a reply to:
Kallipygywiggy
Starmer just made a speech warning us all of pain to come. No PM wants to do that, unless they know there's far worse to come. I don't buy that it's
merely a mea culpa for upping tax, which has been long disseminated and debated in the press. Jobs market is incredibly tight; many contractors saw
work dry up last year and not return. PAYE staff are suffering redundancies. Everyone i know in either of these camps is out of work, or very worried.
Public sector is probably the only place safe from this (for now). ONS are voodoo'ing the stats with all kinds of iffy 'not unemployed, but inactive'
criteria. Do you really believe any gov wouldn't use that to fudge numbers in desperate times?
Austerity 2.0 is now here! Austerity 1.0 came in a low base rate environment that is impossible this time round. After the GFC they QE'd and ZIRP'D to
keep the nation afloat on free debt. Problem is that the Tories irresponsibly kept the UK hooked on the free debt way too long - until Ukraine & the
COLC. So now millions are over leveraged and teetering on ruin, but all the gov, or Bank of England can do is shave 0.25% off base rate when an
inflation reading edges down. Winter's coming, energy cap is off, homes and businesses will be charged more, which pumps many other costs... Inflation
will probably edge up instead of down and -horror- rates may actually edge back up. Disposable income remaining absent, business margins evaporating,
so more firms in the retail chain laying folk off.
If, or perhaps
when deflation trends, as it inevitably will when Starmer's 'pain' arrives, then changes may accelerate. If this happens it
could be defined as a collapse, because that's when employers panic and tighten belts, unemployment balloons in a feedback loop of no one buying so
wages can't be paid. Before we know it we're back to the 90s recession conditions. Worse, perhaps! And the publics a crying "
Why didn't anyone warn
us?" Well, Starmer just did!
Is retail a major player? In a consumer society it's vital! Consumerism - all public transactions we make to live - is the foundation. When that goes
the domino effect of unemployment leads all the way up and down the chain from manufacturing to delivery, advertising (and all the other things
advertising funds) to retail. Many industries are involved, not just the shops on the high street.
I hope we avoid this, but the signs have not been good for a while and i'm reading Starmer's warning of 'pain coming' as pretty much confirming that
he knows the state cannot escape it. Imo it's a time to consolidate, not speculate!
edit on 30-8-2024 by McGinty because: (no reason given)