Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 3

a reply to: kwaka

Russia does not want to hurt Kyiv.

This is why they marched for Kyiv in the beginning of the war?

It makes sense. Absolutely.

a reply to: kwaka

So that's your 'easy fix', bow down and agree to Putin's demands.

Don't the Ukrainian people get a say in this?

a reply to: kwaka

"Russia does not want to hurt Kyiv, "

Apart from the drone and missile attacks on it?

Bless them, eh?

a reply to: Freeborn

So that's your 'easy fix', bow down and agree to Putin's demands.

Not all of them. Once the boarder is redrawn he knows NATO is coming. As for the sanctions, Russia is better off dethatched from the USD with the trajectory it in on. Still plenty of third parties to move stuff around if required.

This is why they marched for Kyiv in the beginning of the war?

Early days of the war, probing the boundaries. Their tanks where not as good as the Germans in WW2, but they built 3X as many. Hard to argue with those numbers. Got them to Berlin when they where ready. The chess pieces are different these days.

a reply to: Oldcarpy2

"Russia does not want to hurt Kyiv, "

Apart from the drone and missile attacks on it?

Bless them, eh?

Kyiv has seen a lot of war in the history books. If Russia wanted to capture it, It is going to be a mess again. Lot of heritage in that place even if the current generation don't get it.

a reply to: kwaka

So Ukraine has no say in the matter, it has to give up all the land that has been taken?

a reply to: Freeborn

So Ukraine has no say in the matter, it has to give up all the land that has been taken?

What do mean by Ukraine? Someone who lives on the land and has more to do with Russia than Europe? Do you really think Zelensky speaks for all Ukraine? Does Biden or Trump speak for you?

Russia has been holding these lands, it is not a lot, helps with access to Crimea. Lot of history there. Poking the bear if you want that place.

Do you see how Ukraine is stuck in a NATO v Russia clash. Lot of things went down in WW2. I am looking for a reasonable way through it. Then we have the EU expansion, putting a lot of pressure here. How will the EUI and Russia will live as neighbors? With the tone set in Ukraine since independence, not very well.

Making some space between conflicting parties is a good start to deescalate tensions. How much more blood has to be spilt to draw the line somewhere?

a reply to: kwaka

What do mean by Ukraine?

As in Ukraine as defined by its internationally recognised borders that existed prior to the invasion.
The borders Russia swore to respect and protect as a signatory of The Budapest Memorandum.

Someone who lives on the land and has more to do with Russia than Europe?

Historically possibly.....yet their democratic choice was for closer links to Western Europe/EU etc.
Why do you suppose that was?

Do you really think Zelensky speaks for all Ukraine?

Of course not....but he speaks for a damned sight more than Putin does.

Does Biden or Trump speak for you?

Of course not, why would they....that's just stupid.
Does any leader speak for all of any country?

Where's the relevance to your masterplan for an 'easy fix'?

Russia has been holding these lands,.......

Yes, forcibly and against the wishes of the majority of people who lived there - please notice the past tense.

..... it is not a lot,.....

Its enough.
Any foreign nation invaded one inch of my country I'd fight them till my dying breath; wouldn't you?

..... helps with access to Crimea.

So what?
They shouldn't be in Crimea either.
But they are.....so your justification is it helps Russia with access to Crimea by giving them all the land they have forcibly taken from a non-threatening neighbour?

Making some space between conflicting parties is a good start to deescalate tensions.

So is Russia withdrawing to the pre-existing borders, ordering an immediate unconditional ceasefire and entering negotiations with no pre-conditions.

How much more blood has to be spilt to draw the line somewhere?

And none would have been spilt in the first place if Russia hadn't invaded....yet you would reward Russia for that invasion by handing them all the land they have taken for force.

3 July Update

Ukraine conducted a naval drone strike against Russian naval infrastructure in Novorossiysk, Krasnodar Krai on the night of July 3 and reportedly damaged energy infrastructure during an aerial drone strike on Belgorod Oblast on the night of July 1.

Unspecified People's Republic of China (PRC) and Russian companies are reportedly working together to develop a drone similar to the Iranian-designed Shahed loitering munition for Russia to use in Ukraine.

