Whats going on at yellowstone?

Ok, tell me if I'm seeing things that aren't really there, or that are perhaps normal - but it looks to me like there are a lot of incidences where there are what look like two quakes close together that almost mirror each other - it occurs several times in the latest YMR readout.... what do you think?

reply to post by MoorfNZ


I've seen that too, but unfortunately I'm not expert enough to tell what that means.

Originally posted by lernmore
If that super-volcano pops, life itself would get very interesting. It wouldn't be pretty.

On the other hand, we wouldn't have to deal with that silly global warming debate any longer.

volcanoes.usgs.gov...

Remain calm. According to the website there, this kind of activity is "relatively common." I'm not sure how to interpret that, but the "alert level" is normal. I think that's what it should be, i.e., there is no "low" on the scale.

It'd be wetting my pants if I were visiting there and felt the ground shaking (some was reported). Run for the car and head anyway far away.

What is that strange reading (sloping green line c. 7.50) Haven't seen that before....

reply to post by MoorfNZ


It's most probably just a webicorder glitch.
Nothing to be worried about.

reply to post by MoorfNZ


I was just about to ask the same thing

Wonderful! Out of it for a few days and Old Yellow goes nuts!

In order of Magnitude from highest to 1.0 descending (total 101 quakes in 7 days)

EQ ID,Version,Date/Time UTC,Latitude,Longitude,Magnitude
997,4,21/01/2010 06:16,44.568,-110.9731,3.7
992,4,21/01/2010 06:01,44.5675,-110.9793,3.6
719,5,19/01/2010 21:32,44.5622,-110.9735,3.5
558,5,19/01/2010 03:39,44.566,-110.9692,3.4
790,5,20/01/2010 04:41,44.5687,-110.966,3.3
680,5,19/01/2010 16:48,44.5655,-110.9645,3.3
766,5,20/01/2010 01:35,44.561,-110.9683,3.2
461,5,18/01/2010 18:03,44.5603,-110.9688,3.1
568,5,19/01/2010 04:42,44.5692,-110.9675,3
926,5,20/01/2010 21:43,44.5712,-110.9737,2.9
483,5,18/01/2010 19:38,44.563,-110.9625,2.9
1057,2,21/01/2010 09:05,44.5661,-110.9773,2.8
534,5,18/01/2010 23:56,44.5622,-110.9647,2.8
954,2,21/01/2010 01:19,44.5688,-110.9758,2.7
340,5,18/01/2010 02:38,44.5625,-110.9683,2.7
308,3,18/01/2010 00:02,44.557,-110.9672,2.7
265,3,17/01/2010 21:04,44.5567,-110.9655,2.7
1096,2,21/01/2010 11:07,44.5555,-110.9783,2.6
662,3,19/01/2010 13:26,44.5613,-110.9663,2.6
646,3,19/01/2010 10:36,44.5672,-110.9628,2.6
445,3,18/01/2010 16:00,44.5605,-110.9685,2.6
1027,2,21/01/2010 07:48,44.5801,-110.9745,2.5
918,3,20/01/2010 20:10,44.5622,-110.9743,2.5
915,3,20/01/2010 20:00,44.5638,-110.9742,2.5
1200445,2,20/01/2010 04:42,44.5647,-110.9585,2.5
786,5,20/01/2010 04:12,44.5693,-110.9667,2.5
1192133,3,19/01/2010 21:33,44.5525,-110.966,2.5
1181010,2,18/01/2010 10:10,44.557,-110.9658,2.5
1180245,3,18/01/2010 02:44,44.5555,-110.9643,2.5
322,3,18/01/2010 01:04,44.5587,-110.9675,2.5
288,3,17/01/2010 22:43,44.557,-110.9665,2.5
1172156,3,17/01/2010 21:55,44.5558,-110.965,2.5
712,2,19/01/2010 21:07,44.5516,-110.9751,2.4
1190939,2,19/01/2010 09:39,44.5623,-110.9723,2.4
505,2,18/01/2010 20:50,44.5598,-110.9663,2.4
874,2,20/01/2010 14:27,44.5611,-110.9676,2.3
665,2,19/01/2010 13:39,44.5591,-110.9678,2.3
1190539,2,19/01/2010 05:39,44.5675,-110.975,2.3
