Corona Virus Updates Part 5

originally posted by: ARM1968
Not allergic at all, realistic, something which some here appear incapable of being.

I'm very realistic.

Germanys numbers are all the way down at 0.2%. SK's at 0.7-0.9%. USAs just under 2%.

The WHO global estimated CFR is a conglomeration of all of them.

What we should be doing is examining Germany, SK and ours, and figuring out why they are so much lower.

Not just ignoring them and assuming everything's going to hell.

But, time will tell... bigly.

originally posted by: Aldolas

originally posted by: tanstaafl
Germany is currently at 0.2%.[...]
.

How are you getting that number?

The same place all of the others are coming from.

originally posted by: elitegamer23
Does the world shut down because of the flu or pneumonia?

No, and that is my point. Deaths from flu are far far greater, each and every year. Yet the world doesn't shut down.

Do stock markets around the world essentially collapse because of the flu or pneumonia?

No, and these aren't either. They are falling mainly because of the massive interruption in the supply chains and the worlds economy being just turned off by all of the shutdowns.

Are hospitals pushed beyond their capabilities and then patients refused care because of the flu or pneumonia?

Not all hospitals are pushed beyond their capacities. USA's aren't. Looks more like it is the socialistic/government controlled ones that are having the biggest problems to me.

I'm not saying we won't have problems... but they also are not doing the most sensible things (quarantining the majority of the highest risk in the group care homes) either.

Come on man take off your blinders.

I can see clearly now, the rain is gone.

originally posted by: CthruU
A message to all the bickering on here about figures/CFR'S/RO'S whatever.

Watch the actions not the figures - the figures are bogus. But most importantly prepare, prepare to go underground and take no vaccinations, your very lifes soon enough will depend on it.

Do not take the mark/vaccine.

Prepare to go underground. Sounds like a conspiracy theory to me. Why would this vaccine be the "mark" that goes on your right hand or forehead, unless having the vaccine is needed to buy and sell, while at the same time, giving your allegiance to a world leader to acquire it. Otherwise, it is not the mark.

Isaiah 18:12 You are not to say, ‘It is a conspiracy!’ In regard to all that this people call a conspiracy, And you are not to fear what they fear or be in dread of it.

originally posted by: tanstaafl

originally posted by: elitegamer23
Does the world shut down because of the flu or pneumonia?

No, and that is my point. Deaths from flu are far far greater, each and every year. Yet the world doesn't shut down.

Do stock markets around the world essentially collapse because of the flu or pneumonia?

No, and these aren't either. They are falling mainly because of the massive interruption in the supply chains and the worlds economy being just turned off by all of the shutdowns.

Are hospitals pushed beyond their capabilities and then patients refused care because of the flu or pneumonia?

Not all hospitals are pushed beyond their capacities. USA's aren't. Looks more like it is the socialistic/government controlled ones that are having the biggest problems to me.

I'm not saying we won't have problems... but they also are not doing the most sensible things (quarantining the majority of the highest risk in the group care homes) either.

Come on man take off your blinders.

I can see clearly now, the rain is gone.

The storm is just beginning my friend . Sadly even you will suffer from this world event .

I just watched this on tv

1. gun shop owner (japanese owned) i n los angeles was open only for 2 hours
2. sold out everything
3. can you tell me why this is happening in LA , Calif

I lived there in the Pacific Palisades years ago, so peaceful .
What is happening to the minds of the Americans?

To tell you the truth, I have a story to tell about me being an employer there, but I won't tell you what happen to my wife and I that occurred with my employee. All I can say is this: you all had better have some kind of protection for you and your family.

a reply to: Agit8dChop

bnonews.com...

Cases Deaths Serious Critical Recovered
173,292 /6,648 /5,638 /108 /77,511

a reply to: tanstaafl

I don't recall a time when helthcare systems of entire countries collapsed from flu, or the doctors fell like flies with contagion

originally posted by: Oleman
A systems engineer perspective:

In line with military thinking, a near total population infection is inevitable.
Treatments will NOT be available in time to prevent this.

#1 goal is to minimize the total damage to the society.
#2 goal is to keep the absolute number of severe cases just below the health care system capacity.

Immediately start increasing hospital care capacity.

Delay shutdown as long as possible to limit total front end economic damage.

Minimize total economic damage by ramping up infection rate quickly, then hold just below hospital capacity.

Pray there are no earthquakes or hurricanes. Get this over as quick as is manageable.

I agree with you, I think things are shutting down to soon. But in all honesty, by the time you start to see hospitals at capacity, it's too late... would shutting down cause things to peak 2 weeks later, 4 weeks later, 3 days later? Not knowing that variable makes it impossible to know. Shutting down early seems to be the only way to make sense of it. Italy is the best gauge of this.

In Sydney, Australia:

I have made the decision to self isolate myself and my family.

Hard decision... social peer pressure to "keep going as we were" is immense in Australia currently. The Aussie battler mentality is commendable but actually the worst possible approach in a pandemic.

I wish our government would make better decisions, so I didn't have to seem like the crazy one.

