Russia/Georgia Situation News & Updates

reply to post by Sky watcher


Again this is a theory. It provides no facts or proof of any kind and only loosely ties together different and unconfirmed events. As a theory it is plausible - but in order to be at least somewhat believable facts are needed. Seeing who is presenting this story - it is not difficult to guess that it has a great amount of spin.

Georgia had UAV all over the area in the beginning of August. I am sure U.S. has spy satellites monitoring the area as well. Surely somebody must have some concrete proof of this theory if it's true, and I am sure Georgia would gladly share this proof.


I am open to ideas. Show me visial proof that Russian armor was in S Ossetia on August 7th, or that S Ossetian militia started an artillery barrage against Georgian villages, and I will believe that the this story has some truth in it. Otherwise it remains a theory engineered by the Georgian propaganda machine.

Is the Vice-President trying to create some kind of pernicious 'Russia-Terrorism' meme?

I've come to the conclusion that Cheney is trying to provoke Russia. Why? I really don't know.


Cheney accuses Russia of intimidation, brute force

CERNOBBIO, Italy, Sept 6 (Reuters) - Vice President Dick Cheney, in the sharpest U.S. criticism of Russia since its brief war with Georgia, on Saturday accused Moscow of reverting to old tactics of intimidation and using "brute force."

"This chain of aggressive moves and diplomatic reversals has only intensified the concern that many have about Russia's larger objectives," Cheney said.

"For brutality against a neighbour is simply the latest in a succession of troublesome and unhelpful actions by the Russian government."

Cheney accused Russia, the world's second largest oil producer, of using "energy as a tool of force and manipulation" in Central Asia, the Caucasus and elsewhere by threatening to interrupt the flow of oil or natural gas.

Russia has tried to "intimidate by threats and severe economic pressure" Ukraine, which along with Georgia, is seeking to join NATO, he said.

"At times it appears Russian policy is based upon the desire to impose its will on countries it once dominated, instead of any balanced assessment of security interests," Cheney said in his prepared remarks.

"And it reflects the discredited notion that any country can claim an exclusive zone of authority, to be held together by muscle and threats," he said.

"That is the old thinking," Cheney said. "The old ways are gone, and the Cold War is over."

Russia's leaders should consider whether "bullying others will turn out well for their country's future" and whether Moscow wants to "operate in the modern world as an outsider," he said.

"Russia's leaders cannot have things both ways," Cheney said. "They cannot presume to gather up all the benefits of commerce, consultation, and global prestige, while engaging in brute force, threats, or other forms of intimidation against sovereign countries."

Cheney said Russian arms dealing in the Middle East had endangered the prospects for peace and freedom in the region.

Russia has sold advanced weapons to Syria and Iran, and "some of the Russian weapons sold to Damascus have been channeled to terrorist fighters in Lebanon and Iraq," he said.

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin once stated that he viewed the demise of the Soviet Union as a catastrophe, Cheney said.

In his own opinion, Cheney said, "the demise of the Soviet Union was inevitable, and was the greatest forward step for human liberty in the last 60 years."

(Source: AlertNet)

[edit on 6-9-2008 by chips]

Originally posted by Sky watcher
reply to post by maloy

 

Did you watch the video? You need realplayer to watch it, I forgot to mention that to you all. It explains how the Russians provoked Georgia. Condi even said days later that they knew Russia was going to attack just not when and never thought that Putin would be ruthless enough to do it during the Olympics.

First of all, Russia had peacekeepers in the area since the early 1990s. Georgia tried to retake the area and Russia responded. How is this any new revelation or a surprise to anyone? Condi doesn't need to tell us she "knew" anything, anyone who has two neurons to rub together knew what would happen if Georgia decided to respond in such a manner.

