Corona Virus Updates Part 6

originally posted by: McGinty

originally posted by: RP2SticksOfDynamite

originally posted by: andy06shake
a reply to: Agit8dChop

Your aspersion is merely what you see when you look in the mirror. Some know Boris by other names none of which you could live up to. Boris will be one of the best PM's the UK has ever had and one thought well of by all sectors of the population! Full blame for these unprecedented times should be laid at China and the CCP b.stards!

Boris has made the wrong move at every single point in this crises; locked down too late, opted out of the euro order for PPE, bought the wrong test kits, followed advice from his puppet medical advisor and then hidden behind modelling they won’t reveal.

And where is he? As soon as it became apparent he’d completely ballsed it up he happens to get the virus and disappears from view, just like he did when he crapped himself after winning the Brexit vote - remember him declining to run as leader then and vanishing from the spotlight.

...Because just like the fiasco now he knew the mud will stick most to whomever is was camera failing to answer the awkward questions. Remember in the election when he was asked an awkward question he literally hid in a walk in freezer waiting for the press to leave.

As soon as there’s something positive to announce it’ll be Boris making a set up ‘triumphant’ return to make the announcement. He and Cummings are men to be feared, who’ll have no problem shouting “Over the top, chaps”. If you want to run into machine gun fire for these pampered pricks, then more fool you.

I guess you think you could do a better job then. All so easy to do everything right, not!

a reply to: RP2SticksOfDynamite

I've not really got any enemies to my knowledge still doing the rounds, but it's just a turn of phrase, take it in the manner it was offered, or not.

Chinas whole treatment of the Covid 19 virus does indeed leave a lot to be desired, but they don't really have any sway as to what comes out natures Petri dish anymore than any other nation.

Boris is in charge of this one, and thus far has done a piss poor job of managing the entire situation.

If you wish to lay the blame as to the pathogen's progress across the globe, put it at the feet of our transportation hubs and infrastructure that we have in place across the planet.

Blaming China is like blaming Spain for the Spanish flu im afraid.

a reply to: RP2SticksOfDynamite

Well, my Mum and Dad were married when i popped out so i guess i could be considered to be somewhat of a ""fake bastard"" given my legitimacy. LoL

Your personal feelings for the Man aside, hows Boris the best PM in a long time again?

What I'm basically asking is what's Boris did, or is doing, to impress you so and draw such admiration?

originally posted by: andy06shake
a reply to: RP2SticksOfDynamite

I've not really got any enemies to my knowledge still doing the rounds, but it's just a turn of phrase, take it in the manner it was offered, or not.

Chinas whole treatment of the Covid 19 virus does indeed leave a lot to be desired, but they don't really have any sway as to what comes out natures Petri dish anymore than any other nation.

Boris is in charge of this one, and thus far has done a piss poor job of managing the entire situation.

If you wish to lay the blame as to the pathogen's progress across the globe, put it at the feet of our transportation hubs and infrastructure that we have in place across the planet.

Blaming China is like blaming Spain for the Spanish flu im afraid.

Ridiculous!

originally posted by: andy06shake
a reply to: RP2SticksOfDynamite

Well, my Mum and Dad were married when i popped out so i guess i could be considered to be somewhat of a ""fake bastard"" given my legitimacy. LoL

Your personal feelings for the Man aside, hows Boris the best PM in a long time again?

What I'm basically asking is what's Boris did, or is doing, to impress you so and draw such admiration?

You are a lucky boy then. Not sure popping out will have done you any good.

a reply to: RP2SticksOfDynamite

Aye Boris, i totally agree "Ridiculous" is a perfect description of the Man.

You called that one in spades!

a reply to: RP2SticksOfDynamite

Luckier than some unluckier than others. x

I imagine your not sure about many a thing mate too be honest.

AGAIN, what's Boris did, or is doing, to impress you so and draw such admiration?

Is it the complete and utter disregard for our elderly and the NHS that saved his life, the lies on the side of busses, or his hiding in fridges that floats your boat?

Here is an update from Macon county in central Illinois:

As of this moment, we have had 93 confirmed cases and 10 deaths in our county. We have not reached our 'peak' yet.

At my hospital, currently we have 11 people in the COVID unit (4 confirmed positive + 7 suspected cases waiting test results), and we have had 6 deaths at our hospital so far from Covid19, primarily because 2 nursing homes had outbreaks in our community, which is not a good thing. The nursing homes were already being isolated, but apparently some asymptomatic staff members brought it into these homes unwittingly, and a bunch of patients were infected secondarily. Visitors had already been barred weeks ago.

