Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 2

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2


The main thing for me is just that russia knows Poland now has a larger quantity of the much more mobile and survivable armor platforms, NATO knows how to do complex logistics (they do far too much of it).

This means that any blitzkrieg type of invasion of Poland would be doomed to fail.

Someone I know that's usually pretty plugged in to anything Army thinks the M1s are coming from long term storage in Germany so it's not adding any tanks to NATO countries in Europe. He also thinks they are already being loaded, but I haven't seen confirmation of either yet.

originally posted by: PatriotGames4u
a reply to: Xcathdra


Ukraine getting 1000 t72s in a few days is an absolute game changer!

Even if the number of tanks is in the hundreds, Ukraine is taking anything they can obtain at the moment.

This means they can go directly to the eastern front to meet the invading russians without pulling too much out of Kiev as russia retreats.

What happens when the surplus of ex-Soviet Military equipment outside of Ukraine runs out?

Poland getting M1s goes a long way to slamming the Poland door on putin.

I can't fathom the Biden admin's stance on military aid to Ukraine. Tanks are fine, but aircraft from the Polish Migs is an issue.

a reply to: xpert11


The best report I saw said just over 1000 units of t72s in many variants, and actually listed many of the variants.

I don't think anyone has reported how many M1s they are getting in return yet, I wouldn't be surprised if it was significantly less than 1000, and wouldn't be surprised if it was 1000.



The amount of old russian hardware still in existence is almost endless, it's a question of how many countries are willing to get involved in such a bold way.



I rarely like anything biden says or does and don't even pay attention to much of it right now.

Stolen elections have consequences, and we're all experiencing some big ones.

* - British Prime Minister's Office: Johnson briefed Zelensky on the results of the donors' conference dedicated to financing military support for Ukraine

* - Russian army shelling Lysychansk with MLRS

* - In Enerhodar Russian occupation troops dispersing and detaining participants in rally

* - Natural gas pipeline damaged near Severodonetsk as result of Russian shelling. Almost all Luhansk region without gas

* - His Holiness Pope Francis says he is considering a trip to Kyiv, Ukraine️ amid Russia's invasion

* - Head of Sumy regional administration says large number of Russian military equipment entered the region(From Chernihiv and Kyiv regions and moving towards Russia)

* - Russian army shelled Kalynivske village in Kherson region. One person killed

* - Flooding in Sviyatohirsk after dam was blown up on Siversky Donets river near Izyum

* - Flooding in Oskil village of Izyum district after destruction of a dam

* - Explosions reported near Schepetivka, Khmelnitsky region

* - Armed Forces of Ukraine shot down two missiles over Poltava region - Head of Regional State Administration Dmitry Lunin

* - Russian strike against infrastructure in Myrhorod with 3 missiles, preliminary no casualties - head of regional administration

* - Death toll of missile strike at Mykolaiv regional administration increased to 36

* - Reports of another explosion in Pavlohrad. Sirens sounding

* - Further Russian losses in Novyi Bykiv, Chernihiv Oblast; 5 more supply and fuel trucks. These were destroyed by Ukrainian fire last week but were captured very recently

* - Russian airstrike in Stanyshivska community of Zhytomyr region, artillery shelling in Narodychi and Malin districts

* - Destroyed Russian military convoy near Dmytrivka village near Irpin

* - Ukrainian flag raised in Nemishaeve settlement, Kyiv region

* - Ukrainian army liberated Mykhailo-Kotsyubinske in Chernihiv region

* - Video from the recaptured town of Borodyanka near Kyiv, shows devastating destruction

* - Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine Hanna Malyar: Irpin, Bucha and Hostomel, as well as whole Kyiv region freed from Russian troops

* - Another MLRS TOS-1 Buratino was seized by Ukrainian army

* - The UK Ambassador to Ukraine: "Monstrous crimes becoming clearer daily" - mass graves, bodies in streets - as Russia "withdraws and regroups"

* - Destroyed Russian equipment at Hurivschyna-Mriya-Myla on Zhytomyr highway

* - Draft documents in talks with Russia are ready for discussion by the presidents - Ukrainian negotiator Arahamiya

* - Burnt Russian tank in Velyka Dymerka, Brovary

* - Ka-52 helicopter was seized by Ukrainian military

* - Lithuanian filmmaker Mantas Kvedaravicius died in Mariupol

* - Black smoke billows into the sky above Odesa, after a series of loud explosions were heard this morning about 0600

As a reminder -

Just so people know and understand. Information from war zones can become confusing as there will no doubt be info released from the players (on both sides) involved that might not necessarily be true.

As such take everything as a possibility and NOT as absolute truth.