Secondly, even if Russia provoked Georgia, it is Georgia who initiated this war by launching a full-scale attack to retake South Ossetia completely in violation of agreements and on the opening day of the Olympics. Obviously, if the regions you plan to retake have a giant as their protectorate, war is the dumbest way to respond. Georgia responded because it thought the U.S. would be the giant behind its back, but it was wrong. And the U.S. was wrong not to make it explicitly clear, leaving no room for misinterpretation, that it would NOT help Georgia.

Whether Georgia's idiocy played favorably into Russia's position or not, the fact is Georgia's leadership lost their cool and started a suicidal war. And lost, as expected. If you want to pin stupidity on someone, pin it on Georgia.

[edit on 9/6/2008 by The Crow]

[edit on 6-9-2008 by Russian Boy]

[edit on 6-9-2008 by Russian Boy]

Here's a good article on how the war started , when you have finished reading PR agencies propaganda circulations.

The War in Georgia

For the past two weeks I've been trying to collect as much information as possible about the situation in Georgia. I talked to more than a dozen Russian and US military experts, got in touch with my contacts in Tbilisi and North Ossetia, and exchanged information with dozens of journalists in Moscow and here in the States. The goal of spending all this free time - normally reserved for fishing - was to piece together the most complete picture of the events in the Caucasus. My main worry was that someone will beat me to the punch (like the Asia Times or Jane's), rendering all my efforts redundant.

Luckily, no one did.

Background

The first step in understanding what happened in Georgia is, as Russians say, to separate the flies from the meatballs: to make sure you keep all the relevant facts in your brain on a separate shelf from CNN and BBC news reports. So what do we know? We know that Abkhazians and Ossetians are ethnically different from Georgians. We know that relations between these two ethnic minorities and the Georgian majority have been strained for centuries. There have been bloody feuds, ethnic cleansing,
and centuries-old discrimination. At the same time, Abkhazians and Ossetians have been living together with Georgians in relative peace for a very long time.

During the Soviet years, Abkhazia had the status of an autonomous republic and South Ossetia had the status of an autonomous province. For administrative and financial purposes, both regions were considered part of the Georgian Soviet Socialist Republic. However, Abkhazia and South Ossetia both had their local governments. In 1990 Georgia revoked South Ossetia's autonomy and in 1991 Georgian government revoked Abkhazia's autonomy. A brief war broke out between Georgia and its breakaway
regions in 1992. Later same year Georgia accepted a ceasefire to avoid a confrontation with Russia.

Russia deployed peacekeepers in the region and the OSCE set up a monitoring mission. Sounds familiar?

www.aeronautics.ru...
Livejournal


[edit on 6-9-2008 by Gun Totin Gerbil]

Russia Today: Peter Lavelle

Cheney – the wounded neocon

[...]Cheney and his neoconservative worldview on the defensive. This is very dangerous. The neocons tend to get really nasty when playing the game of catch-up. I fully expect a slow but sure drumbeat of “incidents” on the borders and within South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Cheney’s people will do everything they can to discredit and undermine the independence of Georgia’s former breakaway republics. As before, there will be little regard for human life. And keep an eye on Crimea.

All the while, Russia has been watching from the sidelines. It will not remain idle. It did so far too long. If Cheney wants an undeclared war – Russia will surely give him what he wants.

(Source: Russia Today)


Lavelle — who appeared on Sky News a few weeks ago, and gave the organization a thorough going-over — writes some good stuff and is usually bang on the money.

Let's hope he's wrong this time, though.

[edit on 6-9-2008 by chips]

Well, I think this is a significant development:

Sunday, September 7, 2008

Vladimir Putin set to bait US with nuclear aid for Tehran; 'A number of possibilities are being considered, including hitting America there where it hurts most – Iran.'

Russia is considering increasing its assistance to Iran’s nuclear programme in response to America’s calls for Nato expansion eastwards and the presence of US Navy vessels in the Black Sea delivering aid to Georgia.

The Kremlin is discussing sending teams of Russian nuclear experts to Tehran and inviting Iranian nuclear scientists to Moscow for training, according to sources close to the Russian military.

