Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 3

originally posted by: Threadbarer
a reply to: Imhere

Ukraine keeps advancing in Russia?

I thought Putin's special military operation was only supposed to take three days.

3 days? According to who? You?

Nice try.

originally posted by: Imhere
3 days? According to who? You?

It was 10 days according to captured Russian documents, apparently approved by Putin. Do you really want to nitpick the difference between 3 days and 10 days when we are into 900 days of the war? 900 days is not much closer to 10 days than it is to 3 days.

Ukraine war: Captured Russian documents reveal Moscow's 10-day plan to take over the country and kill its leaders

A British defence and security think tank has revealed details of Moscow's pre-invasion plan for Ukraine, based on captured Russian documents apparently signed off by Vladimir Putin.

Russia had planned to take over Ukraine over 10 days and annex it by August (of 2022), the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies (RUSI) said.

a reply to: Imhere

I don't think it was meant to go on this long, but yes, no one said three days.

a reply to: Arbitrageur

Yes, I remember that now.

Yeah the “3 days” sayings usually come from low info individuals across social media/internet.

As you won’t find a source on Putin etc saying it.

It probably stemmed/parroted from Gen. Milley saying that and Lukashenko etc.

Shortly before Russian President Vladimir Putin launched his latest invasion of Ukraine, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Mark Milley, reportedly told congressional leaders meeting in closed session that the smaller country would "fall in 72 hours." Welp, here we are, well over a month into that three-day war.

So how did the principal military advisor to the president of the United States get it so wrong?

And, if everything had gone right for Putin, people today might be toasting Milley as a military Nostradamus. But, as if often the case in war, once the shooting starts the dogs of war scatter in all kinds of unpredictable ways. A reasonable issue to raise is: Why didn’t Milley better prepare us for that?

www.heritage.org...

Also

Gen. Milley says Kyiv could fall within 72 hours if Russia decides to invade Ukraine: sources

www.foxnews.com...

a reply to: Arbitrageur

From your source:

"The invasion plan reportedly detailed plots to capture Ukraine's nuclear power plants in order to shelter Russian troops, gain control over the country's energy system, and potentially blackmail European countries with the risk of radiation pollution."

🤔 Interesting.

originally posted by: Imhere
It probably stemmed/parroted from Gen. Milley saying that and Lukashenko etc.

Milley probably expected that huge Russian convoy headed to Kyiv wouldn't run out of fuel, which if they had fuel they should have been able to make Kyiv in 3 days, right? Some stories were saying Russia is really bad at logistics, which may be true, but maybe it was more of a corruption problem. Russia did send fuel trucks along with the convoy that were supposed to keep it refueled on the way to Kyiv, but corruption in the Russian military ended up with much of that fuel being sold on the black market in Belarus before they even entered Ukraine.

The Latest Example of Russian Corruption That Has Hamstrung Moscow’s Invasion

Columns of vehicles heading towards Kyiv on the first days of the February 2022 invasion ran out of fuel, it was reported, primarily because fuel had been sold on the black market in Belarus before the logistic tankers deployed.

On inspecting Russian T-80 battle tanks, destroyed by Ukraine’s anti-tank weapons, Ukrainian troops discovered that the explosive reactive armor (ERA), a series of boxes supposedly filled with layers of metal, rubber and high explosives, had been hollowed out and the valuable explosives stolen - leaving the tanks vulnerable to attack.

Russians selling the explosives out of the tanks explosive armor didn't help either. Plus in more corruption, instead of buying good military grade tires for the military vehicles, they had substituted cheap chinese tires that were failing, and pocketed the difference in cost. It also didn't help that Russia turned on its electronic warfare jammers to try to prevent Ukrainians from communicating updates about the invasion and the location of Russian forces, but unfortunately for Russians, their communications blackout also blacked out their own communications!

