Corona Virus Updates Part 5

originally posted by: MonkeyBalls2
OK, so yeah, screencap overload, but lets just get it done.

These are the updated Financial Times graphs (by John Burn-Murdoch) for the 9th April, much more interesting than just the numbers (that are really just for reference) :

Something is very wrong with that graph. France has posted multiple days over 1200 deaths over the past week or so.

This is 1 part of my reason for "no fun under the sun" for 3 years. The other part is what I've mentioned in private PM's. We just have to deal with the mentally ill to truly get down to business on containment. And this is no longer "MIM's street talk" . Its for real now.

Police arrested 53-year-old Jennifer Walker, of South Lake Tahoe, Wednesday after a Safeway store employee called to report a woman “licking groceries,”

wgntv.com...

originally posted by: Byrd
Reinfection may be fairly common

...which is not good news.

This on the same register, but talks about the Antibodies being neutralized.
www.medrxiv.org...

from this tweet :
twitter.com...

and here also, :
twitter.com...

a reply to: liejunkie01
It’s just simple numbers on a computer screen, pretty simple to plug in digits. I wish my bank account balance was as easy to do.

This whole thing is making less sense everyday.

originally posted by: burdman30ott6

originally posted by: MonkeyBalls2
OK, so yeah, screencap overload, but lets just get it done.

These are the updated Financial Times graphs (by John Burn-Murdoch) for the 9th April, much more interesting than just the numbers (that are really just for reference) :

Something is very wrong with that graph. France has posted multiple days over 1200 deaths over the past week or so.

It dpends on whether they are using just the Hospital deaths, or the data that includes the Retirement homes.
Not sure all of the retirement homes have been tested.

edit : Seems they use Worldometer, that includes the retirement homes.
Also, i'd have to look up what a 7 day rolling average is.


edit2 : Statistical jargon. Too late (2.35am) for me to understand right now.

A rolling average calculation has one concept very different from a simple standard average calculation. First, a standard average is calculated by taking a set number of pieces of data, adding them together, and dividing the total by the number of pieces of data used, referred to as "n."

originally posted by: MonkeyBalls2
Also, i'd have to look up what a 7 day rolling average is.

It means to plot a point at 1200 daily deaths, there needed to be (7 x 1200) deaths over a 7 day period. It doesn't matter if they are all 1200 or some are 900 and others are 1500.

As of 3 days ago the highest daily deaths in France was 833, so there is no way France should be showing 1200 daily deaths in a 7 day rolling average

originally posted by: burdman30ott6
Something is very wrong with that graph. France has posted multiple days over 1200 deaths over the past week or so.

Either something is wrong with your numbers or something is wrong with the article I linked saying 833 was the maximum as of 3 days ago.

originally posted by: liejunkie01
I officially do not believe any damned number that are produced by any country or entity.

I don't blame you, but I hope nobody is surprised that the numbers are way off, due to a lack of testing capability. The numbers from China are faked according to an intelligence report.

originally posted by: MonkeyBalls2

originally posted by: burdman30ott6

originally posted by: MonkeyBalls2
OK, so yeah, screencap overload, but lets just get it done.

These are the updated Financial Times graphs (by John Burn-Murdoch) for the 9th April, much more interesting than just the numbers (that are really just for reference) :

Something is very wrong with that graph. France has posted multiple days over 1200 deaths over the past week or so.

It dpends on whether they are using just the Hospital deaths, or the data that includes the Retirement homes.
Not sure all of the retirement homes have been tested.

edit : Seems they use Worldometer, that includes the retirement homes.
Also, i'd have to look up what a 7 day rolling average is.


edit2 : Statistical jargon. Too late (2.35am) for me to understand right now.

A rolling average calculation has one concept very different from a simple standard average calculation. First, a standard average is calculated by taking a set number of pieces of data, adding them together, and dividing the total by the number of pieces of data used, referred to as "n."

Doing the math using Worldometers figure, I get a rolling 7 day for France of 977 starting with April 8th's numbers and working backward. That would be April 9th's (the date the graph claims) rolling 7 day. If they were including WorldOmeter's April 9th total and taking it for tomorrow, then it would be even higher as today France posted another big day for deaths.

I've noticed a lot of variation, some bordering on flat out fudging numbers in graphs as well as a serious discrepancy between sites through this. (I've already mentioned, for example that Alaska is being counted as 7 deaths while only 4 of those deaths involved people who had been in Alaska at any point from contracting the virus to dying from it, the other 3 being Alaska residents who were out of state for the entire process... making me strongly suspect those 3 deaths are double counted and also appear on Washington and Oregon's total deaths as well). This is the type of stuff that drives me up a wall because numbers aren't that difficult. More people *should* be and *would* be questioning the numbers (in both directions, honestly) and the graphs if they understood basic statistical math.

a reply to: burdman30ott6

(I've already mentioned, for example that Alaska is being counted as 7 deaths while only 4 of those deaths involved people who had been in Alaska at any point from contracting the virus to dying from it, the other 3 being Alaska residents who were out of state for the entire process... making me strongly suspect those 3 deaths are double counted and also appear on Washington and Oregon's total deaths as well).

Just to add to this, one of those deaths is also counted as a case of C19 in his home town, where there is only 1 case recorded so far of the virus. But it has been listed as 2 cases, including his, which he was never here with the virus..

originally posted by: Arbitrageur
]Either something is wrong with your numbers or something is wrong with the article I linked saying 833 was the maximum as of 3 days ago.

