Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 3

20 July Update

Ukrainian drones struck a Russian airfield in Rostov Oblast on the night of July 19 to 20. Russian sources claimed on July 20 that Ukrainian forces launched 30 drones against the Millerovo airfield in Rostov Oblast and that the strike caused damage to infrastructure and a fuel tank.

Russian forces recently advanced near Vovchansk, Svatove, and Donetsk City.

More at URL above.

Cheers

21 July Update

Geolocated imagery confirms that a Ukrainian drone strike damaged infrastructure at the Millerovo Airbase in Rostov Oblast overnight from July 19 to 20. Geolocated satellite imagery collected on July 21 shows that Ukrainian strikes destroyed the Millerovo Airbase's maintenance hangar, damaged a fuel depot, and sparked a fire in a nearby field.

Russian forces recently advanced near Avdiivka.

More at URL above.

Cheers

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

Russian forces recently advanced near Avdiivka.

Seems to me that Russian forces have been 'advancing near Avdiivka' for what seems like an eternity.

a reply to: Freeborn

I think most of these 'advances' are World War One-like in nature.

The war has proved that Russia in its current form can't keep a mechanized force in combat and that its navy is largely impotent. The Russian air force has probably been their most successful military service in this war.

Cheers

originally posted by: Freeborn
a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

Russian forces recently advanced near Avdiivka.

Seems to me that Russian forces have been 'advancing near Avdiivka' for what seems like an eternity.

Guessing it’s because the “ISW press” chose to use Avdiivka as the current point of reference.

As it’s probably more familiar to the general audience, and can associate with it being in the headlines during it’s fall from a few months ago.

Plus it was one UA’s most fortified areas on the front in the Donetsk oblast. Currently, it’s more known than let’s say “Myrnohrad”

One of the current advancements (by Prohres) is heading towards the city of Myrnohrad. Which is about 22km away from Prohres.

Myrnohrad is approximately 51.3 kilometers from Avdiivka.

Myrnohrad is also 9.2 kilometers from Pokrovsk.

Prior to 2020, Pokrovsk was incorporated as a city of oblast significance

en.wikipedia.org...

22 July Update

Ukrainian forces conducted drone strikes against Russian oil infrastructure in Krasnodar Krai and a military air base in Rostov Oblast on July 22.

Georgian authorities reportedly placed roughly 300 Georgian citizens who have served as volunteers in the Georgian Legion alongside Ukrainian forces on Georgia's wanted list.

Russian forces recently advanced near Vovchansk, Siversk, Toretsk, and Donetsk City.

More at URL above.

Cheers

23 July Update

Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted drone strikes against a ferry crossing in Kavkaz, Krasnodar Krai on the night of July 22 to 23. Krasnodar Krai officials claimed that Ukrainian drones struck a ferry in the port of Kavkaz, causing a temporary fire.

Russian forces recently marginally advanced near Siversk, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City.

More at URL above.

Cheers

originally posted by: F2d5thCavv2
Passing observation. War has moved to a more or less static phase marked by trench warfare and strikes by robotic weapons.

If you look at what's going on at the front lines, that assessment seems accurate.

Ukraine is not going to be able to push Russians out of the occupied territory, so some people ask, why do Ukrainians keep fighting? I think the answer is because a Ukrainian victory will not happen on the front lines in Ukraine, it will result from a regime change inside Russia.

We can look at what has historically caused regime changes in Russia (and other countries), and unrest of the population is certainly a factor that has resulted in regime changes.

A number of sources predicted that Putin would announce another mobilization after he got elected. But the Estonian Ambassador explains why he thinks that hasn't happened, because Putin is afraid to "rock the boat" inside Russia with another mobilization:

Putin is ‘growing desperate’ says Estonian ambassador

He mentions a quote from Napoleon that "a leader deals in hope" for the future, and he says that Russians have lost hope for a better future. The Russian media seems to be preparing Russians for a return to the unpleasant austerity of the days of the USSR, though it may get even worse than that eventually.

