Russia Ukraine Update Thread

originally posted by: Xcathdra
a reply to: Imhere

I honestly dont believe Putin/Russia has the support of the people in Crimea that they think they do. If you get a new Russian leader he might sacrifice his grabs in Ukraine and turn inward to fix things gone by the wayside. Putin had and still has a lot of people that are still pisse4d about grabbing Crimea. Instead of fixing things in Russia millions had to be diverted to Crimea and that torqued a lot of people off.

Putin supposedly has a 79% approval rating and I dont believe that any more than I do of Biden getting 81 million votes in the US.

I see your point. But wouldn’t that just up another Putin?

Regardless, we’re here now. It’s going to be hell taking Crimea away. I’m fully confident a lot of Russian people support Crimea. Kiev etc I can see some Russians saying “NO WAR”

But if it comes down to Crimea? Putin will have back up there. No doubt.

They will be in a defensive position there. The line is there at the very least.

There’s even random kids joking about “Crimea River” Justin Timberlake etc. Across the globe a lot of people know about Crimea for awhile now.

The west doesn’t accept Crimea at all. Wonder what’s next?

Putin would have to start hitting Ukraine hardcore with full force. Make him seem the devil like he’s exterminating civilians. Loses support.

West goes to war. Lose Crimea at that point.

If it gets to that point. Game over. Worst nightmare for everybody.

We do NOT want that. For the record I don’t take pleasure thinking at any time a bright flash in the distance could appear. Imagine the moment. A lot of us have. It would be an instant bricking in your pants moment like an Armageddon event.

I just don’t see Crimea being let go anytime soon, and if it does, something major would have to happen.

Double cheers.

I slapped together a meem...

a reply to: Imhere


I predict russians will completely abandon Crimea when this is over.

Complete russian withdrawal from Ukraine.



Yes, I actually said it.

I know exactly what it means.

I now believe it.

Quote me.



Goliath is terrified and confused.

Will soon feel the shame.



It's going THAT bad for russia.

National suicide actually happened.

a reply to: FlyingFox

originally posted by: PatriotGames4u
a reply to: Imhere


I predict russians will completely abandon Crimea when this is over.

Complete russian withdrawal from Ukraine.



Yes, I actually said it.

I know exactly what it means.

I now believe it.

Quote me.



Goliath is terrified and confused.

Will soon feel the shame.



It's going THAT bad for russia.

National suicide actually happened.

I can see your view too. Ok, but then you might as well give up nukes completely because what’s the point?

Crimea is seen now Russian. Might as well have the tanks roll into Moscow. Crimea isn’t Moscow but you get the point.

If I was Russian, I would risk it and defend Crimea to the max at the very least. Kiev, ehhhh. Crimea no way.

Full blown war there. Might as well steam roll Russia and its people out of existence.

I don’t think good things will develop regardless if this scenario happens either way.

Only good way is negotiations.

Hey Crimea was a gift to Ukraine. If they want it back that bad, it’s going to be bad.

a reply to: JinMI

They tried this in Syria.

a reply to: Imhere


Russians themselves will insist on removing Russians from Ukraine.

The next Russian leader will also publicly apologize for what putin did.

No idea on timing yet.



I know exactly how crazy it sounds.

I'm not worried about it.

I always sound crazy until everyone else catches up.

Gaming this out now leads to that result with very high probability.

That is NEW in the last few hours.



As a result of putin marching 100,000 now completely defenseless russian soldiers directly into the center of the largest kill zone the world has seen since Kursk.

40 miles long.

Completely trapped by burning tanks & trucks with Javelins suddenly appearing from 'everywhere'.

It's gonna be a russian bloodbath or russian surrender.

Absolutely historic.

a reply to: Imhere

From what I am seeing is Russia is taking heavy losses trying to capture the largest cities. Russians hate street to street fighting unless they have overwhelming force. They do not have it in Ukraine, which leaves them with the surround and siege option (the very tactic they used to "subdue"
Chechnya).

They will surround the cities and grind them into the dirt with rockets and artillery until the military and population give up.

As for Crimea - then they are at loggerheads. Russia claims it. Ukraine claims it. In the international realm Ukraine will win the argument fight since Russia already gave up their claims to Crimea under the Budapest agreement. As for another Putin - I think there are people in Russia that could run the country without all the hangups with history and the cold war. I think there could even be a person that could give a positive direction for Russia to go without having to constantly worry about being invaded.

