Corona Virus Updates Part 5

originally posted by: tanstaafl

originally posted by: hopenotfeariswhatweneed
3 months of data and this is your conclusion.....

Yes. The numbers speak for themselves.

In 12 months do you expect it to remain the same...?

a reply to: tanstaafl

Soz yes - in my defence i'm having trouble even seeing my keyboard as the house is so stocked up on TP (joke - we are lucky enough to be one of the elite who actually have plumbing which provides water)

Even if we didn't spring is upon us and nature is starting to provide a huge choice of fresh leaves (just dont use nettles )

originally posted by: tanstaafl
0.5-1% CFR = 405,000 to 810,000 dead.

0.5-1% is a very optimistic estimate of the CFR. Just calculating based on the total confirmed deaths/cases (worldwide) we get a CFR of over 3.8% -- sure there's likely many many more cases not reported, but at the same time we're not calculating in the unresolved cases of which there is currently over 85 thousand cases -- so while it might not be 3.8% I find it very difficult to believe it's anywhere near as low as 0.5-1% -- and there are many published articles/researchers that put the estimate quite a bit higher than that.

Not to mention the CFR is inevitably going to get a lot higher as the medical resources (hospital beds, equipment, staff, etc) become more and more overwhelmed. There'll likely be countless deaths as an indirect result of this, even if their official cause of death is not the virus.

I have no problem with you taking a slightly more optimistic outlook on where this is heading, but I think you're being slightly disingenuous with your stats and shortsightedness. And of course we're not even taking into consideration the catastrophic economic implications of what's happening... it's very early days yet but we can already see signs that the global economy is going to be taking a massive hit and who knows what the ripple effects of this will bring going forward.

One things for sure, it's going to be an interesting/depressing year.

originally posted by: Thejaybird

originally posted by: all2human
a reply to: Thejaybird

I agree lets not do anything and the numbers should stay the same if not just vanish
China's rehearsal for April fools really had us going, what were we thinking.
And Iran,they just crazy,what bad acting they will never get enough likes on Youtube.

Please, just stop posting.

Be careful? Absolutely.

Be ridiculous? Nope. Knock that # off.

The "numbers" are ridiculous. I live in California. We have four MILLION inhabitants. There are 355 cases of COVID-19. That's 0.0083 percent of our population.

Do the math.

Stop it.

Deny ignorance, right?

Ahh. Another mutation. This virus changes fast, but apparently not as fast as some posters on this thread.

Vittorio Gregotti, an architect who helped renovate the 1992 Barcelona Olympic stadium, has died at the age of 92 after catching coronavirus.

BBC News

originally posted by: hopenotfeariswhatweneed
In 12 months do you expect it to remain the same...?

I am not a prophet. I am watching the numbers.

I do fully expect, and have always expected, the numbers to rise. What I am closely watching is the ratio of infected to serious/critical to deaths. If this ratio remains relatively constant, as it has so far, then only those in the high risk categories should be afraid of this virus, and that is where we should be focusing mitigation efforts - not on economy destroying, extreme measures that will be in vain in the end.

originally posted by: Navieko

Not to mention the CFR is inevitably going to get a lot higher as the medical resources (hospital beds, equipment, staff, etc) become more and more overwhelmed. There'll likely be countless deaths as an indirect result of this, even if their official cause of death is not the virus.

Yes, This.

Geez, I think of all the people who die because of nosocomial infections and medical errors every year. This can only be worse when hospitals become crowded and staff spread out even more thinly and overworked.

en.wikipedia.org...

www.npr.org...

originally posted by: Navieko
0.5-1% is a very optimistic estimate of the CFR. Just calculating based on the total confirmed deaths/cases (worldwide) we get a CFR of over 3.8% -- sure there's likely many many more cases not reported, but at the same time we're not calculating in the unresolved cases of which there is currently over 85 thousand cases -- so while it might not be 3.8% I find it very difficult to believe it's anywhere near as low as 0.5-1% -- and there are many published articles/researchers that put the estimate quite a bit higher than that.

SK has been hovering between 0.7 and 0.9% this entire time.

Germany is currently at 0.2%.

The higher rates in some places (like Italy) are explainable (it is rampant in their elderly communities - as evidenced by the median age of deaths at 81 years old). Others, like China - I don't believe their numbers, but I also believe that China, NK and Iran are fully capable of exploiting this event to murder as many dissidents as they can and blame it on the virus.

So, while I acknowledge the final numbers could easily change, right now, based on all of the figures we have to go by, I disagree that 0.5-1% is a 'very optimistic' figure.

