Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 3

originally posted by: Imhere
A lot of chatter about Krasnogorovka falling recently, also seen on “ISW” map updates.

Once that falls, it’ll collapse the front by Donetsk.

We will probably see the advancement/collapse on “ISW” in the coming weeks. As Russians forces are now in the center.

When you posted that yesterday, I went to the latest ISW map, and there is no Krasnogorovka, what is that, a Putin spelling since you're a Putin bootlicker? They spell it Krasnohorivka, if that's what you mean, it's in the bottom most green circle in this image indicating an area of active fighting recently. Is that the town you refer to? Because the advances the map shows are such tiny slivers of orange, they are barely visible, and this map is zoomed in on this area.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 16, 2024


Not only are the recent advances very small (maybe the width of the "s" in Krasnohorivka on that map), but look at the advance from the territory in darker red to their current position, what is that, about 6 kilometers? That's all the "great Russian army" was able to advance in that direction? They made much greater progress to the north of that where the other fighting is going on, like Ocheretyne, advancing over 20 kilometers. Some of those larger advances were made this year when the US had cut off support to Ukraine until very recently and some supplies still will take another month to reach the front line.

Once Ukraine fully receives the additional support from the US, they should be able to do a better job defending themselves and slow down Russian progress. Ukraine has done better than just hold the line in Kharkiv, they have actually pushed the Russians back with counter-attacks and the Russians have experienced large losses there. There are interviews of a couple of the Russians among the 12% who survived the initial attacks there, which means 88% of the Russian forces were killed or wounded. That's a big part of the topic for this recent video from reporting from Ukraine:

17 Jun: “Only 12% Survive the First Attack” Last Words of a Russian Soldier UNRAVEL TERRIFYING TRUTH


The losses are large, but per your previous smart-ass comment, I'm not sure I'd use the word "pyrrhic". Ukraine is apparently killing or wounding about 20,000-30,000 Russian soldiers a month, and Putin is barely keeping pace with that, getting replacement recruits and volunteers at about the same rate. But most of those get barely any training at all which is part of the reason why they are getting 88% losses such as these, and some people think the Russian losses are not sustainable. One problem Putin is having now for example, is he is offering so much bonus money and salary for volunteers to join the army, that factory wages can't compete and some of his factory workers are joining the army for the higher pay. So then he has to raise wages to recruit more people to the factories and that's why inflation has been spiraling in Russia and they are offering insanely high interest rates to try to keep that in check.

In this video, Lt. General Ben Hodges talks about why the Russian losses are unsustainable, beyond next year.

'The Kremlin knows this is not sustainable' as Putin's losses mount in Ukraine



Not only the human losses, but all the old mothballed artillery and tanks they have been refurbishing and putting back into service are going to be depleted perhaps in the next year or two. You can see satellite photos of the inventories of these old Soviet era tanks and artillery pieces going down, down, down, and some storage sites are almost empty already.

originally posted by: gortex
a reply to: Arbitrageur

While it's true Russia are buying a lot of shells from DPRK they're discovering that if you buy your ordinance from AliExpress you're probably no going to get what you were expecting.

Yes, North Korea is screwing Russia with low quality shells, not sure if that's all they have or if they have any higher quality stocks.

The article I read said it was apprently some kind of barter where Russia needed shells, and North Korea needed food, so in exchange for the poor quality shells, Russia gave N Korea low quality food, specifically, it was past the expiration date, and N Korea wasn't too happy about it when they saw it was already expired. So I think they are both screwing each other with bad quality stuff in that exchange. I can't find the link to that story right now, but I think it was posted earlier in this thread, so if' you've been following this thread, you may have seen it.

When Ukraine says they are killing or wounding over 1000 Russian soldiers a day, they aren't even counting the Russians blowing themselves up with mis-firing N Korean shells, that's just a bonus. As your source says, the accuracy is also lower when they do work, but I'm not sure the Russian shells are all that accurate either, especially since they probably exceed the useful barrel life and accuracy goes down with advanced barrel wear, even with better shells.

a reply to: Imhere

Sorry, but the BS is all yours. That map does not show what you claim it does.

Cavv posts links, be nice if you had the common courtesy to do the same so lose the snark.

All you have is unsourced chatter.

originally posted by: Oldcarpy2
a reply to: Imhere

Sorry, but the BS is all yours. That map does not show what you claim it does.

Cavv posts links, be nice if you had the common courtesy to do the same so lose the snark.

All you have is unsourced chatter.

Can you quote what I claimed?

I clearly said Russian forces reached the center. Which is correct.

And it is fact checked on ISW’s interactive map. Which is one of the go-to news/map sources for some posters here.

So there you go.

a reply to: Imhere

Yes, I can:

"A lot of chatter about Krasnogorovka falling recently, also seen on “ISW” map updates."

So there you go.

a reply to: Imhere

"It’s pretty self explanatory to anyone that knows how to use a mouse and keyboard".

