Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 2

a reply to: carewemust

What the hell does that have to do with anything?

Start a thread somewhere else to mask your thinly veiled attempt at political baiting.

a reply to: alphabetaone

As an ATS member in good standing, I can say anything I want about the Russia-Ukraine conflict in this thread, so long as its relevant to the RUSSIA-UKRAINE CONFLICT.

R U now the ATS police? If the people that matter (ATS moderators) feel the post is inappropriate, they will remove it and send me a warning.

Or, are you now publicly doubting the integrity of those who oversee this incredible forum?

Enjoy your day.

originally posted by: alphabetaone
a reply to: carewemust

What the hell does that have to do with anything?

Start a thread somewhere else to mask your thinly veiled attempt at political baiting.

Lol.

Canadian fighting in Ukraine describes the 'hell' he witnessed

Ukraine Launches Counteroffensive to Disrupt Russian Supply Lines

KYIV, Ukraine—Ukraine began a counteroffensive toward the eastern city of Izyum aimed at disrupting Russian supply lines into the Donbas region, officials said, as Ukrainian forces continued clearing villages north of Kharkiv and President Vladimir Putin warned Finland’s president that joining NATO would risk damaging relations with Russia.

According to the Kremlin, Mr. Putin told Finnish President Sauli Niinistö in a phone call Saturday that ending its decadeslong nonaligned defense policy by joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization would be a mistake for Helsinki. The Finnish president initiated the call to explain to Mr. Putin how his invasion of Ukraine had altered the security environment, prompting Finland to seek NATO membership in the coming days.

“The conversation was direct and straightforward and was conducted without aggravations. Avoiding tension was considered important,” Mr. Niinistö said.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko, meanwhile, said that Moscow would need to take “adequate precautionary measures” if NATO were to deploy infrastructure for nuclear weapons near Russia’s borders, including in Finland.

As the war entered its 80th day, Russian offensive operations in Donbas remained largely stalled following the failure of Russia’s ambitious attempt to cross the Siverskyi Donets river and encircle the metropolitan area of Severodonetsk, the capital of the Ukrainian-administered Luhansk region.

With Western weapons continuing to flow into Ukraine, Ukrainian officials are beginning to say that a major pivot in the war may be near, with Kyiv switching from defense to offense to reclaim large parts of southern and eastern Ukraine that remain under Russian rule.

“A strategic break in Ukraine’s favor is under way. This process will take time. But, in the long term, these trends make Russia’s defeat inevitable,” Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said in an address to Ukrainian citizens.[

click link for article

a reply to: carewemust

to apologize for the delay of funds.

a reply to: carewemust


There is bipartisan support in Congress to help Ukraine. Sen. Paul wanted to add a requirement that the IG would be required to account for the $40 billion to make sure its actually going to Ukraine. Democrats threw a fit over that.

a reply to: carewemust

Putin oversaw a divided and conquered campaign in the U.S. Russia's efforts to divide the American people and spread propaganda (the fake Russian Trump dossier) are greatly aided by the MSNBC and CNN crowd. So Putin believed that the deep divisions among the American people would allow Russia to conquer Ukraine unopposed.

Concerning Germany, the Green Party, Angela Merkel and Gerhard Schröder played into Russia's hands. The (German) Greens traded nuclear power for Russian supplied gas, and they are Putin's useful idiots. Schröder preferred working for Gazprom and "friendship" with Putin over European security. Ironically, Merkel's policy of Appeasement, supported by Obama, emboldened Putin to implement his plans.

Putin's gambits failed concerning the American public's opposition to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. But Germany is still in play.

Nor will I forget or forgive the sick fake news culture that dismissed the Russian threat to Ukraine and European security in 2014. But they did Putin's bidding during and after Trump's unexpected political rise. Also, Time Magazine and other media outlets attempted to turn Merkel into a false prophet (the leader of the free world).

After Russia's further military aggression against Ukraine, cable news morons and Obama stated how Putin changed. Putin didn't morph into a deranged dictator. He was that character from the onset.

* - Reports of Russian MoD Chief of Staff Valeri Gerasimov has been dismissed / fired.

* - General Sergey Beseda was head of the 5th service of FSB (foreign intelligence) arrested and sent to the Lefortovo Prison (used during Stalins regime where the purges took place). For some reason Putin is trying to hide the fact the General was arrested / sent to prison, going so far as to remove his name from official records at the prison.

