Russia/Georgia Situation News & Updates

reply to post by Fromabove


But that's just not going to happen, is it?

Not only is the U.S. economy on its knees, but Russia holds all of the energy cards in Europe, too.

Either way, it's not going to end well at all — not unless current foreign policy is reversed (and there's a fat chance of that).

Originally posted by chips
reply to post by Fromabove

 

But that's just not going to happen, is it?

Not only is the U.S. economy on its knees, but Russia holds all of the energy cards in Europe, too.

Either way, it's not going to end well at all — not unless current foreign policy is reversed (and there's a fat chance of that).

Yes, it will happen because those are the first steps before a military confrontation. Russia is like a blooming flower. It looks real good until you don't give it water, then it just dries up. But war is unavoidable. Nations are becoming more agressive every day and something is going to snap.

reply to post by Fromabove


Yeah, I wasn't saying there won't be some kind of military confrontation; I was just making the point that it's highly unlikely that Europe will cut itself off from Russia — when Russia is the key energy supplier in the region.

I really don't fancy freezing my backside off this winter.

Originally posted by Fromabove
reply to post by maloy

 

Russia is illegally occupying a sovereign nation. It will be punished. It won't be a slap on the hand. It will be a fist to the head. We are going to cut them off, drain their economy, and isolate them from the free world. Without our money and European money... they'll fold like a house of cards.

The U.S. is also occupying a sovereign country, but it's okay because the U.S. was invited in to liberate the people. Right.

And let's get realistic: how do you plan to drain Russia? The U.S. and Russia have very little trade, and so on that front the U.S. has nothing on Russia. As far as energy is concerned, Europe is not going to lift a finger. Russia is the source of something like 40% of Europe's energy; Europe cannot and will not do a thing.

To be sure, if Europe stops buying Russian oil and gas, Russian profits will spiral, but there is no other country that can provide as much natural gas as Russia can, so no other country can act as a substitute. And as for oil, while not all of it comes from Russia, just about every pipeline travels through Russia.

Originally posted by Fromabove
Russia is illegally occupying a sovereign nation.

Oh please. Russia peacekeepers have been in S Ossetia and Abkhazia since the 90's - fully sanctioned. Legally speaking - Russia's actions in S Ossetia and Georgia are an extension of their peacekeeping obligations - and a response to Georgian aggression against civilians under the sanctioned protection of the peacekeepers.

So if you want to speak of "illegality" - support you claim based on international law and UN resolutions.

And who is to judge Russia on whether it's actions are "legal" or not? The U.S. I presume? The very same U.S. that still hasn't found weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, despite launching a war against a country and occupying it without a legal precedent of any kind?

Originally posted by Fromabove
It will be punished.

And so it must be - because you said so. Now who will punish it exactly? And more importantly how? And finally - does the punisher expect to come out of this without any consequences for itself?

"Punish" is a scary word if you use it against a kid who is about to be grounded. When word "punish" is used in a context of global politics against countries like Russia - it is more for comedic relief than anything else. I await with great interest the day when U.S. will spank Russia for being naughty. Untill then I will view the threats of "punishment" as an equivalent of monkeys throwing feces at each other - terribly exciting but hardly a matter of concern.

Originally posted by Fromabove
It won't be a slap on the hand.

It'll likely include some spanking then. We know who will be spanked, but who will do the spanking? Bush? Cheney? I hope it's Condoleezza Rice.

I feel like I am in kindergaden, with all this punishment talk.

Originally posted by Fromabove
It will be a fist to the head.

Hell yeah - now that's the cowboy spirit. We'll have us a nice showdown at noon, with mighty US laying the smackdown on the evil bastards. I hope Chuck Norris will star in this one - it won't really work without him.

Originally posted by Fromabove
We are going to cut them off, drain their economy, and isolate them from the free world.

Good luck with that. Don't bother with the specifics pointing out how you plan to do this. And what exactly does this "free world" include? Are you sure the "free world" will want to be cut off from Russia? Are you sure Russia even wants any contact with "free world"? Are you sure "free world" is anything more than a figment of one's imagination?

Originally posted by Fromabove
Without our money and European money... they'll fold like a house of cards.

