Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 3

a reply to: Imhere

It does look like The Crimea is lost.
It'll take something drastic to happen for that to change...but who knows what the future holds?
And as I said, Russia does have past history with regards to throwing the towel in when things get drawn out and tough.

What's your problem with that?

Because Zelensky tried last year, with the TikTok “hyped” summer offensive, which fell flat. And Robotyne fell back in Russian hands not long ago.

I don't think anyone will deny that last years offensive wasn't as successful as some hoped.
But if you want to talk about spectacular failings lets look at Putin's failed advance on Kyiv, the dramatic failure of his intended Blitzkrieg like effort to overrun Ukraine in a matter of days and now being caught up in a drawn out, WWI like war of attrition that is seeing thousands upon thousands of his countrymen die for no purpose whatsoever other than his egotistical desire for a Greater Russia and a Great epithet.

Trump is a complete twat so no-one here would be in the least bit surprised if he sells Ukraine down the river just so he can chummy up to his mate Putin.

As I said, its not up to the US/UK/NATO or anyone else to force Ukraine into negotiations - for negotiations read complete capitulation.
That's Ukraine's choice and no-one else's.

Article 5 is for NATO nations - Ukraine isn't a member of NATO.

Denials?
Like denying Putin invaded a non-threatening neighbour...a neighbour his country had sworn to respect their independence and not invade?
Like denying Putin is a de-facto dictator who brutally suppresses all domestic opposition and is diametrically opposed to the values of Freedom of Speech, thought, opinion and belief that so many of his sycophants here on ATS allege to hold so dear?
Like denying that Putin could stop all the senseless killing and suffering in an instant by calling an immediate ceasefire and withdrawing to the previously recognised borders?
Like denying The Kremlin provoked, agitated and manipulated this whole sorry # show in an effort to justify their invasion in order to steal land, eliminate Ukrainian culture and restore some sort imaginary lost glory?

I could go on but I'm sure I've bored the tits off everyone who's managed to read this far.

originally posted by: BernnieJGato
a reply to: Imhere

Since you’re going back to 1991’, we can also go back to the 1950’s when Khrushchev gifted Crimea to Ukraine.

here's something interesting, and just goes to show the extent of the lies spewed by russia now. note the reason given by khrushchev for giving Crimea to Ukraine.

from your link,

Taking into account the integral character of the economy, the territorial proximity and the close economic and cultural ties between the Crimea Province and the Ukrainian SSR, the Presidium of the USSR Supreme Soviet decrees:

so in 1954 khrushchev and Ukraine all believed that Crimea / Crimean people were closer to Ukraine than russia.

i guess it's just in the eyes of which ever tyrant / tyrannical government leaders / leader who is in charge on how close Crimean people are to Ukraine.
according to the leader / leaders in russia in 2014 all the Crimean people wanted to be russians.

Moving forward to 21’ in Kherson.

Speaking about the people there feeling more closer/identity with Ukraine than Russia:

A "City Profile", part of the SCORE (Social Cohesion and Reconciliation)[28] Ukraine 2021 proje try ct funded by USAID, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), and the European Union, concluded that "more than 80% of citizens in Kherson city feel their locality is a good place to live, work, and raise a family".

This was despite a low level of trust in the local authorities in whom corruption was perceived to be high. It also found that, while more inclined to express support for co-operation with Russia than for membership of the EU, "citizens in Kherson feel attached to their Ukrainian identity" .[29]

en.wikipedia.org...

Hmm, points back to the 2014 maiden coup where a duly elected president was basically overthrown/taken over.

And all hell broke loose from there.

Prompted Russia securing Crimea without a shot fired.

Which the new Ukraine regime shut off the water supply to the Crimean population in 2014 for 8 years, until it was restored back by Russia in March 22’.

The protests were sparked by President Viktor Yanukovych's sudden decision not to sign the European Union–Ukraine Association Agreement, instead choosing closer ties to Russia and the Eurasian Economic Union.

en.wikipedia.org...

Which Victoria Nuland was dispatched and had her head popped up there at the time. And is/was with her husband on the board of “ISW” Institute for the Study of War.


That F2d5thCavv2 always quotes as updates here daily.


This is ATS after all. Where balanced knowledge and depth on a topic is basically one of the building blocks here

lol

Putin wants nothing less than Ukraine total subjection

This what Biden says at 5:13. This is false. Russia does want to keep Crimea with a buffer zone along the boarder. It is Biden that is pushing for Ukraine total subjection by going on about Article 5.