* - The Russian military is blaming the intelligence agencies for the failure of the invasion.

* - The military is at odds with the intelligence agencies and does not support the scaled back invasion of Ukraine. They want an all out war and expected Putin to declare an all out war during the May 9th parade. When it did not happen the military suspects the FSB gave Putin misleading info.

* - In addition to blaming the intel agencies, the military is also blaming Putin (but not Shoigu)

As a reminder

Just so people know and understand. Information from war zones can become confusing as there will no doubt be info released from the players (on both sides) involved that might not necessarily be true.

As such take everything as a possibility and NOT as absolute truth.

The very first casualty in a war is the truth and all warfare is based on deception

Resources - Where most of the updates come from.
* - Flightradar24 - tracks flights worldwide
* - Live Ukraine control map 1 - updates on the ground
* - Ukraine Control Map 2
* - Ship radar
* - Military vessel tracker
* - Institute for the Study of War (ISW)
* - Stopfake - Countering Russian propaganda about Ukraine
* - MilitaryLand - Maps

Youtube resources -
* - Speak the Truth
* - War in Ukraine
* - Artur Rehi - Estonain soldier
* - Daily Report

Social media resources -
* - Twitter - Jomini of the West - Battlefield Maps

originally posted by: xpert11
a reply to: carewemust

Putin oversaw a divided and conquered campaign in the U.S. Russia's efforts to divide the American people and spread propaganda (the fake Russian Trump dossier) are greatly aided by the MSNBC and CNN crowd. So Putin believed that the deep divisions among the American people would allow Russia to conquer Ukraine unopposed.

Concerning Germany, the Green Party, Angela Merkel and Gerhard Schröder played into Russia's hands. The (German) Greens traded nuclear power for Russian supplied gas, and they are Putin's useful idiots. Schröder preferred working for Gazprom and "friendship" with Putin over European security. Ironically, Merkel's policy of Appeasement, supported by Obama, emboldened Putin to implement his plans.

Putin's gambits failed concerning the American public's opposition to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. But Germany is still in play.

Nor will I forget or forgive the sick fake news culture that dismissed the Russian threat to Ukraine and European security in 2014. But they did Putin's bidding during and after Trump's unexpected political rise. Also, Time Magazine and other media outlets attempted to turn Merkel into a false prophet (the leader of the free world).

After Russia's further military aggression against Ukraine, cable news morons and Obama stated how Putin changed. Putin didn't morph into a deranged dictator. He was that character from the onset.

putin does appear to have suddenly become reckless and incredibly inept while hiding from the media during the wuhan-19 period though, this was shocking to me, and I said so.

I can't speak for the msm morons, but it's possible that some of them were referring to this, though many of the more obvious msm idiots certainly did act surprised to suddenly 'learn' that putin was always a dictator.

a reply to: PatriotGames4u

IMO, it is likely that the economic pressures from Covid- 19, alongside Russia's shrinking population and lousy economy, contributed to Putin/Russia's escalation of the war in Ukraine. But there is an additional cautionary note: China is riding the Covid- 19 storm, sitting on the sidelines. From the grandstand, China will decide how they provide military and economic assistance to Russia.

I suspect that China will quietly supply Russia with speciality equipment, whose supply is affected by international sanctions. So, for instance, the Chinese might provide the components for Russian tank production to resume, but they wouldn't dispatch armour from their factories. That is how they might supply aid to Russia without risking backlash from the international community.

originally posted by: xpert11
a reply to: PatriotGames4u

IMO, it is likely that the economic pressures from Covid- 19, alongside Russia's shrinking population and lousy economy, contributed to Putin/Russia's escalation of the war in Ukraine. But there is an additional cautionary note: China is riding the Covid- 19 storm, sitting on the sidelines. From the grandstand, China will decide how they provide military and economic assistance to Russia.

I suspect that China will quietly supply Russia with speciality equipment, whose supply is affected by international sanctions. So, for instance, the Chinese might provide the components for Russian tank production to resume, but they wouldn't dispatch armour from their factories. That is how they might supply aid to Russia without risking backlash from the international community.

Agreed on the first part, but I still think 'geo political opportunity' was the only the thing that triggered putin's invasion plans, though he appears to have been quite mistaken about what he thought was western 'weakness'.



I think you are correct, or were correct a couple months ago anyway on the second part.