Not to mention the CFR is inevitably going to get a lot higher as the medical resources (hospital beds, equipment, staff, etc) become more and more overwhelmed.

If we allow that to happen, yes. And I agree it will very possibly happen, because no one is taking mys suggestion to focus entirely on protecting those most at risk, and both locking down (require all care-giovers to live in with the residents until the quarantine is lifted) these group homes where they are heavily congregated, and provide very detailed instructions to those who have high risk relatives/friends living with them, on how to keep them safe.

There'll likely be countless deaths as an indirect result of this, even if their official cause of death is not the virus.[/quote
As well as deaths as a result of the extreme measures being taken now that are shutting down the economy of the world (worst impacted will be the poor in the poorest of nations).

I have no problem with you taking a slightly more optimistic outlook on where this is heading, but I think you're being slightly disingenuous with your stats and shortsightedness. And of course we're not even taking into consideration the catastrophic economic implications of what's happening.

Au contraire, that is precisely what I am screaming about.

it's very early days yet but we can already see signs that the global economy is going to be taking a massive hit and who knows what the ripple effects of this will bring going forward.

Yeah, it was bad enough what was inevitable due to the pipeline issues caused by China shutting everything down.

One things for sure, it's going to be an interesting/depressing year.

On that we agree completely. I just hope my parents survive it. In fact, I'd much prefer they get it now, rather than in the middle of the storm, when ventilators/beds are scarce.

Development?

www.abovetopsecret.com...

a reply to: tanstaafl

we accept that you are not a prophet - but based on EVERY other pandemic in history

what do you think the trend of N19COVID will be ?

originally posted by: tanstaafl

originally posted by: hopenotfeariswhatweneed
In 12 months do you expect it to remain the same...?

I am not a prophet. I am watching the numbers.

I do fully expect, and have always expected, the numbers to rise. What I am closely watching is the ratio of infected to serious/critical to deaths. If this ratio remains relatively constant, as it has so far, then only those in the high risk categories should be afraid of this virus, and that is where we should be focusing mitigation efforts - not on economy destroying, extreme measures that will be in vain in the end.

Completely reasonable, assuming the numbers are real..

originally posted by: tanstaafl

originally posted by: hopenotfeariswhatweneed
3 months of data and this is your conclusion.....

Yes. The numbers speak for themselves.

Unless you try and speak for them.

Worldwide CFR is roughly 3.4%
CFR in Italy running between 6-8%

CFR in France, Spain, Iran and USA is significant and nowhere near 1%.

Banging on about South Korea in isolation is disingenuous. Well in my opinion and of course it is only my opinion.

originally posted by: ignorant_ape
a reply to: tanstaafl
what do you think the trend of N19COVID will be ?

I base that on what we have now - the ratios of infected to serious/critical to deaths has remained relatively constant.

So, I expect - hope - that trend continues.

If the numbers change, I'll adjust my expectations (but not my hopes).

originally posted by: ARM1968
originally posted by: tanstaafl
"Yes. The numbers speak for themselves."

Unless you try and speak for them.

Good thing I'm not. I'm simply pointing, and saying 'look!'...

Worldwide CFR is roughly 3.4%

Yep.

CFR in Italy running between 6-8%

Yep - and I pointed out reasons why.

CFR in France, Spain, Iran and USA is significant and nowhere near 1%.

USA is just under 2%, currently, so, depends on what your definition of 'nowhere near' is.

And since I think everyone here agrees the US is woefully behind on testing, once the results from new testing efforts start coming in, I fully expect our CFR to start coming down considerably, more in line with - yes, banging on again - SK, maybe even Germany.

Banging on about South Korea in isolation is disingenuous.

No, it is a real number/statistic, so I prefer to look at it as me simply being optimistic/hopeful that their numbers will end up being the more realistic.

Well in my opinion and of course it is only my opinion.

Don't forget, I'm also banging on about Germany (currently at 0.2%)

You seem to be allergic to the more positive numbers in SK and Germany... why is that?

originally posted by: Blue_Jay33
AGE

DEATH RATE

80+ years old
21.9%

Worldometers still shows t his as 14.8% - where did you get the 21.9% figure?

That said - another stat we really, really need to see added to the list is underlying health issues, as I suspect that these actually have more to do with the CFR than just age (its just that most people over 80 have serious underlying health problems).

originally posted by: Bicent
a reply to: Blue_Jay33

Who says it’s a over reaction?