Yes - because this is 1800's and U.S. and Europe run the world with everyone else on the leash. U.S. and Europe own all of the money - and give it out to the rest of the globe whenever they feel like it. Someone misbehaving? They get no allowance for a month.

reply to post by The Crow


No, the USA is not illegally occupying any nation. Iraq violated the terms for cease fire (15 UN resolutions) so we went in. Afghanistan harbored a wanted confessed terrorist responsible for death and destruction on American soil. So we went in.

reply to post by Fromabove


Well... In the case of Europe at least, the card house folding is more likely to happen to them without the supply of Russian oil and gas.

Russia's property market is currently booming - a 20% rise in property prices in Moscow alone on this time last year, while other property markets around the world, particularly the US and UK, are dropping like an anvil.

Bleeding Russia's economy would mean bleeding Western economies while they are teetering on recession.

reply to post by maloy


We'll drain them dry like we did before when they fell to pieces last time. But this time we'll make sure they stay down. But if there is war. Russia will suffer more then the USA.

[edit on 7-9-2008 by Fromabove]

Originally posted by Fromabove
No, the USA is not illegally occupying any nation. Iraq violated the terms for cease fire (15 UN resolutions) so we went in.

Russia was a sanctioned peacekeeper in S Ossetia - tasked with protecting local civilians from any aggression

As for your "UN resolutions", how is that search for WMD's going for you? Found any yet?

Originally posted by Fromabove
Afghanistan harbored a wanted confessed terrorist responsible for death and destruction on American soil. So we went in.

How is that any legal justification for attack of an independent sovereignty? UK harbors individuals that Russia considered terrorists - does that entitle Russia to a right to attack UK? Mexico no doubt harbors some U.S. criminals. Lets bomb the crap out of it.

Originally posted by Fromabove
We'll drain them dry like we did before when they fell to pieces last time.

Before when? Provide an example, backed up by proof of how U.S. is responsible for said "drainage".

And what makes you so sure that something that might have worked before will work now - seeing how Russia has a completely new regime, with new political and economic structure?

You come up with these one liners - but fall short on making any coherent arguement supported by anything other than your opinion.

Originally posted by Fromabove
But this time we'll make sure they stay down.

You do that. Chuck Norris is behind you all the way. Every movie has a happy ending.

Originally posted by Fromabove
But if there is war. Russia will suffer more then the USA.

"More" is a rather subjective term.

Pak stops overland oil supplies to US-led troops in Afghan

Islamabad, Sept 06: To mark its protest against the continuing cross-border raids by the US-led forces from Afghan soil, Pakistan on Saturday said it was suspending overland oil supplies to the coalition troops in the war-ravaged country.

Defence Minister Chaudhry Ahmed Mukhtar said the decision to stop the supplies had been made because the attacks by the US-led forces from Afghanistan had continued despite protests by Pakistan.

"We've already taken action today. We've stopped the supply of oil and this would tell how serious we are to the International Security Assistance Force," Mukhtar said outside parliament.

He said the coalition forces could not carry on with such attacks. "We told the (visiting) German Defence Minister yesterday that this is not acceptable, the way you people are handling the situation in the border areas."

Asked how long the oil supplies would be stopped, he replied: "As long as they don't come up with some proper answer. We will wait for a reply from them."

Pakistan's action came after a series of attacks by coalition forces in North and South Waziristan tribal regions, portrayed by the US and the Afghan governments as a "safe haven" for Taliban and al-Qaida militants.

Bureau Report

www.zeenews.com...

Pakistan reserves right to retaliate in future: Gen Tariq

RAWALPINDI: Pakistan reserves the right to appropriately retaliate against unilateral attacks by coalition forces from Afghanistan, Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee (CJCSC) General Tariq Majid said on Friday. “Pakistan reserves the right to appropriately retaliate in future,” General Tariq told German Defence Minister Franz Josef Jung who called on him at the Joint Staff Headquarters. Condemning the attack by US forces at Angoor Ada, the CJCSC said such cross-border strikes would alienate locals. General Tariq said that Afghanistan was levelling allegations against Pakistan to cover its failures. staff report

source


I thought this was relevant as it will place even more reliance by NATO on the Russian route to get supplies in to Afganistan.

[edit on 2008-9-7 by primamateria]

I don't know if this may be considered off-topic, but here is some economic data about Russia that I think (I am not good at economics) may show Russia's economic situation.

