Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 3

a reply to: Vermilion

From my point of view we are helping an independent nation fight to retain its independence in the face of naked, hostile aggression, a worthy cause.

I'm not American.

Of course it would be great if a negotiated peace could be agreed that would see a long term peaceful solution....but it isn't going to happen anytime soon.

If a peace deal is forced on Ukraine it makes a mockery of our previous stance and support and it would only herald a period of constant internal strife that would make The Troubles look like a primary school squabble.

I don't like bullies and history has taught us time and time again that Appeasement does not work.

a reply to: Vermilion

Only two dead?!!!!!

Get real..

And get some humanit

originally posted by: cookalldafood
If not by diplomatic ways then what may I ask is the path to peace that you see?

What you don't seem to understand, is that Putin said Ukraine "has never existed". We see he is committing cultural genocide in the areas he has occupied. He wants to do that to the entire country of Ukraine.

Putin wants to take their whole country whether Ukraine goes to a negotiating table or not. So, why make it easier for him? Why not put up some resistance? Would you give up your entire country and culture just because someone wanted to take it from you?

Sure war is hell and nobody likes it, but living under the rule of a brutal dictator like Putin is an even worse kind of hell, at least according to the Ukrainians who are putting up a big fight to prevent that from happening.

Jake Broe was interviewed and asked what he sees as the path to peace, and I think he's right, the only way it happens is when Putin loses power somehow, whether it's death by natural or unnatural causes, revolution, protests from economic strife or whatever. We hear how good the Russian economy is, but it's focused on making bombs and tanks that get destroyed, so it's not really a good economy when so much production coming from it just gets destroyed. Also, Putin is using up his "war chest", and also using up all the old soviet tanks and artillery that were in storage, so things are going to get a lot worse for Putin when all that runs out in about a year or so. Putin is just hoping Trump will get elected before then and that Trump will save him.

Here's Jake Broe explaining "The Road to how Russia loses the War in Ukraine", but there's a lot more that he doesn't cover too:


In this video, Check Pfarrer covers some of the things that Jake Broe didn't cover:

Russia is in a deadly fix in Ukraine, but does it realize it?

originally posted by: Vermilion
a reply to: Freeborn

I agree with most of your ideas, except.,,

Its not for us to demand or force Ukraine to the negotiating table

Some have made the argument that since we’re funding the Gaza war then we should have a say.
We’re funding the ukies war, shouldn’t we have a say?

Can the US at least say “if you want to lose your whole country so don’t negotiate with Putin, but we can’t fund it anymore, good luck” ?

Are you forgetting the Budapest memorandum? It seems like you are!
Ukraine might not have been attacked at all by Russia if the US hadn't talked them into giving all their nukes to Russia, in exchange for the US and UK (and Russia!) signing the Budapest memorandum, so the US has some responsibility for Ukraine being in this situation. You can bet Ukraine wishes they hadn't listened to the US, and had kept their nukes. They had the third largest nuclear weapon stockpile on the planet!

originally posted by: Arbitrageur
Are you forgetting the Budapest memorandum? It seems like you are!

Ukraine might not have been attacked at all by Russia if the US hadn't talked them into giving all their nukes to Russia, in exchange for the US and UK (and Russia!) signing the Budapest memorandum, so the US has some responsibility for Ukraine being in this situation. You can bet Ukraine wishes they hadn't listened to the US, and had kept their nukes. They had the third largest nuclear weapon stockpile on the planet!

Ridiculous to only point this at the U.S. holding responsibility here.

Since you’re going back to 1991’, we can also go back to the 1950’s when Khrushchev gifted Crimea to Ukraine.

So in essence, we can also say Khrushchev bares some responsibility by transferring the Crimean Oblast from the Russian SFSR to the Ukrainian SSR in 1954.


en.m.wikipedia.org...

Here’s an interesting tidbit from the wiki

According to a 2009 article on Russian website Pravda.ru, the Presidium of the Supreme Council gathered for a session on 19 February 1954 when only 13 of 27 members were present. There was no quorum, but the decision was adopted unanimously.[11]

Mark Kramer professor of Cold War Studies at Harvard University countered that new sources have emerged showing that the republic parliaments of both the Russian SFSR and the Ukrainian SSR had given their consent to the transfer of Crimea and so had complied with Article 18 of the Soviet Constitution which stated that "the territory of a Union Republic may not be altered without its consent.", with the proceedings of the USSR Supreme Soviet Presidium meeting indicate that both the Russian SFSR and the Ukrainian SSR had given their consent via their republic parliaments, although Kramer also said that the "legal system in the Soviet Union was mostly a fiction".[12]

Either way you slice it, Crimea did indeed belong to Russia mostly within these past 248 years.

Which is around when the United States gained independence from Great Britain on July 4th 1776.

