Russia/Georgia Situation News & Updates

I am very much troubled by what I have seen play out in the Western mass media today - especially the American media. I am not talking about the fighting ending in Georgia. I speak about the information war being waged against Russian by Saakashvilli and by the West - an information war so obvious it is disgusting.



Let me start out by explaining what is going on in Russia. There is Russian propaganda in the Russian media no doubt - however the U.S. has beat even Russia in its biased reporting. When news broke in Russia yesterday that Russian troops indeed struck inside a few Georgian towns - there was much opposition in Russia.

Not everyone is united behing Putin/Medvedev as you may believe. Speakers of the opposition party were televized speaking out against any Russian actions inside Georgia. Many people I talked to were saying that Georgians have been our brothers throughout history, and we should not attack them - it is enough to chase them away from S. Ossetia. The radio hosted talk shows with experts warning against any Russian actions in Georgia - even if it's not an invasion.

However all of Russia was amazed by what coverage this is receiving in the West - that Russia is being painted as the aggressor. That Tbilisi is under massive attack. That there is ethnical cleansing on the Georgians. Believe it or not Russian news broadcast CNN's and Sky's coverage to show how blatantly biased it is - based on nothing but rumors from Georgia.



The facts are:

There is not proof of any large scale attack by Russia inside Georgia.

Russians never occupied Gori - no one proved that it has anyway, let alone advanced towards Tbilisi.

Western media filmed Georgian tanks, while talking about Russian armor. Remember - the two use the same equipment.

The Western media is saying over 2,000 dead because of Russia's actions in Georgia - AND THEY ARE PILING THE 1,500+ DEAD S. OSSETIANS WITH GEORGIANS. They were killed by Georgia not by Russia for God's sakes.

Now the West wants to punish Russia for what it calls "Russian aggresion". Russia is made out to be the bad guy, while Georgia is the victim. Some yell to kick Russia out of G8. Others want Georgia to instantly join NATO.

THE ENTIRE GOD DAMN WEST IS UP AT ARMS - WITHOUT ANY PROOF THAT GEORGIA WAS INDEED BEING INVADED.

All of Western media is relying on one person - Saakashvilli - to report what is going on. Saakashvilli says Russia is attacking towards Tbilisi - the West writes it as true. Russians are in Gori he boasts - must be true for CNN and SKY. Russia is killing thousands of Georgian civilians Saakashvilli reports - he can't possibly lie.




In the last two days we have seen respected American media outlets become whores, for the lack of a better word. They used rumors and speculation from Saakashvilli (well known for exagerating the truth - to put it lightly) to twist the news and report it as if it is true. They ignored Russia's reports that there is no invasion but only limited strikes completely. One was sure reading SKY news that Russia is on the outskirts of Tbilisi. People on ATS were convinced that Russians would roll all over Georgia in a matter of hours.

Nothing happened. A small amount of troops that crossed the border, turned around after completing their mission. No one ever saw the "Russian hordes" invading Georgia - if only in their imagination.

And what about the casualty figure. Georgia yells - try Russia for genocide? Ironic - seeing how out of 2,000+ plus dead reported in the war - over 1,500 were S. Ossetian civilians killed by Georgia. But we will see this cleared up soon - so don't trust anything yet.

And where was all this coming from? Now we know - American government and NATO. They turned an isolated conflict of misunderstanding - to their advantage to win an information war on Russia.


---------------------------------------




Many pages back I wrote a plausible scenerio of how the conflict escalated. Both Georgia and Russia are to blame. Neither is the good guy, neither is the bad. Civilians were killed on both sides.

I stopped that scenario with the Russians' limited advance into Georgia. Now let me continue that scenerio of what appears to have happened next from a neutral point of view (again partly echoing Echo of Moscow radio):



A small number (less than 1,000 known) of Russian troops make a quick strike into Senaki and Zagdidi to clear out Georgian positions which are still conducting strikes against S. Ossetia. Explosions were reported near Tskhinvalli from those strikes, and filmed by Russian journalists.

Since the Georgian troops have stopped in Gori, and most of the civilian population was evacuated - a fight ensued there. We do not yet know what happened, but it appears Russian tanks never moved in. This was as far as the "Russian supposed invasion ever got". Some tanks and helicopters are filmed in the area - but there is no way of telling if they are Russian on Georgian.