1182046,2,18/01/2010 20:46,44.562,-110.9612,2.3
1172335,2,17/01/2010 23:35,44.56,-110.9647,2.3
824,4,20/01/2010 08:27,44.5633,-110.9723,2.2
1190552,2,19/01/2010 05:52,44.5575,-110.9628,2.2
718,4,19/01/2010 21:32,44.5635,-110.9696,2.1
1172038,2,17/01/2010 20:38,44.5545,-110.9652,2.1
1172050,2,17/01/2010 20:50,44.5558,-110.9662,2
1190208,2,19/01/2010 02:07,44.5583,-110.9692,1.9
403,5,18/01/2010 10:10,44.558,-110.9622,1.9
1172056,2,17/01/2010 20:56,44.557,-110.9635,1.9
1200442,2,20/01/2010 04:42,44.5657,-110.9503,1.8
1200441,2,20/01/2010 04:41,44.5573,-110.951,1.8
1200007,2,20/01/2010 00:07,44.5657,-110.9725,1.8
1182249,2,18/01/2010 22:49,44.5655,-110.9698,1.8
1160552,2,16/01/2010 05:52,44.5782,-110.9363,1.7
1200412,2,20/01/2010 04:12,44.5715,-110.9587,1.6
1190021,2,19/01/2010 00:21,44.5563,-110.9682,1.6
1182343,2,18/01/2010 23:43,44.5627,-110.9612,1.6
1056,4,21/01/2010 09:04,44.5668,-110.9721,1.5
1200443,2,20/01/2010 04:43,44.5685,-110.972,1.5
1200148,2,20/01/2010 01:48,44.5557,-110.9647,1.5
1200014,2,20/01/2010 00:13,44.563,-110.9647,1.5
1181600,2,18/01/2010 16:00,44.5638,-110.9675,1.5
1172339,2,17/01/2010 23:37,44.5503,-110.9688,1.5
1172317,2,17/01/2010 23:17,44.5577,-110.9607,1.5
1172115,2,17/01/2010 21:15,44.5562,-110.9652,1.5
1170020,2,17/01/2010 00:19,44.5728,-110.9232,1.5
1150911,2,15/01/2010 09:11,44.5742,-110.927,1.5
1200145,2,20/01/2010 01:45,44.5533,-110.9698,1.4
1200038,2,20/01/2010 00:38,44.556,-110.9722,1.4
1182246,2,18/01/2010 22:46,44.5578,-110.9658,1.4
1180253,2,18/01/2010 02:53,44.5413,-110.9548,1.4
1172329,2,17/01/2010 23:29,44.5508,-110.969,1.4
1200140,2,20/01/2010 01:40,44.555,-110.9662,1.3
1200027,2,20/01/2010 00:27,44.5597,-110.9595,1.3
1190056,2,19/01/2010 00:56,44.3955,-110.8267,1.3
1182304,2,18/01/2010 23:04,44.5587,-110.9582,1.3
1172023,2,17/01/2010 20:23,44.5517,-110.9585,1.3
1162220,2,16/01/2010 22:20,44.5705,-110.9172,1.3
1162038,2,16/01/2010 20:38,44.5712,-110.8892,1.3
1160924,2,16/01/2010 09:22,44.5707,-110.9222,1.3
1200111,2,20/01/2010 01:11,44.5582,-110.9715,1.2
1180024,2,18/01/2010 00:24,44.558,-110.965,1.2
1172306,2,17/01/2010 23:06,44.5573,-110.9615,1.2
1172101,2,17/01/2010 21:01,44.5555,-110.957,1.2
1160918,2,16/01/2010 09:18,44.5685,-110.9235,1.2
1200055,2,20/01/2010 00:55,44.5597,-110.9515,1.1
1200029,2,20/01/2010 00:29,44.5498,-110.9613,1.1
1190444,2,19/01/2010 04:43,44.5622,-110.9555,1.1
1180239,2,18/01/2010 02:39,44.5607,-110.9623,1.1
1172350,2,17/01/2010 23:50,44.546,-110.9653,1.1
1200413,2,20/01/2010 04:13,44.5787,-110.8958,1
1200101,2,20/01/2010 01:01,44.5642,-110.965,1
1190940,2,19/01/2010 09:40,44.5645,-110.9537,1
1190214,2,19/01/2010 02:14,44.5713,-110.97,1
1190118,2,19/01/2010 01:18,44.5652,-110.9625,1
1182236,2,18/01/2010 22:36,44.5625,-110.9597,1
1180246,2,18/01/2010 02:45,44.5467,-110.9577,1
1180032,2,18/01/2010 00:32,44.5548,-110.959,1
1180031,2,18/01/2010 00:31,44.5498,-110.9668,1
1180002,2,18/01/2010 00:02,44.5428,-110.9573,1
1172017,2,17/01/2010 20:17,44.5445,-110.9572,1
1160956,2,16/01/2010 09:56,44.5657,-110.9228,1

There's only one problem comparing the 1985 swarm to the current swarm.
The swarm in 1985 was not within the caldera. Almost all of those quakes were outside the rim with only a relative few being on the rim.

The geologists are saying swarms are relatively common. Stating there have been 90 swarms since, I think, 1995. But that is misleading because most of those 90 were outside the caldera and many of the them were small and not comparable to what's happening at the moment. This swarm is well on the way to equalling the number of quakes from last year. We have to be well over 500 quakes now, over half way now. One big quake and we'll be reaching equal the cumlative energy levels as well. Last year's swarm was not a normal swarm, it was "NOTABLE", it was extensively studied and watched keenly by the scientists. And you can bet their interest is also hieghtened as events continue. In my humble opinion last year's swarm was historically important and will be studied as such.

Since 1973, there has only been 14 swarms within the cladera. Which means that swarms within the cadera are far far less common. An average of just over two years between events. And many of those swarms were small. And out of that 90 the quote, many of them were "relatively" small. I don't believe you can compare swarms well outside the caldera and that are not directly over the magama chamer. Having two major swarms within the caldera one year apart is not common. All swarms are not created equal.

Oh Hi, Puterman. at the bottom of your list your missing a few events. The swarm started on the 15th with 3 quakes, and the there are ten for the 16th. The swarm started 9:15 UTC Jan 15th. One hour and fifty eight minutes after the new moon.


[edit on 21-1-2010 by Robin Marks]

reply to post by Robin Marks


Hi Robin, yes I was just showing the last 7 days. I had not looked to see how far back, but I am interested that you said it was just after the full moon.

I have the graph of the last 7 days. I am just trying to work out how you get it on here.

Edit: Found out how

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/0b822d558523.jpg[/atsimg]

Edit: Sorry still a bit too big but at least 100 on the edge is the last plot


[edit on 21/1/2010 by PuterMan]

Originally posted by PuterMan
reply to post by Robin Marks

 

"Hi Robin, yes I was just showing the last 7 days. I had not looked to see how far back, but I am interested that you said it was just after the full moon."

Helloooo Puterman,

Actually it was a NEW MOON. And the moon reach apogee on the 17th. You've rejoined the party late and missed my analysis of events. Just read my many comments over the last few day and you'll read my conclusion which validates my hypothesis. I developed my hypothesis after last year's swarm. And I applied to this past lunar cycle. I repeat the results. That's science. I predicted this swarm using the moon's cycle back on Dec 29th 2009. Almost three weeks before the first quake. This swarm, like the one last year started just after a NEW MOON which reached a maximum apogee. Shirakawa thinks my prediction's accuracy is coincidence. I predicted he/she would say that.

Here's the prediction:

www.abovetopsecret.com...

What do you think? hmmm I was dead on? Nailed it. This is my swarm. I was the first person in the world to know it was going to happen. Nearly three weeks before the fact.











[edit on 21-1-2010 by Robin Marks]

[edit on 21-1-2010 by Robin Marks]

Just an observation and conjecture.

After the two powerfull back to back big quakes last night, I was hoping they were the main events. It would seems the very vigorous small shakes could be aftershocks.

Does anyone have an accurate count of quakes to this point. From a new source or USGS. Last I heard, 469 official. Any sources???


[edit on 21-1-2010 by Robin Marks]

I just read the press release on the YVO website. It is not entirely accurate. It states the swarm began on the 17th. This is not true. On Friday the were three quakes, Saturday 10. All of them in the exact epicenter of this swarm. In the 90 swarms since 1995, many of them had gaps of days, even weeks, so long as the quakes were part of an ongoing cycle. So by their own accounting and criteria. You have to add in the 15th and 16th. The weeks prior to the swarm it was quiet in the area. There were very few quakes in Dec.

This is the first quake of the swarm.

www.seis.utah.edu...

I saw it because I was watching like a hawk because I knew it would become a swarm. From Friday on, I watched every moment. Go back to the pages before the swarm to get a sense of what was happening. Nothing. Puterman and myself almost started arguing about climate change. (we did, Puterman you know better than to get me started)

Saturday when I saw the constant beating with the ten quakes, I was sure something was brewing. Then on Sunday I was happy there were no quakes in the morning when I woke up. That wierd 20 hour pause. I was glad because I was wrong and wouldn't have to worry about convincing anyone that I understand what's happening at Yellowstone. I would have been happier to have been wrong. Midday Sunday I freaked out. Once I saw it I knew it wasn't going to stop. I was taking care of my son. I couldn't write much. And I had to keep a lid on my emotions. Tough stuff. Out of the six billion people in the world. I was the first one to identify this swarm. I knew it the moment a quake showed up just hours after the New Moon. From that moment on I waited, holding my breath for the moon to reach apogee. Then nothing. 20 hours of calm before the storm. Then snap, crakle, pop, we got a swarm. Puteman read the pages where I ask Shirakawa to identify two small curious quakes. They are markers. Key to understanding what happened.

