Russia/Georgia Situation News & Updates

reply to post by maloy


Heh, as ever, Maloy, a bloody good post.

What a wonderful foreign policy this has been, eh.

I am certain Georgia War was not the last proxy war we have seen.

Who could be next to square off in this grand 'roll the dice' game of Cheney geopolitics, then? Oh, joy.

Originally posted by chips
Who could be next to square off in this grand 'roll the dice' game of Cheney geopolitics, then? Oh, joy.

It's a fair toss between Ukraine and Azerbaijan. My bet is Azerbaijan. U.S. has to have priorities, and as far as I can tell oil/gas resources are a bigger priority that NATOs continued expansion; and also Yuschenko got outplayed in Ukraine, and is practically paralyzed at this point.

The "decider" here is actually not Russia or the U.S. It's the Azerbaijani dictator Aliyev. Both sides now want to be his friend, and both friends come with major benefits (money, political suppory, economic support, military support, kinky favors). Alieyev is strong and has friends in Russia's FSB (he is a past KGB power figure) - the U.S. won't be able to overturn his regime as easily as in Ukraine or Georgia.

Don't bet on any conflict just yet. Possibly not for years to come (Nabucco project is scheduled to start in only 2010). We will see a highly disguised and prolonged politcal battle for influence there between Russia and U.S.

Cheers. Yes, it is all moving rather quickly, though, I have to say.

About the breaking S-300 news: could it be linked to this report from earlier today?

Iran to hold anti-aircraft war games

TEHRAN, Iran: Iran's official news agency says that the country will launch on Monday a three-day anti-aircraft exercise.

The IRNA report says the maneuver is aimed at improving defensive capabilities and will involve new weapons and tactics.

Sunday's announcement comes amid heightened tension in Iran following Israel's major military exercises involving war planes over the eastern Mediterranean in June. The exercise was described in the U.S. press as a possible rehearsal for a strike on Iran's nuclear facilities.

The West accuses Iran of trying to create a nuclear weapons program — a claim Iran denies, maintaining its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes.

(International Herald Tribune)

reply to post by chips


Well I highly doubt that this exercise has much to do with it, since this sale will largely need a long time for processing and finalizing negotiations. If the source I posted is true, then maybe the S-300 systems would be shipped in several weeks or a few months. And then they will take some time to activate.



Edit:

Here is more, if you choose to trust the source:

uskowioniran.blogspot.com...


Iran's Install of S-300 Missile Defense System

An Israeli think tank claimed that Iran will install an advanced air defense system the country bought from Russia next year. The report said the S-300PMU-2 air defense system will be deployed in 2009 and it will be operational by the middle of the next year.

The report by the Institute for Contemporary Affairs said the S-300 would complement other Russian air defense systems in Iran, particularly the TOR-M1.

...

"The deployment of the anti-aircraft shield next spring, if it occurs, effectively limits the window in which Israel or the United States could conduct an effective aerial campaign aimed at destroying, delaying or crippling the Iranian nuclear program," the report added.

[edit on 7-9-2008 by maloy]

reply to post by maloy


Yes, I think I mentally linked the two together when I saw that S-300 news and noticed the report that Monday's Iranian 'war games' will feature new weaponry.

I do wonder if this Russian movement into the Iran situation might 'speed up' a U.S.-backed attack by Israel — simply because it could become a race against time for the Israelis/U.S. to deal with the Islamic Republic before it receives overt Russian protection from such an event.

If you have time, I would suggest reading this very interesting recent report on the U.S. ABM system proposed for Eastern Europe. It really puts everything into perspective, and raises many crucial questions. The report questions the effectiveness of the system, and the reason for its placement.


I don't have the time now, I am considering making a new thread on this.


The Proposed US Missile Defense in Europe: Technological Issues Relevant to Policy

russianforces.org...



(by the way how do I post pictures within the post? do I need to host them)

[edit on 7-9-2008 by maloy]

reply to post by maloy


Thanks, yes, I'll read that.

And yeah, you have to host the image (I just copy it to MS Paint, save it, host it with tinypic.com, and then paste the URL of the picture into the bar that comes up when you click on that coloured paint pallet/PC image button on the 'Post Reply' screen.