By now Georgia is waging a full information war. All of media and information sources are fully under government control in Tbilisi - the population falsely believes that Russians are about to invade Tbilisi. U.S. and European NATO members are angered out of their panties - despite lack of facts about what is going on. They are ready to help out Georgia with anything and everything short of sending their own personel there. The West picks up the full info war against Russia to help Georgia.

Russia is now in a quagmire. It did not plan to invade, but now it has two choices - neither of which will help it will the Information War in the eyes of the West:

1. Russia clearly sees what Saakashvilli is trying to do - raise the alarm without the fire. Russia could withdraw its' limited strike troops inside Georgia back to S. Ossetia, call off Abkhazia's actions, and stop its air stikes. If Russia does this, it would prove that Saakashvilli was lying it seems. But not so fast - the West already has Russia painted as an aggressor. If Russia turns back it would be shown in the West as a weakness - Russia is afraid to take on a small Georgian defense force. Alternatively Russia could be shown to be scared-off by the U.S. threats. Furthermore Georgia would now have a direct one-way ticket to NATO - having convinced the West that it is gravely threated by Russia.

2. Not much time is left before the West starts sending military aid to Georgia. Tbilisi is already painted like a garrison of "Democracy". Furthermore if Russia turns back - Georgia is on the straight path to NATO, and Russia-West relations are ruined. Russia could thrust forward - and do what everyone is predicting it will do - occupy Georgia and oust Saakashvilli. A full force attack would leave tens of thousands dead in its wake, but Russia can quickly occupy Georgia in as little as 1 week - the North Caucasus Russian front is among the strongest in the country. Russia would gain more land, control the oil pipeline from Azerbaijan, and would prevent NATO from advancing into Georgia. But then Russian image is ruined in the eyes of the West for decades to come. A new cold war could be imminent. And Saakashvilli's regime could instead of surrendering start a proxy war fully backed by U.S. and NATO.


Given the potentially very grave consequences of the second scenerio, Russia finally chooses the first - but it loses the Information War, without gaining anything. Thank's to U.S./NATO's propaganda campaign Russia is in a lose - lose situation, and it choses the safer path out of the conflict it did not want to be in.

---

As for Saakashvilli (notice not Georgia but Saakashvilli) - he wins one way or the other. Russian intellectuals have suggested this scenerio for Saakashvilli during the second day of the fighting. Saakashvilli planned for this all along.

Many are asking why he attacked S. Ossetia knowing that he is provoking a much stronger enemy. Why indeed? There is no way he didn't predict Russian intervention - especially with the Western/U.S. military advisors behind his back.

Saakashvilli planned for a propaganda war all along. He knew that if he can get the Russians to counter attack - and if he controls the Georgian media - he could feed the West any news he wants, especially knowing that he has full political backing from the U.S. He bets that Russians will counter attack, but not invade Georgia - and that thanks to U.S. and NATO backing he will remain in power. The Georgian citizens are also blocked from Russian media - and are unaware of the Georgian attack on Tskhinvalli or any earlier events.

Saakashvilli's aim - to get into NATO within his second term of Presidency, and secure Georgia as a pro-U.S. garrison. S. Ossetia and Abkhazia are blocking his way into NATO. Now through this conflict - Georgia willingly abandons hope for having these breakaway republic be part of the country. But it gains West's attention as a victim of Russian aggression. The conservative leadership in the West will now allow for express ticket to NATO for Georgia. With nothing in the way of the NATO membership Saakashvilli quickly agrees, and helps NATO establish a true military outpost in the Caucasus - oil pipelines and all.



Does Russia win anything? Not much. Does S. Ossetia? Not with 1,500 dead civilians. Do Georgian civlians? Not much - they are too hurt by the conflict. Does Saakashvilli? Yes a membership in NATO and strengthening of his regime.

WHO IS THE BIGGERST WINNER OF ALL? U.S. and NATO. They now have a good excuse to rush Georgia into NATO, and to militarize the caucasus. The vital oil pipeline is secure. Russia looks like a bad guy. U.S./NATO look like the moderators.

Now ask yourself - who would have the most interest in innitiating the whole conflict? THE ONE THAT HAS MOST TO GAIN.

reply to post by maloy


your analysis is pretty good, as far as it goes. however, your bias may well be showing because russia is as much and as big a player in this game as any of those you vilify here.

the truth is there is no good guy here. there are only bad guys and pawns. and of course the innocent people who they sacrificed to their game. but people are fungible, aren't they?

