Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 2

a reply to: Grimpachi

No you and others just ignore inconvenient facts when they don't work in Putin's favor. As with your comment about the UN, and your dismissal of facts in your response (proving my point).

Under international law / UN charter Russia is at war with Ukraine. Whatever domestic term russia wants to apply is only for the russian audience. So nothing would change for Russia in deciding to call their war a war. Russia would still be getting their asses kicked and russia will continue to lie about it to protects putins image for domestic audiences.

If Russia is dumb enough to declare war on NATO then his retirement will come earlier than he expects.

However, before Putin does anything else he should get his house in order. If his troops are refusing to fight in Ukraine chances are it will be worse for the Russian military and refusals to attack NATO.

I still maintain Putin will be on his way out. He is facing refusal from the military. He is arresting former KGB officers (150+ and counting). He is arresting Oligarchs.

A dictator like Putin who loses those particular groups eventually becomes a historical statistic and compared with other failed dictators.

a reply to: Xcathdra

I had forgotten this is the thread where all info comes directly from MSM and the US, Ukraine governments.

Where Russia is on the ropes barely holding on. Their troops are freezing, starving, and just days away from running out of ammo for over a month. Where they announce their war crimes in crystal clear communications over the radio and their wives tell them to rape the women there.

Ok, I'll stop. lol, Information bubbles are hard to pierce.

a reply to: Grimpachi

Thank you for deflecting and proving my point, once again.

a reply to: Xcathdra

If that is what you think I am fine with it.

a reply to: Xcathdra

I still maintain Putin will be on his way out.

The only somewhat graceful way for Russia to exit this war is for Putin to be retired by other power centers in Russia. The others can then claim/admit Putin misjudged the situation in Ukraine, and that they're pulling their military out of Ukraine.

Just that would not be a problem-free solution for Russia, but the longer the war goes on, the messier it will be to end it.

Cheers

Flightradar24

* - NO CALLSIGN - Boeing B-52H Stratofortress / USAF - Currently over Romania
* - LAGR292 - Boeing KC-135R Stratotanker / USAF - Circles over Romania
* - FE45 - Lockheed EP-3E Aries II Orion / US Navy - Near Black sea / Romanian/Ukraine border
* - SN42YG - PZL-Okecie 104MF Wilga 2000 / Polish border guard - Monitoring Polish-Ukraine border
* - BOXER41 - Boeing C-40C / USAF - Poland near Rzeszow
* - DUKE47 - Sikorsky UH-60M Blackhawk / US Army - Southeast Poland near Nisko
* - NO CALLSIGN - Yakovlev Yak-40K / Sukhoi civil aviation Russia - Southeast of Moscow
* - RFF65911 - Tupolev Tu-134AK / Rossiya - Special Flight Squadron - Near Novorossiysk / Black Sea
* - BBX302 - Leonardo AW139 / Denmark - Off coast of Romania / black sea



* - Poltavska Oblast, Dnipro, Dnipropetrovska Oblast(11:43). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

* - Vinnytska Oblast(11:42). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

* - Kyiv(11:42). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

* - Mykolaiv, Mykolayivska Oblast(11:36). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

* - Odeska Oblast(11:35). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

* - Kharkiv, Kharkivska Oblast(11:24). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

* - Donetsk Oblast(11:19). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

a reply to: xpert11


I suspect that specific variants of the 113s were requested by Ukraine, these things could never compete with the Mastiffs or Bushmasters in almost any way, other than that these requested variants are immediately available.

I suspect that Ukraine requested as many Ambulance units as possible and perhaps also recon variants to use as mostly stationary outposts and artillery spotters since they have optics, comms, and heavy machine guns.

There can't be a whole lot of life or utility left in most of those 50 year old 113s, the only way I see them making it into the donation list is for something unique like ambulances.

But when in need, you make due with what you can find.

Even if not very mobile, the Ambulance units can bring life saving equipment close to the front for faster stabilization, and the recons would be pretty good as spotters dug into tree lines.




ETA - Oh crap, I just remembered that there are also a large number of the NBC variant in U.S. storage, I hope these aren't what Ukraine requested.

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

I said at the very start of this that someone in Russia needs to 'retire' Putin to a nice, comfy, secluded dacha somewhere east of Moscow.
To preserve at least some vestige of 'national honour' they can claim its due to ill health etc.

