Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 3

a reply to: Freeborn

I think Ukraine are showing how stretched Russian forces are now and also that border regions occupied by Freedom of Russia Legion earlier in the year are still vulnerable to occupation , no doubt the intelligence acquired by FRL has proved helpful to the Ukrainian assault.

The big change here is happening because the West has untied Ukraine's hands in regard to using our weapons against Russia , now the gloves are off.

I believe the Russian people will see this as another failure by Putin and his Defence ministry , things are so bad now they can't even protect Russia's border regions with as many as 70.000 refugees having to be moved to temporary accommodation because of the fighting and the cooler Autumn weather due to start around the middle of September.

Personally I think this is a masterstroke by Ukraine , long may it continue.

originally posted by: Freeborn
a reply to: gortex

I can't criticise Ukraine for fighting back like this.

However, two points.
It could easily strengthen Russian resolve. Support may have been relatively weak when Russia was/is the aggressor....invading Russian territory could easily boost support for Putin and his invasion.

Secondly; I have no doubt Putin will spin this as evidence of NATO's threat to Russia and of its intentions to invade Russia or break it up.

If Russians believe their own country is under threat then I suspect they will prove to be a much fiercer and committed foe than what they have been so far.

Well NATO is supplying weapons of war.

Ukrainian armed forces were also limited to firing 2,000 shells a day, according to the UK-based think tank, the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi).

In contrast, Russian forces were firing up to 10,000 shells a day, Rusi said. It said Russia gets almost three million shells a year from its own factories and from North Korea.

www.bbc.com...

Another point of view:

General Sir Richard Barrons has told the BBC there is "a serious risk" of Ukraine losing the war this year.

The reason, he says, is "because Ukraine may come to feel it can't win".

"And when it gets to that point, why will people want to fight and die any longer, just to defend the indefensible?"
Ukraine is not yet at that point.

But its forces are running critically low on ammunition, troops and air defences. Its much-heralded counter-offensive last year failed to dislodge the Russians from ground they had seized and now Moscow is gearing up for a summer offensive.

www.bbc.com...

I'm not too sure of Ukrainian military feeling it can't win, I just watched Zelensky in a meeting with his top military and they all appeared to be in it until the end.

originally posted by: Oldcarpy2
a reply to: Imhere

"Doesn't seem like kursk has affected the Russian push on the frontlines."


Seeing as how that was in January....

Nice try.

Not sure about that January article, but it’s on the advancing frontline in the direction of Pokorvsk.

Out northwest of Avdiivka.

You can see it on “ISW” in red now as it being captured recently.

originally posted by: Arbitrageur
More good news for Ukraine.
While analysts have noted that the Russian response to Ukraine's invasion seems somewhat chaotic and unorganized, possibly due to poor training and poor communication, things may be about to get even worse for Russia thanks to a new Russian law that Putin just signed.

Some of you may have seen numerous videos made by Russian soldiers, whining and complaining about the terrible conditions they are fighting in, and that they have shortages of food and ammunition. Most recently, a number of these have come from the area of Vovchansk in the north. For obvious reasons, Putin does not like these videos going viral and pointing out to the world his morale and poor logistics and supply problems. So, his solution is to sign a law passed by the Russian Duma to take away the cell phones of the soldiers, so they will stop making these videos which are highly embarassing for Putin.

Russian military commanders enforce strict phone ban to conceal frontline struggles and silence dissent
Apparently mobile phone use was already banned, but Russian commanders were supposed to involve military courts in dealing with violations, but the new law gives Russian commanders greater powers to deal with violations without involving military courts.

Why is this good news for Ukraine? What Putin and the lawmakers don't seem to realize (or maybe they do and don't care?), is that those phones were used for a lot more than whining about the poor conditions and supply shortages and huge loss percentages in the meat wave attacks. Russians soldiers have been using the phones for communications with other soldiers to coordinate efforts, and less phones means less communication, which is good for Ukraine. Poor communication by Russian soldiers in Kursk is probably one reason Ukraine has been able to advance so far so fast.

The US has been sending secure communications equipment to Ukraine, and I would expect Russia developed their own, but maybe not enough of it to go around and maybe the chip shortage from sanctions hampers Russia's ability to produce more, which is why they have been using phones to communicate.