On the bright side, yesterday we finally got the ability to do an on-site test for this coronavirus, though our test numbers are limited to the point where we must limit in-house testing to severely ill patients, and inpatients only. Outpatients' tests will still be sent to outside labs, and those results will take longer to come back.

Also, our regional blood center is asking for volunteer verified survivors of COVID19 to donate plasma, to be used for severely ill patients, which is also a good development. Unfortunately though, their requirements to participate / donate plasma include proven positive test results for COVID19, and also that the donor has fully recovered, both of which will limit the number of eligible donors for now at least.

Hundreds of People Volunteer to be Infected With Coronavirus

This is a grass roots volunteer program. I'm not sure that the researchers are going to hop on it, particularly right now.

Momentum is building to speed the development of coronavirus vaccines by intentionally infecting healthy, young volunteers with the virus. A grass-roots effort has attracted nearly 1,500 potential volunteers for the controversial approach, known as a human-challenge trial. The idea is also gaining traction with US politicians.

The effort, called 1Day Sooner, is not affiliated with groups or companies developing or funding coronavirus vaccines. But co-founder Josh Morrison hopes to show that there is broad support for human-challenge trials, which have the potential to deliver an effective coronavirus vaccine more quickly than standard trials

I know there are folks here who would volunteer. I am not one of them, however!

Update from New York State

Just watched Governor Cuomo, and there was some interesting facts that have come out today.

The first antibody test results have come in for NY. Testing was done across 40 locations in the state, including downstate (city) and upstate. They were conducted at people going into and out of stores, etc. 3,000 people were tested at random.

The positive antibody rate was 13.9%!!!!

Based on that, he said 2.7 MILLION people in the state of New York have already had the virus. New York population is about 19 million.

That is huge!!!

The up side is that means the mortality rate is lower.

The down side means there probably is still a lot of it out there undetected. If people start bucking the mitigation efforts, it will spread faster, increasing the mortality rate, just due to the shear number of infections.

Local hospital (Houston TX) using experimental drug treatment in hopes of saving lives of COVID-19 patients

One top doctor at at United Memorial Medical Center said a cocktail of drugs used in the past to treat major infections is proving 100% success with his COVID-19 patients That treatment is a combination of cortizone, large doses of vitamin C and a blood thinner. Dr. Joseph Varon says it shows great promises for treating COVID-19. “To date, we have 0% mortality at United Memorial Medical Center. Zero percent. I know it’s too good for people to believe in this but it’s working," Dr. Varon said. The drug protocol isn’t new. He said it’s been used for years to treat cases of sepsis.

www.click2houston.com... =IwAR3d0Hyi4hoRcUBZSUMMsqyWv8ftxYx4QTExBIFBSGZTupqGue7zRI8WUN0

a reply to: MrRCflying

Just to clarify here:

It doesnt necessarily mean the mortality rate increases, unless the medical system is overwhelmed. Though, the raw numbers (i.e. "total infections" or "total deaths") would increase.

With mitigation efforts, it spreads that raw number over time, but does not necessarily reduce it.

Numbers from around the world are taken from Worldometers for April 23rd.

Spain - Pop: 44.6 M
213,024 Positive tests…….. or 1 out of 219 Spaniards
10.40% Deaths

Italy - Pop: 60.4 M
189,973 Positive tests….. or 1 out of 318 Italians
13.44 % Deaths

France – Pop: 67.0 M
159,877 Positive tests….. or 1 out of 419 French
13.34 % Deaths

UK – Pop: 66.6 M
138,078 Positive tests….. or 1 out of 483 UKers
13.57 % Deaths

Sweden – Pop: 10.2 M
16,755 Positive tests….. or 1 out of 611 Swedes
12.06 % Deaths

Denmark – Pop: 5.8 M
8,073 Positive tests….. or 1 out of 718 Danes
4.88 % Deaths

US - Pop: 330 M
852,717 Positive tests.... or 1 out of 387 Americans
5.66% Deaths

US death rates (2017):
1. Heart Disease …………….…………647,457 annual or 1,773 daily average
2. Cancer ……………………..……….….599,108 annual or 1,641 daily average
3. Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936 annual or 465 daily average
8. Influenza and Pneumonia …………55,562 annual or 152 daily average
9. Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome, and nephrosis:..50,633 annual or 138 daily average

