Russia Ukraine Update Thread

originally posted by: Xcathdra
a reply to: wordforword

and their is the possibility that what we are seeing is a trap set by Russia. They send all the green military and outdated equipment all to lull Ukraine into a false sense of security.

I wonder if Russia's best is held back in case of conflict with NATO. Putin may not want them bogged down in Ukraine if that happens.

Cheers

originally posted by: PatriotGames4u
So why haven't they made any attempt to do so?

Could either be a trap or a siege of Kyiv. Not sure what strategy we're seeing here, but many are perplexed at the strategy.

a reply to: TrueAmerican


Mafia family infighting is how I saw it a week ago.

Not so sure anymore.

Maybe.



So why did putin line up 100k russians in a barely defensible killing zone for 72 hours?

I think he just stumbled into getting his army trapped there and tried to basically surrender if he could keep Crimea and the zones yesterday.

Zelinsky told him to get all russians out of all Ukraine and went back to Kiev.

Ballsiest (or dumbest) thing I've ever seen.

By that time he already had those 100k+ russians in his trap.


This is how I see it so far.

Some big missing pieces of course.

But if I'm right about this, big if, we are about to witness the biggest David story unfold since Goliath himself.

originally posted by: majesticgent

originally posted by: PatriotGames4u
So why haven't they made any attempt to do so?

Could either be a trap or a siege of Kyiv. Not sure what strategy we're seeing here, but many are perplexed at the strategy.

They've made no real effort to cut off Kiev for over 3 days now. Or even move at all.

I DO think Putin has tried to bait Zelinsky into sending his forces out to destroy the convoy, but Zelinsky was too wise to fall for it.

I think we are seeing what happens when the strategy was so poorly conceived it got an entire army hopelessly trapped.

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

I suspect that's at least partially true.

Many reports indicate kids on the front lines with pretty pathetic collections of gear.

On the other hand, there are both reports and some evidence that a couple of russia's BEST known elite units have been completely destroyed, possibly with zero survivors.

Seems like it must be some of both.

You're all speculating based on the assumption that the intel you've been provided is factual. I honestly am saddened by how trusting so many of you seem to be of the media all of a sudden. After everything, still so easily manipulated.

a reply to: Navieko

No, its probably not all "Factual" - fog of war, propangandist, misinformed, well intentioned etc. But with overwhelming coverage from every media outlet/defence ministry that its "not going to plan" there is probably a grain of truth. Going to plan would be a deposed regime and occupied Kyiv by now

Well as many know, he is a cold and cunning calculator. He might just be taking his time picking targets in Kyiv carefully as battlefield assessments come in and the enemy re-positions. And the fact that the Ukranian army positions themselves in and around civilian targets, to the point where residents there are fighting them about it- ain't helping none. People there understand they are in mortal danger if they are anywhere near military if and when this goes down. Best to leave, IMO, even if you only have a shelter in the subway to go to.

a reply to: Navieko

Not really since the bulk of posters on this site are just speculating, its not like many if any will suddenly board a plane to go fight for Ukraine. (Off of ATS I am saying)

What we are doing is a fine intellectual exercise to try and find that thread that will lead us to the truth, by stating flatly that all intel released is false intel is also missing the chance to follow a thread to a good positive conclusion.

Me personally I think china told Putin he had is back, putin moved expecting back up china laughed and said I have my fingers crossed.

Now Putin has to figure out how to get out of this mess and not lose his head, hence the delay of any actual strategic action.

Couple that with stronger than expected resistance, and logistical problems and he is screwed, all out war or finally surrender power are looking to be his remaining options.

originally posted by: Irishhaf
a reply to: Navieko

Not really since the bulk of posters on this site are just speculating, its not like many if any will suddenly board a plane to go fight for Ukraine. (Off of ATS I am saying)

What we are doing is a fine intellectual exercise to try and find that thread that will lead us to the truth, by stating flatly that all intel released is false intel is also missing the chance to follow a thread to a good positive conclusion.

Me personally I think china told Putin he had is back, putin moved expecting back up china laughed and said I have my fingers crossed.