I dunno about all that. Ukrainian intelligence probably loves having all of that unencrypted comms to intercept with soliders using their cell phones to coordinate movement. Not having that wealth of intelligence anymore has its drawbacks.

It's curious that this isn't getting more coverage in US media. Of course every major news site has an article on it buried somewhere on their page, but I switch back and forth between the major cable news networks a lot and I've barely seen this mentioned in passing a few times. This seems like it should be a bigger story, whether it's successful or not.

ETA: I for one hope this somehow leads to a lasting ceasefire, as I think there's been more than enough death and I don't see a whole lot of good coming out of this dragging on for another 10 years, no matter who wins.

I'm just skeptical because I'm old enough to remember all the hype around the last Ukraine offensive. Granted this one moved further in the first few hours than the last one moved in a month, so it's already more successful by that measure. Distance traveled isn't equivalent to measure of success in military operations, though. Time will tell if this yields any meaningful effects beyond "We embarrassed Putin!"

a reply to: Imhere

Well, I see you didn't post a source so where did you get that from?

a reply to: gortex

Militarily I think its a great move.

But Putin will spin this as a direct attack by NATO.
Historically Russian forces have been quite flakey when fighting in foreign wars when it starts getting bogged down and difficult - WWI and Afghanistan.
But they are a different animal when their homeland is directly threatened by a foreign power and that's exactly how this is going to be portrayed to the Russian people by The Kremlin.

a reply to: Freeborn

Yes.

He could use this as a justification for his SMO.

"See, I told you they were a threat to the Motherland backed by NATO"?

Or, he looks fatally weakened.

We'll see, I suppose.

Must be bloody well embarrassing, though.

a reply to: Imhere

Not sure about that January article, but it’s on the advancing frontline in the direction of Pokorvsk.

How soon is now ?

a reply to: alldaylong

Yep. Busted.

a reply to: Oldcarpy2

We'll see, I suppose.

Yeah, guess so mate.
I was just wondering aloud about what MAY happen.

Must be bloody well embarrassing, though.

I think he's definitely got a bit of a bloody nose and a bruised ego.

Might not be that long till we see a new round of Russian General's falling down stairs and out of windows....

a reply to: Freeborn

FSB now seems to be in charge.

"This Organisation does not tolerate failure".

Strokes white cat....

originally posted by: Oldcarpy2
a reply to: Freeborn

FSB now seems to be in charge.

"This Organisation does not tolerate failure".

Strokes white cat....

Russian troops surrendering on Russian soil. How humiliating is that ?

Next time Putin may have better luck sending in The Salvation Army.

a reply to: alldaylong

Are there any Spetznaz left?

a reply to: Oldcarpy2

Actually fully trained combat bad arses... no I dont think there is beyond the ones that retired.

They all got fed into the meat grinder trying frontal assaults on well defended positions.

Not that Ukraine leadership was any better...

originally posted by: Oldcarpy2
a reply to: alldaylong

Are there any Spetznaz left?

Only bits of them ?

a reply to: alldaylong

Dad's Army?

a reply to: Imhere
ISW has a lot of maps, so I'm not sure what ISW map you're looking at without any link, but the ISW map I'm looking at shows Avdiivka in red, which was captured about February 18, 2024, so at least on the ISW map I see, red does not mean captured recently.

You can find the date a town was captured more easily on the Deep state map, at least that works better for me than the ISW map, but they should be pretty close.

originally posted by: YourFaceAgain
I dunno about all that. Ukrainian intelligence probably loves having all of that unencrypted comms to intercept with soliders using their cell phones to coordinate movement. Not having that wealth of intelligence anymore has its drawbacks.

You make a good point, Ukraine might miss that intelligence, almost as much as they will miss broadcasting calls of Russian soldiers back to their families whining about how bad things are on the Russian front lines and how low morale is.

But I'm still not sure how strictly the new law will be followed, because as I said, mobile phone use was already banned before the new law, and they used them anyway. But I would not want to be the Russian commander whose soldier phones home now saying how bad things are when Putin hears the new message. Putin took away the commanders' excuses for not dealing with this problem, and he doesn't want these calls to continue to leak because they make Putin look so bad.

originally posted by: Oldcarpy2
a reply to: alldaylong

Dad's Army?[/quote

Vladimir Mainwaring

Of the Moscow Platoon.

a reply to: alldaylong

Vlad's Army?

"Don't Panic"?