For a while, it looked like Russia was able to replenish the troops that were getting maimed or killed by offering larger and larger bonuses to sign up for the army. In Moscow, the signup bonus offered got up to the equivalent of $21,000 in USD, roughly equal to 30 months of the average Russian monthly salary of $700.

But how much bonus does Putin need to offer to get people to join the army when soldiers in the Kharkiv offensive call home to their families and report that of the 100 people in their first assault after joining the army, only 12 survived and some of those 12 were injured? Even though $21,000 is a small fortune in Russia, it's still probably not enough in Moscow to get people to sign up for a 88% chance of dying on their first mission, or whatever the odds are, they are bad in those meat waves. This video talks about the huge bonuses being offered,that still may not be enough to recruit people from the cities:

Russia Resorts to MASSIVE Bonuses to Boost Army Numbers!


So if that doesn't work Putin will be faced with a choice of either raising the bonuses even further, or else resorting to mobilization, which he appears to be avoiding to avoid the unrest and maybe another mass exodus it could create, as happened in the first mobilization where up to a million of probably the best and brightest who had the resources to leave Russia to emigrate.

Mass emigration might also exacerbate the huge inflation problem Russia is facing. They are increasing the already astronomical interest rate from 16% to 18%, and are talking about the possibility of having to raise it to 20% to get inflation under control. When Putin is killing lots of his working age population in a war, and a lot of them fled to avoid getting killed, and then he needs more workers to ramp up military production, worker salaries have to increase, then prices have to be raised on what the workers produce to pay those high salaries and that's probably at the core of Russia's inflation problem. Things are so bad now that the average Russian can only afford a 6 square meter apartment (that's about 60 square feet). Think about how expensive it is to build an apartment building when you have to pay 16-20% interest on the loan or mortgage, which of course gets passed to the renters.

So in spite of how we hear about the "great Russian economy" and it does have some things going for it like low unemployment and high wages, in reality, that propaganda hides the severe problems with the Russian economy such as the loss of purchasing power due to inflation and excessively high interest rates. Add to that the Russian rouble is not a strong currency so buying foreign goods is now expensive and that adds to the problem of loss of purchasing power for the average Russian.

Those kind of economic problems may lead to unrest, but there are other problems causing some unrest. At least 3 million Russians were without power for an extended period in southern Russia in the middle of a heat wave, and some were protesting about that. Konstantin, a Russian from the "Inside Russia" youtube channel was upgrading the Russia electric infrastructure from 2004-2022 which all ended when the western companies all pulled out of Russia rather quickly after Russia invaded Ukraine. He says all that equipment needs maintenance and spare parts and Russians are not trained to do the maintenance, it's very sophisticated equipment and it was being done by employees from the western companies, but now it's basically not being done, and they don't have spare parts and can't get them.

Some people suggested China might help, but he said they let China build a power plant and it's got 50% downtime, it only runs every other day on average, which is dismal compared to the high uptime they have from plants and equipment from Western companies. Plus, Russia is running low on money, nobody wants to invest there anymore, unlike prior to their invasion of Ukraine, where there was plenty of money because of foreign investors. Also, we might recall people protesting last winter due to freezing from no heat, a related infrastructure problem also resulting from lack of money for maintenance and lack of maintenance. These things like lack of electricity and lack of heat in Russia seem far removed from the front lines, but they also seem likely to cause more protests if they continue and sooner or later the people might figure out it's happening because of all the money being diverted to the war, plus western countries not supporting all the installed western equipment. That goes for refineries too, they may see gasoline shortages or higher prices for gas which used to be subsidized to keep prices low. This will drive even more inflation.

Gasoline export from Russia banned again after price increase by tens of percent

Tue, July 23, 2024 at 10:54 AM EDT
Source: The Moscow Times

Details: Since the beginning of June, wholesale prices on the Ai-95 gasoline in Russia have skyrocketed by 44%, surpassing 70 roubles per tonne (US$800). A chronic deficit of this gasoline in the market has been observed.