So much for us poor sods that are on their phones?

originally posted by: Oldcarpy2
a reply to: Imhere

"It’s pretty self explanatory to anyone that knows how to use a mouse and keyboard".

So much for us poor sods that are on their phones?

I understand you have difficulties looking at an interactive map on a website. Especially one that multiple people refer to all the time on here.

It’s the map on ISW.

Again, it’s pretty self explanatory. Other than that, I can’t assist you further.

a reply to: Arbitrageur

Ukraine has done better than just hold the line in Kharkiv, they have actually pushed the Russians back with counter-attacks and the Russians have experienced large losses there.

That's good news, if accurate. Thanks for the update.

A little humour in serious times , The World's Watching.

a reply to: Imhere

How's it going in Kharkiv?

originally posted by: Oldcarpy2
a reply to: Imhere

How's it going in Kharkiv?

Belgorod hasn’t been bombed in weeks apparently.

Seems like the buffer and foothold is in place. By Lyptsi and Vovchansk etc.

Your thoughts?

a reply to: Arbitrageur

Those authoritarian governments have to stick together no matter what.

Love how people are acting as if Russia is some rebel going up against the NWO while they solidify another axis that consists of purely dictators.

The west certainly has our flaws and bad politicians, but at least there are shifts and changes.

Look at the EU, there were just sweeping changes to get a more right leaning parliament. I suspect this is based off their disgruntlement towards too loose of an immigration policy and failing economic policies.

What can North Korea, China, and Russia do? Get arrested for holding blank signs in protest?

How embarrassing , Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Defence Minister Andrei Belousov and the two Russian deputy Prime Ministers were ejected before Putin's meeting with Kim Jong Un yesterday for a breach of protocol , seems they thought etiquette didn't apply to people as great as themselves when they entered the conference room before the two leaders.

a reply to: gortex

Funny to read the Russian troll factory comments trying to put a positive spin on this.

You can't polish a turd.

originally posted by: Cvastar
That's good news, if accurate. Thanks for the update.

You're welcome.
The latest ISW update contains more specifics, see below.

originally posted by: Imhere

originally posted by: Oldcarpy2
a reply to: Imhere

How's it going in Kharkiv?

Belgorod hasn’t been bombed in weeks apparently.

Seems like the buffer and foothold is in place. By Lyptsi and Vovchansk etc.

Your thoughts?

ISW says even a prominent Russian milblogger admitted Ukraine re-captured Tykhe!

I think that was days ago. And I heard from 100-500 Russians were surrounded by Ukraine in a plant in the area, ISW says 200 but some may have surrendered already. They are unable to get resupplied with food or ammo, being surrounded like that.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 19, 2024

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Kharkiv Oblast (Russian objective: Push Ukrainian forces back from the international border with Belgorod Oblast and approach to within tube artillery range of Kharkiv City)

Ukrainian forces reportedly recently recaptured Tykhe and advanced elsewhere northeast of Kharkiv City amid continued Russian offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast on June 19. A prominent Russian milblogger reported on June 17 and 18 that Ukrainian forces seized Tykhe (immediately east of Vovchansk) and that Russian forces conducted airstrikes against the settlement, suggesting that Ukrainian forces likely seized the settlement within the past few days.[35] Geolocated footage published on June 10 and 18 shows that Ukrainian forces also recently recaptured areas in southern and central Starytsya (southwest of Vovchansk), and a Ukrainian battalion operating in the area reported on June 10 and 18 that it recaptured positions near Starytsya.[36] Ukrainian Kharkiv Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Yuriy Povkh stated on June 19 that Ukrainian forces have "blocked" dozens of Russian soldiers in an unspecified fortified area in Vovchansk.[37] ISW recently observed reports that Ukrainian forces encircled up to 200 Russian personnel in the Vovchansk Aggregate Plant in the central part of the city, although Povkh did not name the Aggregate Plant in his comment.[38] A Ukrainian source reported on June 18 that Russian forces struck Vovchansk with 13 guided glide bombs within a single hour, which indicates that Russian forces may prepare for a limited offensive push in Vovchansk in the coming days.[39] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces continued to advance within northern Vovchansk and towards Tykhe, but ISW has not observed confirmation of these claims.[40] One milblogger claimed that there is little information about Vovchansk because much of the information is old news and reported with a "positive slant."[41] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces continued ground attacks near Vovchansk and north of Kharkiv City near Lyptsi on June 18 and 19.[42] Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces have somewhat reduced the intensity of their counterattacks within and south of Hlyboke (north of Kharkiv City) but that the overall intensity of fighting in the area remains high.[43] Russian milbloggers continued to claim that Ukrainian forces are bringing forward reserves in the Kharkiv direction to prepare for further counterattacks.[44]

originally posted by: gortex
A little humour in serious times , The World's Watching.

Thanks for the laugh, it's funny because it's true, well, mostly. They left out North Korea, but yes China is watching very closely how the West deals with Russia as it considers an invasion of Taiwan.

