Russia Ukraine Update Thread

originally posted by: Imhere

originally posted by: carewemust
I'm increasingly seeing the posts to this thread as members discussing strategy for combatting Putin as if he is rational leader. That he will not launch any Nukes, either as a WWIII initiation, or even a single Nuke, because he is rational and balanced. Is my interpretation of the last 2 pages of posts to this thread correct?

Let’s just say this, Biden is not more “rationale” than Putin.

In fact Biden's worse. At least Putin isn’t selling out. Biden is a ghost.

I don't know if Biden is willingly assigning Blinken and Harris to leadership roles with handling the Russia-Ukraine conflict. (Kamala going to Poland in 2 days). Or, if someone unknown is assigning them (and Psaki) as spokespeople.

It's just weird after Donald Trump, to have a President who seems so out-of-touch with fast moving events.

I keep expecting one day to wake up and see a bulletin that Joe Biden died in his sleep, or is hospitalized.

* - Fire at oil depot in Luhansk
********** WARNING ******************** WARNING ******************** WARNING **********
The twitter link below shows 2-3 videos of the burning depots. Scrolling down beyond the videos in question there is combat footage with bodies
Twitter video / SAFE
********** WARNING ******************** WARNING ******************** WARNING **********

* - Russian unilaterally declared evacuation routes for Kyiv-to Homiel in Belarus, from Mariupol- to Rostov-on-Don in Russia, from Kharkiv and Sumy to Bilhorod in Russia. Routes not agreed with Ukraine

* - At least 8 dead in massive bombardment of Kharkiv overnight. 21 big fires in central part of the city. 11 houses partially or completely destroyed

* - Russian army shelled Mykolaiv with MLRS Smerch. Shelling started at 5:15. 5 fires as result

* - The downed Russian Mi-24P (Mi-35P) RF-94966 helicopter - (Twitter video / Safe)

* - One of pilots of downed aircraft was captured in Kharkiv, search operation ongoing for the 2nd

* - Container for cluster ammunition after shelling in Mykolaiv

* - Destroyed apartment block at Natalia Uzhviy street 82 in Kharkiv (Twitter video / Safe)

* - Kharkiv(09:16). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

* - Damage after Russian army shelling on Malyn town in Zhytomyr region

* - Ukrainian artillery targeted gathering of Russian army at Choronobaivka airfield near Kherson

* - 209 people, including 133 civilians, including five children, died in the Kharkiv region as a result of hostilities - Police

* - Russian army destroyed Pokrovska church in Vyazivka village of Zhytomyr region, built in 1862

* - Dozens of captured Russian soldiers in Sumy (The video is NOT safe - age restricted on Twitter)

* - Russian troops entered Mykolaiv airport - head of regional administration

* - Rally against Russian occupation in Novotroitske, Kherson region

* - Historical "Slovo" building was damaged in overnight attacks by Russian army on Kharkiv

* - World Food Program: We seek to provide food to 3 to 5 million Ukrainians

* - "Putin lies and Ukrainians, our citizens, die." Anton Korynevych is representing Ukraine in the case against Russia at the UN's International Court of Justice (ICJ) asking for orders to Moscow to halt the invasion

As a reminder -

Just so people know and understand. Information from war zones can become confusing as there will no doubt be info released from the players (on both sides) involved that might not necessarily be true.

As such take everything as a possibility and NOT as absolute truth.

The very first casualty in a war is the truth and all warfare is based on deception

Flightradar24

* - KK31 - Airbus KC2 Voyager (A330-243MRTT) / RAF - Currently over Romania
* - RCH560 - Boeing C-17A Globemaster III / USAF - Currently over Poland
* - LAGR220 - Boeing KC-135R Stratotanker / USAF - Currently over Romania
* - RSD86 - Tupolev Tu-204-300 / Rossiya - Special Flight Squadron - Currently over Belarus from Moscow
* - 10631 - Mil Mi-8S / Polish AF - Currently over Warsaw
* - JAKE11 - Boeing RC-135W Rivet Joint / USAF - currently over Romania patrolling border of Ukraine/Moldova/Hungary

originally posted by: carewemust

originally posted by: Imhere

originally posted by: carewemust
I'm increasingly seeing the posts to this thread as members discussing strategy for combatting Putin as if he is rational leader. That he will not launch any Nukes, either as a WWIII initiation, or even a single Nuke, because he is rational and balanced. Is my interpretation of the last 2 pages of posts to this thread correct?

Let’s just say this, Biden is not more “rationale” than Putin.

