Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 3

originally posted by: Oldcarpy2
a reply to: quintessentone

How can Ukraine fly over Russia with apparent ease?

Anyone know what jets they are?

Ukraine is so far apparently not risking the F-16's for ground attack missions in Kursk. This article says they are flying old soviet SU-27s

Ukr ainian Jets Join The Invasion Of Russia’s Kursk Oblast—And Blow Up A Russian Command Post

The Ukrainian jet reportedly struck a Russian command post in Tetkino, a few miles north of the front line in Kursk. Notably, the raid was apparently conducted by an aging, ex-Soviet Sukhoi Su-27—and not one of Ukraine’s recently-supplied ex-Danish Lockheed Martin F-16s.

While the F-16s are compatible with the JDAM bombs, there’s evidence the Ukrainian air force plans to deploy the nimble fighters for air-defense patrols and not riskier ground attacks—at least initially.

The risk to aircraft around the Kursk salient is significant. The Ukrainian military deployed what one Russian blogger characterized as “a significant amount” of air-defense batteries as well as electronic jammers that can block radio signals and, in some cases, even throw off satellite-guided bombs.

With a big assist from explosive drones, the Ukrainian batteries have shot down several Russian helicopters. Firing back, Russian artillery damaged one Ukrainian Buk air-defense vehicle.

Ukraine shot down a Russian SU-34 according to this video:

Update from Ukraine | Awesome! Ruzzia can't stop the Ukrainian Army Attacks | Big Win!


at about 4 minutes, he says Russia is sending troops from Kaliningrad to Kursk.
I read Kaliningrad is mostly not happy to be under Russian control, I think there's a movement there, maybe this is their chance to do something with Russian troops leaving, but Russia doesn't want to give up Kaliningrad either.

4:50 he explains how Ukraine sends sabotage reconnaissance groups ahead to disrupt Russian logistics and communications, ahead of Ukraine's advances.

5:40 he shows the new defense lines Russia is building, which are far from the border, just ahead of the nuclear power plant, to prevent Ukraine from reaching the nuclear power plant.

6:35, Ukraine shot down a Russian SU-34.

7:30 last night, Ukraine attacked 4 Russian airfields, one of them 800km from the Ukraine border! Denys shows images of explosions at 2 of the airfields, and is still looking for imagery of what happened at the other two airfields.

a reply to: Arbitrageur

Outstanding.

Both you and your updates and the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

a reply to: Freeborn
Thanks, but F2d5thCavv2 gives updates a lot more consistently than I do, and I appreciate that. I only chime in when I see something interesting going on, and right now it's very interesting so I'm posting a lot more than usual.

And I agree the Ukrainian bravery is outstanding. This has to be a morale booster for Ukraine's troops.

The news is getting bizarre, and what's even more bizarre is I tried searching for this in the news but I haven't found it in western media, so I'm thankful for these vloggers who read and follow the Russian and Ukrainian media and understand it without needing it translated.

OK so in my previous post I mentioned the Russian from "Inside Russia" said Putin signed his own death sentence by actually giving Bortnikov too much power, he had more power than Putin. He was in charge of the FSB/KGB and, inside Russia, also in charge of the army. And maybe even somewhat in charge of the army outside Russia to the extent he needed to move troops from outside Russia, to Kursk to deal with Ukraine's counter-attack.

So apparently, it's not known why, (did Putin realize his mistake that he gave Bortnikov too much power, or Bortnikov did something to lose Putin's trust, or we can speculate all day on the reason), but 24 hours later, Putin replaced Bortnikov with his former bodyguard, at least according to InsideRussia and it's usually a reliable source. Obviously this shows there are huge problems in the Kremlin, the power structure is not stable, and this is huge news. Whatever is going on in Kursk, the news from inside the Kremlin is even bigger, that Putin is making seemingly completely rash decisions, then changing them the very next day! It's like he's freaking out. So this news is HUGE! I copied the relevant part of the transcript from this video:

Konstantin Samoilov - Putin Broke Russia & Ukraine's Kursk Offensive May End his Regime‪@INSIDERUSSIA‬


13 minutes into the video:

And Vladimir Putin two days ago fires Shoigu (maybe this is a brain fart, and he means Gerasimov? I think so.), and places the head of the KGB, Bortnikov, in place of him for the first time in Russia's history. Power got consolidated in one hands in the hands of the KGB chief. And this is the end for everyone. This is the end for the army. This is the end for Putin, for this government.

