Corona Virus Updates Part 5

Heres some numbers for you that I'm going to repost

368 people died in Italy in 24 hours over the weekend.

More than half of coronavirus cases in France under intensive care are below the age of 60

We all know that China has not been at all truthful about anything including their numbers. Here is my perspective albeit short of an exponential factor.


Italy's population 60m is approx. 4.29% of China's (assume 1.4Bn)

Italy infections 24,747 and deaths 1,809 in lets say 4 weeks

That suggests that 0.4 % of Italy's population have been infected in approx. 4 weeks
And 7.3% of those have died

That would suggest that Italy's numbers after 14 weeks would be in the minimum region of 86614 infected and 6331 deaths and that is without applying any exponential factor

So based on Italy's current numbers and minimum projected then China's numbers should be at least as follows based on their population size. 1400000000/60000000= 23.33

So the Chinese infections should already be 86614 * 23.33 = 2,020,705 and that is without applying an exponential factor
And the number of deaths should be 7.3% of infected which is 147,511

The question is what exponential factor (based on the more infections the more increased infections) should be applied to get the approx. final numbers after 14 weeks? x2 or x3 or x5 or x10? i.e. each newly infected person infecting how many more and so on. Suggestions?

I suggest that the above numbers are the very minimum and that the true figures will be much much higher!

The above is why China's borders should have been closed in Jan. Why weren't they is a BIG QUESTION.

originally posted by: Bicent
a reply to: elitegamer23
I also am coming to the conclusion of a lockdown quarantine, the older population in my state is already demanding it. The old rich people in Florida hold the chips.

I have no problem declaring a quarantine/lockdown for the elderly and at-risk (underlying health conditions - especially in group homes and areas where their presence is concentrated.

Do that, let this thing run its course through the very low risk population while life goes on more nrmally, then slowly start opening the quarantined homes etc...

Makes perfect sense.

www.reuters.com...
Iran's death toll from coronavirus increases to 853: official

DUBAI (Reuters) - Iran’s death toll from the new coronavirus has reached 853 with 129 new deaths in the past 24 hours, a health ministry official tweeted on Monday, adding that 14,991 people have been infected across Iran.

“In the past 24 hours we had 1,053 confirmed new cases of coronavirus and 129 new deaths,” Alireza Vahabzadeh tweeted.

I don't care what the numbers are as far as deaths.

When France says half of the people with the virus under 60 are under intensive care it should frighten anyone.

I had pneumonia in 2003 in my mid 20's. It almost killed me and left scars on my lungs.

If this virus is anything close to or worse then that it puts the fear of god into me. How does permanently losing 10% or 20% of your lung capacity sound to you?

After I got pneumonia I continued coughing for a month. I'm 44 now I do not want to experience that again.

Not allergic at all, realistic, something which some here appear incapable of being.

This is why I prefer looking at the average global CFR rather than handpicked favourable CFR’s.

Would love you to be right - but unfortunately I think you’re going to be wrong bigly. a reply to: tanstaafl

a reply to: MaverickLRD

Just for the sake of balance. It may be the case that the virus dies quicker if it is on "food surfaces" as compared to other surfaces. We have already had studies showing that how long the virus stays alive on a surface varies depending on the surface (not completely sure why but it seems to be the case). So most certainly, I think it would still be possible to catch it from food if a sneeze lands on it, it might just be less likely due to it not living as long on it. Just wanted to bring this up because it does look like the type of surface has an effect on the longevity of it.

www.livescience.com...

originally posted by: ontarff
Is this information correct? I have not seen Dr. Fauci or any others on media commenting on this COVID-19 reinfection hazard.

ZeroHedge Article

Interestingly, the problem appears to be the meds used to treat the first round (from the linked article):

"A few people recovered from the first time by their own immune system, but the meds they use are damaging their heart tissue, and when they get it the second time, the antibody doesn’t help but makes it worse, and they die a sudden death from heart failure,"

If this is true...

originally posted by: wantsome
I don't care what the numbers are as far as deaths.

When France says half of the people with the virus under 60 are under intensive care it should frighten anyone.

I had pneumonia in 2003 in my mid 20's. It almost killed me and left scars on my lungs.

If this virus is anything close to or worse then that it puts the fear of god into me. How does permanently losing 10% or 20% of your lung capacity sound to you?

