Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 3

a reply to: Arbitrageur

That Girken quote is probably a distortion for dramatic effect. I always thought of the Russians as cool and calculating, but they seem to be quite emotional drama mamas.

Cheers

originally posted by: worldstarcountry
a reply to: Arbitrageur
hey man, its all good. Ukraine made a nice surprise attack, and the media will hype it up and exaggerate the same exact gains for three weeks in short video clips pretending the archive footage represents new gains as they always do. What is amusing, is how quickly this will fade into the background, like every other endeavor when the other shoe drops. And then the thread will go slow... again ... until the next PR victory if any are left available after this hail mary gambit ... like always...

True.

We all know Zelensky is running out of men. It was inevitable. Seeing that it’s indisputable that the eastern frontlines have been collapsing past weeks/months.

The Kursk incursion was a desperate attempt to slow the Russian momentum there and divert em to Kursk. Which obviously hasn’t been working.

If anything we’re clearly seeing more Russian advancements towards Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk etc.

We’ll see if Zelensky’s rendition of “battle of the bulge” gamble will pay off coming up.

They tried it in Belgorod months ago and what they got in return was negative real estate where Russia currently has a foothold now by Vovchansk etc.

Georgiy Zakrevskiy, the founder and leader of the "Paladin" paramilitary group has called for citizens and Russian military to rise up against Putin , he's calling for a second march on Moscow.

After the events in the Kursk region, the leader of the small PMC "Paladin", Georgy Zakrevskiy, announced a new march on Moscow and called on citizens and military personnel of the Russian Federation to join them in order to resist Putin's criminal regime.

Resembling the reincarnation of Prigozhin, Zakrevsky has long been haunted by the laurels of the owner of the Wagner PMC. Previously, Zakrevsky was a non-public figure, but after the murder of Prigozhin, he came out of the shadows and repeatedly sharply criticized the Russian authorities for the failures of the "special military operation" and the collapse of the army, calling Putin the culprit for all Russia's failures

Speaking in a video released on the "War Union Paladin" YouTube channel, Zakrevskiy declared: "Our country is not just on the brink of disaster; we are already in disaster. Drones are flying all over central Russia, up to Moscow and St. Petersburg. They even attacked the Kremlin. Our Black Sea fleet is being decimated as if we are a third-rate country, not a great power with a large fleet. Our aviation is practically not working because it is also being worn out. We are stagnant at the positions we reached over two years ago, and in some places, we have even retreated. The population is dying out, becoming impoverished, and turning to drink, and nobody cares. They only manage to bring in more migrants. All of this has been orchestrated by the so-called president—'the great' Putin."

Zakrevskiy emphasized that this situation cannot continue, citing a level of incompetence that "cannot even be imagined." He called on everyone to join their union to save the country. “The point of no return has already been passed. It will be very difficult regardless, but the longer this continues, the worse it will get,” he stressed.

He openly criticized the current power structure, describing them as a bunch of rogues and sycophants. “They present some herd as the future of Russia, and today’s people who have seized power in my country are simply complete scum who appoint their own kind.”
www.uawire.org...#

By losing parts of Russia Putin has shown he is no longer the strong leader he once was and his mistakes have cost their country a generation of young men and Russian territory , the next Russian revolution approaches.

originally posted by: Arbitrageur
a reply to: ufoorbhunter
It doesn't look much like a jewel anymore:

Drone footage shows Bakhmut in ruins

They rebuilt the place after they pushed the Axis powers out in the 1940's. I guess they'll do it again. Does look a mess right now

a reply to: gortex

I suspect putin would nuke russia to keep power.

a reply to: yuppa

It seems to me if Putin resorts to the use of nuclear weapons he will become a marked man that better like life in a bunker for the foreseeable future.

Thats not retaining power but would seem to equate to a form of retirement.

originally posted by: yuppa
a reply to: gortex

I suspect putin would nuke russia to keep power.

He may give that order but would it be carried out , I doubt it.

Yesterdays man.

originally posted by: andy06shake
a reply to: yuppa

It seems to me if Putin resorts to the use of nuclear weapons he will become a marked man that better like life in a bunker for the foreseeable future.

Thats not retaining power but would seem to equate to a form of retirement.

True. Him and his close people in a bunker. lol. could make it a prison.

originally posted by: ufoorbhunter

originally posted by: Arbitrageur
a reply to: ufoorbhunter
It doesn't look much like a jewel anymore:

Drone footage shows Bakhmut in ruins

They rebuilt the place after they pushed the Axis powers out in the 1940's. I guess they'll do it again. Does look a mess right now

It seems to me like Putin's workforce is a little too busy making tanks, bombs, and shells to rebuild many cities now. If Putin has extra money and workers, which I don't think he does, they should be repairing Russia's failing infrastructure first, or some Russians will be freezing again this winter.

I expect it will be rebuilt eventually, but I am not sure if Putin will live to see it. This wasn't part of the 10-day plan Putin signed off on to kill Zelensky and install his own puppet leader.

Judging by the videos coming out lately, there’s places in the east already getting rebuilt quickly. Faster than some natural disaster zones out in the world

Mariupol about a year ago during Putin’s visit.



Mariupol more recently.



Mariupol was basically a warzone and it already looks better, safer and more developed than places in Detroit and Baltimore for example.

a reply to: Imhere
Mariupol was one of the first cities levelled. There was still labor available then, before migrant workers realized they could be sent to the front lines to die in Putin's pointless war, and didn't want to come any more for that reason.