Doubt we will be seeing Russia withdraw anytime soon :

Saakashvili Vows to Reclaim 2 Provinces
Sept 08 2008

Mikhail Saakashvili, President of Georgia, vowed to take back the two provinces taken from Georgia by Russia, on Sunday. Saakashvili said he would reclaim Abkhazia and South Ossetia with the help “of the rest of the world” minus Russia.

The bold statements come at a time when the European Union is busy trying to convince Russia to withdraw to prewar positions.

Moscow promises to withdraw weeks ago already, but has failed to do so nonetheless. Georgia and the West are still waiting for Russian forces to leave Georgian territory; and that weeks after the war ended.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy will go to Moscow on Monday, as the leader of an EU delegation, to convince the Russians to comply with the cease-fire terms they agreed to. This terms included a Russian withdrawal from Georgia.

The Russians, however, say that the forces left behind in South Ossetia are ‘peacekeepers’ meant to protect the civilian population - many of whom with Russian passports thanks to a year-long effort by the Russians to Russianilize the Georgian province - against Georgian violence.

“Our territorial integrity will be restored, I am more convinced of this than ever,” Saakashvili said in a televised appearance. “This will not be an easy process, but now this is a process between an irate Russia and the rest of the world.”

“Our goal is the return of our territory and the peaceful unification of Georgia,” he said.

In order to do so, Saakashvili needs the active support of the West. Although the United States has supported him in recent weeks, Europe has failed to put any real pressure on Moscow, however. As such, it seems likely that it will be difficult for the Georgian president to do what he promised earlier today.

poligazette.com...

reply to post by Gun Totin Gerbil


Yeah, that's coming through on the wires.

1. What the fack is he talking about?
2. He can't be serious, surely?

He seems to be more a liability to the west than an asset . You can imagine Sarcozy, Merkel and co with their head in their hands after this well-timed outburst . No wonder Russia left him there heh .

Heh, yeah, I bet.

I think Sarko may be wasting his time tomorrow, though.

Mr. Medvedev said the West was continuing to put political pressure on Russia, but “nothing will come of it.”
(hindu.com)

Saaka sounds like he's been getting some 'advice' from Cheney recently. This smacks of 'up yours, Russia' Cheney-inspired provocation to me.

There's no doubt in my mind now: The Bush administration (and Saakashvili) is trying to provoke Russia into some sort of action. I just can't figure out why.

This is what Moscow's Mayor said earlier today:

Moscow's mayor Yury Luzhkov entered the fray Sunday, saying the "crushing" defence that Russia mounted against Nazi Germany during World War II should serve as a warning to Washington.

"Let that be a stern and appropriate reminder to those who surround Russia with their missiles and bases," Luzhkov said.

(AFP)

Heated rhetoric there.

Originally posted by Gun Totin Gerbil

Saakashvili Vows to Reclaim 2 Provinces
Sept 08 2008

Mikhail Saakashvili, President of Georgia, vowed to take back the two provinces taken from Georgia by Russia, on Sunday. Saakashvili said he would reclaim Abkhazia and South Ossetia with the help “of the rest of the world” minus Russia.

This just gets better and better. Is anyone still not convinced that Saakashvili is as psychotic as they get? This deranged lunatic has either utterly lost his mind, or alternatively he is relying on some sort of plan Cheney laid down during his recent visit. My guess is the later.

I think the timing is the most crucial part here - this was announced just as soon as Cheney left. Saakashvili now appears to be more reenergized than ever, and we are likely seeing a new U.S. strategy unravel here. It is just not possible that Saakashvili is doing this without the backing of the U.S.

And WTF does the idiot mean by the "rest of the world"? No one but the U.S. will stand behind him if he wanders off on another adventurous campaign against Russia. Saakashvili has proved to be more of a clown than we all thought. He truly outranks the world leaders as the utmost fanatical nutcase.

The bold statements come at a time when the European Union is busy trying to convince Russia to withdraw to prewar positions.