“Everything has changed since the war in Georgia,” said one source. “What seemed impossible before, is more than possible now when our friends become our enemies and our enemies our friends. What are American ships doing off our coast? Do you see Russian warships off the coast of America?"

“Russia will respond. A number of possibilities are being considered, including hitting America there where it hurts most – Iran.”

“After the war in Georgia it’s difficult to imagine relations between Russia and America getting worse,” said a western diplomat. “Russia giving greater nuclear assistance to the Iranians would do the trick – that’s for sure.”

“The mood among the hawks is very bullish indeed,” said one source who did not rule out a resumption of Russian military action in Georgia to take the port of Batumi, where American vessels are delivering aid.

(Source: The Sunday Times Online)


[edit on 6-9-2008 by chips]

[edit on 6-9-2008 by chips]

On the subject of Iran (Russia is a key member of the SCO):

Breaking:

Iran seeks to join Shanghai Cooperation Organization

TEHRAN – President Mahmud Ahmadinejad on Saturday expressed Iran’s interest to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization

“The Islamic Republic is determined to boost cooperation with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and believes this would benefit all regional states,” Ahmadinejad told Chinese President Hu Jintao.

The Chinese leader welcomed Iran’s interest to join the SCO, saying an expert committee will be formed to consider the proposal.

(tehrantimes.com)


Wow.

Yep, that's some significant development... If Iran join the SCO. IMO they won't do it until Ukraine or Georgia is in NATO... it will be a response. Up until now, Russia only RESPONDED to NATO provocations, never started them.

And for the analyst saying that Russia would resume actions in Georgia... I don't think so, unless they are attacked by the Georgians or the US. But if it does happen and americans troops are killed, it will not go well, especially with the nutjobs in the white house.

If it happens, you'll see a draft... no nuclear war yet, but a freaking draft to build up in europe. Then if and where it will stop is everyone's guess.

Cheney: Russian arms reaching Hizbullah

Cheney saying that Russia is basically a sponsored of terrorism... like Afghanistan was in 01. Propaganda propaganda.

[edit on 6-9-2008 by Vitchilo]

I bet Israel is freaking out right about now in the event that Russia helps Iran with its nuclear program. This is getting sort of messy. Before it was Israel and America that was against Iran, but if Russia helps Iran they're going to be pulled into that conflict. Seems that these smaller little disagreements are weaving themselves into something larger, seems strange that this is the progression, could be like a "perfect storm".

reply to post by Vitchilo


Totally — I knew it. I knew it as soon as I read this from today:

Russia has sold advanced weapons to Syria and Iran, and "some of the Russian weapons sold to Damascus have been channeled to terrorist fighters in Lebanon and Iraq," he [Cheney] said.

It's a rather pathetic attempt to re-create the 2002/2003 'Iraq-9/11-Al-Qaeda-Terrorism' meme.

Just watch:

(3-minute video)




I expect more of this arrant nonsense (related to Russia) in the coming weeks.

I read recently that when the USA strikes Iran that it is going to use a new unmanned aircraft. That reminded me of another thing I read about a new unmanned jetfighter that could fly at incredible speed and be operated by pilots on the ground. In any case the war that is coming between Russia/Iran and America/Israel is going to be (to coin a phrase from Obama) a real "game changer". For some insight of what that war might look like check out these links. You might want to notice how the USA and Israel are working on these new weapon systems together.


From outside sources:

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Some interesting details on Cheney's recent tour through Eastern Europe and the goals he planed to accomplis. This analysis holds many clues as to what is about to take place in the Caspian Geopolitical region - compliments to the U.S. foreign policy:



I call this The Caspian Shuffle.


en.rian.ru...

Cheney's trip to the Caucasus and Ukraine is possibly the last attempt by the Bush Administration to set up a Black Sea-Caucasian cordon on Russia's southern border as a gift to the next administration.

A nice gift that would be - ruined relations with Russia and a setting for a new Cold War. I can only imagine how much McCain would further this conflict if he is elected.

