Russia Ukraine Update Thread

originally posted by: F2d5thCavv2
a reply to: PatriotGames4u

I think the whole of their 'strategy' was a decapitation attack on Kiev. After that, it was supposed to mopping up and occupation.

But the airborne strike to rapidly seize Kiev failed. And it is looking now like there was no "Plan B".

Cheers

I think this is 100% correct and 50% complete.

It looks like russia attempted rapid simultaneus decapitation in 3 significant cities and 3 insignificant towns all at once, and all 6 failed spectacularly, getting several of russia's best units completely destroyed in the process and leaving the remaining force basically leaderless on the ground.

It doesn't look like anyone in Russia ever even considered the idea of having a backup plan.

Combined with some unexpected high altitude air defense upgrades that were a surprise to everyone except Ukraine and the small heroic country that secretly helped Ukraine pull that off, and the massive international response (especially the Javs and Stingers), this resulted in a VERY bad first week for Russia.

Putin then pride panicked and sent 100k+ soldiers racing for Kiev, until suddenly realizing he just got his entire army hopelessly trapped.

With his huge helicopter force grounded by lots of lurking Stingers that appear out of nowhere every time rotors start rotoring.

I think weeks 2 and 3 will be more of the same, and then suddenly get MUCH worse for Russia at some point during that period.


That's how I see it right now anyway.

a reply to: PatriotGames4u

Curious as to why you think the Russians are trapped.

Understand they might have to fight ambushes along the road back to Russia. I think their soldiers might be a bit more motivated to do that vice a city-fight for Kiev.

But I have no sources of information. I'm just using my knowledge of conventional warfare to try to make sense of what is happening.



Cheers

* - Missile attacked targeted police office in Kharkiv

* - Consequences of the morning bombardment of Irpin, Kyiv region

* - Another devastating Russian strike on Kharkiv. This one hit the Karazin National University's School of Sociology which sits across the street from the regional Interior Ministry office. Video via Anton Gerashenko, aide to Interior Minister

* - Photo: destroyed Russian military equipment in Bucha

* - Explosion in Kherson, Reportedly around the airport area

* - President Zelensky predicts troubles for NATO member states if Russia seizes control of Ukraine

* - International banking lobby has warned that it is 'extremely likely' Russia will default if the war in Ukraine escalates

* - Google Restaurant Reviews Hijacked to Share News From Ukraine With Russian Citizens

* - Low-profile Russian air force puzzles Western experts

* - Around 70 Japanese have volunteered to fight for Ukraine - report

* - Biden says the US will seize yachts and luxury apartments from Russian oligarchs with wealth parked in the country: 'We are coming for your ill-begotten gains'

* - Boeing and Ford latest corporate giants to suspend operations in Russia

* - Ukraine foils assassination attempt on Zelensky by Chechen special unit

As a reminder -

Just so people know and understand. Information from war zones can become confusing as there will no doubt be info released from the players (on both sides) involved that might not necessarily be true.

As such take everything as a possibility and NOT as absolute truth.

The very first casualty in a war is the truth and all warfare is based on deception

originally posted by: Navieko

originally posted by: TrueAmerican
Right. There's no Russian convoy 40 miles long, and there is no war. Hell, even the earth doesn't exist and this is all a bad dream in some alternative universe. They got Twitter there too?

Way to go full-retard.

Well I kinda take a bit of offense at your comment, like we are some kind of misinformed sheep not aware of the lies and propaganda of the MSM, and "easily manipulated". That's friggin ridiculous actually. So yeah, you got full retard. Cause you went full retard first. This is ATS dude. Never assume any of us would solely source our info from the MSM to speculate here. Especially not some of us who've been around this site for over 10 years. In fact, you best realize that many of us will hardly use MSM at all and opt for more challenging social networks on the ground and discern truth there instead. MSM presents it, and we tear it to pieces is usually how this works here.

a reply to: Xcathdra

Re: Russian air force. If their logistics are like that of the Russian army, they may be having problems keeping aircraft aloft.

Related thought. Russia, like all countries, has only limited stocks of really accurate air-to-ground weapons like smart bombs. Either they're already running out of those munitions, or they're holding them back in case things with NATO go hot war.



Cheers

originally posted by: TrueAmerican
This is ATS dude. Never assume any of us would solely source our info from the MSM to speculate here. Especially not some of us who've been around this site for over 10 years. In fact, you best realize that many of us will hardly use MSM at all and opt for more challenging social networks on the ground and discern truth there instead. MSM presents it, and we tear it to pieces is usually how this works here.

That's exactly why I'm disappointed... by and large with this Russia/Ukraine incident, I'm not seeing that at all. I'm seeing the vast majority gobbling up the MSM narrative, you included. Deny it all you want, but it's plain for everyone to see. I've been a member here long enough to expect better.

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

Well considering Plan A would most likely be to defend the motherland at all costs, you're probably right. Send in the conscripts, see if they could get the job done, while retaining the Big Bear back for homeland defense should NATO intervene. Could be just as simple as that. Surely wouldn't want to trust homeland defense to conscripts.