Oh yeah - that'll convince Russia to leave. How can anyone trust him anymore? And how can anyone say that Russia isn't justified in standing firm within its new buffer zone? There is simpy no way the safety of Ossetia, Abkhaz, and even Russian peacekeepers is guaranteed.

And now that the U.S. is actively rearming Saakashvili - he could be ready for another attack within a few months. U.S. is seriously getting itself deeper and deeper into the crap. Remember how the Palestinian leaders converted mentally-handicapped kids to go blow themselves up at Israeli checkpoints? U.S. is pretty much doing the same on a large scale - it is arming and advising a lunatic leader to send his army to attack a much stronger enemy who they can't possibly defeat.

U.S. is actively endangering the lives of countless Georgians and Ossetians. This isn't some damn game anymore - millions of lives are involved. Whatever Cheney told Saakashvili - I can only guess. But it looks like U.S. decided to take this to the next level.

In order to do so, Saakashvili needs the active support of the West.

Active support of U.S. is enough. It got him this far, and I can only imagine where it's bound to take him. The question is what will happen if Saakashvili losed another military campaign, which is guaranteed to happen if he undertakes one against Russia? How will U.S. bail him out this time? More military assets in the Black Sea? This is ridiculous.

Although the United States has supported him in recent weeks, Europe has failed to put any real pressure on Moscow, however.

Why would Europe do this? Europe is already smelling something fishy with what the U.S. and their Georgian puppet is doing. I am guessing Europe will stay neutral this time around.

As such, it seems likely that it will be difficult for the Georgian president to do what he promised earlier today.

Then why the hell did he promise that? What could he possibly gain from making such a dangerous statement, if he has no intent to back it up with action? And even if he has plans for actual military actions, why announce it to the whole world? Something just doesn't add up with the psycho.


And what of the timing? This is clearly engineered by the U.S. But the Bush administration is on the way out, with no certainty if its foreign policies are bound to continue with the current course. So does that mean that we will see the conflict in Georgia flare up again before Bush leaves office? I seriously hope not.





My guess as to the reasoning behind Sakaashvili statements:

He doesn't really plan for any actual military action in S Ossetia or Abkhazia. His statement is meant to anger Russia, so that Russian troops will remain within Georgia for security. This will give Saakashvili more bargaining power with U.S. and NATO - as in "oh look Russia is occupying out peacefull little democracy - please help us by arming us to the teeth and rushing ahead with NATO membership". Saakashvili is adopting a militaristic attitude - and it looks like he is planning to benefit from Russia's "threating" stance in the Georgian buffer zone.

By having Russia remain in Georgia, U.S. can continue to demonize Russia and will have an excuse for arming Georgia.

This is clearly engineered by the U.S. But the Bush administration is on the way out, with no certainty if its foreign policies are bound to continue with the current course. So does that mean that we will see the conflict in Georgia flare up again before Bush leaves office?

That would be my guess — because desperate times call for desperate measures, and this Bush administration seem to be getting increasingly desperate. Cheney visits Tbilisi and now Saakashvili is proclaiming that Georgia will take back the two provinces and restore its territorial integrity? That figures.

Cheney Fails to Garner Azeri Support on Nabucco Pipeline

U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney has failed to win Azerbaijan's support for the construction of a new gas pipeline from the Caspian that would bypass Russia.

Azeri President Ilham Aliyev indicated to Cheney during talks in Baku on Wednesday that he did not want to anger Russia in the wake of its invasion of neighboring Georgia, Kommersant reported, citing an official in Aliyev's administration. Cheney was so disappointed that he did not attend an official dinner in his honor, the report said.

(The Moscow Times)


Desperate times indeed.

[edit on 7-9-2008 by chips]

Originally posted by maloy


"And now that the U.S. is actively rearming Saakashvili "

Huh? There is absolutely no proof of this! , none! , besides It would be impossible to tow howitzer's or anything of real threat for the Georgian army with the RUSSIAN occupying forces at the port, in Georgia, i understand your position in this conflict, but c mon!

"U.S. is actively endangering the lives of countless Georgians and Ossetians"

How? By supplying Georgians with humanitarian aid, USA is endangering people!?

'





And what of the timing? This is clearly engineered by the U.S.