And I couldn't believe Putin did that. Okay. Um, and Putin is not a novice in this power game. I think he understood very well what he was doing. And the thing is so swung, he didn't have a choice. Every single move he would make would place him into a worse position. So had he not replaced Gerasimov, he would have Ukrainians near Moscow in no time, I think.

Okay, so, um, in Russia, they say, um, to make a choice between, uh, a lesser evil. So I think he made a choice between lesser evil, but then this lesser evil placing Bortnikov in place, uh, you know, in charge of our forces. People say, well, he's not in charge of the entire armed forces. No, but he's in charge of the special counterterrorism operation that Putin, um, announced. And that gives him power over the armed forces in the three provinces and the counterterrorism operation usually is not announced...

It happens once in a while, but it happens on small territory, like a county in the United States, you know, little district, but this time it's three large provinces, the entire western Russia.Okay. And the KGB chief is in charge of everything there. On top of that, he makes decisions to move troops out of Ukraine, back into Russia, to fight the Ukrainians in Russia. So that gives them control over the troops in Ukraine. This is pure absolute power. Okay.

I couldn't believe Putin did that. Well, something happened because 24 hours passed and Putin fired Bortnikov and place his bodyguard, former bodyguard in charge of the armed forces. You don't. Do. That. You don't change these people in this position pretty much the top power position every 24 hours. That's that shows that you're panicking. It shows that you are not sure about your decisions. You make a choice, you make a decision, and then 24 hours later, you change your mind. You don't do that.

If you're a dictator when you're a strong man, you don't do that, okay? It shows the entire world that Putin either has lost control or he's not assessing the information. Right? He's not, or he's not getting the right information feeds, or something extremely odd is going on. Okay, this is huge, huge.

And, um, no one knows why right now. It's very... not confidential... but it's behind very tightly closed doors. Okay. We will find out sooner or later, because there will be people who will come out and speak about it. But right now, it doesn't matter why. We're seeing the results, and that's enough. Putin is panicking. He runs around and, you know, um, uh, shuffles people of the highest positions. You can't do that. You place that guy in charge and he needs to stay. You need to make a choice so carefully because the guy needs to stay there for years. That's how you keep the stability of your system and Putin has lost it. And this is the most important thing right now. And I am truly surprised that not too many people talking about it.

The balance of power in the Kremlin seems to be getting de-stabilized as a result of the Kursk invasion, and the fact that it's taking Russian armed forces so long to even stop the counter-offensive is really making things worse. Shoigu got demoted before for lying to Putin about kicking Ukraine out of Krynky. And Gerasimov lied to Putin about stopping the Ukraine invasion and pushing Ukraine out, and he's no longer in charge of the army in Russia. (When he says "fires Shoigu",I'm wondering if that was a slip where he meant he fired Gerasimov from being in charge of the army inside Russia. I know Shoigu got demoted, but I'm not aware of him being fired.)

Putin is playing musical army leaders for the army in Russia in a very peculiar and seemingly panicky way. This does not reflect a leader who is in control of the situation. This should be getting more attention than it is, in the media.

a reply to: Arbitrageur

The western media is fixating on other issues. A consequence of the journalism trade going to the dogs.

Regarding K-grad. There has been some discussion there about independence. But I think it won't go anywhere; my take is it is a few people who want to be high rollers and see K-grad becoming another economic morsel within the EU or maybe an economic bridge between the EU and Moscow. That kind of motivation is much different than political dissatisfaction; if anything, I bet they're sorry to see the troops leave because the towns hosting garrisons will lose income.

Cheers

14 August Update

Ukrainian outlet Suspilne reported on August 14 that its sources in the Ukrainian military stated that the tempo of Ukrainian advances in Kursk Oblast has slowed due to the increasing Russian resistance in the direction of Kursk City. Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces are gradually stabilizing the frontline in Kursk Oblast and that unspecified Russian reinforcements are arriving from unspecified areas and are establishing communications with Russian units already in the area.

Commercially available satellite imagery collected by Maxar on August 12 shows a newly dug series of field fortifications, including trenches and anti-vehicle ditches southwest of Lgov along the E38 Lgov-Rylsk-Hlukhiv highway (northwest of Sudzha). Additional satellite imagery published on August 13 and collected between August 6 and 11 shows the recent appearance of field fortifications near the 38K-024 highway just south of Lgov. These new fortifications are about 17 kilometers north of the furthest claimed limit of Ukrainian advances in Kursk Oblast, which suggests that Russian forces are concerned about potential continued and rapid Ukrainian mechanized northward advances within Kursk Oblast.