Russian forces recently advanced within easternmost Chasiv Yar, in the Toretsk direction, and near Avdiivka, and Ukrainian forces recently advanced within Vovchansk, near Kreminna, and southeast of Chasiv Yar.

More at URL above.

Cheers

Not sure why Crimea is even in the discussion anymore .

Crimea is a done deal. It’s been over a decade now.

In 1950s it got gifted by Khrushchev.

In 99’, NATO with Tony Blair etc planted a base in Kosovo and gifted it Muslim extremists in 99’ for pay for play opportunities.

So NATO encroached.

Well, things change rapidly as we know.

At least in Kosovo, Serbs had monasteries there going back before 800s.

If Kosovo can be stripped in 99’ from Serbia, don’t Crimea river 10 years later about others.

Crimea is a done deal.

a reply to: Freeborn

Historically possibly.....yet their democratic choice was for closer links to Western Europe/EU etc.
Why do you suppose that was?

The Western side of Ukraine has a lot more influence from EU due to its proximity. Similar to the Eastern side of Ukraine with Russia.

Where's the relevance to your masterplan for an 'easy fix'?

USA policy has an influence in the ongoing conflict. I don't see any easy fix with Biden and the lack of will to negotiate. As for what exact terms Trump and Putin come to, i don't know, still a few months to go if it does go that way. Considering the history of the region, Putin's proposal is a reasonable start to finding a way that Russia and NATO can live together as neighbors. Maybe with some of these recent EU votes going more right wing, some progress towards and end of the conflict will start?

They shouldn't be in Crimea either.

I disagree. Germany and the USSR had a lot of heavy fighting there during WW2. At the end it was a hard win for the USSR.

So is Russia withdrawing to the pre-existing borders, ordering an immediate unconditional ceasefire and entering negotiations with no pre-conditions.

Russia wont retreat without a lot of heavy fighting. Russia will not advancing much either while there is some upcoming hope for a resolution. Russia will be open to a ceasefire and have already made public a start for negations. In these kinds of conflicts, no one gets everything they want, everyone gets enough to put an end to the war and carry on.

Any foreign nation invaded one inch of my country I'd fight them till my dying breath; wouldn't you?

Fighting for what we believe in is what we do. Big cultural divide going on in Ukraine. Not as entangled and mixed up as it is in the Middle East.

a reply to: kwaka

And still no mention of any consideration at all for what the Ukrainian people themselves want.

You speak repeatedly about Biden/Trump and Putin, not a single mention of what those actually living there and who's land it actually is think or want.
Actions speak louder than words....the majority are resisting the invasion with all their might.

As for Russia being up for negotiations - have you seen their pre-conditions?
It amounts to a capitulation and caving in to all of Putin's demands - and that's before negotiations even start.
No way on earth will Ukraine agree to that....and rightly so.

The previous poster is probably correct; Crimea is more or less and done deal at present.
But who knows what the future brings.
Russia has a history of giving up on these long campaigns that don't go as expected for them - look at WWI and Afghanistan.

4 July Update

Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) officers reportedly detained the commander of the Russian 83rd Guards Airborne Assault (VDV) Brigade, Colonel Artyom Gorodilov, on fraud charges on July 3 following reports of the brigade suffering heavy losses in the Kharkiv direction in June 2024. Kremlin-affiliated business outlet Kommersant stated that FSB military counterintelligence officers detained Gorodilov in Ryazan Oblast on a charge of especially large-scale fraud and transported Gorodilov to the Russian Investigative Committee's headquarters in Moscow. Russian media reported that Gorodilov denied the charge and stated that he will seek acquittal in the future, and that the Russian 235th Garrison Military Court sent Gorodilov to a pre-trial detention center.

The US Department of Defense (DoD) announced the purchase of $2.2 billion worth of US-produced air defense interceptors and an aid package worth $150 million for Ukraine on July 3.

Russian forces recently advanced near Kreminna, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City.

More at URL above.

Cheers

originally posted by: kwaka
Russia will be open to a ceasefire and have already made public a start for negations. In these kinds of conflicts, no one gets everything they want, everyone gets enough to put an end to the war and carry on.