In fact Biden's worse. At least Putin isn’t selling out. Biden is a ghost.

I don't know if Biden is willingly assigning Blinken and Harris to leadership roles with handling the Russia-Ukraine conflict. (Kamala going to Poland in 2 days). Or, if someone unknown is assigning them (and Psaki) as spokespeople.

It's just weird after Donald Trump, to have a President who seems so out-of-touch with fast moving events.

I keep expecting one day to wake up and see a bulletin that Joe Biden died in his sleep, or is hospitalized.

We all knew ahead of time Kamala Harris, for example, doesn’t know “anything” really about international affairs.

She’s probably first one thinking “hey NATO yeah let’s drop some military gear into Bosnia”

she probably knows that’ll just instigate a region But that’s the democrats play book 101.

Just some brushed up napkin dribble to digest and move on forward.

(and no, don’t even try the woman or race card here)

(and no it’s not a good strategic move)

tweet deleted.....

Stay Safe

Riouz

originally posted by: PatriotGames4u
a reply to: Soloprotocol


No.

Not 'win'.

That would be dumb.

NOBODY 'wins'.

But one side WILL survive, and that ONE side is already known.

The only thing surviving a Nuclear war will be cockroaches.

a reply to: Xcathdra


The first question that media pundits are glossing over is why Putin waited eight years to annex the remainder of Ukraine. The enormous success of Putin's useful idiots among the MSNBC crowd who spun the Russia Gate hoax. Sowing deep divisions in the U.S. served two goals. The first is to prevent the formation of policy and support for tackling Putin's dreams of empire. Second, a divided house of cards always falls, bringing the prospect of a second American Civil War.

Putin's miscalculation spans never understanding how Ukraine would take the interim to prepare for the coming war. Yet the Russian military remained stuck in the Soviet era and might have gone backwards.

I suspect that Putin might have planned on rubber stamping Russia's occupation of eastern Ukraine with a Munich style agreement. But when Putin's ploy failed, his only option was to invade Ukraine.

Lastly, the sanctions play into Putin's "the west" is our enemy mindset and propaganda machine.

This isn’t Putin’s empire.

Let’s give him that, he wants it.

This is clear as day about others playing into his hand for years.

That’s why I’m not instantly and robotically “putting a Ukraine flag” on my facebook profile picture

If anything, they’re mocking Ukrainians…

It’s not just “Putin” here

a reply to: xpert11

I agree and I think Putin's miscalculation is probably going to be his downfall (imo)

More updates please,

about President of Ukraine Volodymyr Oleksandrovych Zelensky being Rambo/John McClane of the streets of Kiev please.

originally posted by: Oldcarpy2
a reply to: McGinty

Because he is desparately crying for help?

Absolutely! I'm not making any judgements. Just saying that surely he understands that a no fly zone could easily lead to nuclear war, in which case multitudes more of his people would die than will in the current situation. I humbly appreciate that the man is most understandably desperate. But does that justify him more or less calling for ww3?

originally posted by: Valhall
a reply to: McGinty

Okay...well, then nuke them all.

Problem solved. Just wipe Ukraine off the map because you can't understand why a President of a sovereign nation under siege wants a safe corridor for his people to exit. He's asking for fighter jets for his own air force so maybe he can provide that in some limited degree. This dude doesn't want to cause WW3. He wants some small remnant of his culture and people to survive.

Meanwhile, Mr. Roboto at the long table is acting like going out in a blaze of glory suits him fine!

No, you;'ve got the wrong end of the stick. I didn't ask why he wants jets for his people to fly, i asked why he wants a no fly zone. Two entirely different problems.

The first leads to how Putin will define and react to the west arming ukraine with jets.

The second, which i clearly referred to leads to how Putin will react to nato jets shooting down Russian jets. It's been made clear be all but a couple military hierarchy that this is virtually a sure fire course to ww3.

So you've got it back to front: if Zelenskyy gets his no fly zone that is him 'nuking them all... Just wipe Ukraine off the map', as you put it. I'm suggesting that he doesn't give putin an excuse to 'nuke them all', which would probably be swiftly followed by the rest of the world.

I hate to see what's happening as much as you, but we need to keep our brains engaged. Deny ignorance is our motto here, but in times like this that can also mean deny rage.

a reply to: Xcathdra


My grave fears are the potential events between Russia occupying Ukraine and Putin's demise. Aside from the scope of death and destruction from global conflict, there are other issues to confront. Unlike WW2, ending with Germany and Japan's unconditional surrender, no such an option exists concerning Russia and China. Broadly, the best hope is for the restoration of pre-war borders.