The biggest problem is that Putin has surrounded himself with Yes Men and cowards and even with them he has a ring of seclusion around him.
Even some of his longest standing and closest friends and allies are no longer in close contact with him - or worse if some of the stories coming out of Russia are true.
Who has the strength of conviction, the wherewithal and the attributes to remove Putin and then replace him?

They could then start an orderly withdrawal and begin what I suspect is going to be a lengthy process of trying to rebuild bridges with Ukraine and the international community in general.

But it is imperative that Russia be allowed to salvage some sort of self-respect and 'national honour' otherwise they will fight and fight and fight.
And humiliating the defeated enemy achieves nothing; The Treaty of Versailles and the Rise of the Nazi's teaches us that.

originally posted by: PatriotGames4u
I suspect that specific variants of the 113s were requested by Ukraine, these things could never compete with the Mastiffs or Bushmasters in almost any way, other than that these requested variants are immediately available.

That is one of the specific matters relating to vehicles destined for Ukraine that I am watching with great interest. If Ukraine requests additional Bushmaster vehicles from Australia, they will likely specify the required variants.

I suspect that Ukraine requested as many Ambulance units as possible and perhaps also recon variants to use as mostly stationary outposts and artillery spotters since they have optics, comms, and heavy machine guns.

Two points support that assertion: First, the international community sends medical supplies to Ukraine. Second, concerning Bushmasters, 1 or 2 out of the 20 vehicles are battlefield ambulances.

There can't be a whole lot of life or utility left in most of those 50 year old 113s, the only way I see them making it into the donation list is for something unique like ambulances.

Combat losses and cannibalising the M113s for spare parts would probably exhaust their numbers before they wear out.

But when in need, you make due with what you can find.

The result is an oddball mix of military equipment dispatched to Ukraine. But Ukrainian assessments of war material will determine their shopping lists in the long term. So by the time the Australian Army and industry complete Land 400, the market for M113s in Ukraine might have evaporated.

Even if not very mobile, the Ambulance units can bring life saving equipment close to the front for faster stabilization, and the recons would be pretty good as spotters dug into tree lines.

Another option is to use that variant to evacuate wounded civilians to rear areas. So the Mastiffs or Bushmasters take the lead in the convoy, and the M113s follow. That offsets some of the landmine related risks

a reply to: xpert11


That last one (mines) is a good point that I hadn't thought of, but I still don't think Ukraine plans to train any troops on these or use them very long.

I think the Bushmasters are a perfect fit for Ukraine's long term needs, the Mastiffs are way too heavy and the 113s are way to old and not very capable by today's standards.

I did have another thought though, the NBC units would be fantastic for any light infantry on checkpoint duty near Cherynobol, basically a shielded guardhouse, still useful even if it has to be towed there.

Please let us know if you see any more info on variants being sent by anyone.

originally posted by: Freeborn
a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

I said at the very start of this that someone in Russia needs to 'retire' Putin to a nice, comfy, secluded dacha somewhere east of Moscow.
To preserve at least some vestige of 'national honour' they can claim its due to ill health etc.

Putin's regime, like Nazi Germany, is on a death ride, so that rules out sending Putin to Siberia.

Who has the strength of conviction, the wherewithal and the attributes to remove Putin and then replace him?

Who has the moral character to put the interests of Russia and global security ahead of their interests?

They could then start an orderly withdrawal and begin what I suspect is going to be a lengthy process of trying to rebuild bridges with Ukraine and the international community in general.

I wonder if Chinese military planners are casting a new eye toward Siberia. Yet Putin remaining in power avoids a second Russian Civil War and China invading Siberia under the guise of liberation.

But it is imperative that Russia be allowed to salvage some sort of self-respect and 'national honour' otherwise they will fight and fight and fight.
And humiliating the defeated enemy achieves nothing; The Treaty of Versailles and the Rise of the Nazi's teaches us that.

Apart from the Russians conquering Ukraine/WW3 breaking out, that is my most profound concern. If Russian forces are evicted from Ukraine, they will return in 3 to 10 years, having addressed some of their underlying military issues.

If you glance at the main stream news/social media etc

…they’d have you think Ukraine Army are all commandos and are walking on rainbows all over the Russian Army.