You really don't understand Putin, if you think there will be any kind of end to this war as long as he is in power. The only reason Putin might agree to a cease fire is so he can run his war factories full tilt to produce more weapons at about 7% of GDP, one of the highest percent of GDP military spending rates on Earth, if not the highest, and so he can train more people during the cease fire. Then when he thinks he has enough forces, he will ignore any previous agreement and either take the rest of Ukraine, or attempt to do so. He at least wants to take Kyiv or as Putin would like to call it, Kiev, or install a puppet leader there like he has with Lukashenko in Belarus.

Justin Bronk and Ward Carroll do understand Putin, so listen Justin explain it, at time 12:30, then Ward Carroll agrees that Putin will not stop even if Ukraine agrees to a cease fire:

12:30 Justin Bronk: "They (Ukrainians) know what happens in territory the Russians occupy and there's no kind of negotiated peace on Russian terms. The Russians won't stop, because they think they can take the whole country, and nothing the Ukrainians can offer them is worth anything close to Victory for Putin, and nothing that Western Partners can force or convince the Ukrainians to offer them short of essentially surrender is worth anything close to what Putin thinks he can get through just continuing to fight."

Putin's "Peace deal" was for Ukraine to not only surrender territory Russia already occupies, but to also surrender territory Russia doesn't occupy, and may never occupy, as long as Ukraine's allies support them adequately. One example is the Kherson oblast, west of the Dnipro river. Once Ukraine kicked Russia out of occupying Kherson city, I don't think the Russians will be able to take it back, but Russia just wants Ukraine to give surrender Kherson to Russia, along with the rest of Kherson oblast.

Putin Makes Cease-Fire Offer With Sweeping Demands on Ukraine’s Territory

Mr. Putin’s new announcement stipulates that Ukraine effectively surrender huge swaths of land it now controls to Moscow, including the capitals of the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions. It represents Mr. Putin’s most concrete set of territorial conditions to stop the war to date.

Ukraine will never agree to that and they shouldn't be asked to agree to that.

Putin also wants co continue the Russian tradition of cultural genocide, but take it to the next level.

The destruction of Ukrainian culture has been an important part of the Russian invasion.

The destruction of Ukrainian culture has been an important part of the Russian invasion. For years, Russian President Vladimir Putin has paved the way for this assault by claiming that Ukraine is not a real nation.

But historians have shown that Ukrainian history can be traced to 10th century Kyivan Rus. Like other European societies, Ukraine started to develop its modern national identity in the 18th and 19th centuries through literature, music, food, dance and language.

This Russian desire to eliminate Ukraine didn't begin with Putin, it's been going on for centuries, including with Peter the Great who Putin greatly admires and talks about:
How Russia has attempted to erase Ukrainian language, culture throughout centuries

Russia has not only killed tens of thousands of Ukrainians and ruined much of the country's infrastructure since the start of the full-scale invasion.

It has also aimed at destroying the core of Ukrainian identity — language, and culture — in the territories it has occupied.

Businesses and institutions there were have been forced to switch to Russian, while the Russian curriculum has been imposed in schools...

According to Hrytsak, the "radical change in rhetoric" appeared in 2021, when Putin published an article on the Kremlin's website claiming that Ukraine “has never existed” and that "Ukrainians and Russians are one people, one whole."

Does anybody seriously think Ukraine can negotiate with Putin when he says that Ukraine "has never existed"? The best Ukraine could hope for in any such negotiation is a temprary cease fire, but only because that would benefit Russia, and help it to fulfill Putin's desire to commit cultural genocide against all of Ukraine:

In Melitopol, an occupied city in Ukraine's southeastern Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Russian troops have seized all of Ukrainian literature from the local libraries, the Ukrainian military's National Resistance Center reported.

Ukrainian children's writer and poet Volodymyr Vakulenko was killed during the Russian occupation of a village near Izium, Kharkiv Oblast. Artist Panchenko died after a month of starvation in occupied Bucha, Kyiv Oblast.

In occupied Nova Kakhovka, Kherson Oblast, Russian troops have erected a monument to Soviet leader Vladimir Lenin. They have been stealing art collections from local museums and renaming the streets after Moscow leaders and their propaganda slogans.

"It's a cultural genocide against Ukraine," says Hrytsak.

Putin who declares Ukraine "never existed" is not going to be satisfied with any cease fire, do you get that?

Listen to any of Putin's former advisors who have spoken publicly about Putin, those who know Putin best. They will tell you the same thing as Justin, that Putin does not want Ukraine to exist at all and said it "has never existed".