The very first casualty in a war is the truth and all warfare is based on deception

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2


Tyrants like Stalin, Hitler and Putin don't have people who disagree with them or point out their mistakes within their inner circle. In contrast, Churchill's dealings with General Alan Brooke were often rough going, but Brooke wasn't a "yes man."

Putin is unlikely to perceive where gambling takes over from calculated risk. The fallout from Putin's search for fall guys might remove his political cronies masquerading as generals. Putin is facing the requirement to acknowledge that Russia is at war in Ukraine. Otherwise, he can't place Russia on a war footing.

* - Odesa was attacked from the air, fires in some areas. Some of the missiles were shot down by air defense,- military command South

* - 2 pairs of jets dropped bombs on Avdiyivka this morning

* - Kharkivska Oblast(09:26). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

* - Zaporizka Oblast, Kryvyi Rih(09:22). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

* - Dnipro(09:17). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

* - Ukrainian general Staff reports that Russian troops completely withdrawn from Sivershina to Belarus and Russia

* - Russian army blown up a bridge at Chumakove village in Sumy region

* - Odesa(09:48). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

* - HRW: Russian 'soldiers forced five men to kneel down, pulled shirts over their heads, and shot one of them in the back of the head', in Bucha, Ukraine, according to a witness

* - Human Rights Watch says it's documented Russian forces committing rape and summary execution in Ukraine. Says the people who did this committed war crimes

* - Mayor of Beryslav, Kherson region, Oleksandr Shapovalov was released from captivity. the Russians detained him for two weeks

* - Military convoy moving from Kalinkavichy towards Minsk

* - Russian army shelling Maryinka and Heorhiivka west to Donetsk with MLRS GRAD

* - Russia announces that air and sea missiles destroyed oil facilities in Odesa

* - 21 shelling with artillery, mortars, tanks targeted Saltivka, Pyatykhatky, Oleksiivka, Novi Budynky and central part of Kharkiv in last 24 hours. Also Derhachi, central hospital in Balakliya and Lozova. No military aviation sorties, only drones - head of regional administration

* - Kyivs Mayor @Vitaliy_Klychko speaks out about Bucha: "Can only be described as genocide"

* - Ternopilska Oblast(10:52). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

* - Rivnenska Oblast, Volynska Oblast(10:49). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

* - Khmelnytska Oblast(10:49). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

* - Vinnytska Oblast(10:47). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

As a reminder -

Just so people know and understand. Information from war zones can become confusing as there will no doubt be info released from the players (on both sides) involved that might not necessarily be true.

As such take everything as a possibility and NOT as absolute truth.

The very first casualty in a war is the truth and all warfare is based on deception

Flightradar24

* - LAGR170 - Boeing KC-135R Stratotanker / USAF - Circling southeast Poland
* - LAGR292 - Boeing KC-135R Stratotanker / USAF - Circling central Romania
* - SVF645 - Gulfstream IV / Swedish air force - Patrolling Poland - Kaliningrad/Belarus/Ukraine border
* - GRIT20 - Boeing CH-47F Chinook / US Army - Over east Poland near Ukraine / Belarus border w/ Poland
* - DUKE47 - Sikorsky UH-60M Blackhawk / US Army - Southeast Poland near Mielec
* - DUKE48 - Sikorsky UH-60M / US Army - SE Poland also near Mielec
* - BBX302 - Leonardo AW139 / Denmark - Black sea off coast of Romania
* - RBP01 - Schiebel Camcopter S-100 / unknown - Drone off coast of Romania
* - YANK01 - Beech RC-12X Guardrail / US Army - patrolling Lithuania
* - T26 - Pilatus PC-12 NG / Finnish air force - heading north from Tampere
* - NO CALLSIGN - ATR P-72A MPA / Italian air force - Over the Ionian sea




UPDATED CONTROL MAP -
* - Russian forces have withdrawn from the Kiev area.
* - There are a few pockets of Russian forces North East of Kiev but Ukrainian forces have taken control of their supply areas.
* - Down south near Kherson Ukraine forces have pushed the Russian forces back.
* - In the Northeast Russian forces have been cut in half at Velyka Pysarivks with Ukraine regaining land to the Russian border.
* - While expecting it to fall at anytime Ukrainian forces are still holding out in Mariupol (Ukraine's Alamo).
* - It looks like some land in the city has been retaken by Ukraine forces.
* - In the east - Ukraine forces continue to block russian advances / taking land from Russia near Luhansk / Donetsk areas.
* - (personal observation) It seems Ukrainian forces are advancing faster than the Russians are retreating

a reply to: PatriotGames4u

In the short term, dispatching ex-Soviet military equipment to Ukraine is the best option. But ignoring longer-term considerations might cause the international community's military aid efforts to encounter difficulties. Losses in combat will account for tanks and other vehicles so Ukraine will request replacements.