The fact Russians, at least this generation, grew up under their version of Democracy and not communism will be the changing force to get Russia over that hump. There is a wedge between the older generation (communism cold war) and the younger generation (democracy and freedoms). Of course they wont see eye to eye but the younger generation has the bonus of out living the current ruling class and in the end I believe that is whats going to save Russia.

originally posted by: PatriotGames4u
a reply to: Imhere


Russians themselves will insist on removing Russians from Ukraine.

The next Russian leader will also publicly apologize for what putin did.

No idea on timing yet.



I know exactly how crazy it sounds.

I'm not worried about it.

I always sound crazy until everyone else catches up.

Gaming this out now leads to that result with very high probability.

That is NEW in the last few hours.

Disagree.

I think you’re underestimating a bit about the average Russian.

They are willing to throw their trousers in an event of being defeated.

Hardcore.

Crimea will be fought to the death. You would have to completely steam roll Russia itself out of existence.

This is who they are.

This is a messy situation and we all know it. This isn’t N Korea and where Putin is Kim.

Why do you think nobody wants a war with Russia? Some want war with Russia, but know it’s going to be messed up

There’s a possible reverse effect here too. Is the average Pro west citizen going to go to World War Armageddon over Crimea?

If that’s the negotiation here. Crimea.

There will be riots and protesting here like we never seen.

a reply to: Imhere


putin basically offered that in their meeting.

Zelinsky told him to get ALL russians out of ALL Ukraine and went back to the battlefront.



I thought he was just bluffing.

HAD to be bluffing.

Or maybe lost his mind.



Now I understand.

Everyone will soon.

originally posted by: Xcathdra
a reply to: Imhere

From what I am seeing is Russia is taking heavy losses trying to capture the largest cities. Russians hate street to street fighting unless they have overwhelming force. They do not have it in Ukraine, which leaves them with the surround and siege option (the very tactic they used to "subdue"
Chechnya).

They will surround the cities and grind them into the dirt with rockets and artillery until the military and population give up.

As for Crimea - then they are at loggerheads. Russia claims it. Ukraine claims it. In the international realm Ukraine will win the argument fight since Russia already gave up their claims to Crimea under the Budapest agreement. As for another Putin - I think there are people in Russia that could run the country without all the hangups with history and the cold war. I think there could even be a person that could give a positive direction for Russia to go without having to constantly worry about being invaded.

The fact Russians, at least this generation, grew up under their version of Democracy and not communism will be the changing force to get Russia over that hump. There is a wedge between the older generation (communism cold war) and the younger generation (democracy and freedoms). Of course they wont see eye to eye but the younger generation has the bonus of out living the current ruling class and in the end I believe that is whats going to save Russia.

I think it’s the opposite actually. There’s constant chatter with the newer generation like about Bidens son in Ukraine etc etc and are smart enough to think for themselves to go against it.

Like there’s half here in the country calling out the Democrats BS all the time.

originally posted by: vNex92
In Czech Republic you would be arrested for supporting Russia's action.
Anyone Supporting Russia's Actions would be arrested we are monitoring comments

Oh dear. We're talking about the country that was pro Russian and even them turned around regarding the views. We are talking about roughly 8 websites that were spewing crap.

Don't try to spin this one. Some of us ACCTUALLY reading those news They HAD to do it. Not everybody in Czech are profound in English language to get BOTH views.

originally posted by: PatriotGames4u
a reply to: Imhere


I predict russians will completely abandon Crimea when this is over.

Complete russian withdrawal from Ukraine.



Yes, I actually said it.

I know exactly what it means.

I now believe it.

Quote me.



Goliath is terrified and confused.

Will soon feel the shame.



It's going THAT bad for russia.

National suicide actually happened.

keep your wet dreams to yourself.

and better start praying, because when russia bombs the sh.t out of ukraine, western trigger-happy morons may be willing to start a WW3.

and we all know it won't end well.

originally posted by: jedi_hamster

originally posted by: PatriotGames4u
a reply to: Imhere


I predict russians will completely abandon Crimea when this is over.

Complete russian withdrawal from Ukraine.



Yes, I actually said it.

I know exactly what it means.

I now believe it.

Quote me.



Goliath is terrified and confused.

Will soon feel the shame.



It's going THAT bad for russia.

National suicide actually happened.

keep your wet dreams to yourself.

and better start praying, because when russia bombs the sh.t out of ukraine, western trigger-happy morons may be willing to start a WW3.

and we all know it won't end well.

Putin already failed and your ww3 threats aren't gonna scare us any more than your economic threats did.

Not one little bit.

Russians are just starting to realize that.



Oh, to be a fly on the wall.

Oh wait...

originally posted by: jedi_hamster

originally posted by: PatriotGames4u
a reply to: Imhere


I predict russians will completely abandon Crimea when this is over.

Complete russian withdrawal from Ukraine.



Yes, I actually said it.

I know exactly what it means.

I now believe it.

Quote me.



Goliath is terrified and confused.

Will soon feel the shame.



It's going THAT bad for russia.

National suicide actually happened.

keep your wet dreams to yourself.

and better start praying, because when russia bombs the sh.t out of ukraine, western trigger-happy morons may be willing to start a WW3.

and we all know it won't end well.

Re: twitter.com...

Putin is not sitting that far away because he's afraid of Covid (like Joe Biden is).

He knows all about infiltration and how he's a marked man...even within his own circle right now.

If Russia begins mass-murder in Ukraine, I hope someone will take Putin out...really fast, before he can give any nuclear orders.

* - Damage in Kharkiv state administration after missile strike

* - Russian troops in Kamyshany, western outskirts of Kherson this morning. Likely the unit which moved deeper into the city

* - A Volga Dnepr Airlines IL-76 has just landed in Bratislava, Slovakia from Moscow. Unknown at the moment is the reason special permission was granted to this flight to overfly prohibited airspace for Russian aircraft

* - Active at 19:00 UTC — nearly all airspace in Europe is now unavailable to Russian flights as North Macedonia joins the list of states prohibiting flights.

* - Aeroflot #SU7236 is holding over the Turkish-Greek airspace boundary. Filed flight plan is for Verona. Greek airspace is currently restricted without special clearance for Russian flights. This flight number is non-standard for Aeroflot.

* - Ukrainian airspace is closed to all civil flights as of 24 February. Russia issued its own NOTAM closing its western airspace bordering the Ukrainian border. Ukrainian neighbor Moldova has also closed its airspace to all but essential traffic. A number of countries have also issued NOTAMS prohibiting their airlines from overflying Ukrainian airspace as an extra layer of regulatory protection.

* - European Union and other states close their airspace to Russian
The United Kingdom issued a NOTAM on 24 February (see below) barring Russian airlines and any flights associated with a Russian person from operating in UK airspace or to UK airports, with the exception of transatlantic overflights. Since then the European Union, Canada, and other states have banned flights by Russian aircraft, airlines, or ‘persons associated with Russia.’ See below for a complete list of states that now prohibit Russian flights.

* - Russia reciprocates by banning flights in its airspace
Russia has now banned flights from Russian airspace by the countries that have banned Russian flights, affecting service to Russian destinations as well as overflights, including British Airways and Virgin Atlantic service to India. Below is an example of the re-routing for a BA flight from Delhi to London. Airlines like Finnair are acutely affected by a ban from Russian airspace

* - Russian flights at Kaliningrad Even though surrounding countries have closed their airspace to Russian aircraft, flights at Kaliningrad are able to operate due to the legal definition of national airspace. By operating through the narrow corridor that is technically international airspace (more than 12 nautical miles beyond the coastal baseline—with some caveats), flights can continue.

originally posted by: Imhere
There will be riots and protesting here like we never seen.

With a controlled press, we don't know much about what some inhabitants of Crimea did to protest after the Russian invasion/annexation. We do know that human rights were thrown out of the window, people were evicted and reports of extrajudicial punishments and executions were carried out.

This invasion of Ukraine could end with the toppling of Putin. If that happens, then all bets are off around what a peace settlement may entail. I would certainly expect Crimea to be returned to Ukraine if Russia is to be accepted back into civilised society. It's just such a shame the West did not have the balls to act in 2014 when Russia first took Crimea, becuase had that happened we would not be watching this war of Russian aggression unfold.

originally posted by: Xcathdra
* - Damage in Kharkiv state administration after missile strike

* - Russian troops in Kamyshany, western outskirts of Kherson this morning. Likely the unit which moved deeper into the city

Single Source said russians went scorched earth with massive indiscriminate 3+ hour artillery and rocket barrage into the heart of the city after pulling the last of the russian survivors out of Kharkiv.

This is what I was referring to several hours ago.

I HOPE he's exaggerating, but didn't get that impression.

He did say that most Ukrainians in the city were never in any danger, except for a few hundred 'Kharkiv Kids' that were caught above ground when the shelling started.

This was posted in another thread but thought it worth re-posting here for people who are actually interested in some facts (or at least some realistic opinions) about what's really going on:
For the record, the guy actually lives in Kiev.

Russia Will Never leave Crimea...

Sevastopol Naval Base..

Also from what i see is russia is just peppering Ukraine atm ,Military wise.

Negotiations must be had and some Capitulation..

Otherwise things Unfortunately for the Ukrainians will get alot worse

Imho

Stay Safe
Rious