It would be interesting to see what Mark Milley could have done with similar forces and equipment which he had trained to be competent and not corrupt, and therefore didn't run out of gas or have vehicles disabled by cheap flat chinese tires. Maybe Milley was thinking if he had similar forces, and didn't run out of fuel, he could get the convoy from Belarus to Kyiv in 3 days, and thought Russia was competent enough to do the same. It was really a learning experience for everybody, including Mark Milley, to see just how corrupt and incompetent the Russian military had become, and how this manifested on the battlefield.

originally posted by: Arbitrageur

originally posted by: Imhere
It probably stemmed/parroted from Gen. Milley saying that and Lukashenko etc.

It would be interesting to see what Mark Milley could have done with similar forces and equipment which he had trained to be competent and not corrupt, and therefore didn't run out of gas or have vehicles disabled by cheap flat chinese tires. Maybe Milley was thinking if he had similar forces, and didn't run out of fuel, he could get the convoy from Belarus to Kyiv in 3 days, and thought Russia was competent enough to do the same. It was really a learning experience for everybody, including Mark Milley, to see just how corrupt and incompetent the Russian military had become, and how this manifested on the battlefield.

lol

So according to the same logic, perhaps the Belarusian president thought the same and that Belarus could take Ukraine within “3 days”.

As I mentioned previously, President Lukashenko also remarked on Ukraine potentially falling within 3 days.

Not just Milley.


x.com...

According to Julian Ropcke, Russia has fully captured Ivanivka and Lysschyne in Donetsk, and entered Hrodivka from the East

The Russian invasion army fully captured #Ivanivka and #Lyssychne in Donetsk oblast and
entered #Hrodivka from the East. All developments confirmed by Russian and
Ukrainian sources (RusMoD + DeepState).

Apparently, Zelensky decided that the best defense is offense. And turned away from the frontline in the East.

Interesting strategy.

originally posted by: Imhere
So according to the same logic, perhaps the Belarusian president thought the same and that Belarus could take Ukraine within “3 days”.

You mean Lukashenko leading the Belarus army? Belarus doesn't have as many forces as Russia, so no it's not the same logic.

But any competent commander in charge of competent forces might think they could get a convoy from Belarus to Kyiv in 3 days, given the vast inferiority in numbers of Ukraine's forces, if that's what you mean, though I'm not sure if Lukashenko is a competent commander. Milley was a competent commander, so again by that competent commander measure also, it doesn't seem to be the same logic.

originally posted by: Arbitrageur

originally posted by: Imhere
So according to the same logic, perhaps the Belarusian president thought the same and that Belarus could take Ukraine within “3 days”.

You mean Lukashenko leading the Belarus army? Belarus doesn't have as many forces as Russia, so no it's not the same logic.

But any competent commander in charge of competent forces might think they could get a convoy from Belarus to Kyiv in 3 days, given the vast inferiority in numbers of Ukraine's forces, if that's what you mean, though I'm not sure if Lukashenko is a competent commander. Milley was a competent commander, so again by that competent commander measure also, it doesn't seem to be the same logic.

Perhaps Milley thought he can take it within 72 hours, and President Lukashenko thought he can take it within 4 days.

Point is, both Milley and Lukashenko said within “3 days”

The “3 days” has been specifically mentioned and trending for a while now across MSM/social media/internet. And we all know it.

It’s mainly from low info individuals who probably think Putin said it. Which he didn’t.

Else where did the magical number “3 days” start trending from?

originally posted by: Threadbarer
a reply to: Imhere

Ukraine keeps advancing in Russia?

I thought Putin's special military operation was only supposed to take three days.

For example lol

Seeing Zelensky probably won’t be able to hold ground after the incursion by Kursk, much less with multiple strategic points collapsing in the east past months. This is more of an accurate look on the dire situation and the need for the distraction/Kursk incursion.

According to Ukranews, the Secretary of Parliament Committee on National Security, Kostenko, has called for the mobilization age to be lowered to the age of 20.

Roman Kostenko, Secretary of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Security, Defense and Intelligence, Member of Parliament from the Holos faction, is in favor of lowering the mobilization age to 20 years.

He said this in an interview with Ukrainian Pravda, Ukrainian News Agency reports.

