Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 2

a reply to: Grimpachi

Hard to tell since they've taken it out of context, but probably he's talking about the cost of holding on to Severodonetsk versus retaking it.

a reply to: Sthrndream

They would be extremely foolish if they thought they could weaken Russia conventionally. They have more tanks than we do. Or at least they did the last time I looked it up. They have an enormous amount of conventional weapons. They only deployed 15% of their forces to UA which is nowhere near 15% of their stockpiles.
Any thoughts of depleting their ammunition stores would have gone out the window when they captured Balaklei. The world's second-largest ASP. There is enough ordinance in that place to fuel a full-blown war for half a decade.

It may also be why they changed strategies. The amount of ordinance they are dropping on fortified positions before they ever try to storm them is obscene. That change in strategies has resulted in far fewer casualties for them on the battlefield.

I haven't seen very many talk about Balaklei. I imagine the speed at which UA lost it to Ru must have come as a surprise. I have to wonder if the reports of UA soldiers not even getting an initial full loadout of ammo is a direct consequence of losing that site. I read that when they lost the site Ru also picked up an additional 200 tanks still being stored there along with other equipment.

I have no doubt they want to hurt Ru but I think they believed they could achieve that goal through sanctions. I am absolutely certain that isn't working out how they thought it would. Ru is artificially inflating the Rouble by selling oil to unfriendly nations with the Rouble as the currency accepted. I read a few days ago that they were going to start doing the same with rare earth minerals.

If they were to actually team up with China and both countries stopped selling rare earth minerals to NATO nations it could have a devastating effect on us. After 6 months most of the weapons systems we build couldn't be replenished as our stockpiles ran out. Car manufacturers and other such industries would be done.

originally posted by: Grimpachi
I find it extremely offensive when someone is trying to gatekeep.

and once again you are lying. I am not gatekeeping anything. What I am doing is researching your posts to see where they come from, then research the source. You just get pissed because you and your sources are being called out for what they are - propaganda.

All you are doing here by claiming the gate-keep bs is deflecting so stfu.

* - Russia somehow lost a TU-22m crashed/destroyed at at an airfield in Russia.. 3 people killed, including the regiment commander. Speculation by Russia is the ejection seats triggered for an unknown reason when the engines were started.

originally posted by: Cutepants
a reply to: Grimpachi

Hard to tell since they've taken it out of context, but probably he's talking about the cost of holding on to Severodonetsk versus retaking it.

It is possible they took him out of context but why would Bloomberg also take him out of context?

twitter.com...

a reply to: Xcathdra

It's PrOPaGaNda

The screech of a MoT Larper.

I don't feel like getting into it with you on this but if you think the site is posting lies you should contact admin to have them add the site to a ban list. However, I am pretty sure you would need provide evidence that they are lying.

Otherwise, I would appreciate it if you just

stfu.

a reply to: Grimpachi

not a chance..

Russia lost a "Wagner mercenary" - Mercenary Vladimir Andonov killed by Ukrainian sniper with two Russian generals dead in separate attack. The other 2 generals killed were Lt. Gen. Roman Berdnikov and Maj. Gen. Roman Kutuzov.


Mercenary Vladimir Andonov killed by Ukrainian sniper with two Russian generals dead in separate attack, reports claim

A notorious Russian mercenary, who is believed to have played a crucial role in the mass shooting of Ukrainian prisoners of war and execution of civilians in the Donbas region, has reportedly been killed.

Vladimir Andonov, 44, also known as “The Executioner” for his brutality in previous wars he served in Syria and Libya, was shot dead by a Ukrainian sniper in Kharkiv.

“The death in Ukraine of Vladimir Andonov, better known as Vaha, has become known,” Russian publication Moskovsky Komsomolets reported.

“He died last night during a reconnaissance of the area together with his friend.”

click link for article...


