Corona Virus Updates Part 5

originally posted by: Thejaybird
The "numbers" are ridiculous. I live in California. We have four MILLION inhabitants. There are 355 cases of COVID-19. That's 0.0083 percent of our population.

You do realize that any one of the other nations that are currently getting 1000+ new cases a day had all started off with just a few hundred cases total as well right? Just because California currently only has 355 cases, how on earth could you be so short sighted to believe that the numbers are not going to grow exponentially higher in the coming days & weeks? There is a good reason all the World's governments/leaders/experts (people a lot more knowledgeable/smarter on these matters than you or I) are more or less taking the same drastic measures to contain this virus, and there is no reason to expect the USA will fare much better than other badly affected nations unless quick & decisive decisions are made, no matter how "outrageous" or drastic you deem them to be.

Can you explain your stance and is why you think that way jaybird...

a reply to: primalfractal

I believe the numbers, and for sure this thing is coming. But there is still no reliable information demonstrating the virus is completely awol.

What we're seeing is a demonstration of poor leadership. They, politicians, have all adopted a panic in a crisis position, because it's easy. Keeping a level head in situations like this is critical. Had the pollies been quicker with the travel restrictions and slower in trying to implement near martial law, then there would be less panic, concern for sure but less ridiculous panic.

Seriously it doesn't take much imagination to realise that for many, self isolation is just not doable. One of those situations being, no job, no money and you're expected to get someone else to do your shopping for you.......do me a favour .......they're having a # laugh.

a reply to: Thejaybird

Like you I believe in modern medicine, and I know first hand how the media can twist things to get the story. I don’t trust them for a second.

But you have to take step back and look at the world right now. This is not media driven. The entire planet, although I feel grossly delayed are reacting to this very seriously. I think they don’t know entirely what they are dealing with and are perhaps not telling us everything. This thing could turn into a three headed dragon from hell or end up being another seasonal bug to deal with but in the end...

You should never underestimate your enemy.(meaning the virus)

originally posted by: ShortBus

originally posted by: ARM1968

originally posted by: DAZ21
a reply to: MonkeyBalls2

But hold on, China has been at 80,000 for the past month, so that shows it can be virtually stopped with certain measures.

I don’t think the Chinese have stopped this for one minute. Not a chance. Even if they had mostly, once their cities open up again and the worlds workshop grinds back into action it will come again. This won’t be done until it’s done or until a viable, reliable vaccine has been produced. Even then such a vaccine might be almost useless - we shall see.

I think it is reasonable to say that Covid-19 will sweep the globe, have its way with us, and then leave us to pick up the pieces. Best we can hope for is the flattening of the curve enough to keep our health care systems from collapsing under its weight.

Hope I’m wrong.

China will have a lot of explaining to do... when they stop at 80,000, when Italy or other countries cross the 80,000 mark, especially, when China has so many more people.

They could have told the truth in Jan and closed their borders and we would not have the pandemic we have now. But maybe it was deliberate they did not! There may be some very big questions that need answering, by whom I don't know. But I do suspect we are experiencing a depopulation be it accidental (earlier than planned) of deliberate. And the virus tool set is indicative of that. Hope I am wrong....but........

originally posted by: Slyder12
a reply to: Thejaybird

Like you I believe in modern medicine, and I know first hand how the media can twist things to get the story. I don’t trust them for a second.

But you have to take step back and look at the world right now. This is not media driven. The entire planet, although I feel grossly delayed are reacting to this very seriously. I think they don’t know entirely what they are dealing with and are not telling us everything. This thing could turn into a three headed dragon from hell or end up being another seasonal bug to deal with but in the end...

You should never underestimate your enemy.

IMO, China is China. I would not, in any circumstance, use them as a medical pinnacle to compare to. Not with as ass backward as they are hygienically and as polluted as they are. That's akin to trying to guesstimate a disease's spread here based off India's hygiene and pollution -- It's not even apples to oranges, it's freaking car tires to oranges.

Again, IMO, from the CT angle, consider just how much government bullsnip you're willing to scarf down before you question something. Because really, a test of that on the populace is much more likely than Super Cold 2020 turning into the new plague.

originally posted by: Thejaybird

originally posted by: all2human
a reply to: Thejaybird

I agree lets not do anything and the numbers should stay the same if not just vanish
China's rehearsal for April fools really had us going, what were we thinking.
And Iran,they just crazy,what bad acting they will never get enough likes on Youtube.