Ukrainian forces conducted a large series of drone strikes against Russian air bases in Russia on the night of August 13 to 14, damaging several airfields. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky thanked Ukraine's Security Service (SBU), Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR), and Ukrainian military on August 14 for conducting drone strikes against unspecified Russian air bases. Ukrainian outlet Suspilne reported on August 14 that its sources in the SBU stated that the Ukrainian SBU, GUR, Special Operations Forces (SSO), and Unmanned Systems Forces conducted drone strikes against Russian military air bases in Kursk City, Voronezh City, Borisoglebsk in Voronezh Oblast, and Savasleyka in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, and characterized the strike as the largest Ukrainian attack on Russian air bases since the start of the war.

Russian forces advanced north of Kharkiv City and southeast of Pokrovsk.

More at URL above.

Cheers

a reply to: Arbitrageur

Thanks, but F2d5thCavv2 gives updates a lot more consistently than I do, and I appreciate that.

I'd like to think Cav knows just how much I and others appreciate his efforts in almost single-handedly keeping this thread going and for providing us with much needed updates.

Baby steps carp

originally posted by: Oldcarpy2
www.msn.com...

Germany has apparently issued an arrest warrant against a Ukrainian diver for blowing up the Nordstream gas pipeline.

Getting closer carpy

originally posted by: Oldcarpy2
a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

But, but....the US done it.....or the UK....or (insert favourite Western boogyman here).

Quite the circus Biden and former Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski found themselves blaming each other.

m.youtube.com...




Baby steps carpy.

a reply to: Freeborn

Thanks all. It is but a few minutes a day.

Cheers

It seems it is difficult for 'big brother' to acknowledge that 'little brother' has repeatedly kicked them in the nuts. That wasn't part of Vladiboo's master plan. Oh well.

Cheers

originally posted by: F2d5thCavv2
Regarding K-grad. There has been some discussion there about independence. But I think it won't go anywhere; my take is it is a few people who want to be high rollers and see K-grad becoming another economic morsel within the EU or maybe an economic bridge between the EU and Moscow. That kind of motivation is much different than political dissatisfaction; if anything, I bet they're sorry to see the troops leave because the towns hosting garrisons will lose income.

This video talks about a poll showing that 72% of the Kaliningrad population wants independence, though it cautions that scientifically accurate polling is difficult to achieve under Russia's control. And it almost propehetically talks about the war in Ukraine possibly causing Moscow to need the Kaliningrad troops elsewhere, which might remove one of the biggest barriers to independence, all the troops stationed there. It says the independence party wants the region to be called Königsberg for historical reasons, and not the Russified name of Kaliningrad:

Kaliningrad Independence - the 5 minute guide


Transcript starting at 4:40

Could Königsberg become independent? A lot may depend on the war in Ukraine.

A defeated Russia could turn inward, and, as the Wagner Uprising revealed, civil war is certainly possible.

If this happens, the Russian military presence in Kaliningrad could be redeployed internally, possibly to defend the Moscow regime, which would make the region's bid for independence much easier.

A defeated Russia could also lose its grip on Belarus. If Vladimir Lukashenko is overthrown, and a pro-Western government takes power, Koenigsberg would become even more isolated from Moscow's control. All of this is speculation, which is all we can do at this point.

But we do know this inside Kaliningrad, or Königsberg, or Yatarny Krai, there are people who want to be free, independent, and part of Europe.

Let's not forget them.

This video claims Kaliningrad is on the verge of becoming Ukraine 2.0:

Why Kaliningrad Will be Ukraine 2.0

It points out that Kaliningrad is increasingly isolated from Russia. Since Russia invaded Ukraine, Lithuania cut off Russian land access to Kaliningrad, to penalize Russia for their aggression, which made Russia very unhappy. So now Russia has to use the sea to access it, and they can't even do that when their more northern port freezes over in the winter. Lithuanians also don't like that their people have been sent to fight and die on the side of Russia in the Russia-Ukraine war.

It also mentions that Russia was furious that Poland doesn't call it Kaliningrad, Poland refers to some historical name that indicates they oppose the Russification of Kaliningrad which is named after a Russian leader. It was populated by mostly germanic people in WWII and Russia got rid of them and sent ethnic Russians there in another "Russification", in addition to giving it a Russian name. But by now it seems Kaliningrad or Königsberg, or Yatarny Krai, developed their own culture, and apparently most don't want to be part of Russia anymore but want to be the 4th Baltic state with closer ties to Europe.