A quick overview of Kherson (Ukrainian offensive and the missing Russians and Severodonetsk)

a reply to: Grimpachi

Is that something Bloomberg normally avoids doing, or what do you mean?

originally posted by: Grimpachi
a reply to: Sthrndream

They would be extremely foolish if they thought they could weaken Russia conventionally. They have more tanks than we do. Or at least they did the last time I looked it up. They have an enormous amount of conventional weapons. They only deployed 15% of their forces to UA which is nowhere near 15% of their stockpiles.

Wouldn't that be a good opportunity to weaken them? And there's already so many losses confirmed, clearly safety in numbers didn't protect those tanks. I've only seen estimates up to around 13,000 tanks total, do you think they have more than that?

a reply to: Cutepants

I don't know about Bloomberg. I was wondering why they would take him in the same context as Ru did.

As for the number of losses confirmed. I know there are 500 confirmed geo located tank kills or tank and BMP kills. Let's bump it up to 800. There were 200 added to their arsenal at Balaklei.

I guess you looked up that they had 13,000 total tanks which means they haven't even lost 10% of their overall arsenal.

As for the loss of personnel. I don't even want to guess. Both sides lie. Counting vehicles killed doesn't equal to the crew being killed. Lots of videos of crews abandoning their tanks after being immobilized.

At the same rate of depletion, it would take another 3 months to reach 10%. However, they have learned and changed tactics. Their losses now are far less than they were the first two months so it could possibly take a year to reach a 10% loss of military material strength. This thing could also be over in another 3 months.

So, overall it is a really bad bet that this would weaken them in any significant way militarily.

In some ways, they even stand to come out of this stronger than they were before militarily. The lessons learned and the combat veterans it will create that have battled an enemy with peer capabilities should not be ignored.

Day 104 of Russia's 5 day war...

* - Both bridges over the Donets linking Raihorodok with Lyman are destroyed

* - The World Food Program: We expect an additional 50 million people to suffer from the food crisis

* - Missile launch recorded from Belgorod

* - Russian occupation authorities report that grain stolen in Zaporizhzhia region of Ukraine now being transported via railway to Crimea

* - German Chancellor Scholz said Tuesday the country will continue to support Ukraine with weapons for as long as it takes to repel Russian aggression

* - New satellite imagery of destruction and Russian troop positions in Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts, taken over past 24 hours. @maxar. Images 1-2 (taken 6 June): Severodonetsk; Image 4: Rubizhne

* - Massive 40-meter diameter bomb crater and buildings destroyed by recent shelling in Dovhenke : @Maxar from June 6

* - Russian army shelled Senkivka of Chernihiv region, Sopych, Konstantynivka, Stari Vyrky and Velyka Pysarivka of Sumy region , - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine says in the evening report

* - Military echelon with MLRS filmed in Irkutsk

* - At Sloviansk direction Russian army shelled Velyka Komyshuvakha, Dolyna, Kurulka, Hrushuvakha, Chervona Poliana and Shnurky, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine says in the evening report

* - At Sieverodonetsk direction Russian army shelled Ukrainian units and civilians infrastructure near Lysychansk, Borivske and Metyolkine, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine says in the evening report

* - At Bakhmut direction Russian army attempted to assault Komyshuvakha, area of Svitlodarsk and Vuhlehirsk power station, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine says in the evening report

* - Russian army attempted to advance near Nahirne, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine says in the evening report

* - Explosions near Oleksiivka

* - Russian Defense minister Shoigu claims control over Sviatohorsk in Donetsk region (yup no propaganda here)

* - Russian Defense Ministry Shoigu announced establishing road connection between Russia and occupied Crimea via occupied parts of Ukraine, and water supply to Crimea

* - An explosion is reported in a cafe opposite the "military-civilian administration" in Kherson

* - Belarus Armed Forces begin training on transition from peacetime to wartime – Belarusian Defense Ministry

* - Damage in Seredyna-Buda after Russian shelling overnight

* - Russian occupation authorities in Kherson region declares intention to hold referendum to join Russian Federation (sham election, just like Crimea)

* - Russian army shelled Bashtanka town in Mykolaiv region, 2 people killed, 2 wounded. In total 19 people wounded yesterday in the region

As a reminder

Just so people know and understand. Information from war zones can become confusing as there will no doubt be info released from the players (on both sides) involved that might not necessarily be true.