One of the main points in the above video that Justin makes is about F-16 training. He says it's nearly impossible to get a good result trying to re-train pilots trained on soviet aircraft using soviet doctrine to effectively utilize F-16's, which use a dramatically different doctrine. Past F-16 training efforts have shown it's better to train new pilots from scratch on F-16s, than trying to retrain experienced pilots who first have to unlearn almost everything they know befor ethey can start learning.

But he also adds that NATO would never send F-16's alone into the threat environment faced in Ukraine, they would only be part of a larger force with other aircraft and other assets making the threat environment more favorable for F-16 use, so don't expect F-16s to be any kind of magic solution to Ukraine's problems. Ukraine does need something to counter Russia's aviation gliding bombs though. I was hoping F-16's might help with that, because those are causing big problems for Ukraine, and they don't seem to have good defenses against them yet. They are working on their own aviation gliding bombs, but that won't stop the Russian bombs.

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2
When the losses get so heavy even Putin and his FSB cronies take notice, they must be really huge losses, because past actions have shown that Putin doesn't really care that much about losing Russian soldiers. He was apparently OK with the huge losses of the meat wave tactics in Bakhmut and Avdiivka when they got results, but I guess he's looking bad in Kharkiv because despite the huge Russian meat wave losses, Ukraine is re-taking the territory. I'm not quite sure how large losses amount to "fraud" though, but Putin doesn't need a real reason to detain anybody he wants, he can just make up a reason if there's not one.

a reply to: Arbitrageur

You really don't understand Putin, if you think there will be any kind of end to this war as long as he is in power.

Yes. Never meet him, just seen bits and pieces over the years. Looks like he has done a good job helping with the currency reset as the USSR changed to Russia. In talking to people from Russia, been a lot of improvements from the old days since. The new Russian constitution is one example.

With the long term conflicts going on on the sporting and economic front, I don't know all the details. The issues look bigger than Ukraine when it does come to these long term war tensions. The language barrier and miscommunications have always been a problem for all sides on cultural conflicts.

The impression I get is that Putin is taking a moderate approach with Ukraine. If Putin should unexpectantly fall, then prepare for more hardline approach to take over. The Russian war industry is getting high yields at a low cost these days.



I don't know how things will actually look when it is rime to end this war. Will Russia make more ground or lose more ground if this conflict continues to drag on for years? With how Russia is out producing on the arms front, odds look good for them.

With Putin's proposal to make the rest of Ukraine independent, how has that worked out first time? If Ukraine does get cut up, then expecting the independent part to become more aligned with EU/NATO is reasonable. While there is an offer of peace on the table, worth considering it. Might not be as generous next time? Might not even be a next time if the nukes start going off as the conflict spreads.

a reply to: Arbitrageur

Arb,

Could be the colonel in question made someone up higher angry for whatever reasons. It is hard to divine what the Russian state machine is up to when they suddenly take notice of the incredible waste and corruption that is an integral part of their operation.

Cheers

5 July Update

Russian President Vladimir Putin used a meeting with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban on July 5 to oppose a negotiated ceasefire altogether and expressed his commitment to pursuing a "final" end to the war that would achieve his goal of destroying Ukrainian statehood.

Ukrainian forces conducted successful drone and missile strikes against targets in Tambov and Rostov oblasts and Krasnodar Krai on July 4 and 5. Ukrainian media reported that sources within Ukrainian intelligence stated that Ukraine's Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) conducted a successful drone strike against a gunpowder plant in Kotovsk, Tambov Oblast on July 4 and that the GUR is clarifying the consequences of the strike.

Russian forces recently advanced near Vovchansk, Toretsk, and Donetsk City.

More at URL above.

Cheers

"Kyiv is still not ready to abandon the idea of pursuing a war to the victorious end"

1 minute of pure comedy from the master of deadpan , Putin laments on Ukraine's unwillingness to stop fighting to regain its territory that's been invaded by Russia.

"However this should not be some pause that the Kyiv regime could use to restore its losses , regroup and re-arm"


Poor Vlad , if only Ukraine hadn't invaded Ukraine.

Putin, however, reiterated his demand that Ukrainian forces must withdraw from the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions during a press conference in Moscow after meeting with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban.