrible idea. The longer Ukraine holds off the Russians, the longer Putin's invasion of western Europe is delayed. Nor are wars won by air power alone. In particular, the losses incurred by Polish and German forces would weaken NATO's European defences.

I can't address the issue of nuclear weapons platforms without going too far off-topic. But those military assets must rank high on military planners' priorities target lists. Moreover, nuclear deterrence or the use of those weapons relies on the related assets surviving the conventional opening of the war.

Frankly, IMO the value of nuclear deterrence or an atomic exchange preventing or ending wars is grossly overrated.

a reply to: carewemust
No local stories?
That sounds odd.

I fear this has the potential to escalate globally.
Very, very easy ff now.
Too many KNOWN options for such imo.

All it will take is a small spark.

a reply to: shooterbrody

Thought exercise, how long would it take NK to rise up if they werent cut off from the wide open internet?

originally posted by: JinMI
a reply to: shooterbrody

Thought exercise, how long would it take NK to rise up if they werent cut off from the wide open internet?

I don't know.
I do know they haven't done that on their own in 70ish years.
I don't know that people in that kind of situation have the means to do such.
Elephants in the circus live in tiny quarters with tiny chains. They don't understand they could do more as it is all they know.

a reply to: shooterbrody

History shows that given the choice and chance, humans will die for freedom.

a reply to: shooterbrody

Imo the two sides will never 'openly' fight.
That spark was quickly extinguished last week and brushed under the rug
With 2 military aircraft of Romania downed over the black sea.
A NATO member

originally posted by: JinMI
a reply to: shooterbrody

History shows that given the choice and chance, humans will die for freedom.

The norks haven't learned that yet appearantly.
Or they think they already have such?

a reply to: shooterbrody

No clue. The level of depravity and reality that is imposed upon them is something most of us couldnt possibly fathom.

a reply to: all2human
I hope you are correct.
Wars for profit are actually a thing, and this looks just like that imo.

It is amazing to me how quickly covid completely disappeared from the "news" broadcasts.
Interesting coincidental timing eh?

originally posted by: JinMI
a reply to: shooterbrody

No clue. The level of depravity and reality that is imposed upon them is something most of us couldnt possibly fathom.

It is not a nice place.
When those people have had enough we will know.

Back on topic.

Update 9 March.

* Russian forces have likely begun renewed offensive operations into Kyiv and to continue its encirclement on the west, but have not made much progress.

* Russian troops east of the Dnipro near Kyiv are likely attempting to consolidate their lines of communication against significant Ukrainian counter-attacks and disruption to set conditions for attacking the capital from the east.

* Russia is unlikely to attempt to seize Kharkiv through a ground offensive in the coming days, but will probably continue efforts to encircle and/or bypass it.

* Russian and Russian proxy forces in Donetsk and Luhansk are driving to gain control of the full territorial extent of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts, but have not yet done so.

* Mariupol remains encircled and under bombardment.

* Russian forces continue to prepare for operations against Zaporizhya City but have not yet initiated them at scale.

* Russian forces from Kherson appear to be encircling Mykolayiv from the east but have not yet crossed the Southern Bug River.

* Russian operations against Odesa are unlikely to commence before Russia establishes a secure line of control from Crimea across the Southern Bug.

Summary. Putin's attack has bogged down. Ukraine is not collapsing, but lacks sufficient strength to force a large scale Russian retreat.

Cheers

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2


Nicely put, and the seeds of the eventual Russian conquest of Ukraine are found in that issue. The Ukrainians don't have the personnel and equipment for the concentrated counter-offensives against the Russian forces. So, unfortunately, attrition and the Russians improving their lousy military performance will decide the war.

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

Each day I’m more convinced that Biden doesn’t want this war to end. They want this to be Putin’s Vietnam and Afghanistan - drain the coffers, the moral and shorten Putin’s reign. It’s a terrible accusation.

Having said that there’s nought the US could really affect that wouldn’t tilt us into all out war, so not interfering is the correct (and least hypercritical) option. But I think potus probably thinks that watching this disaster from the sidelines is a win-win.

Btw, I’m not being party political - I think a republican potus would take the same view,

originally posted by: xpert11
Foolhardy is the understatement of the century.

It’s turning into a century in which understatement was never more easily made 😔

Food for thought about the possible outcome of Russia - Ukraine war in the near future.

1. Russia trying to brush all this under the carpet:
Source

Investigative journalist Christo Grozev of Bellingcat believes Russia will try to “freeze” the war at some point in the coming week, without actually announcing its end.

