Russia Ukraine Update Thread

originally posted by: Riouz5

a reply to: Xcathdra

Not what i Asked for ...

And You know that..

So please supply me just ONE diret Quote from Putin

That State s he Wants to Occupy the Whole of the Ukraine

Stay Safe

Riouz

The only hint I can give you is to actually read the article, or maybe the section I listed, which has Putins direct quotes.

It came the day after Putin announced Russia's advance into Ukraine, and attacked its status as a separate nation.

Putin said in a Monday speech: "Ukraine has never had its own authentic statehood. There has never been a sustainable statehood in Ukraine."

He argued that Ukraine was a creation of the Soviet Union under Vladimir Lenin, its first leader, despite extensive evidence of a distinctive Ukrainian culture before that.

Putin also made a claim that Ukraine was a part of Russia's historic territory.

What does Putins statements mean to you?

originally posted by: Xcathdra
a reply to: PatriotGames4u

It will last a lot longer than weeks... or months. Putin wont settle for anything less than complete victory (a situation Putin put himself in by believing his own propaganda and ignoring his advisors). Ukraine wont settle for anything but complete victory, including the 2 provinces and Crimea.


As for the other comment people are welcome, especially if it helps and they find the info helpful. Judging by some of the comments ive gotten not everyone likes it (and those that bitch still have not posted any of their sources).

Ignore those that don't like it, they're just butthurt over russia getting the peace kicked out of them and the whole national suicide thing.

They REALLY think we're either lying or pushing propaganda lies, just can't make themselves believe it.

IMO, There are people of UN-SOUND MINDS attempting to push NATO/US into a confrontation with Russia.

Poland says it's "fake news" that the country will send fighter jets to Ukraine for fighting Russians.

Source: twitter.com...

Who is it that got this rumor started? U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken?

originally posted by: xpert11
Russia is losing in the information/propaganda domain. Such claims are ludicrous to the point of comedic effect.

The other alternative is that the units are acting as a replacement depot for individual causalities among Russian front-line units in Ukraine. But if there is a brigade structure in place, your analysis is closer to the mark.

Singling out Poland - which also used to be part of the Russian empire.
Threatens all 3 Baltic states because a russian diplomat was attacked in lithuania -- again russia claims all 3 baltic states and insists they arent real countries.

They seem to be doing their damnedest to desperately cry wolf to the rest of the world and pretend they are the victims.

originally posted by: carewemust
IMO, There are people of UN-SOUND MINDS attempting to push NATO/US into a confrontation with Russia.

Poland says it's "fake news" that the country will send fighter jets to Ukraine for fighting Russians.

Source: twitter.com...

Who is it that got this rumor started? U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken?

Actually is was from the President of Ukraine. When they got the shipment of 70 aircraft, Zelenskyy made some comments about an agreement reached between Ukraine, Poland (and iirc) Romania that if Ukrainian bases are destroyed beyond use they were allowed to use bases in Poland and Romania. After he made that comment both Poland and Romania denied the agreement but also canceled the plans for Ukraine to get fighter jets. Thats why the US SecState has been in Eastern Europe visiting the Baltic countries and Poland and telling Poland the US could backfill fighter replacements from the US/NATO to replace any planes Poland sends to Ukraine.

a reply to: Xcathdra

I have no doubt that Putin's goal is to expand the war into western Europe. The only question is surrounding the strategic risks to Asia, Australia and New Zealand. Anybody who understands Putin's statements concerning Ukraine and restoring the Russian Empire can see the writing on the wall.

Lest we not forget:

September 14th, 2014 - Moscow troops could be in five NATO capitals in two days, boasts Putin: Leader boasted to Ukrainian president about Russian power

Shockwaves reverberated through Eastern Europe tonight after Vladimir Putin boasted he could invade five NATO capitals inside two days.

This came amid new reports that almost 4,000 Russia troops are massing in Crimea close to Ukraine's mainland.

'If I wanted, Russian troops could not only be in Kiev in two days, but in Riga, Vilnius, Tallinn, Warsaw or Bucharest, too,' Putin was quoted as threatening, according to Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko.