In 1997, Cheney teamed up with Donald Rumsfeld, William Kristol and others to establish the Project for the New American Century, a neoconservative U.S. think tank whose self-stated goal is to "promote American global leadership." The project's ideas have been implanted in all the foreign policy programs of the Bush Administration.

Anyone still think that the problem to everything that has been happening is not the U.S. foreign policy? The Bush administration's foreign policy has already done major damage to the world. It looks like Bush is quickly trying to tidy up unfinished business before he leaves office.

Cheney orchestrated the U.S. invasion of Panama, Operation Desert Storm in the Middle East, the anti-Iraqi policy and, some say, the molding of Mikheil Saakashvili, described as the United States' main ally in the Caucasus.

Saaka is U.S. creation, and U.S. should be responsible for his actions to some degree. Unfortunately that will never happen. I wouldn't be surprised if there is much more to Saaka's story than we know. It is very possible that he was trained by the U.S., and is much closer to the Bush administration than we think.

In Tbilisi, he will offer "friend Michael" U.S. support and rearmament of the Georgian army with U.S.-made weapons.

No what could Georgia possibly do with new weapons? Thanks to U.S. there will now be a lengthy military stand-off between Russia and Georgia. And in order to secure their investment, the U.S. will likely see to it that Saakashvili remains in power for a very long time or is succeeded by a puppet of equal loyalty.

In Kiev, he will assure President Viktor Yushchenko that Ukraine will definitely enter NATO, which is not quite true, of course, but will help Cheney, who has always seen military ties as the main instrument of U.S. foreign policy, to promote military cooperation with Ukraine.

Unfortunately for Mr. Cheney, Yuschenko is no longer in control in Ukraine. The Parliament established a new alliance, and now opposes him on every move - especially moves meant to establish relations with NATO. I wonder what the U.S. has in plans for Ukraine to fortify their investment there. I am sure we will see this plan unrevel in the coming months.



Now more about the Nabucco pipeline:

His task in Baku will be more difficult. He must cajole President Ilkham Aliyev into approving the Nabucco gas pipeline, which Baku, along with much of Europe, is coming to view with growing mistrust.

The nearly 2,000-mile pipeline, which the United States has been advocating, would connect Azerbaijan with Central Europe. It will run across Georgia (bypassing Armenia and Russia) towards Erzurum in Turkey and on to Austria's Baumgarten via Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary.

Just imagine the further instability this project will cause in the Caucasus and the Caspian region. This energy charade by the U.S. is endagering an entire geopolitical region, and throwing it off balance. I fear that what we have seen in Georgia is only a start.

Nabucco has already had its share of problems. The geopolitical rationale for the project - to bypass Russia - has increased spending from $3 billion to $4.9 billion, and the cost now stands at $7.9 billion. Construction should begin in 2010 and the pipeline is to come on stream in 2013.

To turn a profit, the pipeline should annually pump 30 billion cubic meters (1.06 trillion cu f) of gas. Azerbaijan can supply only 8 billion, and that only after it commissions the second phase of the Shah Deniz deposit in the Caspian Sea.

So, there is not enough gas for the pipe, which will make its gas very expensive indeed.

Hmm, I wonder what they plan to do with all that extra capacity. Oh look - Iran is nearby. And so is Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. I think we are looking at a new page in America's foreign (*cough energy*) policy. I have been predicting that the Caspian geopolitical region would be the "new Middle East" for years now. It looks like it is all coming true.

Anyone still think that all of what we recently saw happening in the Caucasus was not engineered by the U.S. Anyone still think that Russia is the problem here. U.S. is getting more and more aggressive - and the result will be very bloody.

The Caucasian conflict has scared the European gas and energy block, which thinks in cubic meters or feet. The European and Azerbaijani energy and gas processing companies are alarmed at the prospect of the pipe being controlled by such an unbalanced politician as Saakashvili.