Those are just hospital deaths. France apparently breaks their reports down between hospital deaths, nursing home deaths, and other deaths and that may be the cause of the discrepancy.
www.worldometers.info...
France had the following official numbers (total)
4/2- 1355 deaths
4/3- 1120
4/4- 1053
4/5- 518
4/6- 833
4/7- 1417
4/8- 541
4/9- 1341

originally posted by: Darkblade71
a reply to: burdman30ott6

(I've already mentioned, for example that Alaska is being counted as 7 deaths while only 4 of those deaths involved people who had been in Alaska at any point from contracting the virus to dying from it, the other 3 being Alaska residents who were out of state for the entire process... making me strongly suspect those 3 deaths are double counted and also appear on Washington and Oregon's total deaths as well).

Just to add to this, one of those deaths is also counted as a case of C19 in his home town, where there is only 1 case recorded so far of the virus. But it has been listed as 2 cases, including his, which he was never here with the virus..

The Petersberg guy. Yeah, he was in Washington in the hospital for heart surgery when he became infected, never left the facility afterward and went steadily downhill. I can't prove he's shown on the WA totals, but since it took them a solid 2 weeks before adding him to AK's numbers (after we'd already had an in-state death) and I didn't see any correction in WA's previous numbers, I think it is safe to assume he's double counted.

a reply to: burdman30ott6

I am pretty sure he was double counted too.

I think I am going to frame the fishing pole he gave me in his memory.

But yeah, double numbers.

a reply to: Darkblade71

Honor his memory by putting a bend in that pole every chance you get, man. Fish on! He was a popular guide so I'm betting he'd approve of that all the way.

a reply to: burdman30ott6

Yeah, I think I will.

So a small update on my island for the thread 1 official case that is travel related,
There has been around 65 tests, 7 or 8 still pending results, one positive,
and I just lost my assistant due to illness.
She has to get tested....

I work grocery and now I have been moved to mainly nights after the store closes, I go in, masked and gloved, and I cut meat for the next day, sanitize everything and leave. This virus has weirded out my job, but I still have one and I am grateful.

Alaskans are doing what we can to stop the spread as best we can.
So far it is working.

During today's US Press Conference, Dr. Brix said by statistical sampling, 20% to 22% of US pop is or has been infected with CV19. But noted that some rural areas may only have it 10%.

I imagine the doubling time is now lower than 2.7 days.

a reply to: Oleman

Wife says everyone will get it, many will make it, a few ( millions ) won't see a ...


There's a reason why testing is being slowed down. This stuff is serious.
I'm looking at Tokyo and surrounding areas to have an infection rate of 1 to 4000 cases a day. If my estimation of the 37 to 42 asymptomatic people have not been tested, well, the facts will be shown in my future post. We are just 3 days away from the 42 day period.
Ex. where I live , 3 cases held up for like 4 weeks, now as of yesterday 17 . 12 new cases in one day. What's the math of that for 30 days ?

www.nbcnewyork.com...


Good news

New York saw its daily death toll spike to a new record Thursday for the third straight day, while New York City's coronavirus toll surged well past 5,000 — more than the number killed on 9/11. The widely cited Gates Foundation-funded IHME model projects New York's daily death rate to decrease going forward; it has sharply lowered its ultimate projections for fatalities in the state.

Bad news

Cuomo has said the longer people stay on ventilators, the more unlikely they are to ever come off them. Experts say up to 50 percent of patients with severe respiratory distress die while on the machines. The link is so compelling that some doctors are trying to move away from using them when they can.

Some Doctors Moving Away From Ventilators for Virus Patients, Citing Death Rate


As health officials around the world push to get more ventilators to treat coronavirus patients, some doctors are moving away from using the breathing machines when they can.

The reason: Some hospitals have reported unusually high death rates for coronavirus patients on ventilators, and some doctors worry that the machines could be harming certain patients.

The evolving treatments highlight the fact that doctors are still learning the best way to manage a virus that emerged only months ago. They are relying on anecdotal, real-time data amid a crush of patients and shortages of basic supplies.

Mechanical ventilators push oxygen into patients whose lungs are failing. Using the machines involves sedating a patient and sticking a tube into the throat. Deaths in such sick patients are common, no matter the reason they need the breathing help.

www.nbcnewyork.com...

originally posted by: Oleman
During today's US Press Conference, Dr. Brix said by statistical sampling, 20% to 22% of US pop is or has been infected with CV19. But noted that some rural areas may only have it 10%.

I imagine the doubling time is now lower than 2.7 days.

So, 20% of the US population is what, something in the ballpark of 60 million?

originally posted by: MonkeyBalls2
Numbers update for the America's, and USA States :

www.worldometers.info...

I suspected the number of infections was way over 465,000, but I didn't realize it would be ~60 million already.

a reply to: Chance321

Approximately a third of all initial cases had no contact with the wet market:

By Jan 2, 2020, 41 admitted hospital patients were identified as laboratory-confirmed 2019-nCoV infection in Wuhan.
...
27 (66%) patients had direct exposure to Huanan seafood market (figure 1B). Market exposure was similar between the patients with ICU care (nine [69%]) and those with non-ICU care (18 [64%]). The symptom onset date of the first patient identified was Dec 1, 2019. None of his family members developed fever or any respiratory symptoms. No epidemiological link was found between the first patient and later cases.

emphasis mine

That leaves 13 patients whom had no contact with the wet Market said to have been the source of the infection.

Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China - The Lancet

off topic

originally posted by: Byrd
80 employees have tested positive for COVID-19 at Smithfield Foods

ARCGis gives the following stats for Sioux Falls (where Smithfield is located)

Minnehaha, South Dakota, US
Confirmed: 228
Deaths: 2

Doesn't seem too surprising to me, since Smithfield Foods and China seem to have some pretty close ties together.

www.reuters.com...