Yet, you see the Eastern side is getting more and more securedcontrolled daily by Russia.

* - Up to 10 people killed, 30 more wounded as result of shelling of the buses near Borova town by Russian troops yesterday

* - Russian troops shelled Vasylivka in Zaporizhiye region with artillery, 1 killed, 5 wounded. Tavriysk railway station damaged

* - Ukrainian Ministry of Defense estimates Russian casualties at 20 thousand

* - Ternopil, Ternopilska Oblast(11:51). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

* - Zakarpattia Oblast, Zhytomyr, Zhytomyrska Oblast(11:50). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

* - Volynska Oblast, Ivano-Frankivsk, Ivano-Frankivska Oblast, Rivne, Rivnenska Oblast, Khmelnytska Oblast(11:48). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

* - Kyiv Oblast, Zaporizhia(11:46). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

* - Cherkaska Oblast, Kirovohradska Oblast, Kryvyi Rih(11:45). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

* - Mykolaiv(13:02). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

* - Russian Ka-52 helicopter shot down tonight in Kharkiv region. Crew and those who attempted to rescue the crew dead

As a reminder

Just so people know and understand. Information from war zones can become confusing as there will no doubt be info released from the players (on both sides) involved that might not necessarily be true.

As such take everything as a possibility and NOT as absolute truth.

The very first casualty in a war is the truth and all warfare is based on deception

Resources - Where most of the updates come from.
* - Flightradar24 - tracks flights worldwide
* - Live Ukraine control map 1 - updates on the ground
* - Ukraine Control Map 2
* - Ship radar
* - Military vessel tracker
* - Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Youtube resources -
* - Speak the Truth
* - War in Ukraine
* - Artur Rehi - Estonain soldier
* - Daily Report

Social media resources -
* - Twitter - Jomini of the West - Battlefield Maps

After the sinking of the Moskva,rumours of a "Broken Arrow" situation-

However, Ukrainian sources have said that there is a real worry that there were several nuclear missiles onboard the vessel which sank off Sevastopol.
BlackSeaNews editor-in-chief Andriy Klymenko called for an urgent international probe into whether the Moskva was carrying nuclear weapons.
"Friends and experts say that there are two nuclear warheads for cruise missiles on board the Moskva,” he said.

www.mirror.co.uk...

A few sites are reporting the same,although I would say these are as yet only rumours rather than absolute truth.
So the sinking of the moskva may be even more expensive for Russia,and aside from making them look even more incompetent may also prove a danger in terms of possible theft/contamination.

Plus-if russia becomes desperate,they could launch a nuke then claim the Ukrainians detonated it after stealing it from the sea bed.
Hopefully that is too craxy even for putin..

originally posted by: Silcone Synapse
So the sinking of the moskva may be even more expensive for Russia,and aside from making them look even more incompetent...

Just when you thought that wasn't possible Russia says to itself, "Hold my vodka..."

a reply to: Silcone Synapse

there are two nuclear warheads for cruise missiles on board the Moskva,

I certainly hope they remain intact with whatever safely measures they have in place still fully functional.

Especially after the majority of the stored ordinance and ammunition being on fire.

Any idea how deep the water is where she sank?

a reply to: andy06shake

I don't know the depth of the area,but I would hope the fire and explosions would not have damaged the warheads.

As somene reminded me earlier in this thread,nuke warheads are (at least in theory) pretty indestructible as they are built to survive the insane heat and forces generated by atmospheric re entry.

So hopefully they are intact on the sea bed.

But they sure would make a nice prize for some evil terrorists,if they had the skills to retrieve them-which thankfully would not be easy at all.

a reply to: Silcone Synapse

Yeh its a double edged sword best case scenario really.

Would not be the first nuclear warheads lost via accident.

Might be the first ones lost down to enemy action all the same in times of war.

Russia lost a hell of a lot of toys and equipment on that boat.

Any idea if the crew got off or perished when she sank?

Hopefully the former rather than the latter.

originally posted by: andy06shake
Any idea if the crew got off or perished when she sank?

Hopefully the former rather than the latter.

Judging by the recent effectiveness of Russian equipment I'm thinking their life jackets were made of chainmail and it's the latter.