We know Putin wont stop at Ukraine.

5:30. So Biden won't be stopping at Ukraine. Hungry is worried, Belarus and Poland getting more tense.

a reply to: Imhere

From your own source:

"Protesters opposed what they saw as widespread government corruption, abuse of power, human rights violations,[91] and the influence of oligarchs.[92] Transparency International named Yanukovych as the top example of corruption in the world.[93] The violent dispersal of protesters on 30 November caused further anger.[5] Euromaidan was the largest democratic mass movement in Europe since 1989[94] and led to the 2014 Revolution of Dignity."

Your "duly elected president" was a massively corrupt stooge for Russia.

Still nothing from you on the Children's Hospital attack?

a reply to: Imhere

"You have to remember Ukraine has less man power than Russia. And the more this drags on the more it’ll get worse where Zelensky will scream for article 5 coming up. If he hasn’t done so already."

Article 5?

Ukraine is not a member of NATO.

9 July Update

Ukrainian forces conducted a series of drone strikes against Russian energy and military infrastructure in Belgorod, Kursk, Rostov, Astrakhan, and Volgograd oblasts overnight on July 8 to 9. Sources in Ukrainian intelligence told Ukrainian media that Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) and Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) conducted drone strikes against the Akhtubinsk military airfield in Astrakhan Oblast, an electrical substation in Rostov Oblast, and an oil depot in Kalach-on-Don in Volgograd Oblast overnight.

Russian forces recently made confirmed advances southeast of Chasiv Yar, near Avdiivka, and southwest of Donetsk City, and Ukrainian forces recently advanced north of Kharkiv City.

More at URL above.

Cheers

a reply to: kwaka

Belarus is more or less a Russian vassal state.

Orban is more pro-Russian than most European leaders although recently he does seem to be showing a bit more conciliatory stance.
What exactly is Hungary worried about?

Poland has some relatively minor issues with Ukraine....but it has far more pressing worries regarding Russian aggressiveness.
Again, what is Poland worried about?

You seem to be implying that Biden is the aggressor here.
Care to elaborate or explain that?
Last time I looked it was Putin who ordered the invasion of Ukraine, its Putin who is maintaining this totally senseless war of attrition and its Putin who seems hell bent on expanding Russian influence and control westward by any means necessary.
Its Putin and his gang who are repeatedly threatening first strike nuclear weapons on anyone and everyone who dares to disagree and/or stand up to their expansionism and paranoia driven aims.

a reply to: Freeborn

You seem to be implying that Biden is the aggressor here.

Trump says the Ukraine war would not of happened under his watch and it is one conflict he will put an end too if he does get back in. It does put the role of the USA President as one critical player in sorting this mess out. Biden is aggravating the situation, has been for a long time.

a reply to: kwaka

Trump would probably throw Ukraine and NATO under a bus.

a reply to: kwaka

Trump says the Ukraine war would not of happened under his watch....

Come on, anyone can say that.
Its an empty, redundant and meaningless statement.

And for the record he has never, ever to my knowledge expanded on how exactly he would have prevented it.
Maybe you know different?

...... and it is one conflict he will put an end too if he does get back in.

No doubt by selling Ukraine down the river just so he can cosy up to his bum chum Putin.

It does put the role of the USA President as one critical player in sorting this mess out.

Yes, The President of The United States of America should be at the forefront of preventing and standing up to Russian aggression - any aggression for that matter.

Biden is aggravating the situation, has been for a long time.

So yet again you are advocating kowtowing to Putin and his demands?
What would YOU have Biden do?

Biden is a hopeless incompetent and should never, ever have been allowed anywhere near The Oval Office....but he is NOT responsible for all that is wrong in the world.
Biden didn't invade Ukraine, Putin did.

I suspect some people's hatred of Biden blinds them to anything and everything he says and does. If Biden does or says one thing their hatred of him determines that they HAVE to support the opposite, no matter what.
Thus we see all those Defenders of Freedom and Liberty supporting a de facto dictator who is the diametric opposite of all those values they allege to hold so dear in his blatant and senseless land grab that is resulting in so much death, misery and lack of Freedom and Liberty.

a reply to: Freeborn

No doubt by selling Ukraine down the river just so he can cosy up to his bum chum Putin.

Really?
You’ve thought that through for more than a second?
Is that just rhetoric or are you truly that delusional?
Either way it doesn’t fair well for your credibility.

originally posted by: Oldcarpy2
a reply to: kwaka

Trump would probably throw Ukraine and NATO under a bus.