"I'm afraid there will be a period when it won’t be clear whether the war has ended or not, but there’ll l be no more bloodshed. I think that we’re approaching this, this is a matter of a week, 10 days max. Russia's position is weakening, and they understand this. It will be more beneficial for them not to say the war is over, because they will have to admit that they’ve lost it, but keep it ‘frozen’ at some stage," Grozev said.

2. Russia narrowing demands to come out of this as a winner:

Source

Zelensky can fortify Ukraine's independence but will have to pay a heavy price, the sources said. Assumptions are that he will be forced to give up the contested Donbas region, officially recognize the pro-Russian dissidents in Ukraine, pledge that Ukraine will not join NATO, shrink his army and declare neutrality.

Source

Israeli officials cited by both outlets said the sides have “softened” their stances: Russia, they said, will not demand regime change in Ukraine, and no longer wants the entire country demilitarized, but only the Donbas region in the east.

3. Russia loses/ Ukraine loses. Choose one. Both are, theoretically, possible.


P.S.: Israel is a chosen mediator in the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.

Zelensky said Tuesday he’d spoken to Bennett and thanked him for his efforts to mediate between Moscow and Kyiv. In an English-language tweet, Zelensky said that the two “discussed ways to end the war and violence.”

Just in case somebody is still a bit confused about what is going on between Russia-Ukraine:

1.On February 24, on the instructions of President Vladimir Putin, Russia launched a war with Ukraine.

2.Russian troops have been shelling and destroying key infrastructure, with their missiles aiming including at apartment blocks, hospitals and humanitarian corridors.

3.President Zelensky stayed in Kyiv, Ukraine.

4.Ukraine has not surrendered.

These are THE FACTS.

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Just to add to one of my previous posts, there will always be people trying to gain sth out of a dire situation. Always were, always will be. Some Russians knew exactly where they are going and what they are going to do to Ukrainians. I do not blame ALL Russians for the situation. Indoctrination of Russian people is vile. I blame THOSE people who KEEP shelling even after they were told by locals AND THE WHOLE WORLD they are in the Ukraine under false pretenses and their 'peace-keeping' is not welcomed.

PEACE

a reply to: wordforword

The problem for Putin is that there is no reason for anyone in Ukraine to accept those terms. Such an arrangement serves Putin nicely, and he gains time to reinforce and reequip his military. Oh, and Ukraine surrendered territory and sovereignty to Russia. After Putin's breathing time is over, Russia invades western Ukraine.

Both sides have an interest in feigning interest in a peace deal. Putin is making a vain attempt at looking like the "good guy". But, on the other hand, Zelensky appeases any members of the international community who support a rubbish settlement.

a reply to: wordforword

The Russians may be, may be mind you, coming to the realization, a rather painful one apparently, that they can not defeat Ukraine in a timely manner.

Unrest in the civil population seems to be growing, in spite of draconian attempts to stifle it, within the borders of Russia. With the ruble crashing into virtual non-existance against the dollar...last I saw it was something along the lines of 80 percent of a penny. You're going to have line up a whole bunch of 'em to buy a loaf of bread--much less anything to go with said bread.

If the Ukraine can hold them off for a month or two more, the economic catastrophe will force the Russians to the stark realization that they aren't the Big Bad Bear they once were.

originally posted by: xpert11
a reply to: wordforword

The problem for Putin is that there is no reason for anyone in Ukraine to accept those terms. Such an arrangement serves Putin nicely, and he gains time to reinforce and reequip his military. Oh, and Ukraine surrendered territory and sovereignty to Russia. After Putin's breathing time is over, Russia invades western Ukraine.

Both sides have an interest in feigning interest in a peace deal. Putin is making a vain attempt at looking like the "good guy". But, on the other hand, Zelensky appeases any members of the international community who support a rubbish settlement.

Agreed. Now lets add that the sowing time is upon us. Farmers need to start planting instead of harvesting Russian scrap.
Too many Ukrainian lives lost/destroyed already. Russia keeps throwing men into the meat grinder. They don't care about the losses that much, it seems.
Zelensky might settle with the agreement after all. He has to think about saving the remnants of whatever is left. No other countries are getting involved directly to stop Russia. War Fatigue is already here. Headlines are slowly shifting towards mundane.
To sign an armistice and continue with all the unrest at the borders? Russia is not technically loosing, Ukraine is not technically winning. Would be sad to the utmost to witness Putin not getting punished, though. But that's life, I guess.