Also Russia may be returning to the ways of the USSR. I don't know if you folks remember how dismal grocery stores in the USSR looked with very poor availability and selection compared to western grocery stores. In economics they teach that price controls can lead to shortages and guess what Russia is starting to implement to try to control the high inflation of food prices? That's right, price controls:

Food Price Control Introduced In Russia!

So aside from the front lines in Ukraine, we are seeing many signs in Russia that contrary to Russian propaganda that things are going great inside of Russia, things are not actually going so great inside of Russia. Exactly what will cause enough unrest to trigger a regime change is hard to predict, but there appear to be numerous possibilities showings signs of distress in recent news from Russia.

a reply to: Arbitrageur

Great post, thank you.

I only hope RT gets to read it and provide some feedback on the points you have raised.

a reply to: Freeborn
Thanks for the feedback. RT, you mean RussianTroll? I've seen him post in other threads but so far I don't remember him posting in this thread.

In one way, it seems Russia is already "back to the USSR" but it doesn't have as many allies as the USSR had, so the USSR tricks that worked in the past aren't working for Russia now.

Only 15 athletes from Russia will compete at the Paris Games, under a “neutral” designation.

“We have a very clear historical parallel that directly indicates where Russia is now — exactly where the Soviet Union was in 1980,” he said. “A direct, undisguised confrontation with the Western world, in which sport became an instrument of the confrontation.”

There is one notable difference, he added. In 1984, the Soviet Union organized its own Olympic-style competition, Druzhba-84, or the Friendship Games. The event was portrayed as evidence that the socialist way of life “provides more favorable facilities for the human beings’ all-round physical and spiritual development.” Athletes from about 50 countries participated.

This time around, a version known as Druzhba-24, was scheduled to take place in September by Mr. Putin’s decree. Organizers allocated money and planned competition in more than 30 summer sports, but it was postponed until at least next year, Mr. Navosha said, a sign that not enough countries were on board to compete.

“We understand that Russia’s circle of allies is much smaller now than it was back then, and it is too small to hold their ersatz Olympics,” said Mr. Navosha.

I feel kind of bad for the Russian athletes who don't get a chance to compete. You usually get one chance at your prime to win the gold, and even if you get another chance 4 years later to compete, by then you may not be at your prime anymore. Even the ersatz olympics is not working out as scheduled, which is not only another blow to the athletes, but I think that's also a sign that Russia is even more isolated now than the soviet union was back in 1984.

If Russian Troll is still living in Russia, he can't really speak the truth anyway. Konstantin from the "Inside Russia" channel was building Russian electric grid infrastructure inside Russia from 2004 to 2022, but I think he said he's living outside of Russia now. There's no way he can be living in Russia now with the things he's saying, like calling the war a war. He gave one example of a murderer in Russia who was put in prison, then wagner recruited the prisoner and he survived 6 months and was pardoned as Putin and Prigozhin promised. Then he murdered again, and for his serial murder he was sentenced to 7 years in prison.
Konstantin pointed out a man with no criminal record at all was arrested for calling the war a war and was given the same 7 year prison sentence as the serial murderer. So this should give you some idea of the concept of free speech about the war in Russia, and the Russian justice system.

If it's the viewpoint of a Russian you want, check out Konstantin, he's very Russian and apparently he loves Russia and wants to move back there if they can get a leader who is not going to destroy all hope for Russians and destroy the country like Putin is doing. He's in the last video in my previous post and you can follow that link to find his other videos, go to the live stream tab, most of his recent videos are archived live streams. It's interesting to get a Russian's perspective on the war and what's going on inside Russia. He sure knows a lot about electrical infrastructure in Russia since that was his work for the last two decades until the invasion of Ukraine. From what he was saying, I doubt we've seen the last of the problems with the electrical infrastructure in Russia since the western companies pulled out their maintenance teams and no longer supply spare parts, though he said they can coast for a while on poor maintenance and lack of spare parts, but eventually that will catch up with Russia, as I think it already has in the Russian airlines and oil refining industries to some extent.

