Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 2

a reply to: randomuser

The info update on Russia-Japan is pretty interesting.

late double post lol. Sorry.

a reply to: Xcathdra


I think the word is 'frightening'.

We have treaty obligations to defend Japan, this is an attempt by Japan to use that fact to steal the islands.

I don't like this one bit, it's not smart to poke a wounded and cornered bear, and that's exactly what this is.

This is way beyond biden's b52 flights dumb.

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

Perhaps there are shades of the WW2 German army reconstitution units with reinforcements and equipment. Typically, German divisions were wiped out on the Russian Front and recreated and dispatched back into the meat grinder. As the Germans ran out of personnel, the strength of their divisions shrunk dramatically.

The Russians have the option of drawing upon poorly trained conscripts. But replacing equipment and pre-deployment training in combined arms are separate matters. Moreover, like Hitler, Putin doesn't care or notice battlefield causalities. So the level of international support received by Ukraine is likely a determining factor in the war's outcome.

a reply to: PatriotGames4u

I would say Russia stole and illegally occupied the islands as Japan claims. Also this has been an ongoing issue since the end of WW2 so its not like its a surprise.

I am seeing conflicting claims about who controls Izyum (sp).

originally posted by: Xcathdra
a reply to: PatriotGames4u

I would say Russia stole and illegally occupied the islands as Japan claims. Also this has been an ongoing issue since the end of WW2 so its not like its a surprise.

I am seeing conflicting claims about who controls Izyum (sp).

I would say the same about the islands, but this is not the time or the forum, the islands are not worth a war between the U.S. and russia.


Same for me on Izyum, pretty sure that means the battle hasn't ended yet.

a reply to: xpert11


Good analysis.

I'll throw in a few more bits to consider:

- russia has an endless supply of older military equipment, they aren't gonna run out of that.

- russia doesn't appear able to rapidly conscript folks in any where near the numbers that hitler could, even on a proportional scale.

- russia appears to be affected by bad economics and international PR/reputation in ways that hitler never had to worry about.

- putin is a wounded and cornered bear with nukes.

originally posted by: PatriotGames4u
- putin is a wounded and cornered bear with nukes.

All the more reason to put the bear down...

a reply to: Xcathdra


Yes.

But not by the U.S. fighting a war with russia over insignificant Japanese Islands.

That's not why we agreed to defend Japan.

a reply to: PatriotGames4u

I say Japan just needs to recognize the islands in question as separate republics wishing to rejoin Japan.

If the excuse works for Russia....

a reply to: Xcathdra

Energoatom claimed the pullout happened after soldiers received "significant doses" of radiation from digging trenches in the forest in the exclusion zone around the closed plant.

Energoatom is the Ukrainian company that runs Cherynobol, they confirm both that the russians have left, and the radiation exposure problems they had.

Not much else in the link though.


www.foxnews.com...

originally posted by: PatriotGames4u
a reply to: xpert11


Good analysis.

I'll throw in a few more bits to consider:

- russia has an endless supply of older military equipment, they aren't gonna run out of that.

But is the equipment in working or order? Skipping maintenance is one of the Russian military's Achilles heels.

- russia doesn't appear able to rapidly conscript folks in any where near the numbers that hitler could, even on a proportional scale.

As far as I know, the Russians replace or rotate individuals and not battalions or brigades. So they also face the problem of front line units lacking cohesion. Moreover, unlike their historical German counterparts, they cannot absorb replacements in a well-oiled machine.

russia appears to be affected by bad economics and international PR/reputation in ways that hitler never had to worry about.

Germany faced fuel shortages, so they had their share of handicaps. Moreover, I can't fully address that point without going off-topic. But I do have Adam Tooze's The Wages of Destruction The Making and Breaking of the Nazi Economy on order.

- putin is a wounded and cornered bear with nukes.

IMO if a Western Front style stalemate occurs in Ukraine, the chances of Russia employing nukes or chemical weapons in an effort to break the deadlock increase.

a reply to: xpert11


Russian equipment has a reputation for being relatively easy to repair, but not for being in a state of good repair.

Even smaller on the rotations and replenishments, russia appears to be doing so at the BTG level, which is typically 600-800 troops, and it doesn't appear that they have many trained soldiers in those replacements either. Plenty of old equipment though when they get it working.

Nothing else to add to that great analysis.

a reply to: xpert11

ISW has mentioned the Russians are not only grabbing conscripts, but the trainers and instructors at their facilities in which they conduct basic military instruction. Once those guys are gone, they have to literally rebuild the entire military training system.

That's something else Germany did in the war, but the Germans waited until a given military district was being overrun before deploying their training cadres to combat.

Cheers

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2


I saw that too, and the fact that they just pulled some of their best units out of Syria for the Ukrainian meat grinder.

I didn't post anything from ISW today because I'm not quite sure what to make of some of their bold analysis yet, but I highly recommend that everyone reads it for themselves.



Random's video had a different 'feel' today too, including some short drone footage of bombed out cities.

He may have even included a subtle shout out to this thread, but need a second example for confirmation, perhaps ' hardly a big deal'?

originally posted by: F2d5thCavv2
a reply to: xpert11

ISW has mentioned the Russians are not only grabbing conscripts, but the trainers and instructors at their facilities in which they conduct basic military instruction. Once those guys are gone, they have to literally rebuild the entire military training system.

But are the Russians wholesale redeploying trainers and instructors to the front line, or is it a part of the standard personnel rotation undertaken by militaries?

That's something else Germany did in the war, but the Germans waited until a given military district was being overrun before deploying their training cadres to combat.

The Luftwaffe withdrew instructors from their flight schools to meet the demand for transport pilots in the doomed efforts to resupply Stalingrad. But attrition and later fuel shortages broke the back of the Luftwaffe.

I have read in a variety of news feeds that as the Russians withdraw/retreat/run away from Kyiv and the surrounding areas, the liberating Ukrainians are sadly uncovering atrocities. The Russians have not moved on from the 1940s, if this is true.

a reply to: paraphi

I've heard the same thing. One of the towns that was under Russian occupation for almost a month, when the Russians finally left, they were finding civilians randomly shot in the street. Some of the corpse's had their hands / arms tied up - all civilians.

I am also hearing reports that towns under Russian occupation are seeing their mayors executed.

a reply to: xpert11

As the Germans ran out of personnel, the strength of their divisions shrunk dramatically.

Soviets did the same thing. Seems Russia is continuing with that approach today.

I recall one bit from a Russian work on the Soviet Army in the Cold War. One of the authors complained that although the Russian units had many honorifics reflecting previous battles, that all of that was a show mainly understood by the command personnel and that it meant nothing to the average soldier. Interestingly, he compared their system to that of the West, which he noted still had regimental traditions that ordinary soldiers could identify with.

Cheers