Public debt: 5.9% of GDP (2007 est.)
Industrial production growth rate: 7.4% (2007 est.)
Oil - exports: 5.08 million bbl/day (2007)
Oil - imports: 100,000 bbl/day (2005)
Oil - proved reserves: 60 billion bbl (1 January 2006 est.)
Natural gas - production: 656.2 billion cu m (2007 est.)
Natural gas - consumption: 610 billion cu m (2007 est.)
Natural gas - exports: 182 billion cu m (2007 est.)
Natural gas - imports: 37.5 billion cu m (2005)
Natural gas - proved reserves: 47.57 trillion cu m (1 January 2006)
Current account balance: $76.6 billion (2007 est.)
Exports: $365 billion (2007 est.)
Imports: $260.4 billion (2007 est.)
Reserves of foreign exchange and gold: $476.4 billion (31 December 2007 est.)
Debt - external: $343.1 billion (31 December 2007)

As a comparation, here are the same values for the US.

Public debt: 60.8% of GDP (2007 est.)
Industrial production growth rate: 0.5% (2007 est.)
Oil - exports: 1.048 million bbl/day (2004)
Oil - imports: 13.15 million bbl/day (2004)
Oil - proved reserves: 21.76 billion bbl (1 January 2006 est.)
Natural gas - production: 490.8 billion cu m (2005 est.)
Natural gas - consumption: 604 billion cu m (2005 est.)
Natural gas - exports: 19.8 billion cu m (2005 est.)
Natural gas - imports: 117.9 billion cu m (2005)
Natural gas - proved reserves: 5.551 trillion cu m (1 January 2006 est.)
Current account balance: -$738.6 billion (2007 est.)
Exports: $1.149 trillion f.o.b. (2007 est.)
Imports: $1.965 trillion f.o.b. (2007 est.)
Reserves of foreign exchange and gold: $70.57 billion (31 December 2007 est.)
Debt - external: $12.25 trillion (30 June 2007)

Source

If anyone with more knowledge of international economics wants to explain these values and the implications in this situation I would be grateful.

Edited to add US imports.

[edit on 7/9/2008 by ArMaP]

reply to post by Fromabove


the UK will have to fire up the coal pits again to release its reliance on external sources. a fossil fuel is a fossil fuel anyway.

david

reply to post by ArMaP


Its simple. Just look at the numbers. Obviously for those dates, the Russian economic wheel was, and probably still is...spinning faster and smoother than the US economic wheel is/was!!! I also noticed on the US chart that the import figure is left out. For a guesstimate of that, just stop by your nearest walmart and read the lables on items and where they are made.

Cheers!!!

[edit on 7-9-2008 by RFBurns]

reply to post by RFBurns


Thanks.

I edited the post to include the forgotten US imports.

NATO delegation to visit Georgia

Georgia accession to NATO is almost a done deal.... unfortunately.

The war in popular culture

Originally posted by maloy
reply to post by Sky watcher

 

Again this is a theory. It provides no facts or proof of any kind and only loosely ties together different and unconfirmed events. As a theory it is plausible - but in order to be at least somewhat believable facts are needed. Seeing who is presenting this story - it is not difficult to guess that it has a great amount of spin.

Georgia had UAV all over the area in the beginning of August. I am sure U.S. has spy satellites monitoring the area as well. Surely somebody must have some concrete proof of this theory if it's true, and I am sure Georgia would gladly share this proof.


I am open to ideas. Show me visial proof that Russian armor was in S Ossetia on August 7th, or that S Ossetian militia started an artillery barrage against Georgian villages, and I will believe that the this story has some truth in it. Otherwise it remains a theory engineered by the Georgian propaganda machine.

LoL, Russia shot down the Georgian UAV. Did you forget that one? I seen the web reports of the border skirmishes days before Georgia hit back hard, I cant find them now and thats more than likely due to Russian hackers. I guess we will have to wait until the U.S. or one of the NATO country releases the satellite shots.

Originally posted by Sky watcher
LoL, Russia shot down the Georgian UAV.

Yes - because it has or was about to violate Russian airspace, and was already over the sanctioned neutral peacekeeping zone - where any Georgian air assets are fair game. Georgia knows well enough, and has been warned by Abkhazia and S Ossetia, that any Georgian military airplanes in their airspace will not be tolerated. Georgia took a risk, and lost its UAVs. What does that prove?