In Kharkiv, I don't think the 500 or whatever the number was of Russians surrounded in the plant in Vovchansk are such a big deal, considering Ukraine says they kill or would a thousand Russians a day, so even 500 would be only half that. But since their fate seems to be death by either starvation or surrender, it's a more interesting news story than the 1000 a day killed or wounded because there are unusually large numbers surrendering, according to this (en masse surrenders means by the dozens and it says this is unusual to have that many Russians surrender in such a short time):

Hundreds of Russians ambushed in Kharkiv are now surrendering en masse


Only the first half of that video (about 2 minutes) seems relevant. The second half is just some wounded guy with a tourniquet on his leg riding in the back of a truck used as a makeshift ambulance. He's mostly blurred out anyway.

This video is relevant and gives more details, saying they couldn't reach the surrounded Russians by vehicle or in person so the Russians tried sending drones to resupply them, which worked a short time but Ukraine has been taking those drones out lately to completely cut off the re-supply, which may be why Russians are surrendering "en masse". This video also gives details about how Ukraine is sending reinforcements to the area and the progress they are making in an attempt to encircle an even larger group of Russians like the ones trying to rescue the Russians trapped in the plant. But at the same time, Russia is pounding the city with aviation gliding bombs which is inevitably resulting in friendly fire against the Russians in the city, including those who are trapped and surrounded.

19 Jun: NICE. Russian Rescue Forces GET TRAPPED TOO! | War in Ukraine Explained

a reply to: Imhere

I'd like you thoughts on Kharkiv?

originally posted by: Imhere
"originally posted by: F2d5thCavv2"
"18 May "
"Russian forces have recently intensified their effort to seize the operationally significant town of Chasiv Yar"

Don’t worry

When Russia takes it coming up, you’ll have Oldcarpy here in 2 seconds declaring it was some “Pyrrhic victory”

Coming up when? That was a month ago.

I'm seeing the Russian attacks, and the Russian losses, but so far not seeing the victory. I think Chasiv Yar is going to be difficult for Russia to take completely.

A significant feature there is a canal which cuts the town in two, a larger western part and a smaller eastern part. Ukraine still holds some small territory east of the canal, but I suspect despite their putting up a big fight there, they will eventually lose the territory east of the canal, and Russians will advance to the canal. But when that happens Ukraine will destroy the bridges that cross the canal, and they have defense lines at the canal which will be hard to breach.

This video talks about Russia's attempt to attack the part west of the canal teenage mutant ninja turtle style by literally traveling through water pipes, but somehow Ukraine was able to see the Russians on thermal imaging advancing through the pipes, and let's say the outcome of that effort was way more pyrrhic than victory. As explained in this video, the Russians trying to launch a surprise attack from the pipes were surprised themselves when they were destroyed in the pipes.

20 Jun: CAUGHT IN DIRT. Ukrainians Ambush A HUGE GROUP OF RUSSIANS HIDING IN THE PIPES.

the Russians decided to exploit the local network of water pipes to covertly accumulate forces. Their plan was to launch surprise assaults from the pipes with large numbers of troops simultaneously. The goal of this new tactic was to help establish a bridgehead on the western side of the canal, enabling direct assaults on the Novy district. Unfortunately for the Russians, the Ukrainians maintained constant surveillance and reconnaissance over the pipes using drones. Combat footage shows the Ukrainians employing thermal cameras on drones to detect Russian troops within the pipes. They then used drone-dropped grenades to target small gaps in the pipes, effectively eliminating the Russian soldiers with precision. Additionally, the drones provided accurate coordinates for mortar operators to strike the pipes and create breaches, allowing drone operators to engage the Russians moving inside. The full uncensored footage of the attack can be found on our Telegram through the link in the description. As a result of the well-coordinated and precise operations by Ukrainian forces, the pipe network became a graveyard for Russian troops, leading to a halt in further assaults. The heavy Russian losses from these failed attempts created an opportunity for the Ukrainians to launch a counterattack.

a reply to: Arbitrageur

Nothing from me about a Pyrrhic victory as there has been no "victory", coming up or otherwise.

Russia have thrown another 1,100 troops into the meat grinder that is Ukraine in just one day with losses in the second front Kherson region making up part of that number.

Russia's losses in the war in Ukraine as of the morning of Saturday, June 22, amounted to 1,110 occupiers, the total number of losses of the Russian army since the beginning of the invasion is 533,090 soldiers. In addition, the Armed Forces destroyed four missiles and 8 tanks. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said this in a post on Facebook.
There is an intensification of hostilities in the Pokrovsk region, Kherson region and in the area of the Toretsky region.
The occupiers have intensified their attacks to advance the offensive on Chasiv Yar from the south, which may aggravate the situation at the front.
Unsuccessful attempts to advance near Kupyansk and Svatov were also recorded from the front, which indicates the lack of success in the actions of the occupiers. On the front during the day of June 21, 120 combat clashes took place, and the heated situation remains in the Pokrovsky direction. At the same time, the Russian occupiers intensified their assaults in the Kherson region, but they did not succeed there.