The State Oil Company of Azerbaijan Republic (SOCAR) has started sending oil to Europe bypassing Georgia. This year, it will pump between 300,000 tons (2.2 million bbl) and 400,000 tons (2.9 million bbl) of crude, initially delivered along the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, through the Baku-Novorossiisk pipe. It made the decision on August 7, when Georgia started bombing South Ossetia's capital, Tskhinvali.

Very interesting - this pipeline business is already creating much distrust between the partners involved. I think Azerbaijan is the key country to watch right now. Azerbaijan will either make or break the entire game for U.S.. Russia may view it as a place to make a stand, and we will see both U.S. and Russia rushing to gain favors with Alieyev to make him come over to their side. Remember this name - Alieyev - you will start hearing it more and more as the U.S. tried to expand its controlling influence over to Azerbaijan.

Azerbaijan is also negotiating the transit of additional gas to Europe via Russia.

"Baku's new interest [in Russia] may stem from a desire to protect the relationship with Moscow, or a sense that Nabucco is less likely than ever to materialize," writes the Eurasia Group, British energy consultants who offer analysis on developments in Russia and the CIS, Central Asia and the Caspian.

As I predicted, Alieyev is cautious of the U.S. He saw what the U.S. is capable of (coups such as in Georgia and Ukraine), and he sees himself as being next. So now he will attempt to distance himself from the U.S., but do it very cautiously so as not to provoke a U.S.-backed coup. It is possible that he will look to Russia for support.

U.S. is cooking something sinister in Azerbaijan, and this has many people concerned, especially in Russia.

Europeans have started talking about the need to involve Russia in the Nabucco project to make it viable. Russia alone can provide enough gas to make the pipeline profitable by rerouting its gas from Blue Stream.

Interestingly, Russian energy giant Gazprom holds a 50% stake in Austria's Baumgarten, the terminal for the Nabucco pipeline.

"This goes against the whole concept of Nabucco, that it would not be either Russian or Russian-controlled gas," says Zeyno Baran, an energy and Central Asian expert at the conservative Hudson Institute in Washington and the wife of Matthew Bryza, U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs.

This Nabucco pipeline is looking more and more like a ridiculously absurd and reckless idea. Russia found a way to sneak in some influence in the project, but U.S. is still unrelentlessly pursuing it. Meanwhile the parties involved are viewing at as being a dangerous project, that places them in a very unstable situation. Should they go ahead with it - the U.S. will gain a lot more political influence in the region. Should they choose to abandon it - the U.S. investment falls through, and U.S. might seek ways to "reverse" the damage.





I just want to point out that what we saw happen in Georgia is just a tip of the iceberg. The U.S. is playing with fire, and the whole region could go down in flames. This is the Middle East 2.0 in the making - and you know what that means: more wars, more tyrannical regimes, more Islamic extremism. Because of its thirst for energy and political influence, U.S. is endangering an entire region, which included many countries. U.S. and its puppets are also getting more and more reckless here.

I have said from the beginning - that U.S. simply must not get involved in the Caucasus or in the Caspian geopolitical region. There is simply no way that this can end-up well. Georgia War may seem like nothing compared to potential conflicts brewing in the area. And in the end - you know that all the blame will be thrown on Russia by way of cunning PR and media strategu employed by the West.

Europe is already starting to smell something fishy about what the U.S. is doing in Georgia and the Caspian region - that is why Europe stopped blaming Russia for every single thing that is happening. Russia is gravely concerned with what is taking place as well.

THE U.S. MUST CHANGE IT'S FOREIGN POLICY IF WE ARE EVER TO SEE PEACE AND STABILITY IN THIS AREA OF THE WORLD. Or else the concerned parties, including Russia, Iran and China will have to find a way to "deal" with it.

Originally posted by chips
I've come to the conclusion that Cheney is trying to provoke Russia. Why? I really don't know.