COVID-19 ………………………………………. 48,300 (54 Day) or 894 daily average




*** SURPASSED *****

10. Intentional self-harm (suicide):..47,173 annual or 129 daily average
X. Auto accidents ………………….………37,461 annual or 102 daily average
X. H1N1 2009 ESTIMATED (8,868 – 18,638) for 1 year or 24 – 50 daily average

originally posted by: Serdgiam
a reply to: MrRCflying

Just to clarify here:

It doesnt necessarily mean the mortality rate increases, unless the medical system is overwhelmed. Though, the raw numbers (i.e. "total infections" or "total deaths") would increase.

With mitigation efforts, it spreads that raw number over time, but does not necessarily reduce it.

The mortality percentage would not increase, correct.

However, the mortality count would increase due to a greater number of infections.

Mitigation does spread it out over a longer time period, but it could put a huge dent in the total number of deaths. If mitigation is followed, it can reduce the R0 rate to below 1. If the R0 is below 1, that means the spread is not fast enough to maintain a growth rate. In theory the R0 would continue to go down to a point it is no longer an issue.

If mitigation is not continued and the R0 goes up again, we start the whole thing over, high infection numbers, and high death numbers.

originally posted by: andy06shake
Have to wonder if the muppet would be screaming the same odds if he happens to find himself in the hospital hooked up to a ventilator fighting for breath?

Well, we can dream, can’t we?

originally posted by: McGinty

originally posted by: andy06shake
Have to wonder if the muppet would be screaming the same odds if he happens to find himself in the hospital hooked up to a ventilator fighting for breath?

Well, we can dream, can’t we?

You pikelet!

From Reuters and Financial Times (Paywall) : " Gilead's coronavirus drug (remdesivir) flops in first trial: FT "

(Reuters) - Gilead Sciences Inc’s experimental coronavirus drug failed its first randomised clinical trial, the Financial Times reported on Thursday, citing draft documents published accidentally by the World Health Organization.

Trading in the shares of the company was halted after they fell 6%.

The Chinese trial showed the antiviral remdesivir did not improve patients' condition or reduce the pathogen's presence in the bloodstream, the report on FT.com said.

Researchers studied 237 patients, giving the drug to 158 and comparing their progress with the remaining 79. The drug also showed significant side effects in some, which meant 18 patients were taken off it, according to the Financial Times.

Can we stop arguing about politics and get back to covid?

There's been a lot of talk about using zinc with hydroxychloroquine and that the trials need to add zinc in order to be successful. My thoughts a)the body already has some zinc so if it was going to have an effect it would have had at least a marginal effect. B) the podcast the Daily did an interview with a New York dr at the height of the epidemic. Drs were throwing all sorts at their patients who they were clearly watching deteriorate. I remember the dr in the podcast commenting that hydroxychloroquine and zinc was not making a difference.

www.nytimes.com...

I know some medical trials get stopped because the result is so astonishing that they have to implement immediately. That has not happened to my knowledge with any of these covid studies. Not to say it wont but I don't think we've found the key yet.

Hydroxychloroquine is used in lupus. Presumably because it has some action to dampen the immune system. I'd imagine that is something that would hamper the body's response. Tho I'm not a chemist.

In my small city in SW UK we had 5 deaths today. 19 new cases.
Both the biggest numbers this far. Generally UK numbers are plateauing but I think people here getting complacent due to relatively low numbers.

Update:

On 7 April 2020 I provided predictions of what the global numbers would be in terms of recorded infections and deaths and updated the table with the actual as at 16 April 2020 including the % deviations of the actual from the predicted.

I have just added the recorded actual for 23 April 2020 and as can be seen they are on target to be close to the predicted for 30 April 2020. In fact uncomfortably close. How the actual compare on 31 May & 30 June to the predicted will be indicative of where we are heading with this pandemic and what the minimum global numbers will be come 31 Dec 2020.

It will be interesting to compare the predictions made on the 7 April with the actual as at 30 April 2020

As you will see from the table below the number of recorded cases on 7 April 2020 was 1411099 and total deaths was 81044. If you look at the table you will see the actual on 16 April and today which are 2635716 and 184066. And the prediction for 30 April made on 7 April was minimum 2908284 and max 3635355, and deaths minimum 228014 and maximum 285018.