Please, just stop posting.

Be careful? Absolutely.

Be ridiculous? Nope. Knock that # off.

The "numbers" are ridiculous. I live in California. We have four MILLION inhabitants. There are 355 cases of COVID-19. That's 0.0083 percent of our population.

Do the math.

Stop it.

Deny ignorance, right?

There’s a hell of a lot more people in California than 4 million

a reply to: MaverickLRD

I think he simply forgot the TY at the end of "four" there. or was autocorrected to "four". It happens.

Edit: That's assuming he accidentally mispelled forty anyway, as fourty. I've done that a few times myself in my life.

a reply to: Nyiah

Ahh that makes more sense. Thx

Some of y'all might want to consider same.

Wife and I discussed tonight: we are prepared for weeks, both now work from home, are quaranteening all mail or packages, and staying away from all people, at least until we run out of milk and eggs.

The stress of keeping up on the Chinese Wuhan Virus is a big stress in itself, so we agreed after tonight, we are avoiding all Chinese Wuhan Virus news until at least Wednesday. Maybe go for a walk tomorrow evening. Do a bit of spring cleaning. Get the early garden green established, and sprout the tomatoes, ect.

HUGE THANK YOU to many posters since Thread #1, Post #1!!! With all your help, we can relax and ride out the storm. (Wife is calling it a "practice retirement.)

It is gonna be really weird to not even check in after reading every post until the one before this.

I wish you all safety and good health. Read ya Thursday.

originally posted by: Thejaybird


A mask won't stop the virus.

Thanks for the heads up, though.

I am well aware that it is still all in play. I teach at a school that is closed for the next two weeks. I called bull# on that, too.

Somewhere, in the thousands of posts in these five threads, a member posted links to at least three published, peer-reviewed studies that masks--even stupid, homemade ones--did help stop the spread of viral respiratory disease. Due to those studies, this latest thing of, "masks won't protect you" becomes highly suspect as propaganda to funnel more masks to the healthcare sector than reliable advice based on truth.

a reply to: myselfaswell

Certainly bad leadership, earlier travel restrictions are a no brainer. Not implementing them in time points to extreme incompetence, or deliberate spread.

If they were done even a month earlier, and surely they had the predicted estimates then, I think they could've had a chance at controlling it here.

Self isolation is a tricky one, hard or maybe not possible for the jobless or low income who are renting, and didn't realise this was happening months ago. There is a $750 coronavirus payment being given out April 1st for all welfare recipients. Wonder if there will be anything left in the supermarkets by then?

Australians receiving welfare support will be eligible for the $750 coronavirus stimulus payment.

UPDATE: The government is reportedly considering a second stimulus package amid complaints the initial package does not go far enough. Prime Minister Scott Morrison, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg and Finance Minister Mathias Cormann are reportedly in rolling meetings all Monday to consider the next steps.

14 March: The Australian government announced its $17.6 billion coronavirus stimulus package on Thursday, which includes $750 cash payments for around 6.5 million Australians. 

au.finance.yahoo.com...

a reply to: JamieJJones

Youngest victim. As in died.

originally posted by: BowBells
a reply to: JamieJJones

Youngest victim. As in died.

If we just look at deaths versus hospitalizations, that may be an error. If this thing overwhelms the healthcare system, the younger victims who lived may not do so if they can't get access to medical care.

Even if they do get care, the more pressure on healthcare workers and the hospital environment, the more likely even the young will experience bad outcomes. Fatal nosocomial infections (MRSA, C. diff, etc.) and medical errors won't disappear in a time of crisis. I think it would be logical to assume they'd increase.

As for deaths so far, it looks like a 29 y/o may be the holder of the title "youngest dead victim" to date. This thing is so fluid, however, and deaths have been misidentified as pneumonia or influenza, so who knows.

www.businessinsider.com...

originally posted by: Thejaybird
My goodness...

We have 355 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in California.

That's 0.003 of our population. Seriously.

Just stop. This is mass hysteria on a macro basis.

Dude....

10 days ago in the U.S. there were a little over 100 cases today there are 3,800 cases. Imagine what it is going to look like 2 months from now. You are in for a very rude awakening buddy.

originally posted by: RP2SticksOfDynamite
Declared cases! The real numbers could be staggering and we are about to find out how staggering.