I am business development and strategy (founding director) of our architectural technologies company of 6 full time staff. We closed the office today, have set everyone up to work remotely, casuals and contractors already mainly work remotely anyway. Business partner has bugged out to his parents house in the mountains, will run projects and admin from there.

Wife's Architecture office of 40 took it weird when she said she was only in this morning to prepare to work from home for the foreseeable future. Boss and boss's assistant were miffed. Managing Director was weirded out, but understanding, and said they have already been preparing in the background to "work at home". Her work transition was pretty smooth today, but will be weird in the coming weeks. A couple people quietly let her know they agree with her decision, and that we were probably a few days ahead of the curve.

I suspect she has triggered a movement in her office.

I received inside info from a colleague at St.Vincent's Hospital in Sydney. They had an early morning meeting about coronavirus triage. Effective immediately; over 60's will be denied respirators if they require one!!!

So... based on that, my simple reasoning is:

• My mother is 72
  
• Since she will be denied a respirator (over 60), we have to isolate her now (if I want her risk to be as close to zero as I can get)
  
• If she does have it, and we find out soon, that's good, as our health system still isn't over-run yet, so she can get the care she will need
  
• If she doesn't have, we will KNOW for sure in a couple weeks
  
• I suspect 2 to 6 weeks from now will be the worst possible time to get sick in Aus, as you may be denied medical care in an over-run system
  
• In my job, I have come into proximity with maybe 300 different people in the last week (conferences, networking events, meetings, etc)
  
• I have confirmed that the virus is only 2 degrees of separation from me (a colleague I was with at an event last week has two people that have been "exposed" in her office of 150)
  
• Because I can not know if I have it, all my family has gone into isolation from each other for at least the next week (about 80% sure you don't have it if you haven't shown symptoms for 7 days or so) until we are sure we don't have it
  
• Then we can see each other again in isolation from the rest of the world
  
• Since we'll all likely get this over the next few years, I'll take my dose of coronavirus in September, after our system has learnt to deal with it... thank you very much!
  

My deeper reasoning is that this is now a frightening world for many people, and as the majority of people come to the realisations that members of ATS have been grappling with for months, there is a sense of panic and impending doom generated across society.

So... we need level heads. We need people that when everyone else panics in a coupe of weeks, there are those everyone else can look to as examples of how a business world forced into isolation can still function effectively... and in fact with the right organisational techniques, can even thrive and benefit society in these trying times.

We need people who suggest, instead of canceling meetings, to have them via conference calls... we need people who can re-imagine a work place that actively keeps people distanced... ideas like 24-hour scheduled small staff teams, in business that have to "be there".

It's all possible... as long as we don't destroy society in our panic that is... interesting times ahead either way!

I maintain a positive outlook in the inherent good of people.

originally posted by: musicismagic
I just watched this on tv

1. gun shop owner (japanese owned) i n los angeles was open only for 2 hours
2. sold out everything
3. can you tell me why this is happening in LA , Calif

I lived there in the Pacific Palisades years ago, so peaceful .
What is happening to the minds of the Americans?

To tell you the truth, I have a story to tell about me being an employer there, but I won't tell you what happen to my wife and I that occurred with my employee. All I can say is this: you all had better have some kind of protection for you and your family.

If it gets to the point where I truly NEED a gun to protect my family and home..... it's pretty much over. I don't want to live in that world and I don't see how we could recover from that.

a reply to: tanstaafl

all 3,654 of the remaining cases are classified as mild, with ZERO serious/critical!

The link you posted shows 12 in serious/critical condition, not zero

UK confirmed now at 1543.

Starting to see some disruption, prescriptions order line is closed due to having a deep clean for corona virus. You can’t ring the doctors either now, everything has to be triaged through their website.

Update from the Netherlands 16/03/2020

Confirmed cases 1413

278 new cases

Sources:
www.rivm.nl...
www.rivm.nl...

originally posted by: puzzlesphere
In Sydney, Australia:

I have made the decision to self isolate myself and my family.

Hard decision... social peer pressure to "keep going as we were" is immense in Australia currently. The Aussie battler mentality is commendable but actually the worst possible approach in a pandemic.

I wish our government would make better decisions, so I didn't have to seem like the crazy one.

I am business development and strategy (founding director) of our architectural technologies company of 6 full time staff. We closed the office today, have set everyone up to work remotely, casuals and contractors already mainly work remotely anyway. Business partner has bugged out to his parents house in the mountains, will run projects and admin from there.

Wife's Architecture office of 40 took it weird when she said she was only in this morning to prepare to work from home for the foreseeable future. Boss and boss's assistant were miffed. Managing Director was weirded out, but understanding, and said they have already been preparing in the background to "work at home". Her work transition was pretty smooth today, but will be weird in the coming weeks. A couple people quietly let her know they agree with her decision, and that we were probably a few days ahead of the curve.

I suspect she has triggered a movement in her office.

I received inside info from a colleague at St.Vincent's Hospital in Sydney. They had an early morning meeting about coronavirus triage. Effective immediately; over 60's will be denied respirators if they require one!!!