This goes to show that as in Crimea, just because people are ethnic Russians, it doesn't necessarily follow that they want to be part of Russia under Putin's oppressive and dictatorial regime. Maybe if Russia wasn't so oppressive and allowed more freedoms and didn't send its people to die in a pointless war which only serves the leader's vanity and lust for the glory of restoring the soviet union, those ethnic Russians might actually want to be part of Russia.

This video explains why Kaliningrad has turned from a Russian asset to a Russian liability. Why? Because of the consequences of Russia invading Ukraine, specifically when Finland and Sweden joined NATO, Kaliningrad lost a lot of its utility when Russia was formerly using it as a tool for their saber rattling against NATO. Now that Finland and Sweden are NATO members, as a result of Russia's aggression, Kaliningrad doesn't offer the same advantages it did before as explained in the video which is only 2 days old:

How Will Russia Lose Kaliningrad in 2024

10:50
The French Institute of international relations even said that with Finland and Sweden in NATO, Kaliningrad can't be defended well enough by Russia. Russia's Baltic Fleet in Kaliningrad is also not as important anymore its main job was to defend Kaliningrad but now Kaliningrad isn't that important strategically, so the fleet is more of a cost than a benefit.

An attack by Russia on Estonia Lithuania or Latvia is now much riskier for Russia than before. Kaliningrad is now completely surrounded by NATO, making it a liability for Russia. It used to help Russia Focus its military strength, but now it just adds to the large area Russia needs to defend with its struggling military

I can't say I'm completely sold on those arguments, but they are food for thought, and if Russia sees it that way, they may not even try so hard to hang on to Kaliningrad. They are apparently already pulling some troops out of Kaliningrad, to help in Kursk.

Here's more food for thought. How much would the Russian government need to pay you to deny your son's existence? For the Russian parents seen at 4:10 in this video, apparently it's the equivalent of about 246 USD a month. The son was declared dead, and the parents were receiving about $246 a month. He calls home and says look mom and dad, I'm alive! The parents say "You're not our son!" even after he shows his tattoos to prove he is, because they don't want to stop getting the $246 per month for the loss of their "dead" son.

Russian Teens Sent to War - Captured by the AFU | Kursk Received Humanitarian Aid from Ukraine


Before that, video is shown of Ukraine providing humanitarian aid like food and water to the abandoned Russian citizens in Kursk, that say they never received any evacuation notice. Ukraine is still capturing Russian conscripts who were told reinforcements are not coming any time soon, but you need to stay here and fight to the death. Hundreds are surrendering instead. Putin is shown on camera saying conscripts would not be involved in combat, obviously that was a lie. Ukraine claims to be treating the Russian conscripts better than the Russians treated them. I would think that sounds like Ukraine propaganda, if I hadn't seen video from Russian soldiers themselves about how poorly Russia is treating them, so it is actually believable. Putin's new law is trying to stop those embarrassing videos, we will see if it's successful.

a reply to: Arbitrageur

Yow. They should be careful with name-choosing. Calling it "Koenigsberg" would set off alarm bells, and not just in Moscow. Although, I can understand their wanting to get away from the legacy of communism by choosing to no longer call it after M. I. Kalinin.

One thing to consider is the mentality of the ruling clique in Moscow. Useful or not at the current moment, they will absolutely resist letting regions of Russia go their own way.

Cheers

15 August Update

Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces continued advancing in some areas in Kursk Oblast amid a generally slower tempo of Ukrainian operations in the area.

Russian forces are maintaining their relatively high offensive tempo in Donetsk Oblast, demonstrating that the Russian military command continues to prioritize advances in eastern Ukraine . . .

The Ukrainian General Staff stated on August 14 that Ukraine's Special Operations Forces (SSO), Air Force, Security Service (SBU), and Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) conducted drone strikes against four Russian air bases: Khalino in Kursk City, Savasleyka in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, and Borisoglebsk and Baltimor in Voronezh Oblast.

More at URL above.

Cheers

originally posted by: Imhere
Doesn't seem like kursk has affected the Russian push on the frontlines.

You were right about that, so far. Russia has continued making advances in Ukraine.

Russia has many reserves in its military and also a huge number of combat capable internal troops like MVD units and the National Guard so it was to be expected that this Kursk incursion wouldn’t affect the actual frontline.

Looks like you were wrong if you thought Russia could stop Ukraine with their national guard or military forces other than in Ukraine. So far we haven't seen Russia successfully halt Ukraine's advances in Russia with their military or national guard. Russia has sent several convoys to defend the area, but one of them was destroyed by Ukraine and another one was destroyed by Russian aircraft in "friendly fire". Conscripts were told to fight to the death but they are surrendering by the hundreds instead.