I hope so, because the more actual infected - that were previously going undetected because they were either completely asymptomatic or whose symptoms were so minor they weren't inclined to see anyone about it - the lower the real/actual CFR will be...

If the numbers outside China are expected to continue to grow exponentially to a peak in approximately 10 weeks time (according to UK Chief MO)

What makes you think his guesses are correct? That is all he is doing, you know. It is far too early to be able to make solid prediction models. That said, as testing ramps up...

If the number of cases doubles every week for 10 weeks then number of cases worldwide will be something like this in 10 weeks and I would guess conservative at that!

80k x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 = 81m +
Assume 5-10% death rate = 4 to 8m dead

Or, you could use the far more likely CFR, which is based on the current/real/actual numbers we have today of 0.5-1% (as stated by Dr. Fauci), as opposed to your fear-mongered numbers - so:

Ass-u-me-ing your declared cases estimate of 81m

that would be

0.5-1% CFR = 405,000 to 810,000 dead.

Still not good, as it is admittedly 10+ times worse than the flu, but also, far less than your made-up numbers suggest, and simply doesn't justify destroying the worlds economy, especially when you understand - actually comprehend - that it is here, and nothing will stop it. The best thing to do would be to take a week or two of everything shut down to prep - lock down any and all of those at highest risk, especially in places like group homes/care facilities where they are heavily concentrated (by lock down, I mean, develop a system where the care givers are living in/with the residents for the duration of t he lock-down, to prevent chances of them bringing it in from outside) - then open the spigot and just let nature run its course.

Incidentally, I spoke with my two parents about this, as well as 3 other older people I know who are in the highest risk category, and they all said the exact same thing... without hesitation, they all said they would happily let this thing take them, rather than their children and grandchildren.

I don't want my parents to die, but they are going to die some day. It is called the great circle of life.

originally posted by: dainfamusgc
Well you have all the answers,

I'm glad you think so, thanks, but no... I know for a fact that I don't.

you must know more info than all the governments of the world, doctors, and experts.

No, I'm actually simply using the numbers and data that they are providing, pointing to it, and explaining that it is in direct contradictions to the doom-porn some are so fond of.

what do you suggest we do, just ignore it and go on about our lives.

I have said multiple times... protect those most at risk, and yes, absolutely, let nature takes its course.

And seriously how many times are you gonna post the same dribble

I could ask the doom-porners the same question.

if you think its non sense why even bother posting. This is an updates thread for people actually concerned.

I have never said this virus, or the risk it poses, is nonsense. What I have said is the reaction of many here is nonsense, because it is. I am here because like others, I am very concerned - my parents are in the highest risk category.

originally posted by: myselfaswell
a reply to: primalfractal

I believe the numbers, and for sure this thing is coming. But there is still no reliable information demonstrating the virus is completely awol.

What we're seeing is a demonstration of poor leadership. They, politicians, have all adopted a panic in a crisis position, because it's easy. Keeping a level head in situations like this is critical. Had the pollies been quicker with the travel restrictions and slower in trying to implement near martial law, then there would be less panic, concern for sure but less ridiculous panic.

Seriously it doesn't take much imagination to realise that for many, self isolation is just not doable. One of those situations being, no job, no money and you're expected to get someone else to do your shopping for you.......do me a favour .......they're having a # laugh.

You're a 100% right, so where do we go to move forward....

a reply to: Alien Abduct

You are in for a very rude awakening buddy.

Not really, he will perish quickly...

originally posted by: doggodlol
Think ull find in the uk there is a underlining of fear/panic.

Doom-porn tends to do that to people.

If we went into self isolation there will be more panic/fear.

One reason of many that we shouldn't do that.

Note: I can see a very good argument for locking things down for a very short period of time, like, one week.

Take that week to prep the higherst risk people. Lock them down. Especially in group home facilities where they are heavily concentrated. Require the care givers to move in and live with them for a few weeks, or even months if necessary, until the worst is over, then slowly, a few at a time, start returning them to normal operation, being prepared for the eventual outbreaks, so we can deal with them.

This virus is going to kill,

Some, yes, the vast majority being those with serious underlying conditions, and the elderly. So protect them. How hard is that?

schools will close.

If we close them. Again, no harm to do this for a week (or two if needed), as long as there is a focused plan in place.