As such take everything as a possibility and NOT as absolute truth.

The very first casualty in a war is the truth and all warfare is based on deception

Resources - Where most of the updates come from.
* - Flightradar24 - tracks flights worldwide
* - Live Ukraine control map 1 - updates on the ground
* - Ukraine Control Map 2
* - Ship radar
* - Military vessel tracker
* - Institute for the Study of War (ISW)
* - Stopfake - Countering Russian propaganda about Ukraine
* - MilitaryLand - Maps

Youtube resources -
* - Speak the Truth
* - War in Ukraine
* - Artur Rehi - Estonain soldier
* - Daily Report

Social media resources -
* - Twitter - Jomini of the West - Battlefield Maps

* - Donetsk Oblast(08:02). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

* - Kryvyi Rih, Dnipro, Dnipropetrovska Oblast(07:40). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

* - Zaporizka Oblast, Kharkiv, Kharkivska Oblast(07:38). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

* - Kramatorsk(07:17). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

* - Sumska Oblast(06:34). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

* - Chernihivska Oblast(06:30). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

* - Poltavska Oblast, Cherkaska Oblast(06:28). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

* - Kharkiv, Kharkivska Oblast(06:21). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

* - Odeska Oblast, Mykolaiv, Mykolayivska Oblast(01:15). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

As a reminder

Just so people know and understand. Information from war zones can become confusing as there will no doubt be info released from the players (on both sides) involved that might not necessarily be true.

As such take everything as a possibility and NOT as absolute truth.

The very first casualty in a war is the truth and all warfare is based on deception

Resources - Where most of the updates come from.
* - Flightradar24 - tracks flights worldwide
* - Live Ukraine control map 1 - updates on the ground
* - Ukraine Control Map 2
* - Ship radar
* - Military vessel tracker
* - Institute for the Study of War (ISW)
* - Stopfake - Countering Russian propaganda about Ukraine
* - MilitaryLand - Maps

Youtube resources -
* - Speak the Truth
* - War in Ukraine
* - Artur Rehi - Estonain soldier
* - Daily Report

Social media resources -
* - Twitter - Jomini of the West - Battlefield Maps

Flightradar24 - another quiet night for tracking military flights. YANK01 / YANK02 over lithuania. No callsign US army Chinook over south central Poland and CL60 Sigint flight over Romania - Ukraine/Moldova border and thats about it.

a reply to: Sthrndream

In the size of conventional forces today, one sees how dramatically the cost of equipping and maintaining forces has increased in the post-WW2 era, especially when those forces are at war.

I've looked at some of the micro-terrain in areas where battles are fought. One big change is the massive reservoirs; those canalize maneuver of land forces. I was surprised by some of the regions having regular tree-and-bush lines that demark good-sized fields. Those would be nasty to clear and will slow the rate of an advance.

I also gain the impression that neither army has a lot of bridging assets; or, they are unwilling to risk them lest they end up like the Russian unit smashed on the Siverskii Donets River.

Definitely more urbanization since the war and more paved roads, although smaller roads won't bear the weight of mechanized columns well. That brings into question how many construction engineer assets the respective armies have. Likewise, specialized engineer units are needed to keep airfields operational in the face of missile strikes and cratering munitions.

Cheers

7 June update

Key Takeaways

* Russian forces have likely established control over the majority of the residential sector of Severodonetsk and conducted assaults against Ukrainian positions in the industrial zone in the past 24 hours. The operational environment within the city remains fluid.