We are now ten days since Ukraine started setting up this "buffer zone" in Russia, and today is the first day I've heard that Russia is finally starting to move troops out of Ukraine to go defend Russia since the forces there can't seem to stop Ukraine, who say they advanced another 1-2 km today. It remains to be seen if the forces Russia is pulling out of Ukraine will be good enough, to defend Russia. If Putin really wanted to defend Russia, he would pull some of his battle-hardened best troops from Ukraine, to fight against the battle-hardened Ukraine troops in Russia, but I don't think Putin is doing that yet because he doesn't want to stop taking Ukraine's territory.

The longer this goes on, the bigger the risk to Putin's regime. I thought Russia would have stopped Ukraine days ago and started pushing Ukraine out, using forces they pulled from the Ukraine front lines. It may turn out to be a mistake that Putin didn't do that sooner, since the longer this goes on, the weaker Putin looks, and showing such weakness is really bad for a dictator.

The performance of Russian military inside Russia has been so dismal that Russian state media is talking about the need to quickly set up "territorial defense forces", but that's the same crazy media where people talk about Russia nuking UK so I don't know if we can believe anything they say. I don't see how they can arm civilians to man the "territorial defense forces" when civilians are prohibited from having guns. What are they going to do, throw rocks at Ukraine? Anyway, the fact they talked about that shows they realize the Russian military is not defending Russian territory adequately, nor is the national guard.

I don't know how good the Russian troops coming from Kaliningrad are, but they wouldn't be battle-hardened like Ukraine's troops in Russia. The troops Russia is finally starting to move out of Ukraine may have battle experience, so they may finally stop Ukraine when they get there. But it looks like Ukraine is planning to stay a while, because they are setting up a military government in Sudzha.

Ukraine opens military office in occupied Kursk region, says it is still advancing

KYIV, Aug 15 (Reuters) -

Ukraine says forces control 82 settlements, still advancing
Ukraine sets up military office inside Russian border
Russia to beef up border defences, says attacks continue
Russia inches closer to Pokrovsk logistics hub in east

Ukraine's top commander said on Thursday Kyiv had set up a military commandant's office in the occupied part of Russia's Kursk region where he said his forces were still advancing, even as Moscow's troops stepped up its offensives in Ukraine's east.

The remarks by Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi were the strongest sign yet that Kyiv's forces plan to dig in after launching a lightning cross-border assault on Russia last week that has opened a new front in the 2-1/2 year-old all-out war.

For anyone that thinks things are going well for Russia, the age of entry into the DOSAAF has been lowered to 14. This training is compulsory.

originally posted by: Threadbarer
For anyone that thinks things are going well for Russia, the age of entry into the DOSAAF has been lowered to 14. This training is compulsory.

Truth is bar the Ukrainian special military operation into Russia, things are going swimmingly right now for Moscow. The eastern front in Ukraine is starting to collapse as Russia's overwhelming advantage in manpower and resources is starting to show fruit...................................

Russia-Ukraine war live: Ukrainians urged to leave city as Russian forces close in at ‘a fast pace’

"Civilians urged to speed up evacuation from Pokrovsk
Military authorities in Pokrovsk, a city in eastern Ukraine, have urged civilians to speed up their evacuation because the Russian army is quickly closing in, the Associated Press reported. Authorities said that Russian troops are advancing at a fast pace." www.theguardian.com...

a reply to: ufoorbhunter

Is there anything left of Pokrovsk?

originally posted by: Oldcarpy2
a reply to: ufoorbhunter

Is there anything left of Pokrovsk?

Russian troops are closing in on the strategic eastern Ukrainian town of Pokrovsk, according to open-source battlefield maps, casting doubts on Ukraine’s hopes that its new offensive into western Russia will prompt Moscow to scale back its attacks elsewhere on the battlefield.

After capturing several villages in the area and pushing along a railway line, Russian forces are now about eight miles from Pokrovsk, one of Ukraine’s main defensive strongholds in the Donetsk region, according to the maps, which are based on combat footage and satellite images.

www.nytimes.com...

This was 2 hours ago.

a reply to: Vermilion

Thanks.

a reply to: Arbitrageur

I thought Russia would have stopped Ukraine days ago

Think Hitler's regime in the last part of the Second World War. Putin and his fellow gangsters are fanatical in their own way.

Cheers