How exactly does that scenario even happen?
What exactly is this supposed bus anyway?
Does this “throwing under bus” result in more or less unnecessary Ukrainian deaths?

a reply to: Vermilion

Well, as no-one, not even Trump himself, has ever elaborated on exactly how Trump will stop this war I think its a fair assumption.

My credibility?
Its an anonymous website - granted one that I enjoy - do you really think 'my credibility' is at the forefront of my mind when I post.
Im post my opinions, observations and comments as I see fit - some people don't like them, fair enough.....I'm a big boy and I accept that we all don't see things the same way.

I haven't had the benefit of University/College education, I'm a simple working class white male from North East England and I often speak as I find and as I am outside of the restraints of site T&C....if that offends or upsets you I think that says far more about you than it does about me.

I have a questions

while I have no doubt Ukraine needs 128 F-16s do they have pilots to fly that many?

Answer they do not right now they have 1 pilot for 3 air frames, and they won't have enough trained F16 pilots for a YEAR AND A HALF

Even then that's not enough

x.com...

Clash Report
@clashreport
Ukraine needs at least 128 x F-16 fighter jets, not 10-20, as the West promises us, Zelensky says.

“The Russian Federation uses 300 aircraft against Ukraine every day. We had a decision on 10-20 [F-16s]. Even if there are 50, it’s nothing.”

theaviationgeekclub.com... ron/#google_vignette

‘Denmark, Norway, the Netherlands and Belgium alone are slated to send 60 F-16’s to Ukraine by the end of the year. That’s three airframes for every one trained pilot. The ideal ratio is almost the reverse. It would benefit Ukraine to have at least two trained pilots for every airframe, since people get tired before aircraft.

‘Unfortunately, both European and American F-16 schoolhouses are at capacity with only a few slots given to foreign pilots each year. In the case of the US, foreign pilot training is typically scheduled years in advance and the US can’t easily change its obligations to train its own pilots as well as those of allied nations. That said, Europe, the US, and defense contractor, Lockheed Martin, seem to be making every effort to adjust to the new reality.

Another year and a half before Ukraine has one fully operational F-16 squadron
‘Additionally, Ukrainian pilots must learn English with a strong emphasis on aviation and military terminology before they begin pilot training, which also takes time. They won’t gain fluency in such a short amount of time, but you can get close after about a year.’

Watson concludes;

‘What it means is that we’re still looking at another year and a half before Ukraine has even one fully operational F-16 squadron. Until then, we can’t hope to see these fighters making much more of a difference. The major hang up for Ukraine’s Air Force right now isn’t aircraft — it’s trained pilots.’

a reply to: kwaka

So, no explanation as to what Hungary or Poland are 'worried about' as you allege.
No real explanation as to why you think Biden is the aggressor and Putin isn't as you seem to constantly imply?

a reply to: putnam6

Weren't the RAF and other Air Forces training Ukrainian pilots?
I'm sure I recall something of the sort being agreed right at the outbreak of this war.

Could easily be wrong and I have absolutely no technical knowledge on this subject at all other than I know it does take quite some time to train pilots to fly these planes.

Not sure how effective these planes would be if used in a purely defensive capacity in Ukrainian air space.
At this moment in time I wouldn't support them being used offensively, especially in Russian air space.

a reply to: Freeborn

No doubt by selling Ukraine down the river just so he can cosy up to his bum chum Putin.

How about responding to my question about your statement here.
You don’t need to qualify yourself at all.
Just qualify that statement.
You’ve made some decent points but they all go out the window when you throw that statement in there.
It’s quite ridiculous imo.
I’m eager to know why you think it’s not a totally ridiculous thing to say.

a reply to: Vermilion

Really? Cutting all defence aid to Ukraine? That bus?

"Unnecessary Ukrainian deaths"? If your country was invaded by a brutal and repressive Dictator would fighting for freedom be "unnecessary"?

a reply to: Vermilion

Trump was quite cosy with Putin when President.
He hasn't been exactly been critical of him since he stopped being President.
Trump has not been forthcoming with details on exactly how he would stop this war in an instant.

Withdrawing US support for Ukraine will allow Putin's forces to eventually overrun Ukraine and enable Putin's land grab.
A sell out in my opinion.

Using the phrase 'bum chum' is quite common in regular speech in such circumstances where I come from.
If it upsets your sensibilities well.......sorry.

Can someone more knowledgeable about such things explain what difference these F16s might make and what they could do?