[edit on 12-8-2008 by ~Lucidity]

reply to post by Vitchilo


While it breaks my heart (daily) to live in a world where this is true, sadly despite all pretenses of cooperation and mutual respect, nation states all have their own agendas and ambitions. America has theirs, Russia has theirs, and Georgia has theirs. America's geopolitical agenda appears to include the expansion of NATO, and the bolstering of a pro-western (media's name for it, not mine) administration in Georgia. Likewise, Russia's agenda appears to be to reassert its economic and military power in order to counter what it views as American hegemony.

So, naturally, the political strategy to ensure the American side of this following the conflict with Russia will be to try to isolate Russia politically and internationally. For many years now, Russia has spoken of what it terms a "bipolar" world order with America and NATO on one side and Russia on the other, in contrast to America's (or at least America's current administration's) vision of a unipolar world order with American preeminence featuring prominently.

The two are bound to clash, and both are bound to use every tool at their disposal - social, economic, media, military, and political - to achieve their ends. It's very sad, and in my opinion unnecessary in a world where the means finally exist for people to communicate and coexist, should they choose to. Both sides want to have their cake and eat it too though, and in my view that is why Russia and America's depiction of the conflict will be broadly different and biased.

I thought this news from December last year might be interesting for those following this news. It was then that Putin signed a law withdrawing Russia from the conventional arms treaty, which until that time limited the number of tanks and other conventional arms that could be fielded in western Russia. This is relevant because Putin said that the reason for withdrawing from this treaty was that the United States and NATO would not ratify a modified version of the treaty which would have provided for Russia's withdrawal of forces from Georgia, because of Russia's slow pace of said withdrawal:
www.washingtonpost.com...


[edit on 8/12/2008 by AceWombat04]

This thread is an ATS Big-Thread with 3382 replies, and subject to more strict moderation.
Please stay focused. Stay on-topic. Minimal or off-topic posts and T&C violations are subject deletion and/or a warning.

Since the Military battle is over with total Military and Diplomatic victory of Russia and utter humiliation of US and EU lets think about the consequences
The US and the EU dont have the Resources to return back Russia the full 100% humiliation it has suffered but it will try its best to do what ever it can .....here are their options

1 Excluding Russia from G-8 and Paris club
Cons: if this is being done ...then it ll be further difficult to deal with Russia in future...because then Russia will have nothing to loose

2 An attack on Iran
This is unlikely to happen UNLESS Iran does something silly because the present American public sentiment is against long term war after the stratigic defeat of US in the war against Iraq .But the US can think of a Russia style small scale war.

3 Including Georgia and Ukraine into NATO ...this is likely to happen very soon .....Russia dont have the resources to stop it ...but when this happens Russia will try its best to enter in some sort of Military allance with its Ex Soviet allies ...which wont be difficult for Russia to achive ...
But if Russia can manage to bag a military alliance with China ....which will be ver very difficult (but not impossible ) then Russia can again reply back to the NATO threat .

Not to much in the way of updates from Russian sources today.

Very surprisingly most Russian sources are talking not about the conflict, but about the West's accusation against Russia. And the weird thing - they are not denying them - but just reporting them.

The Russian news appear to be saying the same exact thing the West and Georgian news are, but from a slightly ironic view point.

I am just translating the headlines from Russian sources - the content you already heard on Western news:

Leaders of U.S. Congress Accuse Russia
lenta.ru...


McCain Promised to Accept Georgia into NATO
lenta.ru...


International Military Exercises in Which Russia Planned to Participate are to be Canceled by U.S.
www.echo.msk.ru...


The Hague International Court Accepted Georgia's Claims about Russia's Actions in Georgia
www.echo.msk.ru...
www.echo.msk.ru...

Massive Anti-Russian Protest in Tbilisi, with Leaders of Poland, Ukraine and the Baltics
www.echo.msk.ru...



It also seems like Russia is purposely avoiding talk about independence of S. Ossetia and Abkhazia. Even after what happened Russia is not seeking to make them independent. Russia likely realizes that the independence for the two breakaway zones, will mean nothing is holding Georgia back from joining NATO right away.

If Russia still allows Georgia some territorial claim there, it will be a minor disincentive for Georgia to proceed with NATO membership.

As I speculated when I started the War in Georgia thread on August 7th - this is turning out to be all about NATO's expansion around Russia. This will be the major news and development in the coming months.

