Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 2

a reply to: andy06shake
Some are reporting only 50 sailors survived(out of over 500) but others site are saying many were rescued.
As the Moskva was the flagship of the fleet,I would presume they were among the best of the Russian Navy so any loses will be a hard hit for Russia in military terms (and the families of the sailors of course).

Putin has already bombed the factory in Kyiv where the Neptune misslies are manufactured,presumably in retaliation.

When I first heard the ship was hit,I had a cold feeling that the anti ship missiles used were from the ones Boris recently said he would give to Ukraine-Thankfully they have not yet arrived in theatre,so no escalation-this time..

a reply to: AugustusMasonicus

Which inspires even less confidence with regards to the state of the two nuclear warheads that remain onboard.

a reply to: andy06shake

My imported caviar will now glow in the dark making it easy to find. Thanks Putin.

a reply to: Silcone Synapse

I'm hearing the same to similar reports Silcone Synapse.

My thinking is in she was on fire, they would have been evacuating crew, so they can tackle the blaze more effectively and remove injured personal so they can receive proper medical attention.

But i don't know what Russia's procedure would be under such circumstance.

Or even if the weather would have allowed crew to be evacuated in any sorts of numbers.

a reply to: xpert11

Putin's regime, like Nazi Germany, is on a death ride, so that rules out sending Putin to Siberia.

Putin has copied so much of Hitler's playbook, the similarities are quite frightening.
But he hasn't quite the hold over his people that Hitler had and in this day of such readily available information there is enough opposition to Putin and his policies etc to suggest that hopefully someone will prevent him from taking his country to the brink in quite the same way Hitler did.

I wonder if Chinese military planners are casting a new eye toward Siberia.
Yet Putin remaining in power avoids a second Russian Civil War and China invading Siberia under the guise of liberation.

I'd be amazed if China didn't have a bit of an eye on Siberia.
But China seems to be more considered and not as opportunist as most countries, they play the long game.
As such I doubt they'd rush into any invasion of Siberia.

Apart from the Russians conquering Ukraine/WW3 breaking out, that is my most profound concern. If Russian forces are evicted from Ukraine, they will return in 3 to 10 years, having addressed some of their underlying military issues.

One things for sure, Russia are getting taught a lesson in Ukraine and I'd be amazed if they aren't already analysing their many military related mistakes and planning for the future.
Whichever way this invasion ends Russia have to be allowed to save face otherwise as you say I suspect it'll only be a matter of time before they return....and they won't make the same mistakes twice.

a reply to: ufoorbhunter

Wrong the reason countries around Russia want to join NATO is security. Russia has shown time and again it has no problems invading its neighbors. And once invaded they keep land formally owned by that country.

So if you border Russia you worry your next the only way to guarantee it won't happen is to join NATO.

So the irony is simply Putin caused this through his actions like Georgia losing control of parts of Abkhazia and former South Ossetian AO. Or Ukraine losing Crimea and invading again in an attempt to take more territories.

a reply to: Freeborn

One things for sure, Russia are getting taught a lesson in Ukraine and I'd be amazed if they aren't already analysing their many military related mistakes and planning for the future.

'Course, that is no guarantee of improvement.

They should have learned lessons in 1939-40 in Finland, but then there is the catastrophe that was the summer of 1941.

A lot will depend on the institutional ethics of the Russian military. If they can't shake the networks and corruption, what will happen won't change much.

Cheers

More willful craziness from state sponsored Russian TV-

Moscow: It's been over 50 days since Russia began its special military operation in Ukraine and the reason President Vladimir Putin's invasion of Kyiv is taking so long is because the country has entered World War 3 against NATO, said a Russian state TV host.

www.msn.com...< br />
This seems very ominous as this comment has likely been allowed/encouraged by the Kremlin-They want the Russian population to believe WW3 has begun,and that all of NATO are the enemy.

Compare that rhetoric with what we get in the west-our MSM are often saying this could develop into a "wider war"but not claiming WW3 has started..

Full russian mobilisation next?
What other reason for trying to make the population believe WW3 has started?

a reply to: dragonridr

Russians have design on some islands in the Baltic, specifically Gotland (Sweden) and Bornholm (Denmark) as bases to control the Eastern Baltic

Presumably with thoughts of capturing the Baltic states (Lithuania , Estonia, Latavia) . And maybe even Finland

a reply to: Silcone Synapse

Hard to admit to the Russian public that you can't defeat Ukraine.

Excuse time.

a reply to: alldaylong

I expect at least some of the people seeing alarmist broadcasts like that have family near the western borders and will call them to see what's happening re: war with NATO. Won't be much to report. I would guess there is already a grapevine of sorts operating amongst ordinary Russians.