Originally posted by Sky watcher
I seen the web reports of the border skirmishes days before Georgia hit back hard

Skirmishes with who? At what border? Russian border? There weren't even Georgian soldiers near the Russian border. Any sort of actual proof or news reports? There were skirmished with Ossetians and Abkhaz - but then that is nothing new for the last 15 years. But I have not heard about any pre-August 7th skirmishes with Russian military (UAVs don't count).

Originally posted by Sky watcher
I cant find them now and thats more than likely due to Russian hackers.

If you think Russian hackers are able to control the entire internet, taking off any and all content and archives of certain events - than I would say you are greatly overestimating them. This is impossible.

Originally posted by Sky watcher
I guess we will have to wait until the U.S. or one of the NATO country releases the satellite shots.

Exactly - untill then this is pure speculation, and labeling that theory as proof is not definitive in any way. I am thinking that if Georgia or U.S. had something to prove (especially something as important as this) - they would have already done it. Now that the PR war climax is over, it won't have as much of a dramatic effect.

Not my usual source but I thought this was interesting and timely:

Vladimir Putin set to bait US with nuclear aid for Tehran

www.timesonline.co.uk...

Russia is considering increasing its assistance to Iran’s nuclear programme in response to America’s calls for Nato expansion eastwards and the presence of US Navy vessels in the Black Sea delivering aid to Georgia.

The Kremlin is discussing sending teams of Russian nuclear experts to Tehran and inviting Iranian nuclear scientists to Moscow for training, according to sources close to the Russian military.

As I predicted Russia is building up its ties with Iran, as an alliance of necessity. Again many will say that this is proves time and again that Putin is evil and all that trash talk, but the timing of this announcement hints that Russia's actions are reactionary. Either Russia is seriously concerned that Iran is on the endangered sovereignty list with all the U.S./Israel threats, or Russia simply wants to rub it in for U.S. just to prove that it can.

I still do not see Russia becoming a true ally of Iran, or Iran being let into the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (recently reported that Iran is petitioning for this). But in order to have at least some counter-weight to the U.S. expansion in Eastern Europe, Russia has decided to make a stand. Iran today, and tomorrow it may be Azerbaijan or Kazakhstan. This recent conflict was a catalyst - and now both sides are quickly rallying to get support in this crucial region.



Also some news on Cheney's recent visit to Azerbaijan: it appears he was not able to convince Alieyev to support the U.S. startegy and to ally with the U.S., and Cheney left Azerbaijan before schedule and appeared quiet angered. I am guessing Alieyev affirmed that he is not a puppet of any sort, and will not tow Washington's line. Poor Dick now has to make new plans.

Moscow has been angered by Washington’s promise to give Georgia £564m in aid following the Russian invasion of parts of the country last month after Tbilisi’s military offensive. Kremlin officials suspect the US is planning to rearm the former Soviet republic and is furious at renewed support for attempts by Georgia and Ukraine to join Nato.

And there you have it ladies. Let the games begin. What we are seeing now is still warm-up as far as I can tell. Sort of a pep rally if you will. But if we can learn one thing from history - is that large military alliances almost always result in wars. No WW3 fanaticism needed, but I am certain Georgia War was not the last proxy war we have seen.

“Everything has changed since the war in Georgia,” said one source. “What seemed impossible before, is more than possible now when our friends become our enemies and our enemies our friends. What are American ships doing off our coast? Do you see Russian warships off the coast of America?

“Russia will respond. A number of possibilities are being considered, including hitting America there where it hurts most – Iran.”

Oh snap. Someone had to say it. This is all hardly surprising - and even us the amateur political hawks of ATS have seen this coming miles away. Now I always said that U.S./Israel all-out attack on Iran is unrealistic at this point, but it may very well become impossible in a couple of months.

The funny thing is - Iran comes out as the biggest winner in this shuffle, without even needing to do anything. U.S. angers Russia through its actions in the Caucasus and Eastern Europe. Russia replies by coming over to play with Iran. And Iran just sits back and laughs. Now Iran has some powerful friends, and is safer than ever. If it's really lucky it may even get its very own nuclear arms to parade around Teheran, and pretend to be one of the big boys. It's too early to speculate on this yet, but with these good odds Iran should be throwing dice in Vegas.

But diplomats say that despite its help with the Bushehr plant, Moscow has so far played a constructive role as a mediator between the regime in Tehran and the West and by backing United Nations sanctions.