All are former USSR or Soviet-bloc cities and apart from Ukraine their countries are now NATO and EU members.

click link for article

originally posted by: Xcathdra

originally posted by: carewemust
IMO, There are people of UN-SOUND MINDS attempting to push NATO/US into a confrontation with Russia.

Poland says it's "fake news" that the country will send fighter jets to Ukraine for fighting Russians.

Source: twitter.com...

Who is it that got this rumor started? U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken?

Actually is was from the President of Ukraine. When they got the shipment of 70 aircraft, Zelenskyy made some comments about an agreement reached between Ukraine, Poland (and iirc) Romania that if Ukrainian bases are destroyed beyond use they were allowed to use bases in Poland and Romania. After he made that comment both Poland and Romania denied the agreement but also canceled the plans for Ukraine to get fighter jets. Thats why the US SecState has been in Eastern Europe visiting the Baltic countries and Poland and telling Poland the US could backfill fighter replacements from the US/NATO to replace any planes Poland sends to Ukraine.

Thanks a million for filling in the blanks with what happened before this weekend. Secretary of State Blinken giving the guarantee to Poland that the U.S. will replace any planes Poland loses, is essentially the same as the U.S. sending fighter jets directly to Ukraine from a U.S. base.

No wonder Fox News has been so gleeful about the Blinken announcement. They were first to push for US/NATO direct intervention...when CNN, MSNBC, CBS, etc., were mostly against it.

But the other half of the Blinken announcement regarding boycotting Russian Oil, is sending oil futures skyrocketing, and Stock futures nosediving.

Oil Climbs/Stocks Sink: www.theguardian.com...

a reply to: carewemust

Only deluded or wishful thinkers would conclude Poland's considerations relating to dispatching Mig-29 to Ukraine are fake news. Only complete fools would oppose the idea based on provoking Putin. But there are practical issues at work, including how the aircraft arrive in Ukraine and the time frame for the replacement F-16s to enter service with the Polish Air Force. Poland won't transfer elements of their Air force to Ukraine if they weaken their defences.

a reply to: Xcathdra


Ah, Baghdad Bob.

a reply to: xpert11


We have PLENTY of good spares right now, and have already been training Polish pilots for quite a while.

Could transfer a large number almost immediately if needed.

No idea if this is the plan though.

Sad Ukraine is in a tough spot between the west (NATO) and the east (Russia)


Without the West (NATO) Ukraine has no chance really.

I personally have nothing against Ukraine. And met a few but have some since childhood who I keep wholeheartedly for life.

It’s the BS lobbyist and politicians that got us here. You can say Putin, but a lot of it was allowed and directed in the west for us to get here.

But hey let the innocent looking around through rumble for an answer.

Fingers were pointed years ago (Crimea) Obama/Biden. And obviously Putin gets center stage.

I feel bad for those that are completely oblivious to it. The ones that are not, eat crow.

a reply to: PatriotGames4u

I am uncertain of the cause behind the delays in the transfer of aircraft. It is possible that the Polish Government are nervous and out of touch with reality, so they oppose the deal. Also, the Biden admin and Congress might not cut through red tape to ensure the F-16s arrive in Poland before the fall of Ukraine.

But people's one-dimensional thinking ensures that an underlying matter goes unnoticed. The international community is relying on the sanctions regime to defeat Putin. So, in effect, there are no backstop options to prevent the coming broader European war. Notice how the Biden admin failed to employ the Defence Production Act. So, beyond token support, the logistical support the Ukrainian military requires doesn't exist.

a reply to: xpert11


I mostly agree.

Don't know if they are skipping typical red tape or not, I don't trust biden or any other democrat on this.

At a functional level, they could have been already delivered in the 14 hours since that announcement.

We have planes ready to go, pilots have the training, and Poland already has all the model specific support gear.




Also - absolutely no need for Defense Production Act at this point.

We have everything we need already on hand, and the quantities we're discussing won't even trigger a replenishment issue down the line.

The U.S. Military is well prepared and supplied.

a reply to: xpert11

The comment about Putin and sanctions is interesting. Putin, according to his "inner circle" aides etc said all Putin was expecting was sanctions that deal only with recognizing the 2 provinces. That's all the lower functionaries expected and factored that into their calculations.