Cheers

a reply to: Silcone Synapse

Putin is using his control of Russian media to exploit the inherent nationalist tendencies of the Russian people and to spread his own delusional fantasies that the whole world are against them.
A large percentage of them seem to have fallen for his myth of Greater Russia and reclaiming 'former glories'.
Part of this conditioning is to make them believe that NATO is arming itself in preparation for all out war against Russia - WWIII.

In addition it sort of excuses the obvious failings of the Russian military in Ukraine by claiming that they are facing the might of the whole of NATO in their lone fight for justice and national pride.

Surely he knows that any full scale confrontation with NATO would only result in the complete rout of Russian forces?
Which leads to only one conclusion; he's preparing for a nuclear exchange....and no-one wins in that scenario.

He needs some sort of 'get out' so that he can save face and credibility domestically otherwise there is a distinct possibility that this will go completely tits up. (Yes, that is a technical term).

originally posted by: Freeborn
a reply to: Silcone Synapse

Surely he knows that any full scale confrontation with NATO would only result in the complete rout of Russian forces?
Which leads to only one conclusion; he's preparing for a nuclear exchange....and no-one wins in that scenario.

He needs some sort of 'get out' so that he can save face and credibility domestically otherwise there is a distinct possibility that this will go completely tits up. (Yes, that is a technical term).

That is my worry-Putin seems to be backed into a corner where he cannot afford to be seen to be losing.
Its a damned scary situation,possibly the closet we are to everything going tits up in all my 47 years on this rock.

originally posted by: Freeborn

One things for sure, Russia are getting taught a lesson in Ukraine and I'd be amazed if they aren't already analysing their many military related mistakes and planning for the future.
Whichever way this invasion ends Russia have to be allowed to save face otherwise as you say I suspect it'll only be a matter of time before they return....and they won't make the same mistakes twice.

That is the one BIG reason Russia does not want any former satellite country to join NATO and is insisting NATO go back to pre 1991. Russia knows once a country joins NATO they can no longer invade and take that country back.

originally posted by: dragonridr

So the irony is simply Putin caused this through his actions like Georgia losing control of parts of Abkhazia and former South Ossetian AO. Or Ukraine losing Crimea and invading again in an attempt to take more territories.

That there is the writing on the wall for every country around Russia.

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

Surely the failings of the Russian military machine have been exposed for all to see?

A good leader - not even the 'Great' leader that Putin aspires to be - would already be tasking his military strategists and senior Officers with the job of brutally analysing Russian forces performance and failings and developing a short term plan with quick fixes and a robust long term plan addressing all relevant issues aimed at delivering a modern fighting force trained, equipped and ready to meet the requirements of modern warfare.

There's no questioning they have the resources to deliver something like that....but I suspect they lack the vision.

And as you say, there is the little matter of inherent rampant corruption.

Russia has engaged in retaliatory strikes against those that sunk the ship. To me that is acknowledging that this was a successful Ukrainian strike.
Didn’t this also coincide with the release of the Snake Island stamp. Wasn’t this the same day?

originally posted by: Xtrozero
That is the one BIG reason Russia does not want any former satellite country to join NATO and is insisting NATO go back to pre 1991. Russia knows once a country joins NATO they can no longer invade and take that country back.

Some say that is the number one reason Russia have "been involved" in eastern Ukraine since 2014-because they know if there is an ongoing territorial dispute in a country,that prevents them from joining NATO.

That said,the Kremlin are fools if they believe invading Ukraine would scare off anyone else from joining NATO-as Sweden and Finland are now proving.

What Russia will end up with is an expanded NATO,with more manpower and arms than before the Ukraine invasion.

originally posted by: spacedoubt
Russia has engaged in retaliatory strikes against those that sunk the ship. To me that is acknowledging that this was a successful Ukrainian strike.
Didn’t this also coincide with the release of the Snake Island stamp. Wasn’t this the same day?

Source?

As far as I'm aware, Russia threatened to hit "decision-making centres" in Kiev due to repeated Ukrainian attacks on Russian soil, Ukraine didn't desist and so Russia hit Kiev locations yesterday. There's also reports that Ukraine fired 2 Tochka-U rockets (similar to that used on the attack in Donetsk), both of which were shot down by Russian AD, and they also launched a helicopter attack in which they lost 1, also due to Russian AD.

a reply to: Freeborn

Russia is stuck in the past. They have prosecuted the war in Ukraine like it was in the 1980's, but with poor logistics, planning and tactical leadership. They have come up against 21st century technology and Western trained Ukrainians. Russia have achieved none of their original objectives, and their military has proven - by and large - to be as useful as an ashtray on a motorbike.

Just like all dictators, Putin has become his own echo chamber. Living in the past and incapable of seeing a different future for Russia.