It seems ccp has decided to cut off russia in ways that russia didn't expect as a result of seeing the 100% resolve of just about every western country, because ccp knows it only survives economically by those same western nations purchasing it's products, and it only survives domestically as a result of those western nation purchases of ccp slave labor products.

ccp had big plans IMO, but have decided to let russia fail on their own.

SMH.....

Russia cuts off electricity to Finland amid growing international tensions

Russia said it would cut off electricity to Finland starting Saturday as it claims the country has not paid, a state-owned power company said.

RAO Nordic, a subsidiary of Inter ROA, said it will stop exporting electricity to Finland without providing specifics amid larger tensions across Europe beset by the Russia-Ukraine War, Reuters reported.

"This situation is exceptional and happened for the first time in over twenty years of our trading history," RAO Nordic said in a statement, per the report.

RUSSIA LOOKS TO CUT GAS SUPPLIES TO FINLAND AMID NATO BID

Electrical services, which account for 10% of the country’s total consumption, were discontinued "for the time being" at 1 a.m. local time, Finnish grid operator Fingrid said, according to the report.

"Missing imports can be replaced in the electricity market by importing more electricity from Sweden and also by domestic production," the company added, Reuters reported.

According to the report, Fingrid is not involved in the dispute.

"Nord Pool is the one paying for them. Fingrid is not a party in this electricity trade. We provide the transfer connection from Russia to Finland," Reima Paivinen, Fingrid's senior-vice president for operations told the outlet.

EU ACCUSES RUSSIA OF 'BLACKMAIL' AFTER IT CUTS GAS TO POLAND, BULGARIA

The discrepancy in the paused payments could be connected to prior demands from Russian President Vladimir Putin, who demanded countries pay gas fees in rubles, Russia’s national currency.

click link for article

If putin really does have an illness it needs to hurry up and finish him off.

a reply to: PatriotGames4u

A valid point concerning China. One option for the Chinese is to disguise military aid as consumer goods for the Russian Market. However, that option rules out speciality military equipment without civilian uses. But the war will last for years, yet none of that might occur, and China might opt to undertake another strategic direction.

But issues are bubbling away at the surface. If Russian forces are evicted from Ukraine and Putin is humiliated, then the stage is set for the next war. Russia will return (invade) Ukraine in 3 - 10 years. Moreover, Ukrainian reconstruction is more challenging than engineering the military outcome. As 1919 (Treaty of Versailles), the Six-Day War, and the U.S. Civil War displayed, winning the peace was far more challenging than winning the war.

originally posted by: xpert11
a reply to: PatriotGames4u

A valid point concerning China. One option for the Chinese is to disguise military aid as consumer goods for the Russian Market. However, that option rules out speciality military equipment without civilian uses. But the war will last for years, yet none of that might occur, and China might opt to undertake another strategic direction.

But issues are bubbling away at the surface. If Russian forces are evicted from Ukraine and Putin is humiliated, then the stage is set for the next war. Russia will return (invade) Ukraine in 3 - 10 years. Moreover, Ukrainian reconstruction is more challenging than engineering the military outcome. As 1919 (Treaty of Versailles), the Six-Day War, and the U.S. Civil War displayed, winning the peace was far more challenging than winning the war.

You could be correct, and a lot of respected folks that I consider to be wise on such issues certainly agree with you.



My analysis and the conclusion it leads to are certainly considered pretty crazy right now, but I actually think putin's reckless (insane) behavior will lead to the end of putin and his 'putocracy' and a sincere russian apology to Ukraine.

It might even lead to russian membership in NATO down the road, but that mostly depends on how many putin zombies meet the same fate as putin.

I further think that smarter folks in ccp's ranks came to the same conclusion about a month ago.

While some in ccp will certainly cheat the sanctions in some ways (they cheat on everything), it won't be nearly enough for putin's russia to survive putin's war.

a reply to: PatriotGames4u

IMO, the survival of Putin's rule hinges on the war's outcome in Ukraine. So the concept concerning the war leading to the demise of Putin is not crazy but a historical occurrence. Like Germany (WW2), and the Confederacy (U.S. Civil War), Putin's regime is on a death ride. But unlike with Germany and Japan at the end of WW2, unconditional surrender isn't on the table. Nor is the occupation of Russia or China a viable option.

So the U.S. and the West won't have any control over Russia's post-war fate. Also, the scope of the war and how the conflict ends will shape events.