And when the Russian Empire in 1783, following the increasing decline of the Ottoman Empire, the Russian Empire annexed the Crimean Khanate.

a reply to: Imhere
Putin occupied Crimea in 2014, but what does Crimea have to do with Putin's invasion of the rest of Ukraine in 2022? Your logic escapes me. Or should I say lack of logic?

Interestingly, Putin's 2022 invasion sort of backfired on Putin as far as Crimea goes. He wanted Crimea to project power into the Black Sea in Sevastopol via his black sea fleet, and what happened? With great embarrassment, Putin was defeated in the black sea by a country that doesn't even have a navy, and he had to move some of his fleet to more distant ports and is now afraid to send his ships into the black sea for fear they will be destroyed or at least severely damaged. Actually the whole invasion of Ukraine has been an embarrassment for Putin, showcasing the ineffectiveness of Russian arms, so that Russian arms sales plummeted after the invasion with his customers cancelling contracts/orders for Russian arms.

a reply to: Arbitrageur

in exchange for the US and UK (and Russia!) signing the Budapest memorandum, so the US has some responsibility for Ukraine being in this situation.

I would argue that the $200,000,000,000 we’re giving them is completely sufficient in fulfilling our side of that agreement.
I could also argue that enormous number is going over and beyond.
Ukraines situation is untenable no matter the money given to them.
They don’t have the manpower.
No more proxy wars as far as I'm concerned.

a reply to: Imhere

Since you’re going back to 1991’, we can also go back to the 1950’s when Khrushchev gifted Crimea to Ukraine.

here's something interesting, and just goes to show the extent of the lies spewed by russia now. note the reason given by khrushchev for giving Crimea to Ukraine.

from your link,

Taking into account the integral character of the economy, the territorial proximity and the close economic and cultural ties between the Crimea Province and the Ukrainian SSR, the Presidium of the USSR Supreme Soviet decrees:

so in 1954 khrushchev and Ukraine all believed that Crimea / Crimean people were closer to Ukraine than russia.

i guess it's just in the eyes of which ever tyrant / tyrannical government leaders / leader who is in charge on how close Crimean people are to Ukraine.
according to the leader / leaders in russia in 2014 all the Crimean people wanted to be russians.

originally posted by: Arbitrageur
a reply to: Imhere
Putin occupied Crimea in 2014, but what does Crimea have to do with Putin's invasion of the rest of Ukraine in 2022? Your logic escapes me. Or should I say lack of logic?

Interestingly, Putin's 2022 invasion sort of backfired on Putin as far as Crimea goes. He wanted Crimea to project power into the Black Sea in Sevastopol via his black sea fleet, and what happened? With great embarrassment, Putin was defeated in the black sea by a country that doesn't even have a navy, and he had to move some of his fleet to more distant ports and is now afraid to send his ships into the black sea for fear they will be destroyed or at least severely damaged. Actually the whole invasion of Ukraine has been an embarrassment for Putin, showcasing the ineffectiveness of Russian arms, so that Russian arms sales plummeted after the invasion with his customers cancelling contracts/orders for Russian arms.

Well, Ukraine shutting the water off to the Crimea’s population after 2014 didn’t help things either.

In case you forgot, or didn’t know:

Ukraine shut down the canal in 2014 soon after Russia annexed Crimea.

Russia restored the flow of water in March 2022 during the Russian invasion of Ukraine. A 2015 study found that the canal had been providing 85% of Crimea's water prior to the 2014 shutdown.

Of the water from the canal, 72% went to agriculture and 10% to industry, while water for drinking and other public uses made up 18%.[2]

en.wikipedia.org...

a reply to: Imhere

Russia attacked Ukrainian power plants in winter, embargoed wheat going to third world countries, hit critical civilian infrastructure, and hit apartment buildings, shopping centers, and hospitals.

a reply to: Imhere

The whole of Ireland was under English/British rule for over 700 years from 1169 till 1922 when The Republic of Ireland became independent.

Does that mean the UK has every right to dictate RoI foreign policy and to invade and subjugate the Irish people to British rule if we don't like how RoI is being governed?

Of course not!
The Republic of Ireland is an independent country and it chooses its own path, as is right and proper.

How is that different to Ukraine and Russia?

a reply to: Freeborn

But I've got to be honest here and say I don't think Russia would have deliberately targeted this children's hospital

Remember all of those hospitals Putin targeted in Syria ?
Reports that analysis of the video showing the strikes gives a high likelihood the hospital was the target according to Sky news , there's a meeting of the UN Security Council being held today due to the incident.