Now Putin has to figure out how to get out of this mess and not lose his head, hence the delay of any actual strategic action.

Couple that with stronger than expected resistance, and logistical problems and he is screwed, all out war or finally surrender power are looking to be his remaining options.

That seems about right

originally posted by: Navieko
You're all speculating based on the assumption that the intel you've been provided is factual. I honestly am saddened by how trusting so many of you seem to be of the media all of a sudden. After everything, still so easily manipulated.

Yes.

Plus maybe a few little things that most can't see, and collective instinct developed over decades of unique experiences.

Bouncing things off each other helps fill in a few holes here and there.

Best we got for now.


Are you aware of another group anywhere that's been as accurate as 'us' over time?

I'd like to check it out if it exists.

originally posted by: Navieko
You're all speculating based on the assumption that the intel you've been provided is factual. I honestly am saddened by how trusting so many of you seem to be of the media all of a sudden. After everything, still so easily manipulated.

Right. There's no Russian convoy 40 miles long, and there is no war. Hell, even the earth doesn't exist and this is all a bad dream in some alternative universe. They got Twitter there too?

originally posted by: pjb267
But with overwhelming coverage from every media outlet/defence ministry that its "not going to plan" there is probably a grain of truth. Going to plan would be a deposed regime and occupied Kyiv by now

Forgive me but after seeing what the "overwhelming coverage from every media outlet" has led to the past few years with the advent of "covid-19" -- that doesn't mean much to me. If anything it makes me all the more skeptical of the "message" they're trying to sell me.

My disappointment is not so much in the idle speculation about tactics or minor details... but more-so the fact that you're all so easily manipulated into believing their narrative. I'm not saying Russia is the "good side" here... but I sure as hell don't believe the narrative that Putin is doing this just because he wants to re-ignite the "glory days" of the Soviet Union and take over Europe. Considering what dodgy business we know the US has been up to in the Ukraine over the last couple decades, I'm a lot more inclined to believe there's legitimate justification for wanting to clean up shop in Ukraine and certainly a good deal of blame to be shared around... yet all I'm seeing is the childish "RUSSIA BAD / PUTIN EVIL" narrative regurgitated ad nauseam.

originally posted by: jedi_hamster

Sounds like this guy has it good down on paper, but that is NOT what is happening. Civilian structures and residential areas both have been mercilessly been shelled and destroyed. Civilians killed including children, hundreds more wounded. It just hasn't happened as much yet in Kyiv. Drop that guy in Kharkiv for a day and let him look around. Then we'll see what he says. That's if he can pick his jaws up off the floor first. Yappy jaws... everyone's got some.

originally posted by: TrueAmerican
Right. There's no Russian convoy 40 miles long, and there is no war. Hell, even the earth doesn't exist and this is all a bad dream in some alternative universe. They got Twitter there too?

Way to go full-retard.

originally posted by: TrueAmerican

originally posted by: Navieko
You're all speculating based on the assumption that the intel you've been provided is factual. I honestly am saddened by how trusting so many of you seem to be of the media all of a sudden. After everything, still so easily manipulated.

Right. There's no Russian convoy 40 miles long, and there is no war. Hell, even the earth doesn't exist and this is all a bad dream in some alternative universe. They got Twitter there too?

Just for accuracy...

I'm pretty sure the convoy is only 17-18 miles.

Not sure if this is intentional Ukranian deception or stoopid msm, but 95% sure about the 17-18.

Since I don't know whether accidental or intentional I've just been rolling with the 40 mile msm charade here.

Important difference for analysts though.



I couldn't care less about birdface but I really do want those unicorn pics.

They all hate me so the pics they keep sending aren't really 'unicorns'.

a reply to: PatriotGames4u

I think the whole of their 'strategy' was a decapitation attack on Kiev. After that, it was supposed to mopping up and occupation.

But the airborne strike to rapidly seize Kiev failed. And it is looking now like there was no "Plan B".

Cheers

a reply to: Navieko

Well he is a bit naughty i think we can all agree

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

Yeah, either that or this is Plan B. We just ain't seen A yet.