Yes - it looks like the idiot has a very well planned out agenda. He hopes that by antagonizing and demonizing Russia, he can unite all of Russia's neighbors against it. God knows what this bastard has planned for the future - but these trips appear to be very crucial in the execution of America's strategy in the region. Russia is right to be very concerned about Cheney, and the countries that host his visit should be as well (at least the people there if not the puppet politicians).

One thing I'm sure of. There is going to be war. Why do I believe this? Because before Bush starts a war Cheney always goes for a visit and a tour. In any case Russia is the one playing with fire. And they will get burned a lot more than the USA will.

reply to post by maloy


That was a brilliant post, Maloy.

I was just thinking about what Peter Lavelle said in regard to subversive U.S. 'activity' in and around South Ossetia and Abkhazia; Is there a possibility that the U.S. might do something in order to get the Ukrainians onside? (I'm thinking along the lines of what led up to the Poland missile deal).

Originally posted by Fromabove
In any case Russia is the one playing with fire.

What is Russia playing with exactly? U.S. is the one pretending to run the show, and by now it should be obvious that U.S. is simply trying to provoke Russia. U.S. is the new player in the Caucasus and the Caspian region - while Russia has always been there. U.S. is the destabilziing factor here. U.S. is playing with fire - much like it has been in Middle East (and look what resulted of that).

You wanna know who is playing with fire? The same entite that already got burned - more than once - but is still only too willingly to dive back in. Remember 9/11? What do you think caused that? Look at what is happening in Iraq and Afganistan. Look at the stand-off with Iran. The U.S. has its claw everywhere these days. U.S. is not only playing with fire - it is starting many of the fires.

Originally posted by Fromabove
And they will get burned a lot more than the USA will.

Ahhh - how so may I ask? Will U.S. slap Russia on the hand? Russia has had plenty of experiences in the Caucasus - it knows the game there. The U.S. does not. U.S. almost got burned already - their Georgian investment (read Saakashvili and his merry band of thugs) almost fell through, when Russia was a step away from casting the dimwitted moron into the bottom of the Black Sea.

U.S. will get burned some more in the future if it keep this shuffle up no doubt. How would you like Iran and Syria to suddenly become off limit - courtesy of Russia supplying newest airdefenses and nuclear technology there?

And what can U.S. do to Russia that it haven't done already?

Originally posted by chips
Is there a possibility that the U.S. might do something in order to get the Ukrainians onside?

Well right now U.S. only has one person in Ukraine towing its line - Yuschenko. The Parliament alliance is now stronger than him in terms of decision making and executive power. But as a President he still has a few tricks up his sleeve, and with a help of U.S. advisors he might find a way to turn the odds in his favor.


I believe that U.S. will now advise Yuschenko to dismiss the Parliament and call for reelection. The justification for that (need to get the Supreme Courts' approval) will be that the Parliament tried to organize a coup against him through the realliance. Once he dismisses the parliament, the U.S.-funded PR campaign will swing into full action to regain people's support for Yuschenko and to attract new political allies to his side. Expect this PR campaign to make up some story of Russia trying to topple Yuschenko while he bravely defends democracy or some similar crap. This is about the only startegy left for U.S. and their unpopular lapdog that calls himself "Ukrainian President".


The problem is - that the Ukrainian Parliament knows of this strategy all too well. It is very likely that they will resist - and will refuse to be dismissed. They will fund their own PR campaign. They may even try to topple Yuschenko the same way he toppled Yanukovich during the Orange Revolution - they will rouse up the people to stage mass protests in Kiev, and threat with outright rebellion unless he steps down.

I think that this threat is what will ultimately keep Yuschenko from dismissing Congress. He will have to accept the fact that his political career is finished, and his role during the remained of his term will be unimportant as Parliament takes full controlling power over the country.

reply to post by maloy


Russia is illegally occupying a sovereign nation. It will be punished. It won't be a slap on the hand. It will be a fist to the head. We are going to cut them off, drain their economy, and isolate them from the free world. Without our money and European money... they'll fold like a house of cards.