Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 3

a reply to: imitator

Another significant loss for Ukraine...

Putin's United Russia party has won regional and local elections held by Russia in four occupied Ukrainian regions.

Wow , who would have thought that would happen !

originally posted by: Xtrozero

originally posted by: ufoorbhunter

Yet Erno why is it our business?

That there is the conundrum. When we don't make it our business we get WWII. When then do we make it our business? When China takes Japan and let's say 5 or 6 other countries, when Russia gets the old gang back together buy taking each country one by one?

I don't know the answer either, but the Ukraine war is about 6% of our military cost with no loss of life on our end, so what is it you want to see changed?

#

I have absolutely no idea what I need to see changed. Been on the Titanic White star all day so if you can give me a day or so to consider the reality of the response totally awseome and appreciated. Love you for ever Extro x

originally posted by: imitator
Another significant loss for Ukraine...

Putin's United Russia party has won regional and local elections held by Russia in four occupied Ukrainian regions.

You forgot to add the laughing face to show you were joking when you said that!

But you got me to laugh anyway, that was funny the way you said that as if you almost believe it!


Ukraine criticises Russian ‘fake elections’ in occupied regions

“Russia’s pseudo-elections in the temporarily occupied territories are negligible. They will have no legal consequences and will not lead to a change in the status of the Ukrainian territories captured by the Russian army. By organising fake elections in the Ukrainian regions and Crimea, the Kremlin continues to delegitimise the Russian legal system,” the ministry said.

The US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, said in Kyiv on Thursday that “Russia’s sham elections in occupied areas of Ukraine are illegitimate”, and the Council of Europe has called them a “flagrant violation of international law”.

I wouldn't expect anybody except those hopelessly steeped in Russian propaganda to believe those sham elections.

Besides, it's not really a new thing, they already had sham elections last year, though the oblasts where the elections were held are smaller this year, especially Kherson, where Ukraine reclaimed a lot of its territory, after Russian soldiers abandoned it when Ukraine cut off their supplies.

Russia’s lack of control of the Ukrainian territory was on display again on Friday when three people were killed in a Russian airstrike in the village of Odradakamianka, in the Kherson region. Putin nominally annexed the region last September but the Russian army has since abandoned large swaths of the territory due to a Ukrainian counteroffensive.

10 September Update

Ukrainian forces continued to advance south of Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast and reportedly advanced near Bakhmut on September 10. Geolocated footage posted on September 10 shows that Ukrainian forces have advanced east of Novoprokopivka (18km southeast of Orikhiv).

Russian forces conducted a series of Shahed-131/-136 drone strikes targeting Kyiv Oblast on the night of September 9 to 10. Ukrainian military sources reported on September 10 that Ukrainian forces downed 26 of 33 drones that Russian forces launched from the direction of Kursk Oblast.

Russia held the final day of voting for regional elections on September 10 amid reports of electoral falsifications and intimidation.

Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and reportedly regained some lost positions in some areas.

More at URL above.

Cheers

Reports today that Ukrainian forces re-took four oil platforms off the coast of Crimea.

Cheers

a reply to: imitator

"Another significant loss for Ukraine."

LOL!


Like there was any chance that Russia might have lost these sham elections?

originally posted by: F2d5thCavv2
Reports today that Ukrainian forces re-took four oil platforms off the coast of Crimea.

Cheers

Russian can't even keep the stuff they stole. Ukraine with no navy to speak of has the black sea fleet in hiding. And now taking back their oil Riggs I had my doubts about the possibility of retaking Crimea that has switched to its just a matter of time.

11 September Update

Ukrainian military officials announced on September 11 that Ukrainian forces have liberated 2 square kilometers of territory in the Bakhmut direction over the past week and have made gains near Klishchiivka (6km southwest of Bakhmut) and Andriiivka (9km southwest of Bakhmut). . . . Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar also stated that Ukrainian forces have gained a total of 4.8 square kilometers in the Tavriisk (Zaporizhia) operational direction over the past week, particularly south of Robotyne (10km south of Orikhiv) and west of Verbove (20km southeast of Orikhiv).

Russian forces conducted a series of Shahed-131/136 drone strikes targeting southern Ukraine on the night of September 10 to 11. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces shot down 12 Shaheds over Zaporizhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Mykolaiv oblasts and another unspecified drone.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet in Vladivostok in the coming days...

US and Armenian forces began joint military exercises in Armenia on September 11. The Armenian Ministry of Defense stated that the joint US-Armenian “Eagle Partner 2023” exercises will prepare Armenian forces to take part in international peacekeeping missions and will last until September 20.

Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced in some areas on September 11.

More at URL above.

Cheers

originally posted by: dragonridr

originally posted by: F2d5thCavv2
Reports today that Ukrainian forces re-took four oil platforms off the coast of Crimea.

Cheers

Russian can't even keep the stuff they stole. Ukraine with no navy to speak of has the black sea fleet in hiding. And now taking back their oil Riggs I had my doubts about the possibility of retaking Crimea that has switched to its just a matter of time.

Bahkmut isn’t even under any real threat right now being retaken.

So do you really think Crimea will flip over here with a couple limited tabloid bs like these? Which Zelensky needs to show because the summer offensive basically yielded to jack sh*t.

How much are you REALLY willing to wage that Crimea will be dislodged soon or in the near foreseeable future?

a reply to: Imhere


I initially had my doubts but now with the raids in to Crimea the destruction of the basses their and lack of a navy. Makes me think Russia is on borrowed time. I'm 100 percent certain Ukrainians are already running around in Crimea.

IF they published raids i guarantee others they have not. A small group in Crimea can cause a lot of damage. ukrainians have already shown they can reach anywhere in Crimea. And what truly changed my mind is the black sea fleet is in hiding fearing it will be sunk.

Russia can't afford the loss of its fleet and Ukraine is trying desperately ro goad them out of port. The other reason is the lack of strategic thinking by the Russians. They know Ukraine is isolating Crimea but can't come up with effective counter measures

originally posted by: dragonridr
a reply to: Imhere


I initially had my doubts but now with the raids in to Crimea the destruction of the basses their and lack of a navy. Makes me think Russia is on borrowed time. I'm 100 percent certain Ukrainians are already running around in Crimea.

IF they published raids i guarantee others they have not. A small group in Crimea can cause a lot of damage. ukrainians have already shown they can reach anywhere in Crimea. And what truly changed my mind is the black sea fleet is in hiding fearing it will be sunk.

Russia can't afford the loss of its fleet and Ukraine is trying desperately ro goad them out of port. The other reason is the lack of strategic thinking by the Russians. They know Ukraine is isolating Crimea but can't come up with effective counter measures

It actually gets pretty hilarious.

I’m going to point you to “VladimirS” …

as a Russian I can tell you we are not winning the illegal conquest of Ukraine and your statement is absolute naive stupid Russian bot rhetorical propaganda.

Followed by Oldcarpy a couple days ago

Refreshing!

And welcome to ATS.

Now, here’s what “VladimirS” said about a month ago…

It is futile. We Russians now no it is over and want out. We give back the east but keep crimea.

Yet says keep Crimea.

Point is, if Bakhmut isn’t under any real threat of being taken over, what makes you think Crimea is?

I’d be reserved. But everyone has opinions.


P.S. there’s a plot twist chance that “VladimirS” is actually “oldcarpy” and knows himself that Crimea is a lost cause.

originally posted by: Imhere
... and knows himself that Crimea is a lost cause.

A lost cause for whom?

I would say that it'll be a significant challenge for Ukraine to liberate Crimea, but also a massive challenge for Russia to keep their jackboots on the ground. Crimea could be easily defendable by Russia, or a trap if Crimea's cut-off. Let's wait to see how this pans out, shall we?

a reply to: Imhere

"P.S. there’s a plot twist chance that “VladimirS” is actually “oldcarpy” and knows himself that Crimea is a lost cause."

Nope, no chance at all, matey.



Bakhmut is a pile of rubble.

a reply to: Imhere

"It actually gets pretty hilarious."

No, it doesn't.

What sort of person thinks it is?

originally posted by: paraphi
I would say that it'll be a significant challenge for Ukraine to liberate Crimea, but also a massive challenge for Russia to keep their jackboots on the ground. Crimea could be easily defendable by Russia, or a trap if Crimea's cut-off. Let's wait to see how this pans out, shall we?

The real question is, can Crimea be cut off or isolated, and blocked from re-supply?

Ukraine was able to isolate Kherson on the west bank of the Dnipro river, and after the Russian troops couldn't be adequately re-supplied, it was just a matter of time until the Russians were forced to withdraw.

Isolating Crimea will be harder but it's not impossible. Ukraine is slowly making progress south to eventually cut off the land bridge, which may take some years, but possibly by 2025 or 2026 I think they might be able to cut the land bridge. Once they have done that, they need to destroy the Kerch bridge, and prevent re-supply at any sea ports. Ukraine doesn't have much of a Navy but they do have the Neptune missiles that sunk the Moskva and if they can sink the Moskva, they can probably sink any other Russian ships in the Black sea. Ukraine also has their explosive-laden drone boats they can launch in swarms. Once Crimea is completely cut off, it will be just a matter of time like in Kherson before the Russians have to withdraw. Or Putin might use tactical nukes instead of withdrawing from Crimea, which would drag NATO into the war with a conventional response, and then Russia doesn't have a chance against a full conventional response from NATO.

Until Ukraine makes more progress by about 2026, I think their objective isn't to take Crimea this year but to make life hell for the Russians there:

Ukraine's military may not be able to retake Crimea, but it can make life hell for Russians there, experts say

Retaking the peninsula would be tough, but Ukrainian forces can isolate it, two US experts say...

Rather than a costly ground offensive to liberate Crimea from Russian control, there may be an easier way: Use unmanned boats to attack Russian forces and blockade the peninsula, argue two American experts.

Ukraine does not "need to drive occupying forces out of Crimea to render it less hospitable to Russia's purposes," William Courtney and Scott Savitz, two researchers at the RAND Corporation think tank, wrote in an essay published by The Moscow Times in April.

The defense lines at the southern front in Zaporizhia have a lot of mines, both anti-tank and anti-personnel mines. I posted recently about the thermal imaging Ukraine uses to help find mines, which is especially effective on the large anti-tank mines. The anti-personnel mines are smaller and can be harder to detect. Ukraine improvised a remote controlled robot to set off any small anti-personnel mines they missed, what do you think of it?


You can see a video of it at time index 1:40 in this video:

It looks like fairly simple, economical yet effective construction.

The next few minutes of that video discusses how the Russians are resisting Ukraine's advances, but Ukraine is still making slow progress south. Ukraine's reinforcements got sidetracked defending against a flank attack from Russia, so it would probably be a good idea for Ukraine to widen their salient before they go much further south of Robotnye, to reduce the risk of such attacks and even the risk of being encircled when they continue south.

a reply to: imitator




I'm sure it's totally legit

12 September Update

Ukrainian military sources stated that Ukrainian forces are conducting active offensive operations near Klishchiivka (6km southwest of Bakhmut). The Ukrainian General Staff also stated that Ukrainian forces were additionally successful south and southeast of Robotyne (about 13km south of Orikhiv).

The United Kingdom Ministry of Defense (UK MoD) stated that Russian authorities have moved short and medium-range air defense systems, including Pantsir-S1 systems, to elevated positions around Moscow City to target drones.

Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, along the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia and advanced in some areas on September 12.

More at URL above.

Cheers

A Ukrainian attack targeting the headquarters of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet in Crimea damaged two ships and triggered a large blaze at a sprawling naval shipyard that plays a critical role in the Russian war effort, according to Russian and Ukrainian officials.


Go, Ukraine go!

Meanwhile, Putin’s desperation is showing by cozing up off with Kim.

a reply to: knoxie

10 Storm Shadow cruise missiles, apparently:

www.independent.co.uk...