Also, to an extent, the wisdom behind military aid isn't well thought out. For instance, if outmanoeuvring the road-bound Russians is a consideration, then the 4WD capabilities of MRAPs and JLTVs and international equivalents are a better option than Humvees. However, I understand that those vehicles are troop carriers and not tanks or infantry fighting vehicles, but I stand by my point.

There is nothing wrong with the Humvee design. But the Iraq and Afghanistan wars breed a new generation of off-road vehicles with IED/landmine protection. Although those vehicles weren't designed to survive combat with enemy armour.

a reply to: Xcathdra


That new map is nothing short of astounding!

I'm shocked, and I expected Ukraine to put up a good fight long before most.

a reply to: xpert11


I agree with all of that.

The 1000 t72 units include tanks, personnel carriers, MLRS, air defense, command, communications, recovery, engineering, medical, and quite a few other variants, I don't know how many are actual tanks yet.

I also saw what looked like some kind of iskander platform, but I didn't know they existed so I could be mistaken.

I see the best short term use for the tanks as dug in to reinforce Ukraine's defensive positions in the east, not so much for chasing russians around.



Also - did you notice that russia just blew up the most likely fuel source for that new t72 fleet in Odessa?

No worries, we can send them fuel along with the t72s.

originally posted by: PatriotGames4u
a reply to: Xcathdra


That new map is nothing short of astounding!

I'm shocked, and I expected Ukraine to put up a good fight long before most.

I agree and I still think Ukraine is going to continue to fight till Russia is ejected from all Ukrainian territory.

a reply to: Xcathdra

Yes. They will absolutely fight until Russia is defeated.

a reply to: PatriotGames4u

I would be surprised if the USA had 1000 M1s in cold storage in Europe. And I can't imagine they would completely empty the stock of prepositioned tanks in Germany.

Although: we did that once, in 1973, which considering the Cold War situation at the time, was somewhat risky.

ETA: The Military Balance 2021 has the Polish Army with some 560 T-72s and improved derivatives of that model.

Cheers

a reply to: Xcathdra


That appears to be their intention, but I still can't force myself to believe it may actually be happening.

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2


We have 3000 in Germany alone.

Left there when the troops came home.

Even tried to keep up with the upgrade cycles during some administrations, they are all ready to go with 12 hour notice, the minimum time it takes to fly a division to Germany.

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2


"ETA: The Military Balance 2021 has the Polish Army with some 560 T-72s and improved derivatives of that model."


I suspect that much of what is being delivered had already been replaced by the Leopards, no other way to make the numbers add up.

originally posted by: Grimpachi

You failed to mention the Crimea canal that Ukraine dammed when Russia annexed Crimea.

Waters flowing now but they are not going to withdraw and let it be dammed again.

This war for Russia was just as much about water as it is about national security.

It is about a lot of different things that Russia wants full control over. They didn't want to keep paying Ukraine to have their naval bases in Crimea so they took it. Russia has been fighting a proxy war for 8 years using mercs and that has not gone well, so this is their next move. It almost sounds like you disagree with Ukraine damming the canal.

a reply to: PatriotGames4u


Static tanks in relatively flat terrain are exposed to airstrikes and artillery, and Ukraine lacks mountainous areas that provide natural concealment for that kind of emplacement.

Concerning variants of the T-72:

The T-72SK tank is intended to command and control a number of tank units and maintain communication with the brigade commander. It features an additional AB-1-P/30-Ml-U benzene powered electrical generator to supply electricity when the main powerplant is not operating.

Full article

But your point concerning the range of equipment destined for Ukraine is valid. At some point, the Ukrainian military and political leaders will assess the merits of how military equipment fared on battlefields. So they will request new designs or their preferred military hardware, and the international community decides how they respond.

I am aware of what occurred in Odesa, Ukraine. Oil and natural gas might arrive in Ukraine via rail until the options of constructing pipelines are examined. Moreover, Australia and the U.S. require time to increase their natural gas or oil output to meet any new demand from Ukraine.

a reply to: PatriotGames4u

I expect a lot of the ex-Soviet gear is in storage or serving as gate guards and hard targets on firing ranges.

IMB 2021 shows some 240 Leo-2 types in Polish inventory.

Cheers

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2


I think it's over 500 now, possibly closing in on 600, but I see the numbers from the manufacturing side so there could be a big lag time before delivery and public reporting.

Also, some manufacturers have a reputation for publishing numbers based on contracts that they know the buyer has no intention of executing, so there's that.



I suspect most were keeping a parking lot from blowing away, but at least they weren't there all that long.



ETA - wiki says "1009 tanks (2017). There are a total of 249 Leopard 2 tanks (117 Leopard 2A4, 105 Leopard 2A5, 25 Leopard 2PL, 2 Leopard 2NJ)"

So I guess the number I saw was all Leopard models.