a reply to: Imhere

"But the Wagner operatives left more than boobytraps. They also spray-painted swastikas and SS lightning bolts as graffiti wherever they went. Nazi symbols are popular among the mercenaries; in Ukraine in April, a leader of Task Force Rusich, a Wagner subsidiary, was videotaped wearing the Valknot and Tatenkoph of the 3rd SS Panzer Division. Wagner itself is named after the notoriously antisemitic German composer, whose operas famously made Hitler weep. According to the group’s origin story, a former Spetsnaz (Soviet special forces) soldier named Dmitry Utkin used “Wagner” as his callsign while fighting in the Donbass region in eastern Ukraine in 2014. Utkin, who many consider Wagner’s operational commander, has tattoos of Nazi “SS” epaulets along his collar bones. "

time.com...

Look! Some Nazis for you to get angry about.

They're Russian Nazis, though.

a reply to: Oldcarpy2
Yes, Russia's wagner was Nazi-led, but that's jut the tip of the Nazi iceberg in Russia. The Russian media appears to promote Russian nazis without any apparent sense of irony or cognitive dissonance when they also mindlessly repeat the propaganda about denazifying Ukraine.

Who Are The Neo-Nazis Fighting For Russia In Ukraine?

"I'm a Nazi. I’m a Nazi,” said one of the men, Aleksei Milchakov, who was the main focus of the video published on a Russian nationalist YouTube channel. “I'm not going to go deep and say, I’m a nationalist, a patriot, an imperialist, and so forth. I’ll say it outright: I’m a Nazi.”

“You have to understand that when you kill a person, you feel the excitement of the hunt. If you’ve never been hunting, you should try it. It’s interesting,” he said.

Aside from being a notorious, avowed Nazi known for killing a puppy and posting bragging photographs about it on social media, Milchakov is the head of a Russian paramilitary group known as Rusich, which openly embraces Nazi symbolism and radical racist ideologies. The group, and Milchakov himself, have been credibly linked to atrocities in Ukraine and in Syria.

Along with members of the Russian Imperial Movement, a white supremacist group that was designated a "global terrorist" organization by the United States two years ago, Rusich is one of several right-wing groups that are actively fighting in Ukraine, in conjunction with Russia’s regular armed forces or allied separatist units.

According to a confidential report by Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service, which was obtained by Der Spiegel and excerpted on May 22, numerous Russian right-wing extremists and neo-Nazis are fighting in Ukraine.

German analysts wrote that the fact that Russian military and political leaders have welcomed neo-Nazi groups undermines the claim by Putin and his government that one of the principal motives behind the invasion is the desire to “de-Nazify” Ukraine, Spiegel said.

This fact, Spiegel quoted the report as saying, renders "the alleged reason for the war, the so-called de-Nazification of Ukraine, absurd.”

People who don't realize there is a bigger nazi problem in Russia than in Ukraine must either be brain dead or be on Putin's payroll to spread his propaganda.

Denys Davydov did a special episode about this very topic, and pointed out that it's not just that lots of Nazis exist in Russia, but it's worse than that because they are often fighting men and Russian media implies they want more Russians to be like these nazi men! How's that for cognitive dissonance when they are allegedly trying to "denazify" ukraine which we know is just made-up propaganda to give Putin some kind of excuse for his "special military operation".

Update from Ukraine | Ruzzian Army Nazis in Ukraine | Real Face of the Ruzzian regime

a reply to: Arbitrageur

Thank you for the the very informative post.

a reply to: Arbitrageur

Wow. Thanks.

Will RT offer his views on this?

Or Imhere?

He/she is very vocal about Bandera and supposed Ukrainian Nazis?

24 July Update

An assassination attempt injured a reported senior Russian military intelligence officer in Moscow City on July 24.

Russian forces recently marginally advanced north of Kharkiv City and near Avdiivka and Donetsk City.

More at URL above.

