Whats going on at yellowstone?

reply to post by Shirakawa


Thank you for that graphic! I knew you'd probably have something like that.

So then the opposing forces are in the ground rising (or shifting?)above the caldera, vs the surounding area... pushing out vs in, over thousands of years?

Hopefully the lull it seems to be in now marks the end of the more exciting activity for this round!

reply to post by derekvli


There were probably a few who gritted their teeth when you asked a question. That's because I've written many times since this swarm began. So you can go back and read and you may find your answer there.

I based it on observation I made during last year's swarm. I'll provide you a few pages where I first bring up the idea. This is a big thread, they were hard to find.
www.abovetopsecret.com...
www.abovetopsecret.com...
www.abovetopsecret.com...
www.abovetopsecret.com...
It was like going back in time.

You can make your own calculations and find out. 2012 does not have this cycle. And I'm not sure if it happens in the summer as well when the earth is its furthest away from the sun. Both these events happened in the winter. Find the full moon when it's closet to earth at perigee. The closer the full moon to perigee the better. It must then be followed by a new moon at or near maximum perigee. The earth must be it's closet point, it's perihilion. Neither the sun's orbit or the moon orbit is a perfect circle like you see with kid's science fair models of the solar system.

So here's a Moon calender for apogee perigee, and if I screw them up, it's because I can't tell me left foot from my right foot.
You make the next prediction and see if there's a swarm. That New Moon came with an amazing eclipse. If you in the Maldives.

www.fourmilab.ch...


As far as tectonic forces in the area of the swarm. There are several. Including the subduction from the Pacific Plate under the North American Plate. Then you have smaller zones and mountain ranges intersecting with the basian created by the plume and the faults from the rim, deep faults. Could be any one of them or new one forming. As Shirakawa has demonstrated, there is no magma moving, but it doesn't have to channell anywhere to have an affect. The chamber could just swell. So the activity is rock on rock along a fault. It could be an old fault from a previous eruption, an old caldera rim.

Originally posted by Robin Marks
Does anyone have an accurate count of quakes to this point. From a new source or USGS. Last I heard, 469 official. Any sources???

An import of quakes from the UUSS I saw done this morning had a total of 893 hypocenters within the park's boundaries. (This isn't on my site, it's elsewhere; mine only shows a total of 166 since the 15th, but that's from NCEDC.) Need to update my data source...

Sorry, forgot to mention the UUSS data's timeframe: 1/17 to early this morning, 1/21. The "official" swarm timeframe. I don't think the YVO considers the 15th and 16th part of it...

[edit on 1/21/2010 by Thought Provoker]

YVO has issued a new press release:

volcanoes.usgs.gov...

The earthquake swarm on the northwest edge of Yellowstone Caldera that began on January 17, 2010 continues.

PRESS RELEASE FROM YVO PARTNER UNIVERSITY OF UTAH SEISMOGRAPH STATIONS

Released: January 21, 2010 2:00PM MST

This release is a continuation of information updates building upon our two previous press releases on the ongoing earthquake swarm on the west side of Yellowstone National Park. The University of Utah Seismograph Stations reports that a pair of earthquakes of magnitude 3.7 and 3.8 occurred in the evening of January 20, 2010 in Yellowstone National Park.

The first event of magnitude 3.7 occurred at 11:01 PM and was shortly followed by a magnitude 3.8 event at 11:16 PM. Both shocks were located around 9 miles to the southeast of West Yellowstone, MT and about 10 miles to the northwest of Old Faithful, WY. Both events were felt throughout the park and in surrounding communities in Wyoming, Montana, and Idaho.

These two earthquakes are part of an ongoing swarm in Yellowstone National Park that began January 17, 2010 (1:00 PM MST). The largest earthquake in the swarm as of 12 PM, January 21, 2010, was a magnitude 3.8. There have been 901 located earthquakes in the swarm of magnitude 0.5 to 3.8. This includes 8 events of magnitude larger than 3, with 68 events of magnitude 2 to 3, and 825 events of magnitude less than 2. There have been multiple personal reports of ground shaking from observations inside the Park and in surrounding areas for some of the larger events (for felt reports, please visit earthquake.usgs.gov...). Earthquake swarms are relatively common in Yellowstone.

The swarm earthquakes are likely the result of slip on pre-existing faults rather than underground movement of magma. Currently there is no indication of premonitory volcanic or hydrothermal activity, but ongoing observations and analyses will continue to evaluate these different sources.

Seismic information on the earthquake can be viewed at the University of Utah Seismograph Stations: www.seis.utah.edu...

Seismograph recordings from stations of the Yellowstone seismograph network can be viewed online at: quake.utah.edu...

Anyone who has felt earthquakes in the swarm are encouraged to fill out a form on the USGS Community Felt reports web site: earthquake.usgs.gov...

This press release was prepared by the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory partners of the U.S. Geological Survey, the University of Utah, and the National Park Service: volcanoes.usgs.gov...

reply to post by Thought Provoker


I'd like to have that source too... For now for precise data I rely on the ANSS catalog, which is a bit behind the official (public) UUSS Yellowstone earthquake catalog.

[edit on 2010-1-21 by Shirakawa]

If it keeps following the current pattern, there should be another 2-3+ mag in the next 15-20 minutes.

so around 1510-1515 MST

(and it's likely to be a 'double' )

Edit to make an obvious correction. It appears I should leave the predicting to others: As you can tell by the time stamp on the original post, my math was off. I read the webicorder wrong and did not compare it to my OWN clock. The correct time would be at 1530-1535. Or about ten minutes from now (2:26 here on the west coast right now)

[edit on 21-1-2010 by westcoast]

[edit on 21-1-2010 by westcoast]

reply to post by Thought Provoker


The USGS is incorrect to exclude Jan 15th and 16th. According to their own defintion, it's not the number of quake in a day, it's if it is part of the cycle. The quakes from Jan 15-16 were in the exact swarm location.

If you look at this USGS supplied article on swarms, you will note that all swarms had slow begins and these quakes are included in the swarm. On the page, check and you will see the 1985 swarm starts with as little as 5-10 quakes. The chart for 1995 shows the very same thing. A swarm with a few minor quakes the days before the main event. By the USGS's own standards, these need to be included.

volcanoes.usgs.gov...

900 official quakes. That means this is at par with last year's swarm. And there is no question this is a "Notable" swarm. Not your garden variety swarm. It will be listed the same as 1985, 1995, 2004, and 2008/09. Now you can add in 2010 as a historically important swarm. The one thing I keep hearing in the press and the media releases is that this is all common and normal. Like a cop at an accident telling people there's nothing to see. This swarm, in my humble opinion, is not normal and not as common as they repeatedly assure. What ever they say, you can't avoid the fact that we have a giant active volcano and it's rumbling. That's the fact. Common or otherwise.


[edit on 21-1-2010 by Robin Marks]

Originally posted by Robin Marks
What ever they say, you can't avoid the fact that we have a giant active volcano and it's rumbling. That's the fact. Common or otherwise.

When it goes, Rest assured that it will be 'Unexpected', 'No warnings' 'Unavoidable'(loss of life)

Not that im saying that the area should be evacuated it seems that the pressure is building and the swarm shows no sign of slowing.

Added edit: The post at: 22-1-2010 @ 01:12 AM
This shows numerical significance in your prediction
(if you believe in that stuff)

[edit on 21-1-2010 by GW8UK]

Okay, so in my last post at 4:12 I said there should be a 'double' quake in 15-20 mins. That would make it at 4:27-4:32.

There were just two back-to-back quakes at 4:27 and 4:29

I'm not good at measuring, but they obviously aren't as big as I predicted.

My point in all this is not to try and get it right (not hard right now, with as many 'chances' you have at guessing), but that there is a pattern there. Especially now on todays webicorder, if you stand back and look at it.

What's it mean? I have absolutely NO idea. But it's interesting!

Just curious if any one has a link that these EQ's are indeed outside of the caldera-I did a Google earth image with the points of epicenters plotted and then overlaid a topographical of the caldera and domes and the majority of these EQ's happened at the NW edge of the caldera, due NW of the MLD, and a few happening between the SW edge of the Caldera and the Mallard Lake Dome.
Anyone have differing info?

reply to post by Buidhe


I'm not sure if this is what you want but it shows the positions of these current quakes which are inside the caldera, just inside the rim.

www.seis.utah.edu...

Beautiful, thank you. That confirmed the map I jimmy-rigged together. In your link it looks like both the Mallard Lake Dome and the Sour Creek Dome show as a dense network of faults within the Caldera too, to give an idea of where the magma chambers are.

news.discovery.com...

Interesting study on the interrelation of the magma plume, chambers(domes), and a possible underground conduit of fluid pressure release at the NW corner of the YSC where the largest EQ swarms at YS have occurred in the past:

quake.usgs.gov...

I've made updated charts with new earthquake data, which by the way is still not complete:

GW8UK you wrote
" Added edit: The post at: 22-1-2010 @ 01:12 AM
This shows numerical significance in your prediction
(if you believe in that stuff)

I don't understand 22-1-2010 @01:12 AM,
Isnt' that tonight, I can find no other post at that time.

Try again?

Calming down maybe??


[edit on 21-1-2010 by Robin Marks]

For those interested, I've also uploaded a 'sound' video covering the fourth day of earthquake swarm seismicity at Yellowstone. It includes the M3.7 and M3.8 earthquakes too:

Calming down maybe??


[edit on 21-1-2010 by Robin Marks] I would be confident to say that this is a yes. Somebody once said" Good news Is boring News"

reply to post by Shirakawa

I love these videos! They really make it east to see patterns and the true intensities of these events.... Keep it up man!

reply to post by Sf18443


Yes, that's why I make them!
Ears can recognize patterns and subtle differences better than eyes.

For those of you that visit the RSOE site, it has listed Yellowstone on it's list with a 'watch' status with the details pending.

Anyone have any more info on a status change?

here is a link:

RSOE
\
scroll down to the volcano section!