Really now

"oh look Russia is occupying out peaceful little democracy

You got it... bang on! This is what this is all about,I'm afraid.
Saakashvili(not strong), needs to SOUND strong, as Russia continues to occupy Georgian territory,if he wants to remain the president of Georgia---this is all it means to me.

[edit on 7-9-2008 by all2human]

Originally posted by all2human
Huh? There is absolutely no proof of this! , none!

Several Russian news sources (TV news mostly, so I can't source it here) are stating that Cheney promised to rearm Georgia in his recent visit. That was the main goal of the visit - to work out a new military strategy.

Plus Russians are questioning what is in those "humanitarian" shipments. These news are all over the place.

I am not saying U.S. is rearming the psycho yet, but no one is doubting that it will, soon.

Originally posted by all2human
besides It would be impossible to tow howitzer's or anything of real threat for the Georgian army with the RUSSIAN occupying forces at the port in Georgia, i understand your position in this conflict, but c mon!

Georgians have more that one port you know. Most of the U.S. "aid" is coming in through Batumi, and Russians are nowhere near it.

Originally posted by all2human
How? By supplying Georgians with humanitarian aid, USA is endangering people!?

'

No, by supporting Saakashvili's militarist tactics. It is no longer a secret that U.S. advisors helped Saakashvili plan this war, despite it being a suicide mission. Thus U.S. already endangered many people (Georgians and Ossetians) - by helping to engineer this war.

Originally posted by all2human
You got it... bang on!
This is what this is all about,I'm afraid.

If all that Saakashvili is concerned with is saving his little "democracy", then why the hell did he untertake the suicide mission in S. Ossetia? I think this is bigger than Georgia's sovereignty. Saakashvili strings are well visible by now - this was made clear by Cheney's visit.

Originally posted by all2human
Saakashvili(not strong), needs to SOUND strong

And you think this makes him sound strong? This makes him sound like a clown. Russia and virtually everyone else knows by now that Saakashvili is weak, very weak. Who is he pretending to be strong for? I don't think the Georgian people buy into his shenanigans anymore - everyone is getting tired of this nonesense.

Originally posted by all2human
as Russia continues to occupy Georgian territory

And after these threats by Saakashvili how do you expect them to leave? He practically promised to attack S Ossetia and Abkhazia when Russians leave. He is just openly taunting Russia now. I am pretty certain that if he wanted Russia to leave, this is not the right strategy to follow.

Originally posted by all2human
if he wants to remain the president of Georgia

You mean dictator. America's support guarantees that he will stay in power for a long time to come (unless he launches more attacks). His leadership is not in any threat right now. If you noticed Russia long retreated from most of the front.

Originally posted by all2human
Russia needs to leave Georgian territitory.

And then what? Saakashvili can launch a new artillery barrage on S Ossetia? That's what he promised to do pretty much - even if thats not what he plans to do. But a promise like that should be treated with all seriousness by the international community. The time when that idiot could fool anyone is long gone. U.S. is spoon feeding Saakashvili now, and everyone else is aware of it.


[edit on 7-9-2008 by maloy]

reply to post by maloy


Ah, yes, about this U.S. 'aid,' Maloy: Isn't it just a bit suspicious?


The arrival of the USS Mount Whitney in Poti on the 5th:

U.S. officials in Washington said Russia would be allowed to inspect the Mount Whitney's cargo.

(cbsnews.com)


..A few hours later:

Lt. Col. John Dorrian, a spokesman for the US European Command, said Friday that Russian peacekeepers would not be allowed to examine the cargo as the port of Poti is on sovereign Georgian territory.

(russiancourier.com)


Quite the U-turn there.

reply to post by chips


I am sure U.S. just doesn't want Russians to see how much toilet paper and baby food they are bringing into Georgia.

From what I hear Batumi port (where most of the "aid" is coming in) is under very tight security. I doubt that U.S. is bringing in any heavy equipment just yet, but I am sure there is a little more than toilet paper and food in those crates. And who knows what U.S. is bringing in through air shipments. There is also a border with Turkey.