Unlike I speculated - it appears that Saakashvilli will not be ousted. He planned for the whole thing - and he has the country under a fairly firm control as compared to before the start of the war - when Georgia was almost on the brink of a coup several times. Saakashvilli is reckless and hotheaded, but he is not dumb. He appears to have tricked Russia as well as his own population. Welcome the new dictator of the Caucasus - he is here to stay regardless of his crimes.




And I will make a guess about who is next right now - AZERBAIJAN. Carefully watch Azerbaijan in the coming months and years, and its own breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh, Suddenly NATO will start negotiating there too - and suddently Nagorno-Karabakh will be on the world's front page news.

Azerbaijan is where the oil pipeline that runs through Georgia originates. As I speculated on ATS as long as a year ago - a quiet battle between U.S. and Russia for political control over Azerbaijan is being waged - parallel to Georgia's. U.S. is leading, as it has the support of the country's dictator (yes - not President).

The Caucasus fire may have been put out once again, but be sure - someone is still putting lighting fluid all over the region. Caucasus will ignite in again, much sooner than we will forget the war in South Ossetia. While the oil flows and NATO makes its plans, you will see blood in the Caspian geo-political region.

You know who to thank for that.


[edit on 12-8-2008 by maloy]

Maloy has presented an issue that is worthy of its own thread. The issue of propaganda and the media. I've been so frustrated at the lack of news available in the US regarding this conflict. Each station replays the same half dozen videos of soldiers and armored vehicles. It's impossible to tell who they represent, so the media can spin their story however they want. Over the weekend, I actually saw Saakashvilli telling how some unexploded ordinance was found in the wreckage of a Russian jet. He said that the bomb had the words "this is for America" written on it in Russian. Made me wonder what kind of a game he's playing.

This is truly a huge issue. People should be screaming in the streets that we're being blatantly lied to. We can never trust the media's reports. Yes, I know it's been this way for quite some time. This conflict just made it so transparent. I truly hope all the propaganda, regardless of origin, doesn't end up creating a situation that will kill us all. It's very frightening.

Joe Mestas, American citizen living in South Ossetia, who witnessed everything happening in the region, talked to RT and blamed U.S. and Georgian leaders for the outbreak of violence
www.russiatoday.com...

reply to post by AceWombat04


Thank you for your view, I totally agree. But the globalists, especially Brewinski, started the whole thing of world domination after the cold war with the help of the PNAC members, Bilderberg and the CFR. They are nutjobs.

If they were really pro-peace and pro-democracy, they would have asked Russia to join the EU and NATO... and the relations were becoming better... until the missile defense started in Europe... which Russia warned many times that one day they would respond to that... which they did in some way with this conflict.

And Maloy, thanks for you analysis... and yeah, now that the War On Terror BS isn't working anymore, they have to create Cold War 2 or Hot War 1 to wipe out 90% of humanity, a police state and a draft.

We're all losers in this, russians, americans, europeans. The elites are nutjobs on both sides... someday we'll have to wipe them out ourselves before they bring WW3 and kill us all.

Originally posted by Vitchilo
And Maloy, thanks for you analysis... and yeah, now that the War On Terror BS isn't working anymore, they have to create Cold War 2 or Hot War 1 to wipe out 90% of humanity, a police state and a draft.

We're all losers in this, russians, americans, europeans. The elites are nutjobs on both sides... someday we'll have to wipe them out ourselves before they bring WW3 and kill us all.

Wow. Kind of stunned right now. Yes, we must thank our friend, maloy, he should receive 80 billions points or something.... I do feel this is the beginning of the end. Goodbye, world. It was nice seeing you. The tall grass, the shadows from the strands against the sun's blast. Tis all been great!

SO, have they ceased fire? Russia? I feel like a calm before a storm. Everyone seems complacent, at least in the states. It is a living ellipses. Cease fire, bombing continues, and with the words of Rice

"It is very important now that all parties cease fire," Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said. "The Georgians have agreed to a cease-fire, the Russians need to stop their military operations as they have apparently said that they will, but those military operations really do now need to stop because calm needs to be restored."

How much longer? If a cease fire has been called, and this continues till Friday? What after that? A nuclear exchange?

[edit on 13-8-2008 by pluckynoonez]

Speculation is a tid-bit of uselessness, but I am wondering.

[edit on 13-8-2008 by pluckynoonez]