* Russian forces continued efforts to advance on Slovyansk southeast from the Izyum area and west from Lyman, attempting to break through Ukrainian defenses that have halted most direct frontal assaults from Izyum.

* Russian forces are likely attempting to reinforce their operations in the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk area from both the Toshkivka-Ustynivka area in the south and Kupyansk from the northwest.

* Russian forces began withdrawing troops from positions in Zaporizhia Oblast, likely either to rotate damaged units into rear areas or to reinforce Russian defenses in northwestern Kherson Oblast, though ISW cannot currently confirm the destination of these forces.

* Russian forces failed to regain advanced positions on the western (now Ukrainian-occupied) bank of the Ihulets River on June 7.

* Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced that Russian forces restored transit connections between newly occupied cities and Crimea.

* Russian occupation authorities continue to face challenges suppressing Ukrainian resistance and finding partisan supporters despite increasingly draconian occupation measures and attempts to bribe Ukrainian civilians.

For all these reasons and more the current Russian offensive will almost certainly stall at a certain point, probably before it has secured the rest of Donetsk Oblast—Putin’s stated objective in this phase of the war. When it does the Russian military will likely have expended the last of its available effective offensive maneuver capability for now.

Link

More at URLs above.

Cheers

a reply to: Grimpachi

I don't know who Ru is, but I just meant they cut the video off so you can't tell what he was talking about. They didn't imply that he was talking about the whole campaign like Ru did. So depends what you mean by taking out of context, it's ambiguous.

Well I wasn't counting personnel killed this time, that's another story. And we've got 750 confirmed tank losses now. Let's say it's 1500 in total, already over 10%. Then you have to ask yourself, how many of the 13,000 are even fixable and not cannibalized, after being stored outside?

Russia's losses now are probably less because tanks have little use in trench warfare like this. On the other hand there's also less opportunities for people to take pics of the destroyed tanks.

So I'm confident they have lost at least 20% percent of their tanks already, probably more. The problem is see that we should also take advantage of their depletion when it happens, so I hope Biden won't half-ass this.

I think you have an unnecessary nostalgia for Russia, or something. Just feels like you want them to win, and I'm not sure why.

a reply to: Cutepants

Not to mention the issues Russia is having with some defense factories (tanks) which had to be shut down for lack of resources. Russia can have all the tanks in the world but when you dont have manpower to man those tanks (let alone man them with elite / expert / competently trained soldiers) the number of tanks becomes a problem for Russia and not Ukraine.

The Russian forces in Melitopol have some people scratching their heads as to wear the Russians went. Apparently checkpoints all over the city are now unmanned. Some think they were sent to reinforce Russian forces near Kherson while others suggest they were redeployed to the East / Northeast to plug holes / reinforce Russian units. Supposedly there is a deadline of June 10th to capture Sievierodonetsk.

On a side note do we know who, if anyone, has been appointed as the Russian commander responsible for the war in Ukraine?

a reply to: Sthrndream

Concerning the absence of manoeuvre warfare in Ukraine: Neither side has the industrial/logistical bases required to support offensive or counter-offensive campaigns that bring a sledgehammer to a nut.

Post-war, urbanisation dramatically changed population demographics and landscapes. Like mountainous terrain, the span for manoeuvre is hindered. However, the risk of encirclement is greater for armies in cities than in alpine environments. So beyond Stalingrad, there are two options.

First, resembling the Italian campaign (WW2), a series of battles occurred instead of sweeping military movements. Second, the related urban areas cover an area large enough to accommodate manoeuvre without automatic tombstones for armies.

But none of that disguises Russia's strategic blunder. Putting aside the difficulties, no amount of improvements in Russian industrial output, tactics and operational art can compensate for poor or no strategy. Moreover, Russia has no formal alliances, and its "partnership" with China isn't a war winner.

From the Chinese standpoint, beyond the risk of sanctions, the institutional corruption/ Russia's military performance in Ukraine excludes any reason for them to supply Russia with war matériel.