Corona Virus Updates Part 5

a reply to: JamieJJones

How original

a reply to: Brick17

Cheers for the updates. Good luck to you and yours. Fight the good fight.

originally posted by: JamieJJones

originally posted by: Dumbass
a reply to: Oppenheimer67

You clearly do not understand what herd immunity is.

Never has a user name been more appropriate.

Well clearly he doesn't understand what herd immunity is. It is the direction our country has chosen and frankly I agree.

Locking the entire population down until it blows over is only postponing the inevitable because it will continue to blow back. Get sick, take care around vulnerable people and stop panicking...

Peace

a reply to: JamieJJones

Yes.

originally posted by: operation mindcrime
a reply to: butcherguy

Over here in the Netherlands we just had our prime-minister address the nation and we aren't going for the total lock-down scenario. We're going for group immunity and so everybody who has a healthy immune system will have to get the virus in order to build immunity.

Went shopping today, no empty shelves, schools remain closed but everything else seems to continue uninterrupted.

Peace

PM Rutte is an idiot who is putting my grandmother in danger. I'm sick of these idiotic/corrupt politicians. I wonder how old his mother is.

Anyway, I went shopping today aswell. Empty shelves everywhere. No pasta's, no rice, no bread, no canned vegetables, no toilet paper, even the butter was completely out of stock, except the highly expensive ones.

Posting before thread catch up.

Just saw this on Sky News - talk about sobering.
Imperial College London have 'redone their maths' and say the surge in hospitals here is huge and unexpected. (we all knew on here though...)
They think we would need to continue with their recommended measures and social isolation for 12-18 months/until there is a vaccine (no guarantee of one) in order to reduce deaths in the UK to 250,000. They now feel only these types of measures rather are the ONLY way we can deal with this from hereon.
twitter.com...

Need to find a link to the paper the guy is reading in the clip.

a reply to: Brick17

But not MH

a reply to: operation mindcrime

Exactly. Glad to see there are more Dumbasses in the world.

originally posted by: Dumbass
a reply to: Oppenheimer67

You clearly do not understand what herd immunity is.

Care to explain?

The way I see it; herd immunity means that enough get infected, that R0 decreases. Outbreaks are limited and containable or even self limiting. Partly because of complete immunity in enough of the population (so less potentials to infect), limiting spread, partly because of partial immunity, i.e. less severe, less symptomatic, less transmissibility, therefore limiting spread.

This will prevent severe outbreaks, eventually they will be ignored like a cold, but the current 'shielded' vulnerable will be more vulnerable than ever, since what becomes a cold to the majority, is still a death sentence for them.

I totally agree with you (and our prime minister) on our strategy. The stores are still full of everything where I live (Enschede) which city do you live?

a reply to: operation mindcrime

All, please remember that fighting with each other over petty arguments and taking cheap shots leads to a weakened group. We are already losing valuable members to the in-fighting. This is a thread that brought back the old-school ATS, with people coming back from out of the woodwork. Let’s not lose sight of how valuable your contributions are, even if one doesn’t agree. Many have come here and had an incredible view of what was / is to come for the last several weeks, which enabled many to prepare.

It is understood that there will be plants to try and derail any benefit here. Be aware of that. Ignore (easier said than done, I have been sucked in as well).

Let’s keep giving the updates and challenging the information we here without this thread becoming a mudpit that loses valuable contributors.

Flame away on me, if you must. I can handle it.

a reply to: Brick17

I've appreciated your info Brick. I hope your operations run smoothly and that your family are safe/prepared. Here's hoping for the UK huh? I've got more trust in blightys army than I do any government in charge.

Meanwhile, here's a pic for the isolated to hang on the door...

Midlands, US update. Eastern Nebraska. Our company has moved a nurse on site full time with free coronavirus testing for employees. We don't seem to be in short supply. Stay safe, friends.

ETA: This nurse is in addition to our current onsite nurses specifically for coronavirus, employed by our company's health insurance provider.

originally posted by: Brick17
a reply to: Brick17

But not MH

Ah I was just about to ask you if Timmy Wilson was still there.

Never mind.

Take care.

originally posted by: Ravinski
I totally agree with you (and our prime minister) on our strategy. The stores are still full of everything where I live (Enschede) which city do you live?

a reply to: operation mindcrime

Coincidentally not that far away from you..De Zwarte Cross (festival) is in my backyard every year.

Peace

originally posted by: Oppenheimer67

originally posted by: Dumbass
a reply to: Oppenheimer67

You clearly do not understand what herd immunity is.

Care to explain?

The way I see it; herd immunity means that enough get infected, that R0 decreases. Outbreaks are limited and containable or even self limiting. Partly because of complete immunity in enough of the population (so less potentials to infect), limiting spread, partly because of partial immunity, i.e. less severe, less symptomatic, less transmissibility, therefore limiting spread.

This will prevent severe outbreaks, eventually they will be ignored like a cold, but the 'shielded' vulnerable will be more vulnerable than ever, since what becomes a cold to the majority, is still a death sentence for them.