After I got pneumonia I continued coughing for a month. I'm 44 now I do not want to experience that again.

I had pneumonia about 5 years ago. I am 44 as well, so must have been in my late 30s. Anyway, I ended up breaking 2 ribs from coughing. Extremely painful. Like you, something I do not want to experience again.

Spoke to my elderly neighbour yesterday (in the UK) she said "there's no way I'm stopping in the house for months I'll go mad".

I imagine most people will feel the same way. So what can the authorities do?

They haven't enough numbers to tackle crime, nevermind an army of delinquent pensioners.

They're threatening to fine them, a lot of them won't have the money, they're threatening to lock them up - where exactly?

I feel things are going to unravel socially very, very quickly.

On a side note, the stock markets getting hammered again, loads of businesses will go bust - on the SM - airlines, insurance companies, banks, retailers, foodies like restaurant groups, pub chains, fast food, sandwich shops, costa etc, sports companies, etc, etc, etc.

There are going to be a LOT of unemployed people looking for food and work and unable to find (or afford) much of either.

What then?

A message to all the bickering on here about figures/CFR'S/RO'S whatever.

Over the centuries cliche's have survived and run true due to countless individuals life experiences.
Forming these cliche's has evolved as a message to future generations as a tool to see through the nonsense if only they think and look.

The main cliche I'd like to point out is "actions speak louder than words" now think about that in relation to this CV situation.

Simply - The actions of countries with quarantines and lockdowns, the effects on economy/stock markets and the proposed stimulus packages, the knock on effects to individuals,employment, personal freedoms and most likely for want of a better term impending martial law.

Now i ask you sincerely -

Do these actions balance the scales with the advertised figures your all arguing over and turning on each other over. NO THEY DO NOT.

We are being lied to, mislead, pre programmed to turn on each other - in effect drip fed a particular agenda that will not end well for humanity.

Watch the actions not the figures - the figures are bogus. But most importantly prepare, prepare to go underground and take no vaccinations, your very lifes soon enough will depend on it.

"Actions speak louder than words" - Can it be any clearer.

Do not take the mark/vaccine.

originally posted by: tanstaafl

originally posted by: Bicent
a reply to: elitegamer23
I also am coming to the conclusion of a lockdown quarantine, the older population in my state is already demanding it. The old rich people in Florida hold the chips.

I have no problem declaring a quarantine/lockdown for the elderly and at-risk (underlying health conditions - especially in group homes and areas where their presence is concentrated.

Do that, let this thing run its course through the very low risk population while life goes on more nrmally, then slowly start opening the quarantined homes etc...

Makes perfect sense.

www.wmbfnews.com...

NEWS
Two ER doctors in US in ‘critical condition’ with coronavirus

ACEP said that a doctor in his 40s in the state of Washington and a doctor in his 70s in New Jersey tested positive for the coronavirus

a reply to: SoulReaper

I personally wouldnt get a vaccine for it. Most certainly i have read that it has been difficult to find a vaccine for SARS, especially one that didnt have negative effects for the people taking it. Likewise all this talk about certain places skirting certain safety protocols/procedures to get the vaccine out quicker is worrisome, as that seems like a recipe for disaster. I usually err on the side of better to be safe than sorry. We also dont know how much the virus could mutate which can further decrease the effectiveness of any vaccine.

It's also why i advocate/am for quarantines and isolation procedures, because id rather do that than be stabbed with something and have foreign things be put into my body. Foreign things that may not even work, or could cause more harm.

Updates from New England:

Note that these are from people I know working in these fields.

EMS response to medical calls is now significantly limited. Fire and certain EMT UNITS. Fire will no longer respond to medical calls. EMT basic may not be responding to probable CoV calls either.

Hospitals are running out of PPE, specifically N95 masks. They tell staff no airborne transmission, patient tests positive, staff members placed on 14 day quarantine.

Critical staff are the only staff reporting to Universities and Hospitals. This means only Healthcare, research, facilities etc.

National Guard units activated to support DPH programs, some units on standby. New York units are not receiving proper PPE and being placed in active areas. Other states seem to be doing what they are supposed to do. Most likely a budgetary issue.