But wars have unintended consequences: For instance, look at how the legacy of WW1 of remains in the Middle East and the Balkans.

Alternatively, if Putin is overthrown, there is the risk of a second Russian Civil War and China invading Siberia under the guise of liberation.

originally posted by: McGinty
Just saying that surely he understands that a no fly zone could easily lead to nuclear war,

That would be a nuclear war started by Putin's Russia.

A no fly zone would remove Russia's ability to conduct the continued invasion of Ukraine. Given what we now see about the professionalism and equipment of Russia's military, I cannot see Russia being able to counter NATO in the air.

Given that Putin is a nasty pice of work, it's plausible that he would start a nuclear war because defeat in Ukraine would lead to his end. He's already stearing at defeat in one form, or another.

* - Projectile hit a building of Aquarena pool in Kharkiv last night

* - School 18 destroyed in Russian army shelling on Chernihiv, civil defense units looking for survivors under the rubble

* - Kharkiv(11:52). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

* - Death toll of Russian attack on Vinnitsa airport with cruise missiles raised to 9 dead, 5 of them - civilians

* - Odesa(11:53). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

* - Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi(11:56). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

* - Anti-russian protest in Kherson (Twitter video / Safe)

* - Iryna Vereshchuk, a Ukrainian deputy prime minister, said Russia's proposal to evacuate Ukrainian citizens to Russian territory was "ridiculous" and "cynical

* - Over 2000 civilians were evacuated from Irpin' this morning

originally posted by: xpert11
a reply to: Xcathdra


My grave fears are the potential events between Russia occupying Ukraine and Putin's demise. Aside from the scope of death and destruction from global conflict, there are other issues to confront. Unlike WW2, ending with Germany and Japan's unconditional surrender, no such an option exists concerning Russia and China. Broadly, the best hope is for the restoration of pre-war borders.

But wars have unintended consequences: For instance, look at how the legacy of WW1 of remains in the Middle East and the Balkans.

Alternatively, if Putin is overthrown, there is the risk of a second Russian Civil War and China invading Siberia under the guise of liberation.

Overthrow Putin all you want. Doesn’t change anything.

a reply to: xpert11

either way we are all screwed. At the same time we can't just shy away from everything and hope for the best.

King George VI: I am impressed by the detail, the comprehensiveness of your planning. The expected losses, the sheer carnage...

Gen. Dwight D. Eisenhower: I also ache at that thought, your majesty. I remember my first trip to Europe as a young man, and I felt blessed to be here, to see it, to touch the origins of my own country that I love so dearly. I hoped one day all young Americans will have the same opportunity. Now hundreds of thousands will, along with Britons, and Canadians and European Allies fighting to return home. This kind of visit isn't what I had in mind. But if they do not offer the sacrifice in blood now, we will all pay dearly with added gallons later. So if some must die, it is in a worthy cause.

It reminds me of the quotes above. We either deal with the mess now while hoping calmer heads prevail or we deal with it later, at a much higher cost.

To be honest I would prefer now while the last generations from ww2 are still alive and can hopefully talk some sense into people. Once that generation is gone, we are doomed to repeat history. However appeasement, shown time and again, does not work.

originally posted by: paraphi
Given that Putin is a nasty pice of work, it's plausible that he would start a nuclear war because defeat in Ukraine would lead to his end.

This should be paramount (i imagine it is) in figuring out how to diffuse this situation with the least bad result for mankind.

Without doubt if a war started due to putin's lack of air superiority, then it'd be putin that started it and his fault. But in a nuclear war it really doesn't matter who's fault it is - everyone loses. That's why this conflict can't really on comparison with previous wars, regarding how one treats bullies. Sure it would've been naive to try and defeat Hitler diplomatically - we had to fight. But Hitler didn't nave the capability to instantly end the world at his finger tips. And if he had does anyone really think he wouldn't have pressed that button in the berlin bunker beside eva braun?

a reply to: Imhere

based on?

originally posted by: xpert11
Alternatively, if Putin is overthrown, there is the risk of a second Russian Civil War and China invading Siberia under the guise of liberation.

Problem is that highly emotivewar images sell. Geographical and historical context not so much.

That leads to a mob consensus driven by rage that, which is only capable of seeing this playing out in two dimensions and with tunnel vision.

This is 4D chess and then some; space x time x psychological make-up. We must tread carefully in such a minefield, especially when the mines are measured in the megatonnage.