Chinese troops arrive in Belarus - as countries launch military drills near Polish border

"In the wake of Moscow's deadliest airstrikes in Ukraine for months, China and Belarus have started joint military exercises near the Polish border - all on the eve of a NATO summit in Washington." news.sky.com...

a reply to: Freeborn

Meanwhile, Ireland has had its hard-won sovereignty sold to unelected Eurocrats in Brussels. F Me, what a world.

Cheers

8 July Update

A Russian Kh-101 cruise missile hit the Okhmatdyt Children's Hospital in central Kyiv during a wider series of missile strikes targeting critical Ukrainian infrastructure throughout the day on July 8. Ukrainian Air Force Commander Lieutenant General Mykola Oleshchuk stated that Russian forces conducted two rounds of combined missile strikes on July 8—first launching four Kh-101 cruise missiles from Saratov Oblast and two Iskander-M ballistic missiles from occupied Crimea and Kursk Oblast overnight on July 7 to 8, and then launching a second wave of missiles, including one Kh-47 Kinzhal aeroballistic missile, four Iskander-M ballistic missiles, one 3M22 Zircon cruise missile, 13 Kh-101 cruise missiles, 14 Kalibr cruise missiles, two Kh-22 cruise missiles, and three Kh-59/69 guided air missiles around 1000 local time on July 8.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and People's Republic of China (PRC) President Xi Jinping continued to posture themselves as potential mediators to an end to the war in Ukraine during a July 8 meeting in Beijing, despite Russian President Vladimir Putin's rejection of serious negotiations or any third-party mediation.

Ukrainian forces recently regained lost positions in Chasiv Yar, and Russian forces recently advanced near Donetsk City and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.

More at URL above.

Cheers

originally posted by: Freeborn
a reply to: Imhere

The whole of Ireland was under English/British rule for over 700 years from 1169 till 1922 when The Republic of Ireland became independent.

Does that mean the UK has every right to dictate RoI foreign policy and to invade and subjugate the Irish people to British rule if we don't like how RoI is being governed?

Of course not!
The Republic of Ireland is an independent country and it chooses its own path, as is right and proper.

How is that different to Ukraine and Russia?

You said a page ago that Crimea is more or less a done deal.

Agreed there.

However, you continued on saying that things may change in the future.

We’ll shall see. But seems unlikely. Or at least anytime soon.

Because Zelensky tried last year, with the TikTok “hyped” summer offensive, which fell flat. And Robotyne fell back in Russian hands not long ago.

Why do you think Trump, and half of the USA including me is sick and tired seeing money being thrown into the dumpster fire over there? Especially after last year’s failed summer offensive?

It does seem that the time is coming up for some type of negotiations. Or else Russia is going to keep chipping away

You have to remember Ukraine has less man power than Russia. And the more this drags on the more it’ll get worse where Zelensky will scream for article 5 coming up. If he hasn’t done so already.

At least you’re fair on the assessment of Crimea. Unlike others/ultra pro Zelensky supporters who were just cheering in denial about some “Crimean beach party” last year etc.

originally posted by: Freeborn
a reply to: kwaka

And still no mention of any consideration at all for what the Ukrainian people themselves want.

You speak repeatedly about Biden/Trump and Putin, not a single mention of what those actually living there and who's land it actually is think or want.
Actions speak louder than words....the majority are resisting the invasion with all their might.

As for Russia being up for negotiations - have you seen their pre-conditions?
It amounts to a capitulation and caving in to all of Putin's demands - and that's before negotiations even start.
No way on earth will Ukraine agree to that....and rightly so.

The previous poster is probably correct; Crimea is more or less and done deal at present. But who knows what the future brings. Russia has a history of giving up on these long campaigns that don't go as expected for them - look at WWI and Afghanistan.

a reply to: Imhere

Where is your outrage/condemnation of Russia's attack on a Children's Hospital?

Ukraine have responded to the Russia's attack on Kyiv with a mass drone attack on several targets in Russia , video also contains new footage of Russia's attack and Ukrainian troops fighting in Chasiv Yar.

www.forbes.com...

"The Russian force in Ukraine loses nearly 100 tanks a month, according to analysts who scrutinize social media to identify destroyed vehicles. At the same time, Russian industry builds no more than 50 new tanks a month."

a reply to: Imhere

Your silence is deafening.....

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

Meanwhile, Ireland has had its hard-won sovereignty sold to unelected Eurocrats in Brussels. F Me, what a world.

Ireland has chosen that road.
That's their choice.

Here in the UK we've got to be steadfast in making sure Starmer doesn't try to go against the will of the people and try to steer us back into the clutches of the EU either overtly or covertly.

Many of those Red Wall constituencies that returned to Labour are also staunchly pro-Brexit.
If he thinks he can cross them and all the Reform voters then he truly is an idiot because his party will then get an even bigger kicking than The Tories have just had.

But I guess that's a discussion for some other time my friend.