"I myself have been in the army since the age of 17 and I will say this: we are not talking about 18, but I believe that we should have a conscription age from 20 to 50. Everyone after that can be mobilized at their own will, but not in combat units. If we want to properly provide combat units, so that healthy people go and can perform combat tasks, this should be the age range of 20-50 years," he said.

In his opinion, a million-strong army in Ukraine is not enough, because "we are fighting with one million personnel against such a large country as the russian federation."

ukranews.com...

a reply to: Imhere
Putin is apparently keeping his troops in Ukraine, and not moving them to defend Russia. Yet.
So he's making some progress in Ukraine, but according to the video below, Ukraine has taken more Russian territory in one week, than Russia has taken since the beginning of 2024. Putin's strategy is a risky one, since if his first priority is not defending the Russian homeland, he will look weak and his the propaganda he spouted at the beginning of the invasion was that he was doing it to "protect Russia". Already 70,000 Kursk residents are being or have been evacuated, and there's talk that up to 181,000 Russians may need to be evacuated when other provinces are also considered.

So far Russia has been relying a lot on aviation gliding bombs, and lancet drones to take out Ukraine's armored vehicles in Russia, but the Russia forces seem to have not stopped Ukraine's invasion. I think if Putin really wants to stop Ukraine, he will need to move some of his best troops out of Ukraine and send them to defend Russia, but he apparently hasn't done that, yet.

Apparently, Zelensky decided that the best defense is offense. And turned away from the frontline in the East.

Interesting strategy.

As I said before, I think Ukraine realized when their 2023 summer offensive failed, they can't push Russia out of Ukraine, so they need a new path to victory which is a regime change in the Kremlin. If Putin had kicked Ukraine out of Kursk as quickly as they did the partisan forces in the past, the Kursk invasion would have just been another blip in the war. But Putin is too focused on taking Ukraine towns to realize his regime may be crumbling. In fact the Russian on youtube's "Inside Russia" channel said that Putin just signed his own death sentence by changing the balance of power that allowed him to remain in control for the last several decades. I don't know if that will be the straw that broke the camel's back or not, but it's an interesting observation/prediction, from this video:

Putin Is Afraid Of Ukrainian Troops Advancing! The Chief Of General Staff is Replaced With KGB Boss

33:42
dictator to stay dictator must build his own systems... system of checks and balances. Otherwise, he will quickly loses his absolute power to someone bigger and stronger, someone bigger and stronger comes in and just simply grabs power takes it over.
Both the USSR and later Putin's Russia have had such system of checks and balances the inner one, in both countries there was a triangle:

-the Army
-the KGB
-the federal police

and the role of the dictator, the strong man the man in charge, you know, the czar, was, has been, to be in the middle, and balance this fragile system. All three organizations must be in a state of total complete and everlasting war with each other, and they must be equal in power. If one agency turns to dethrone dictator and to install own men, other two agencies must defend dictator. I think you get the idea.

This system of checks and balances is dictator's insurance for long rule. It's dictatorship 101 so to speak. So what happened in Russia yesterday, this fragile balance of power was lost. The KGB has gotten control over the Army, the strongest force in Russia. The federal police is weak and so demoralized, that it cannot put up a fight. it's not a player anymore.

So it was the KGB against the army. KGB has won. Putin knows better than that. He knows that he signed his own death sentence. Perhaps he received some promises. Perhaps some kind of assurance from the KGB guy, we'll never know that, but the fact is that Putin has broken the balance of power that he had been creating for the past 24 years and it will backfire I guarantee you that.

So how accurate is this analysis? He's Russian and I think he knows Russia way better than I do. I can't vouch for his analysis or prediction, but I think it's interesting. I think something along these lines is what Ukraine was going for with the Kursk invasion, some way to destabilize the current regime.