Cheers

25 July Update

Ukrainian forces blunted one of the largest Russian mechanized assaults in Ukraine since October 2023 in western Donetsk Oblast on July 24. Geolocated footage published on July 24 shows that Ukrainian forces stopped a reinforced battalion size Russian mechanized assault near Kostyantynivka (southwest of Donetsk City) after Russian forces advanced up to the southeastern outskirts of the settlement. A Ukrainian brigade operating in the Kurakhove direction reported that Russian forces attacked simultaneously with 11 tanks, 45 armored combat vehicles, a rare "Terminator" armored fighting vehicle (of which Russia has reportedly manufactured only 23 as of December 2023), 12 motorcycles, and roughly 200 personnel from several tactical directions at dawn on July 24. The brigade reported that Ukrainian aerial reconnaissance identified the mechanized columns from a distance and that Ukrainian forces used artillery, drones, and minefields to blunt the Russian assault. The brigade reported that Ukrainian forces damaged or destroyed six Russian tanks, seven armored combat vehicles, and all 12 motorcycles and that Russian forces retreated after Ukrainian forces destroyed the first wave of vehicles. ISW last observed Russian forces conduct a battalion-sized mechanized attack in Donetsk Oblast in March 2024. Russian forces have not conducted larger mechanized assaults in Ukraine since the first days of Russia's four-month long operation to seize Avdiivka in October 2023.

The Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) and National Police announced that they neutralized a group connected to the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) that had been preparing to commit arson against civilian objects in Ukraine and elsewhere in Europe.

Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Robotyne, and Russian forces recently marginally advanced north of Kharkiv City and near Toretsk, Donetsk City, and Robotyne.

More at URL above.

Cheers

26 July Update

Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted an ATACMS strike against Saky Airbase in occupied Crimea on the night of July 25 to 26. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on July 26 that Ukrainian forces conducted a missile strike against Saky Airbase in occupied Crimea on the night of July 25 to 26.

The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) arrested former Russian Deputy Defense Minister Army General Dmitri Bulgakov on corruption charges on July 26 ...

The European Union (EU) transferred the first tranche of proceeds from frozen Russian assets to Ukraine. European Commission President Ursula von Der Leyen announced on July 26 that the EU transferred 1.5 billion euros (about $1.6 billion) from frozen Russian assets to Ukraine as a part of its support for Ukraine’s defense capabilities and reconstruction.

Russian forces recently marginally advanced near Svatove, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City.

More at URL above.

Cheers

27 July Update

Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted successful drone strikes against an oil refinery and Russian military airfields in Saratov, Ryazan, and Murmansk oblasts on the night of July 26 to 27. Sources with Ukrainian special services told Ukrainian media that Ukraine's Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) struck Russian military airfields in Engles (sic), Saratov Oblast; the Dyaghilev Airfield and an oil refinery in Ryazan Oblast; and the Olenya Airfield in Murmansk Oblast with drones.

Ukrainian forces recently regained positions near Toretsk, and Russian forces recently advanced west and southwest of Donetsk City, and Ukrainian forces recently advanced in Vovchansk.

More at URL above.

Cheers

28 July Update

Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike against a Russian oil depot in Polevaya, Kursk Oblast on the night of July 27 to 28. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) and other Ukrainian forces struck Polevaya oil depot, causing an explosion and fire.

Russian forces recently advanced northwest of Avdiivka, west of Donetsk City, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast, and Ukrainian forces recently regained lost positions in the Siversk direction.

More at URL above.

Cheers

29 July Update

The US Department of Defense (DoD) announced on July 29 the provision of security assistance to Ukraine worth $200 million from the authorization of a Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) package and an additional package worth $1.5 billion in Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI) funds.

Ukrainian drones struck Russian energy and utility infrastructure in Oryol, Voronezh, and Belgorod oblasts on the night of July 28 to 29. Oryol Oblast Governor Andrei Klychkov claimed that Russian forces shot down two drones in Glazunovsky Raion on the night of July 28 to 29 and that falling debris damaged a power plant.

More at URL above.

Reports made that anywhere between 20 and 80 Russian Wagner mercenaries were killed in a Tuareg ambush in northern Mali.

Cheers