But look at what's happened to the labor market in the interim:
-Putin had a partial mobilization of hundreds of thousands of working age men, brought into the military.
-During the mobilization maybe a million men left Russia to avoid the mobilization, so that was a double whammy on the workforce.
-A triple whammy on the workforce for things like construction, was Putin creating a huge demand for labor in his war factories where he more than doubled his war budget, I think it was something like tripled from 2021 to 2024.

If you doubt this just look at Russia raising interest rates to 18% to try to control inflation which is maybe 9%, more than double the 4% target.

If that's not bad enough, Putin is losing about 1000 people a day in the war from death and disabilities, in addition to all the other losses.
Putin knows he's got population problems which is why he's telling Russian women they need to have 8 babies each, but half the country says they have trouble paying for basic necessities like food, so they are not anywhere close to having 8 babies each.

In fact both Russia and Ukraine had serious population problems before the war even began, and Putin's war has exacerbated those problems for both countries which will be felt for generations, with too many older people drawing pensions from too few younger people, and too few younger people having enough babies.

Russia is Running Out of People

See the "Russian Cross" explained at 6 minutes in the video.

6:36
As the economist Nicholas Eberstadt once observed, the last 16 years of Soviet rule saw 11 million more births than deaths. Over the next sixteen years, it saw 12 million more deaths than births. These are war-like casualties in peacetime.

So the problems with Russia's population date all the way back to the fall of the soviet union, when they completely flipped from having more births than deaths, to having more deaths than births. And if you figure out the ages of those people when the birth rate fell so much, it turns out to be the same age ranges Putin needs to fight his war and man his factories.

If you don't believe me that Russia's got a serious demographic problem, you don't have to take my word for it, Putin even said so:

12:59
As early as 2006, Putin declared the demographic crisis to be Russia’s “most important problem.” Two decades later, he continues to say similar things, most recently on his trip to Anadyr. And this isn’t just empty rhetoric.

So what does Putin do in 2022? He turns his crisis into a cataclysm:

A Russia without Russians? Putin’s disastrous demographics

Why would a leader who has proclaimed demography to be one of the most serious threats to a nation’s future launch an unprovoked war against a neighboring country that was a significant source of labor before 2014? We may never be able to answer this. We can conclude that Putin has turned a daunting crisis into a cataclysm.

More evidence of Russian conscript troops surrendering on mass in the Kursk region , Kadyrovites also captured.

Large number of Russian captives surprised Ukrainians: "We're taking them out several times a day".

a reply to: gortex

Ooft.

Some of the poor sods look to be borderline malnourished and poorly equipped.

I dont think i would want to be going back to the Russian lines or that kind of forced existence.

originally posted by: gortex
Large number of Russian captives surprised Ukrainians: "We're taking them out several times a day".

"Osama bin Laden is a menace. We will take him out."
-President George W Bush.

They are not actually killing them, they want to exchange them.
"We're taking them to Ukraine in several trips a day". is what is meant in the context of the video, but before watching the video, the context is not clear, could be interpreted as killing, it is a war after all.

Russia is still holding some of Ukraine's prisoners from the Azov battalion, and Ukraine really wants them back. Maybe they will have enough Russian prisoners now to bargain to get them back. The Chechen prisoners are valuable too, I guess Putin doesn't want another uprising in Chechnya right now due to those prisoners not being returned, he has his hands more than full already.

17 August Update

The Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast and Russian offensive operations in eastern Ukraine are not in themselves decisive military operations that will win the war. Both Russian and Ukrainian forces lack the capability to conduct individual decisive war-winning operations and must instead conduct multiple successive operations with limited operational objectives that are far short of victory, but that in aggregate can achieve strategic objectives.

Ukrainian forces advanced within Chasiv Yar, and Russian forces recently marginally advanced near Kreminna, Pokrovsk, and Donetsk City.

More at URL above.

Cheers

a reply to: Imhere

Chasiv Yar?

Ukraine is advancing.

Meanwhile, Russia is making "creeping" and "marginal" advances on the Eastern front.

At enormous cost of men and materiel.

www.understandingwar.org...

You seem to take delight in and cheerlead for Russia throwing poor sods at Ukrainian positions for the sake of achieving marginal and creeping advances in WW1 type manner.

This is, to put it mildly, deeply sad.

originally posted by: Oldcarpy2
a reply to: Imhere

Chasiv Yar?

Ukraine is advancing.

Meanwhile, Russia is making "creeping" and "marginal" advances on the Eastern front.

At enormous cost of men and materiel.

www.understandingwar.org...

You seem to take delight in and cheerlead for Russia throwing poor sods at Ukrainian positions for the sake of achieving marginal and creeping advances in WW1 type manner.

This is, to put it mildly, deeply sad.

You mean the more limited Ukrainian poor sods getting thrown in the grinder?

Did you look at the “ISW” map today? Look in the direction of Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk in Donetsk.

Zelensky is losing more territory than advancing there. Hence they had to pull the Kursk incursion trying to divert Russian forces away from Donetsk to there.

Which so far, hasn’t been working. As arbitrageur mentioned recently.

a reply to: Imhere

"Ukrainian forces advanced within Chasiv Yar, and Russian forces recently marginally advanced near Kreminna, Pokrovsk, and Donetsk City."

Keep on supping the Kremlin Kool stuff to get your jollies.

a reply to: Imhere

A kilometre a day, keeps the Russkies away.

originally posted by: Oldcarpy2
a reply to: Imhere

A kilometre a day, keeps the Russkies away.

In your opinion maybe. Look at the “ISW” map it’s not exactly slow pace lately lol