[edit on 21-1-2010 by Robin Marks]

reply to post by Robin Marks


Hi Robin,

I think I understand what you are saying about the quakes happening after the moon is at its furthest point from earth. Can you help understand how you are tying in the the earths rotation around the sun and moon on how you came to this conclusion? I am not clear on this. Based on your calculations, when is the next swarm going to occur after this one ends? It should be easy to calculate and predict again correct since it is just 2 factors that happen rather timely? I am not trying to challenge your theory, just trying to understand it better. I think I understand the moon part, please help with position of Sun.

Thanks.

Good morning, Yellowstonians. So far so good this morning, let's hope last night was the main event and activity continues to taper off.

The University of Utah now has a much more complete list of quakes, if you select the "all quakes" list:

www.seis.utah.edu...

It still only lists 164 since 1/16, but it's much closer to a complete list than what was there before.

Robin and Shirakawa: (and anyone else that wants to chime in)

I have a question for you:

I have been an amature 'quake watcher' ever since we had a large one out here a little over 10 yrs ago. Since then, I have checked in with USGS on a daily basis and done some basic reading-up on what/how quakes work. Fascinating stuff, and until recently, my family and friends thought it was an odd hobby. Now they turn to me whenever something happens.

Anyways, I can't help but wonder about the mechanics behind this swarm. Most of the well known and studied quake areas (ring of fire) are done so because they are the product of a fault line or subduction zone. Yellowstone is so unique, ofcourse, because it is a caldera...and one of the most beautiful places on earth.

I can understand the swarms that occur oustide of the caldera a little more...but this particular swarm (as Robin already pointed out) is a little more rare because it is INSIDE the caldera. The experts have already stated that the quakes being produced are tectonic in nature. I understand that to mean that the energy being released is the result of two opposing forces slipping, such as with a fault line or subduction zone. BUT...this is a caldera. What are the opposing forces down there? What is colliding to expel the incredible amount of energy that we are wittnessing?

Please correct me if I am wrong, but I believe that at the depth that the majority of these quakes are occuring would put them ABOVE the magma chamber. COULD these quakes indicate the 'tearing apart' of the ground above the chamber? If not, then what else?

If this is, in fact, a 'tear' working apart, would we then expect to see the harmonic tremors indicating the magma chamber pushing up into that tear or chimney? I so, wouldn't it be somewhat accurate to NOT expect the typical other signs of volcanic activity (off gassing, temp. ect.) until that tear became big enough....which I would speculate could be very sudden?

I look forward to your perspective on the cause of these tremors and if you feel that part or none of my perceptions are accurate.

Thank you in advance!

Edit to add: I just had a thought dawn on me as I looked at the webicorder and made a thump-thump sound to indicate the re-occuring double quakes. (like a heartbeat) I picture a pocket of air within a solid mass (magma chamber) with a ragged crack all the way around it. As the forces shift, the 'crack' slips, first forward and then back again into its original position, almost like two opposing gears 'teeth' not quit catching to rachet forward. This would explain the double, almost identical quakes. They are the same 'slip' going first one direction, and then back again. Or else the two sides of the crack expanding and contracting, like a breath in and out. Whatchya think?

[edit on 21-1-2010 by westcoast]

[edit on 21-1-2010 by westcoast]

reply to post by westcoast


I know what you mean I think.....I kinda picture it like rebounding back and forth a bit, like a drunk walking down a hallway, each opposing wall knocking him back to the next....if that makes any sense...... or like a piece of sheet metal, bending too much in one direction, and then shooting back in the other, because it is so stiff......

wat if magma aint flowing but only building up pressure.....would that be seen on the grafics?????

reply to post by Shirakawa


Was that swarm in the caldera? or were they all located in areas around the park?

www.denverpost.com...


as of 3pm yesterday afternoon YS local time total of quakes 644 and 122 of those withing 22 hours so asuming that that total is higher today ...

reply to post by westcoast


I think the stresses involved are clearly explained by this image:
Look at P680 and OFW2.



Basically the area currently affected by the earthquake swarm is is being slowly compressed and twisted over time by ground deformation caused by the active caldera. Stresses accumulate over time and at some point seismic energy is released.

There is no real movement of fluids (magma) like water in conduits, it's a very slow build-up of rock made plastic (for a small-scale analogy, probably like pitch) by heat and extreme pressure.

reply to post by sickofitall2012


Not exactly IN the caldera, but very close.
They all occurred within the park area.


[edit on 2010-1-21 by Shirakawa]