So... based on that, my simple reasoning is:

• My mother is 72
  
• Since she will be denied a respirator (over 60), we have to isolate her now (if I want her risk to be as close to zero as I can get)
  
• If she does have it, and we find out soon, that's good, as our health system still isn't over-run yet, so she can get the care she will need
  
• If she doesn't have, we will KNOW for sure in a couple weeks
  
• I suspect 2 to 6 weeks from now will be the worst possible time to get sick in Aus, as you may be denied medical care in an over-run system
  
• In my job, I have come into proximity with maybe 300 different people in the last week (conferences, networking events, meetings, etc)
  
• I have confirmed that the virus is only 2 degrees of separation from me (a colleague I was with at an event last week has two people that have been "exposed" in her office of 150)
  
• Because I can not know if I have it, all my family has gone into isolation from each other for at least the next week (about 80% sure you don't have it if you haven't shown symptoms for 7 days or so) until we are sure we don't have it
  
• Then we can see each other again in isolation from the rest of the world
  
• Since we'll all likely get this over the next few years, I'll take my dose of coronavirus in September, after our system has learnt to deal with it... thank you very much!
  

My deeper reasoning is that this is now a frightening world for many people, and as the majority of people come to the realisations that members of ATS have been grappling with for months, there is a sense of panic and impending doom generated across society.

So... we need level heads. We need people that when everyone else panics in a coupe of weeks, there are those everyone else can look to as examples of how a business world forced into isolation can still function effectively... and in fact with the right organisational techniques, can even thrive and benefit society in these trying times.

We need people who suggest, instead of canceling meetings, to have them via conference calls... we need people who can re-imagine a work place that actively keeps people distanced... ideas like 24-hour scheduled small staff teams, in business that have to "be there".

It's all possible... as long as we don't destroy society in our panic that is... interesting times ahead either way!

I maintain a positive outlook in the inherent good of people.

You are not the only one that has made this decision, so don't beat yourself up over it. Who cares what others think.

We locked in on Friday afternoon. Mostly to protect my 85 yo mother, but none of us want to get this stuff either.

originally posted by: XCrycek

originally posted by: musicismagic

originally posted by: MrRCflying
And so it begins with fast food.

Taco Bell plans to do drive through, or delivery only. No more sitting at a cramped booth, scarfing down mystery meat.

Taco Bell

lost my post
dont eat at any fast food restaurants

You can't catch it through food so drivethroughs are safe, unless the one handing you the food over touches your hand and than you touch your face afterwards etc.

I have a client in Long Island who said 20-30 people where infected by a cook who was infected and serving food and swanky wine bar. So there is that..

Coronavirus in Greenland. One confirmed case.

Damn.

sermitsiaq.ag...

So, I've been thinking about what tanstaafl has been saying and it makes sense however there are more than one group of high risk people here in the US I think many forget. We are running about 42% obesity rate in the US and many with obesity suffer other health conditions that are associated with it such as type 2 diabetes. These 42% of Americans aren't just older. They comprise all age groups. If we are going to focus our isolation/lock-down of older high risk individuals, should we not also do the same or the brunt of those 42%? How would you do that? If you are over 65 you're locked down. If you are over 28% (or pick a number) body fat, boom - locked down. Marginally obese but still have type 2, locked-down. Higher susceptibility to respiratory issues (smokers, cola miners, maybe vapers) - locked em down.

What about high blood pressure. 1 our 3 American have high blood pressure, many of them don't even know. How do you separate that group out as well (although the obesity contributes to many of these but certainly not all)? These individuals are also in a high risk group.

So while I agree on tanstaafl's proposals to isolate older at risk people - especially in long term care facilities, I do not see how we can't aggressively address the other higher percentage of the population that are also high risk. If you think a 38 year old obese male with type 2 diabetes and high blood pressure isn't likely to land up in ICU as fast as a 80 year resident in a senior living center you're wrong and that is were we run the risk of over stressing the system.

I live in Texas, a state known for its share of 'bubbas' and believe me, some of these guys cant get up a flight of stairs without huffing and puffing and breaking into a sweat. These are high risk individuals that need to be isolated as well because there are a lot of them and if they start to go down, the system goes down.

tanstaafl what is your suggestion for these scenarios?

a reply to: pasiphae

Man, don’t talk like that. You need to fight for your family! Push yourself harder than you ever pushed yourself. Look at your family really good, doesn’t that make you want to fight?!?! For me, I am not going out like but I also was in the Marines.

a reply to: tanstaafl

Why must you continue to downplay this when we have so little data? You keep saying this isn't worse than the flu when the numbers already say it is much worse than the flu.

Has China (in modern times) had to quarantine people over the flu? Italy? Korea? I mean this isn't some grand conspiracy against the orange one, these countries could care less about him.

Few things we STILL aren't really talking about. Survivors having permanent lung damage, and the fact that CoronaVirus's are like the cold. We will get reinfected. What happens then?

Plain and simple EVERYONE will eventually get this. Much of the panic right now is combine from three things.

1. Flatten the curve is the correct approach, but it is driving much fear and hoarding
2. We still really don't know an awful lot exactly how this is going to get played out
3. People continuing to send mixed messages. Which again drives fear. It is much better for people to get told the truth because RESOLVE then takes the place of fear. The unknown is much scarier than the known.