Seriously? None have died, JJ says kids are going to die in droves, and you don't think that is an over reaction?

sheesh...

originally posted by: tanstaafl

originally posted by: RP2SticksOfDynamite
My numbers are not made up but based on assumption of potential continued infection rates. Obviously if the infection rates lessen the final numbers will be less!!

You are confusing infection rates with the CFR.

The higher the infection rate (unknown) vs deaths (mostly known), the lower the real/actual CFR is revealed to be.

The made up numbers is your 5-10% CFR. As I pointed out (guess you missed it).

No I am not. I am just making an assumption that the final death rate will be 5% of total infected. So if 1 billion infected then the death rate will be 50m!

Here is one to get your head around:

Italy's population 60m is approx. 4.29% of China's (assume 1.4Bn)

Italy infections 24,747 and deaths 1,809 in lets say 4 weeks

That suggests that 0.4 % of Italy's population have been infected in approx. 4 weeks
And 7.3% of those have died

That would suggest that Italy's numbers after 14 weeks would be in the minimum region of 86614 infected and 6331 deaths and that is without applying any exponential factor

So based on Italy's current numbers and minimum projected then China's numbers should be at least as follows based on their population size. 1400000000/60000000= 23.33

So the Chinese infections should already be 86614 * 23.33 = 2,020,705 and that is without applying an exponential factor
And the number of deaths should be 7.3% of infected which is 147,511

The question is what exponential factor (based on the more infections the more increased infections) should be applied to get the approx. final numbers after 14 weeks? x2 or x3 or x5 or x10? i.e. each newly infected person infecting how many more and so on.

I suggest that the above numbers are the very minimum and that the true figures will be much much higher!

The above is why China's borders should have been closed in Jan. Why weren't they is a BIG QUESTION.

originally posted by: MonkeyBalls2
France is at +924 for the Day, and +36 Deaths according to Worldometer, which isn't far off reality.

Ok, so based on these numbers, France's CFR is about 2.3% - more than a full point below the WHO global estimate. Isn't that a good thing (relatively)?

Switzerland is very scary at the moment.
+842 for the day.

CFR hovering around 0.6%.

Italy, +3590 and +368 Deaths.

Italy is bad, yes - and there is ample reasoning why (this thing somehow got let loose in their elderly/health impaired population and is ravaging it). This is bad, and very sad. But explainable.

Spain and Germany are pretty close, and increasing fast.

Spain's CFR is around 3.3%, but Germany's is 0.2%... so... what do you mean 'pretty close?

originally posted by: Thejaybird

originally posted by: hopenotfeariswhatweneed

originally posted by: Thejaybird

originally posted by: redpassion
a reply to: Thejaybird

yea, I wonder how many Italians said that same thing a few weeks ago.....

We are not Italy.

Good job buying the media hype.

A few weeks ago, I was in Disneyland, elbow to elbow with lots of folks. Do I have the coronavirus? Nope.

Fourteen days later? Still, nope.

Enjoy your media influenced and dictated nonsense. Bravo.

I see you are still at the denial stage....

I do not deny anything. The coronavirus is absolutely a thing.

It is not something to fear, though. If you do, you are absolutely falling for the media virus hook, line, and sinker.

No need to spam this thread like you are . You’re not adding any new information but you are trying to derail the conversation here .

I’m sorry if you’re about to lose your job because of this historic world event . Sorry if you are losing your butt because of wallstreet and that 401k that has made you believe you would be a millionaire someday .

I’ve been paying attention to this thread , and the “ media”, since mid January .

It was not hyped at all for the longest time by the media. Maybe 2 weeks ago the mass media finally started to make it a big deal.

Start your own thread to complain and warn the few who will take you seriously .

originally posted by: RP2SticksOfDynamite
No I am not. I am just making an assumption that the final death rate will be 5% of total infected.

Yes... ass-u-me-ing.

I prefer to stick to the numbers in front of us. But thanks for playing.

Here is one to get your head around:

Italy's population 60m is approx. 4.29% of China's (assume 1.4Bn)

-snip-

I suggest that the above numbers are the very minimum and that the true figures will be much much higher!

You have chosen to base your numbers all on Italy - a 'worst case scenario', with reasons why their numbers are so high.

This is the definition of fear-mongering. Please stop it.

There are also legitimate reasons why SK, Germany and the USA's numbers are dramatically different (much lower CFR), yet you choose to completely ignore these numbers. Also, our CFR will only be going down as more and more tests are given and those infected but not exhibiting any symptoms are added to the tally.