There's other interesting information in the video. At about 7 minutes, a video by Russians shows them building a tent camp big enough to hold 100 people. The tents look decent enough, but the bunk beds look very uncomfortable with a thin foam cushion for a mattress, and a thin blanket which is nowhere thick enough to survive the coming cold weather. Then Konstantin says, imagine enough of those being built to house 70,000 to 181,000 evacuees, they probably don't have that many tents or other emergency supplies. And he says the $112 equivalent (10,000 rubles) the evacuees get from Putin, is not going to solve their problems, though at first he says it will, and then admits that was a terribly timed April Fools' joke.

Anyway he says there's little to no progress in removing Ukraine from Kursk, not surprising since Russia's good troops are STILL in Ukraine. Even though Gerasimov assured Putin several days ago he was pushing Ukraine out. I cannot confirm the Inside Russia claim that Putin has "sacked Gerasimov", though Gerasimov is obviously not in charge of the operations inside Russian territory, those are currently under the direction of the FSB or what Konstain refers to as "KGB", the old name in soviet times. Is Gerasimov still in charge of the Russian army in Ukraine? I'm not sure after listening to that video, he said Gerasimov being sacked isn't really covered in the media, so I'm not sure how to confirm that claim, or maybe it only applies inside Russia.

Denys Davydov also has an interesting update about the situation in Kursk:

Update from Ukraine | Ukraine Takes more Ground | Humiliation of Putin | Fake Dictator

Ukraine is silent about operational details, and is counting on "fog of war" to make it difficult for Russians to determine where the "front line" is, if there even is a front line. Ukraine will move several kilometers further, tear down Russian flags and put up Ukraine flags, then withdraw. So Russia thinks Ukraine might still be there, and they have had numerous "friendly fire" incidents where Russian aircraft fire on Russian armored vehicles thinking they are from Ukraine. The confusion seems to be working to Ukraine's advantage. Denys shows some of that friendly fire stuff, but you have to go to his telegram channel to see more, because youtube restricts war content.

13 August Update

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and other senior Ukrainian officials provided updates about the ongoing Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast and outlined several Ukrainian objectives of the operations in the area.

Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces continue to advance in Kursk Oblast amid Russian attempts to stabilize the frontline in the area.

Russian forces recently advanced near Chasiv Yar and southwest of Donetsk City, and Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Siversk direction and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.

More at URL above.

Cheers

www.msn.com...

Germany has apparently issued an arrest warrant against a Ukrainian diver for blowing up the Nordstream gas pipeline.

a reply to: Oldcarpy2

One wonders what motivation the Ukrainians would have had for hitting a Russian economic asset ...

Cheers

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

But, but....the US done it.....or the UK....or (insert favourite Western boogyman here).

Rapid mobil warfare, rapidly changing logistics Russia is in a pinch right now.

If they can bulk up on troops yea they can stunt and push back Ukraine but how much land will Ukraine take before that.

Task and purpose is reporting Ukraine brought a bunch of engineer equipment so f'd if I know what the purpose is.

Bottom line it could potentially change the direction of the war.

a reply to: Irishhaf

Fairly clear that Russia can't do mobile warfare. Ukraine can.

Trenches and WW1 tactics.

Mother Russia is invaded and seems impotent.

Ukraine has brought the War to Russia.

Putin looking weak.

Not a good look.

originally posted by: Irishhaf
Task and purpose is reporting Ukraine brought a bunch of engineer equipment so f'd if I know what the purpose is.

Bottom line it could potentially change the direction of the war.

It's got a better chance of changing the direction of the war than the trench warfare going on for the last year.

Ukraine is digging in and building defense lines so my guess is that's what they are using the engineering equipment for, digging trenches, etc.

I think Ukraine's defense lines were somewhat weak in Ukraine because they were hesitant to mess up their own country with countless mines everywhere, and the danger those could pose for their own people for decades to come, but maybe Ukraine won't be as hesitant to use lots of mines for the defense lines they are building in Russia. Russia certainly put huge amounts of mines in their defense lines in Ukraine; that's part of the reason the 2023 Ukraine counter-offensive failed, maybe the main reason, because they had no de-mining equipment that could deal with that many mines, some of them triple-stacked anti-tank mines.