My worry with the herd immunity idea is that I can't help but keep thinking about Myxomatosis.

In the end it wasn't just down to how the rabbits evolved / became immune, it was also down to how the virus evolved, it became a co-evolution between the host and the virus.

People seem to think we do the herd immunity thing and presto chango the virus is gone.

There is absolutely no way we can even be 10% sure of what is going to happen.

a reply to: Oppenheimer67

Sure.

You say this as a reaction to not getting completely locked down but partly to slow infection rates:

Yes, and everyone over a certain age, or with any "underlying health conditions", shall remain locked up forever more. If it's undiagnosed, then what? Wait for a vaccine? Don't hold your breath. How long have they been working on a SARS vaccine? Which mutation of nCoV would you vaccine for? How ever many there are now, there will soon be many more.

When you start to discount for all those 'healthies' who are close contacts of 'unhealthies', you ain't got nearly enough for herd immunity. Many must die.

Of course you can slow it down to such a rate with a full lock down that your elderly and unhealthies have died from old age and lack of help as they are in lock down and scream 'but we saved them from this disease'.

It is finding an equibrilerium in it. Yes people will die. They die like Iran when there is no control and they will die in a decade of lock down.

But feel free to lock up yourself and whatever country you're in though. The herd immunity approach without full lockdown is a good approach imo.

a reply to: Nyiah

You are absolutely right!!!!!!! It is each persons responsibility to take care of themselves that is what separates adults from children. At some point for some, not all, but some adults become feeble or get dementia and need looking after. I know not everyone has family that is capable or willing to look after their seniors for one and million different reasons but the fact of the matter is that with this virus its all new territory and there are too many unknowns and I dont want anything to happen to my family or anyone else's for that matter.
I was finally able to thankfully convince my mother this afternoon to stay home for 2 week. We will be playing gin via skype.. lord help me hahaaha Who knows maybe we will start a trend.



Tennessee Update:

www.newschannel5.com...

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (WTVF) — On March 16, officials announced 52 cases of COVID-19 in Tennessee. Dr. Caldwell said the age range of coronavirus patients in the county are between 11 and 73 years old. All but one of the patients are recovering at home.

11 years old? Im guessing that CV doesnt affect children theory no longer holds water.

Report for my last post

The global impact of COVID-19 has been profound, and the public health threat it represents is the
most serious seen in a respiratory virus since the 1918 H1N1 influenza pandemic. Here we present the
results of epidemiological modelling which has informed policymaking in the UK and other countries
in recent weeks. In the absence of a COVID-19 vaccine, we assess the potential role of a number of
public health measures – so-called non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) – aimed at reducing
contact rates in the population and thereby reducing transmission of the virus. In the results presented
here, we apply a previously published microsimulation model to two countries: the UK (Great Britain
specifically) and the US. We conclude that the effectiveness of any one intervention in isolation is likely
to be limited, requiring multiple interventions to be combined to have a substantial impact on
transmission.
Two fundamental strategies are possible: (a) mitigation, which focuses on slowing but not necessarily
stopping epidemic spread – reducing peak healthcare demand while protecting those most at risk of
severe disease from infection, and (b) suppression, which aims to reverse epidemic growth, reducing
case numbers to low levels and maintaining that situation indefinitely. Each policy has major
challenges. We find that that optimal mitigation policies (combining home isolation of suspect cases,
home quarantine of those living in the same household as suspect cases, and social distancing of the
elderly and others at most risk of severe disease) might reduce peak healthcare demand by 2/3 and
deaths by half. However, the resulting mitigated epidemic would still likely result in hundreds of
thousands of deaths and health systems (most notably intensive care units) being overwhelmed many
times over. For countries able to achieve it, this leaves suppression as the preferred policy option.

www.imperial.ac.uk... Ui1MB3zgEtDhTE5Qn1unG1cYxpRGcDGo2Phbz-eD84hxkIGVLOD8dfIE

a reply to: Bicent


There isn't actual physical currency being printed and then pumped into the banking system. The fed literally makes the money out of nothing, its digital accounting. Its imaginary. The banks themselves are allowed to practice fractional reserve lending.

Fractional Reserve Lending

Banks with less than $16.3 million in assets are not required to hold reserves. Banks with assets of less than $124.2 million but more than $16.3 million have a 3% reserve requirement, and those banks with more than $124.2 million in assets have a 10% reserve requirement.

The Bottom Line

Fractional reserve banking has pros and cons. It permits banks to use funds (the bulk of deposits) that would be otherwise unused to generate returns in the form of interest rates on loans—and to make more money available to grow the economy. It also, however, could catch a bank short in the self-perpetuating panic of a bank run. (Many U.S. banks were forced to shut down during the Great Depression because too many customers attempted to withdraw assets at the same time.) Nevertheless, fractional reserve banking is an accepted business practice that is in use at banks worldwide.

So if everyone wanted to liquidate their assets into cash, the banks could not produce that much currency because it doesn't actually exist.

Soul