When putin took Crimea back in 2014 ejection from swift was talked about but putin threatened war / nuclear war if it was used. At that time the west backed down and went with small sanctions. This time around putin was set in the idea that those same type of sanctions would be it. When the rest of the west / world went farther and harsher this time it pissed putin off. They were unprepared for these sanctions, especially ejection from SWIFT and the blocking of 600 billion set aside to support the ruble (for the lower sanctions). Its not often a country is ejected from SWIFT and even rarer when a country's backup funds are seized / blocked (like N. Korea / Iraq etc).

Now Putin is crying because to him sanctions means war.

Putin has threatened the west / world for so long I would wager they are sick of his threats. Something putin has a difficult time processing and understanding.

As far as logistical support goes the UK already stepped up and wants to take the lead for acting as a point of contact for things Ukraine is asking for and coordinating the countries wanting to send items.


So far the granting of fighter jets seems to be only at the older soviet aircraft (which limits the plane giving to just Eastern Europe) level. I have not seen any mention of Western aircraft being sent to Ukraine (with the exceptions of drones supplied by Turkey and Georgia).

originally posted by: Xcathdra
a reply to: xpert11

The comment about Putin and sanctions is interesting. Putin, according to his "inner circle" aides etc said all Putin was expecting was sanctions that deal only with recognizing the 2 provinces. That's all the lower functionaries expected and factored that into their calculations.

When putin took Crimea back in 2014 ejection from swift was talked about but putin threatened war / nuclear war if it was used. At that time the west backed down and went with small sanctions. This time around putin was set in the idea that those same type of sanctions would be it. When the rest of the west / world went farther and harsher this time it pissed putin off. They were unprepared for these sanctions, especially ejection from SWIFT and the blocking of 600 billion set aside to support the ruble (for the lower sanctions). Its not often a country is ejected from SWIFT and even rarer when a country's backup funds are seized / blocked (like N. Korea / Iraq etc).

Now Putin is crying because to him sanctions means war.

Putin has threatened the west / world for so long I would wager they are sick of his threats. Something putin has a difficult time processing and understanding.

As far as logistical support goes the UK already stepped up and wants to take the lead for acting as a point of contact for things Ukraine is asking for and coordinating the countries wanting to send items.


So far the granting of fighter jets seems to be only at the older soviet aircraft (which limits the plane giving to just Eastern Europe) level. I have not seen any mention of Western aircraft being sent to Ukraine (with the exceptions of drones supplied by Turkey and Georgia).

Putin knew about the sanctions ahead of time.

We can sit here and say “maybe Putin is that unhinged”

The answer is no.

Hate Putin all you want, but he knew about the sanctions ahead of time. (this isn’t some Russians in an isolated Igloo somewhere)

To get full clarity, sometimes you need to step back and see the full spectrum and proceed.

Without looking like CNN or Rachel Meadow ffs.

I'm increasingly seeing the posts to this thread as members discussing strategy for combatting Putin as if he is rational leader. That he will not launch any Nukes, either as a WWIII initiation, or even a single Nuke, because he is rational and balanced. Is my interpretation of the last 2 pages of posts to this thread correct?

a reply to: Xcathdra

Putin has stated that the supply of Aircraft to ukraine would bring them into this...

Special Military Operation....

To Add Ukrainian Pilots dont train with Western Aircraft hence old migs

Stay Safe

Riouz

originally posted by: carewemust
I'm increasingly seeing the posts to this thread as members discussing strategy for combatting Putin as if he is rational leader. That he will not launch any Nukes, either as a WWIII initiation, or even a single Nuke, because he is rational and balanced. Is my interpretation of the last 2 pages of posts to this thread correct?

Let’s just say this, Biden is not more “rationale” than Putin.

In fact Biden's worse. At least Putin isn’t selling out. Biden is a ghost.

a reply to: PatriotGames4u

Don't underestimate the nature of attritional nature of conventional warfare. The coalition's sweeping victory in the Gulf War 1991 is an aberration. Likewise, in Ukraine, the historical trends of heavy logistical footprints and higher numbers of causalities.

Maybe, Russia made the same error that Germany made after September 1939. Germany's industrial output of war materiel and Luftwaffe pilot training programs remained at peacetime levels. So, the flow effect is the inability to replace combat losses. But that issue was a broader part of Germany's strategic failures, including not preparing for the possibility of long wars.