Significant increase in respiratory symptom patients in hospitals, rooms are full, every respiratory patient is being tested if they show respiratory symptoms. Too many for isolation protocols to be effective. This will impact testing and diagnostic algorithms. Healthcare personnel getting sick. Hallways are filling up.

VA hospitals and other research hospitals are closing most entry exit points. There is limited screening for people entering and exiting the buildings.

Governors exploring mandatory closures and expanding school closure time and scope. Soup kitchens are closing, shelters are unable to support systems.

Most businesses seem to be open, schools, universities, Healthcare facilities are the only ones I have noticed telling people to stay home. Temporary and contract staff getting gutted though which is terrible.

States are preparing and briefing staff for a major public health crisis and quarantine protocols using emergency staff and military units to mitigate the crisis.

Cool stuff, nothing unexpected yet but it's reached that point where it just got real.

ETA: Counterfeit test kits are in circulation that are not effective. Nice right?

originally posted by: tanstaafl
Germany is currently at 0.2%.[...]
.

How are you getting that number?

Source
6 thousand-odd cases
46 recovered
13 dead

You can't compare the 6.000 that just got tested today with the 13 dead, that have been sick for the last month.

If you compare dead to recovered we're at 25%.

If you go back 3 weeks (I think that was on average what it takes until it kills you) then you will notice, there were only 16 sick
Chart

And now 13 dead.

Now there are over 6.000 sick (in Germany) how many will be dead in 3 weeks time?


Where do we have the 3,4% from?
It can't have been 3 weeks, until it kills you?

originally posted by: TheAMEDDDoc
Updates from New England:

Note that these are from people I know working in these fields.

EMS response to medical calls is now significantly limited. Fire and certain EMT UNITS. Fire will no longer respond to medical calls. EMT basic may not be responding to probable CoV calls either.

Hospitals are running out of PPE, specifically N95 masks. They tell staff no airborne transmission, patient tests positive, staff members placed on 14 day quarantine.

Critical staff are the only staff reporting to Universities and Hospitals. This means only Healthcare, research, facilities etc.

National Guard units activated to support DPH programs, some units on standby. New York units are not receiving proper PPE and being placed in active areas. Other states seem to be doing what they are supposed to do. Most likely a budgetary issue.

Significant increase in respiratory symptom patients in hospitals, rooms are full, every respiratory patient is being tested if they show respiratory symptoms. Too many for isolation protocols to be effective. This will impact testing and diagnostic algorithms. Healthcare personnel getting sick. Hallways are filling up.

VA hospitals and other research hospitals are closing most entry exit points. There is limited screening for people entering and exiting the buildings.

Governors exploring mandatory closures and expanding school closure time and scope. Soup kitchens are closing, shelters are unable to support systems.

Most businesses seem to be open, schools, universities, Healthcare facilities are the only ones I have noticed telling people to stay home. Temporary and contract staff getting gutted though which is terrible.

States are preparing and briefing staff for a major public health crisis and quarantine protocols using emergency staff and military units to mitigate the crisis.

Cool stuff, nothing unexpected yet but it's reached that point where it just got real.

And this is coming to a city near you.

Thanks for being part of this thread man!

As expected China's numbers are slowly creeping up as they restart the factories...

Uk Salisbury (yes that one)

Just been into city centre (personally i would say town but its officially a city but pop. is c.40/50k) anyway fairly besides the point.

It was much quieter than normal indeed i would guess as quiet or more so than the Novichok incident last year.

Also Mrs just had dentist ring and cancel her appt for this week too (was routine)

Wondering what it's like elsewhere around the country - you noticing it quieter or pretty much bau?

originally posted by: MindBodySpiritComplex
UK coronavirus crisis 'to last until spring 2021 and could see 7.9m hospitalised'
“As many as 80% of the population are expected to be infected with Covid-19 in the next 12 months, and up to 15% (7.9 million people) may require hospitalisation.”

USA numbers looking a little better...

3,806 confirmed cases
69 deaths
1.8% CFR (dropping)

Best news is, all 3,654 of the remaining cases are classified as mild, with ZERO serious/critical!

originally posted by: BowBells
a reply to: Irishhaf
but... the amount of deaths is still terrible :-(

No deaths are good, but...

Do you get the same way every year due to the much much larger number of deaths due to the flu? Pneumonia? If not, then what makes these so different?

I'm asking honestly. I just don't get it.