Earlier this year, in one of his last actions as president, Putin added Russia’s stamp of approval to a UN security council resolution imposing fresh sanctions against Iran.

Aww look - someone is still trying to be optimistic! "A constructive mediator". Thanks to U.S., "a constructive mediator" no more. U.S. is pushing Russia to play the devil's advocate now, and at this point Russia isn't caring much for holding back.

The one mediators that can prevent this whole shuffle from escalating are Europeans (and not those Eastern lap dogs). They seem to be neutral as far as choosing sides between U.S. and Russia - and to them economics matter more than ego. Sarkozy to the rescue!!!

“After the war in Georgia it’s difficult to imagine relations between Russia and America getting worse,” said a western diplomat. “Russia giving greater nuclear assistance to the Iranians would do the trick – that’s for sure.”

U.S. wants tricks? Build the Nabucco pipeline and you will open up a whole new bag of tricks. U.S. sees an opportunity in the Caspian region, but with any great opportunity come great risks. Russia has some tricks up its sleeve, and local leaders such as Alieyev in Azerbaijan are hardly weaklings. This ain't the Middle East play ground. The lands (Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan) are still ruled by Soviet/KGB mavericks, and you can't simply overthrow them with a "Color Revolution".

Unless the U.S. stops this arrogant plowing throught the Caucasus and the Caspian, it will face some major obstacles ahead. Obstacles the likes of which you have not seen since the best episodes of the Cold War.

Hardliners were infuriated last week by the visit to Georgia of Dick Cheney, the American vice-president. “Georgia will be in our alliance,” Cheney said. He also visited Ukraine, whose Nato aspirations could make it the next flashpoint between Russia and America.

Isn't Dick Cheney a hardliner? He might as well be. So what we are seeing is hardliners vs hardliners. Fun times. We'll needs lots and lots of popcorn.

However in Kiev, the Ukrainian capital, events appeared to be moving Moscow’s way. Viktor Yushchenko, the pro-western president, is fighting to stay in power in a crisis that could see him impeached.

But no doubt Cheney presented Yuschenko will a plan of actions. I am sure the U.S. won't let its Ukrainian investment go down in flames this easily. And Yuschenko is not pro-Western, he is pro-U.S. (as opposed to being say pro-Ukrainian).

So lets see how Cheney's weekend get away turned out:

-Saaka is a good old buddy of Cheney, but the visit was rather grim, given that Russia took away much of Georgia's new war toys. Saaka is pretty upset having nothing to play with, but Cheney promised to raise his allowance.

-Being dissed in Azerbaijan by Alieyev left Cheney pretty pissed off. But he'll be back, with a big bag of hard cash. Anyone can be bought right? Only of Russia doesn't buy them first.

-Yuschenko is a fine friend of good old Cheney, but now a friend with little power left. They discussed NATO and military alliance, but given that this is now practically impossible, the day dreaming session had to end with disappointment. Cheney will be back, but again Russia is the favored suitor here. Don't you love political marriages?

“I’m amused by claims in the West that Russia is the loser in this crisis,” said a former Putin aide. “What would Washington do if we were arming Cuba the way it armed Georgia? The postSoviet days when we could be pushed around are over.”

Now you knew this wasn't complete without someone mentioning Cuba. We can all rest easily now. Wait Cuba? No couldn't possibly.... But wait, maybe just maybe... it is Putin's aide after all. Venezuela is right there too. Oh the possibilities! U.S. being pissed off is good for a change - wouldn't hurt global stability.

Either someone is overly sentimental for the good old days, or the political pundits and conspiracy theorists are about to have a field day. Wait and see folks wait and see.





Edit:

Heck, it might as well be Iran's birthday:

Russia OKs S-300 Sale To Iran

www.menewsline.com...

MOSCOW [MENL] -- Russia has approved the sale of the S-300PMU2 air defensesystem to Iran. Russian government sources said Prime Minister Vladimir Putin approvedthe sale of the S-300 surface-to-air missile system to Iran in 2008. Thesources said the two countries have concluded delivery and otherarrangements for the export of the air defense platform.

Was this move in U.S.' playbook when they helped Saakashvili plan an attack on S. Ossetia? As I said - Iran is going to come out the big winner in all of this. Although I am not yet convinced, it looks like Russia decided to finally jump into the game head first.

[edit on 7-9-2008 by maloy]