* - Unexpected ways Russia is getting the cold shoulder
-No More New Movies - The biggest movie studios in Hollywood have halted the theatrical release of new films to Russia.
-Vodka Gets a Cold Shoulder
-Russian Sister Cities Get the Boot
-Putin is a Black Belt No More
-No More Motorcycles For Putin, Either
-Russian Hockey Team Banned
-Russian Olympians (Finally) Banned
-No More World Cup
-Russian Singers Kicked Out of Eurovision
-Russian Airlines Banned From Other Nations' Airspace

* - Nordstream 2 pipeline bankrupt after Russian sanctions

* - Ukrainian mapping tool taken offline by DDoS attack (back up)

* - Ukrainian media outlet leaked a list containing the personal details of more than 120,000 Russian soldiers amid the ongoing conflict between the two nations.

* - Putin’s war on Ukraine is drawing battle lines within Russia

The invasion that united NATO and Europe on sanctions as never before has also divided Russians. On one side: an outward-looking urban middle class who vacation in Europe and while away spend time scrolling through Western apps on their iPhones and send their children to universities abroad. On the other: Putin loyalists, many less-educated Russians or older people raised on Soviet propaganda.

* - The ex-news director of Russia's largest search engine urged his former colleagues to quit, accusing the company of censoring Russia's invasion into Ukraine

* - China Holds Talks With Ukraine, Further Edging Away From Russia

As a reminder -

Just so people know and understand. Information from war zones can become confusing as there will no doubt be info released from the players (on both sides) involved that might not necessarily be true.

As such take everything as a possibility and NOT as absolute truth.

The very first casualty in a war is the truth and all warfare is based on deception

a reply to: carewemust
I am not believing him.. He stated in his State of the Union speech.

originally posted by: F2d5thCavv2
a reply to: PatriotGames4u

Curious as to why you think the Russians are trapped.

Understand they might have to fight ambushes along the road back to Russia. I think their soldiers might be a bit more motivated to do that vice a city-fight for Kiev.

But I have no sources of information. I'm just using my knowledge of conventional warfare to try to make sense of what is happening.



Cheers

High ground on two sides of the convoy infested with well hidden & dug in snipers, Javelins & Stingers.

2 Ukrainian divisions and 100k dug in amateurs in Kiev directly ahead.

No way out except back to Belarus on the same road IF they can get past the Javs on their 6.

Can't fly under 15k due to Stingers in the hillsides.

Can't fly over 15k due to unexpectedly upgraded ancient russian air defense system.

Enemy is staying within Javelin range of the russians, so area defense missle attack is impossible.

Cut off from all supplies.

Trapped.



Maybe.

Apparently the "Nord Stream 2 AG" firm in Switzerland, the EU side of the NS2 project, has gone defunct and "released" its employees.

Seems like a very new development.

Cheers

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

I dont think they thought they would need them. A guess on my part but it makes sense. Russia now has, of all units tasked to Ukraine, 85% of forces in Ukraine.

Also some of the airports Russia has taken are now being used to fly supplies in, like fuel and food. Russia is also setting up Forward Operating Bases (FOB's).

Then you have Poland and Hungary who canceled the planes they were suppose to give to Ukraine. This was done because Zelinsky (sp) apparently bragged about a secret agreement between Ukraine and Poland and Hungary where if Ukraine loses its airbase ability Ukrainian air force units were going to use4 bases in those 2 countries. Once he let that out the deals were canceled and for perfectly valid reasons.

Its one thing to give weapons to a nation at war. Its something else entirely when a nation hosts units for that war.

Modern Day Civilization Status Report

China has enabled almost 6 million needless global deaths since Jan 2020. But they (President Xi) get a pass because they deny being the creator of Covid-19.

Joe Biden spent the first 15 minutes of his State of the Union address discussing the Russia/Ukraine issue, which has been far less catastrophic for the world than what China has already done.

Go figure...

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

Operator of Nord Stream 2 files for bankruptcy and fires all employees

The Swiss-based company behind the Nord Stream 2 pipeline has filed for bankruptcy and fired all 106 of its employees, a local official confirmed to Swiss radio broadcaster SRF.

Why it matters: Long viewed as a Kremlin influence project that would increase Europe's energy dependence on Russia, Nord Stream 2 was one of the first targets of the flurry of Western sanctions triggered by Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine.

Get market news worthy of your time with Axios Markets. Subscribe for free.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said the certification of the $11 billion natural gas pipeline would be suspended last Tuesday, a day after Putin ordered Russian troops into eastern Ukraine for a "peacekeeping" mission. The pipeline is fully constructed, but gas had not yet started flowing.

The U.S. followed up by rescinding sanctions waivers on Nord Stream 2 AG and its corporate officers, dealing what was likely the death blow to a project that had caused major headaches for President Biden and the trans-Atlantic alliance.

What they're saying: "Following the recent geopolitical developments leading to the imposition of U.S. sanctions on Nord Stream 2 AG, the company had to terminate contracts with employees. We very much regret this development," Nord Stream 2 AG — a wholly owned subsidiary of Russia's Gazprom — told Reuters in a statement.

click link for full article

a reply to: ManBehindTheMask


Some NATO leaders suspect the same thing.

We won't be attacking.

a reply to: PatriotGames4u

Interesting. So this is one of the columns that came from Belarus.

So, if things bog down, one carrot to use in cease fire negotiations will be to NOT inflict heavy casualties on the Russian column.

Make it clear to Russian people and Russian soldiers that the objective is for them to return home and then sort out issues diplomatically.

My 2¢ in any case.

Cheers

Has anyone figured out what Vladimir Putin's goal is yet?