If anyone has any doubts that U.S. intends to create a fortress out of Georgia, then all I have to say is wait and see. I posted a list in another threat of all the military equipment bought by Georgia in the last 4 years. Let's just say it is somewhat more than a "moderate" amount. There is no reason to believe that Georgia doesn't intend to continue this armament.

reply to post by maloy


It will be interesting to see a Georgia, armed to the teeth,under the threat of Russia, become a stable member of NATO,with a Saakasvili government,it isn't going to happen


[edit on 7-9-2008 by all2human]

reply to post by all2human


Here is the detailed information on the military equipment that Georgia purchased in the 4 years prior to this war. Take note - that Georgia could afford most of this only thanks to U.S. monetary aid that Saakashvili received. Also take note - that Georgia is a small country, that already had a sizeable military prior to these purchases.

Disclosures about arms shipments to Georgia over 2004-2008: 10 UH-1-H helicopters and 230 wheeled vehicles (including 15 Hummers delivered by AM General, LLC - a firm whose financials I know as intimately as is possible...) from the U.S., with 15 UH-60 Blackhawks on tap; 7 152mm self-propelled guns, 16 ZSU-23 AAA guns, and 300 RPG-7s, 500 "Igla" MANPADS (man-portable air defense systems) and 150 "Kornet" and "Konkurs" ATGMs, 4 SU-25 attack aircraft, two light troop ships, 10 thousand crates of AK-47 assault rifles and RPG 22s plus ammunition, and 650 tons of ammunition from Bulgaria; 66 APCs, 1186 AMD-65 assault rifles, 44 PKM machine-guns, 600 82mm mortar rounds and an unspecified amount of 7.62mm ammunition from Hungary; 1 missile boat and 2 patrol ships plus 60 mortars from Greece; 14 thousand AK assault rifles from Lithuania; 60 RN-94 APCs, 2 UH-1 helicopters, one patrol ship, 2,500 MP5A1(k) SMGs, 1,500 G3 A3 assault rifles, 4,000 122mm rockets and 20,000 155mm artillery shells, plus a large amount of 7.62mm ammunition and hand grenades from Turkey; one multiple rocket launcher with 4 Mirage fighter aircraft, 2 missile boats and upwards of 60-65 "Mistrale" and "Mistrale-2" MANPADS from France; 120 T-54 or T-55 and 55 T-72 tanks, plus 24 "Dana" 152mm self-propelled artillery vehicles, 25 M-75 120mm mortars, 200 "Strela" MANPADs and more than 40 tons of ammunition of all types from the Czech Republic; 8 "Hermes-450" and "Skylark" unmanned recon aircraft from Israel; 45 120mm and 25 82mm mortars plus 500 262mm rockets from Bosnia & Herzegovina; 20 million 7.62mm bullets, plus 1,000 HEAT and 1,690 APFSDS tank shells and other ammunition from Serbia; 31 T-72s, 20 BTR-80s, 40 BMP-2s, 12 152mm "Akatsia" self-propelled artillery vehicles, 9 Mi-24, 2 Mi-8MT and 2 Mi-4 helicopters, 40 tons of ammunition, multiple other specialist vehicles and at least three "Buk"-M1-2 medium-range mobile SAM systems (basically a next-generation version of the SA-11) from the Ukraine.

I'm not including hundreds of radios, a SIM-3C-10 computer platoon training simulator from Estonia, tons of spare parts, assorted odds and ends like engineering equipment, and, of course, training. The U.S. alone still had 95 advisors and 130 "civilian contractors" in Georgia when things broke out.

Source:

militaryphotos.net...



I'd say that is quite a few toys. Georgia didn't need NATO to purchase all of this. All Georgia needed was U.S. funding and support. Also note how most of the sellers of this equipment are NATO members in Eastern Europe, and very close new allies of the U.S.


You still think Georgia isn't going to be able to built up its military in the near future?


And surely you are aware of the approximately $1 billion the U.S. approved to give Saakashvili. What is he going to spend it on? Baby food? Healthcare? Pension fund? $1 billion buys quite lot of ex-Soviet military equipment (and there is never is shortage of that on sale).

[edit on 7-9-2008 by maloy]